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Everything posted by Warning Track Power
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Hmmm. The biggest "fish" is Hanley Ramirez. He is having a very mediocre season and we all know the Marlins are cash strapped and his salary goes up to $15 million next year. I presume you mean Reyes, but it got me to thinking. I just don't see us having anything close to the pieces needed to land a Reyes or Hanley, save including Prince. I don't think a Gamel/Thornburg/Hart would get them, nor do I think it would be a smart move for the Brewers given that Reyes is likely to leave after the season. Maybe it would be a good deal for Hanley as he is signed long term, but who plays RF for the rest of the season and who plays RF and 1B in 2012? It sure looks nice with Morgan/Hanley/Braun/Weeks but after Lucroy it gets real dicey at 1B, 3B, RF.
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I like the idea of acquiring Headley and Bartlett as the first option to upgrade the 3B and SS spots, but I would definitely welcome the acquisition of both Furcal and Carroll as a fall back. Furcal becomes the starter at SS and Carroll becomes Craig Counsell for this year and for the next few seasons after 2011 when CC retires. My ideal has us making two separate deals, acquiring Headley and Bartlett, and then acquiring Carroll to back them up. While upgrading the O and getting more production is important, upgrading the defense in those two spots is critical.
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Seeing that the Padres will most definitely be sellers and DM is likely looking everywhere to upgrade our SS and 3B holes, I think we could definitely match up with them for Chase Headley and Jason Bartlett. Bartlett has been discussed in multiple threads, so I won't focus on him too much. Headley would seem to be a logical choice to go after in an expanded deal. He hits from both sides of the plate, plays very good defense and carries a career line of .270/.344/.392 while playing at Petco. Additionally, he draws walks at a decent rate. Headley can be a free agent after 2014 so he's right in the middle of his arbitration eligible years. I know some of you dislike Bartlett and his contract, but I think he's a decent enough option to replace YuBet if we can upgrade 3B for the forseeable future with Headley. So what will it take to get this deal done? I'm not 100% sure but with the Padres, its going to be about offense. The Brewers could offer McGehee in a cost cutting move for the Padres, but judging by the fact that he is arbitration eligible as well I'm not sure this would equate to a discount despite his terrible 2011. They could offer YuBet and offer to pay his salary for the rest of the season and pass along his buyout so the Padres could have an "SS" to play for the remainder of 2011 for free. But Jed Hoyer wouldn't likely bite at that poison apple. Despite this, I think we could theoretically center a deal around propsects with one or both included in the deal. I'd say the Brewers started with an offer of blocked, MLB-ready type prospects. I really like Eric Farris but it seems like he is a 2B and can't be a utility IF. So I'd start with him. Then I would move to corner OF. Brendan Katin is 28 and hasn't seen MLB. He has some pop and is blocked by Braun and Hart. I include him while I remain fearful they hold out for Caleb Gindl. Then I'd offer them a choice of YuBet and/or McGehee. If they want both, they can have them. If they want one, take them. But they have to take one. I love Casey and wish he could stay, but I think he'd be gone with the Padres hoping for a turnaround in SD. Padres take an underperforming former good player like McGehee and hope for a turnaround plus he is still relatively cheap. From the Padres end, they also receive the salary relief from getting out of Bartlett's deal. Like I said, I have no clue what it would take or even if Headley is available, but a Headley/Bartlett for McGehee/Farris/Katin may work for both clubs. Even if the Brewers threw in a low Minors prospect as well. The Padres get younger for the future with decent prospects and salary relief from Bartlett's deal, as well as the hope that McGehee is not a total lost cause. The Brewers immediately insert those guys into the lineup and begin to look a lot more balanced. Plus I like Headley in the #2 spot in the order. After this deal, I would pencil in a: Morgan/Headley/Braun/Fielder/Weeks/Hart/Lucroy/Bartlett lineup that is so much better than tonight's lineup in Arizona.
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We're about 2 weeks away from the trade deadline and we have exhausted the names of the players who may or may not be available for the Brewers to acquire. Reyes, Hardy, Furcal, Bartlett, Ryan....and on and on and on. Now that we are pushing up against the deadline, I am curious as to what you guys all believe is going to happen realistically. Option A - Given it is an all in season, are you expecting DM to make a big splash ala Reyes or Hardy? Option B - Are you expecting a high risk, high reward type deal which would bring in an injury prone Furcal? Option C - Do you think DM will worry more about shoring up the D and bringing in a Ryan or Jack Wilson? Option D - Or does DM go the change of scenery route and hope a Jason Bartlett revives his TB or Minnesota days? In my opinion, the most realistic scenario I see playing out for the Brewers before the deadline is Option B or D. While I would absolutely prefer to get JJ back, I think that the most likely scenario that will play out for the Brewers will either be Furcal or Bartlett. Furcal could bring everything that a JJ would bring, and maybe more, if he stays healthy. It's a big if but one that likely won't cost to much to gamble on propsect-wise. Realistically, we could always fall back on YuBet if he were to get hurt (a terrible option I know). Additionally, Furcal will likely cost significantly less than JJ. Similarly, Bartlett who is having a very down year will likely not be too expensive for the Brewers to acquire. Plus he is under contract for 2012. He brings more speed to the lineup, which RR will love, and would likely cost us a minor league bat as the Padres are always looking for hitting in Petco. I am a little surprised by his dWAR over his career being -0.9 but I think we would gladly welcome his abilities givent he alternatives and the cost to acquire them. So there it is. I expect Furcal, a high risk high reward player, or Bartlett, a change of scenery type player, to be playing SS for the Crew in August. What are your realistic expectations?
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100% agreed. I use them interchangeably only because it seems like they, + Rogers, are generally considered to be our top pitching prospects not named Thornburg. Had Rogers not been hurt I would have given you a Peralta/Rivas/Rogers slash. That is the only reason I had linked them interchangeably.
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Okay, well I'd imagine the O's would want Peralta/Thornburg to start, then likely a hitter with some upside ala Hunter Morris to keep them on the phone. I don't believe this. From my knowledge of the O's system, pitching is their real strength. I think that a package comprised of hitting is the most likely target. Yes, I proposed Green + Rivas/Peralta, but I think they are more apt to go after whatever hitting prospects they deem most attractive to them. I for one would give them any combination of hitting prospects in the minors right now for JJ. I don't know of any real blue chippers in the minors right now that I would deem untouchable, plus we seem relatively set at the MLB level in terms of everyday players for at least the next 3 seasons with Gamel filling Prince's role, giving us the luxury of letting them pick. The only hole potentially may be 3B depending on how McGehee rebounds, but I feel comfortable moving forward in CF with Gomez if we can acquire a decent hitting SS like JJ. Whether the O's deem our hitting prospects enough to warrant possibly passing on 2 1st round picks is definitely debatable. I would still feel comfortable giving the O's a package of Green, Morris, Peralta/Rivas. I think we could be that good with JJ at SS.
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I wouldn't (and I don't know if that would even be enough from the O's side). Hardy would be a rental, has a hard time staying healthy, and I wouldn't want to pay what it would cost to resign him. And Reynolds hasn't been a very good defender, strikes out way too much for my taste (even if K's are overrated by some, 200 is a ton), and barely hits .220. I really like Green and think he can be a solid contributor at 3rd. We'll also need our pitching prospects if we can't resign Marcum and/or Greinke. And if we want to resign Hardy, at least one of them (if not both) wouldn't be resigned. Respectfully, I disagree about a few things. Hardy would not be a rental. The Brewers have zero viable internal candidates to play SS in 2012 or 2013. Hardy would be re-signed to a multi-year deal and I speculate it would be approximately 3 year $21-$24MM ($7-$8MM/AAV), a price worth paying given we have Gamel, McGehee and Lucroy in the everyday lineup making close to league minimum. Secondly, a re-signed JJ doesn't inhibit our ability to re-sign a Greinke or Marcum. Betancourt and Hawkins salary come off the books at the end of the year and they make $8MM combined in 2011. Plus Betancourt's buyout is paid by the Royals IIRC. I'd gladly give all those dollars straight to JJ. This should allow for the lack of Prince's $15.5MM to be targeted for Greinke/Marcum. Plus Wolf's salary is off the books after 2012, when Marcum and Greinke extensions would begin. I do agree though about Reynolds. I have zero interest. He'd be the Strikeout King of the Midwest. He reminds of Betancourt, similar glove with more power and the ability to draw a walk, but very likely a worse average. I'd gladly give up Green + one of Peralta/Rivas for JJ. I'd even do McGehee + Peralta/Rivas for JJ and call up Green to play 3B. (I'd probably trade for a backup plan at 3B like Casey Blake as insurance in that case though)
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I think you may be the only one. Casey has at least had two good offensive seasons for us to fall back on to pin hopes on a turnaround. Can we say that YuBet has ever had a "good" season?
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Today in the Baltimore Sun Blog...5th comment down in the article: Jeff, Two questions. Sunday it was reported that the Orioles and JJ Hardy hoped to make progress on a new contract during the All Star break. Are there any new developments to report? I think the Orioles need to keep him! What is your opinion on the odds McPhail will be in his current position with the Orioles in 2012? Can the team do better or do all good baseball men stay away from the Orioles because of their ownership? ............................................................................................... Jeff Z's reply: I checked into the Hardy deal yesterday and was told that there was nothing new to report. As for MacPhail, it's my gut feeling that he won't be back in his current capacity next season. There are only so many GM jobs available so I'm sure there would be plenty of interest in the position. Obviously, John Hart is the name you hear most, and he has a very good relationship with Showalter.
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In a semi-realistic world, the only way we would have a big enough chip to deal for Wright is by moving Fielder. I doubt a package starting with Thornburg and Gamel would even be enough for the Mets to move Wright. I would love having a Weeks-Braun-Wright combo for the next 5 years, but it's just not going to happen.
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Understood asnd your point is well taken about Spring Training. Currently Gomez's OBP is about 50 points higher than his AVG though. Assuming he managed to get to that .260 mark, a mark not totally out of the realm given he hit .258 in 2008 and .247 in 2010, with a .310 OBP would be more than tolerable given his glove. Sometimes it clicks for certain guys (see Jose Bautista). I was hoping Carlos may have had a little of that magic in him as well in 2011.
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Interesting...I emailed Haudricourt about JJ coming back to Milwaukee and he said he didn't see it happening. When I followed up with a question about the reason and if any lingering bad blood between JJ and Melvin would be the issue preventing this, he answered the main reason he didn't see it was because of what the O's want in return. While this doesn't rule out bad blood between the two, I think that provides some insight that most of us don't have about the situation. Sounds like Melvin will at least entertain the idea of a JJ return, which is a start.
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RR had Gomez batting 2nd for the first few months (and still does when he starts!). RR also reiterated on numerous occasions that Gomez really impressed him during spring training. I agree that you should always take public praise of a player by his manager with a grain of salt but in this case, RR "saw SOMETHING... and so did Dale!" He really believed that Gomez had magically turned into a competent hitter.I fell into this trap as well. Gomez did look outstanding in spring and I thought it was at least possible for him to turn his raw talents into a becoming a .260/.320 hitter in 2011. I can't fault RR for this. I CAN fault him for continually batting Gomez 2nd though. Gomez should be hittting 8th whenever he starts.
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I agree with you other points except these. Bell could be a difference maker this season for the Cards between making the playoffs and missing the playoffs. I don't think you could put Rasmus in this category yet. Additionally, there is no guarantee that Bell will make it to FA. With this year maybe being Pujols last season in StL and Berkman playing likes its 2005, this might be StL's year to go all in as well.
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I was high on the O's...and then the season began. I legitimately believed they may be able to sneak their way into a 85ish win season with comeback years from Lee, Guerrero and yes, Hardy. Having seen them play 90ish games now, I think it is safe to say they are a few years of seasoning for their SP away from contending. Lee and Guerrero will need to be replaced. Wieters, Markakis and Adam Jones are a nice core. JJ would fit in that core, but I don't think their SP will be truly able to compete until 2013 or 2014 or the very end of a likely JJ extension when his value will undoubtedly be much lower. They have multiple prospects at SS, which makes re-signing JJ a meh move to me. It is a more status quo move and status quo isn't good enough to beat the Yankees or Red Sox. JJ is a tradeable commodity and I would look to deal him for multiple MLB ready position players to be ready to compete in 2013 or 2014 when their SP is starting to become really good.
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They're not trading Rasmus in exchange for renting Heath Bell and a replacement OF they don't need. If Rasmus is going to be traded it's going to be for an impact player who can be controlled past this year. Probably a starter like Shields or Ubaldo.FWIW, I seriously doubt Bell would be a rental in StL. I think they would try to (and likely) extend him as soon as he arrived with a fair market deal for closers. As for Shields and Ubaldo, I would want a lot more than Rasmus for either of them but maybe I am not as high on Rasmus as you are.
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Thinking about JJ... An Orioles extension really makes zero sense to me unless it is being done to raise his value even more before being dealt. I know this sounds a little backwards for the O's and especially JJ to do this but put yourself in the O's shoes. Wouldn't a re-signed JJ be worth more on the market than a FA-to-be JJ? Wouldn't we offer less than what we would if he was signed for the next 2 years after this? As for JJ, wouldn't he want to be signed long term and have a limited no trade clause to sort of determine and dictate where he could end up? I'm really beginning to think the JJ-O's "extension" talk is real posturing (hoping) before he is going to be dealt.
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I could see the Padres doing something like Bell + a replacement OF (Venable) for Rasmus. In Petco having 2 CF would be beneficial. Throwing Maybin in CF and Rasmus in RF would make for a fast OF in that cavern. FWIW, I think the Cards may be desperate enough to make a deal like this.
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Shortstops available
Warning Track Power replied to DHonks's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Most definitely agreed. I don't think we have what it takes to land Reyes and I think HanRam would take even more to get given he is under contract. It was merely speculative on my part based on my belief that DM is searching all over for SS and we may end up with someone that wasn't on any of our radars, like a Hanley or Stephen Drew.

