Warning Track Power

10 years $140 million for Will Smith. William Contreras is 26 now. A 10 year deal would take him to his mid-30s. An AAV of $14m a year seems pretty reasonable for a catcher who should just be hitting his prime, plus that bat plays at DH. Comparatively, Smith has a career of .264/.359/.844 in 1994 PA, whereas Contreras has a.276/.353/.818 in 1196 PA. I know Quero is coming but Contreras is here and has already produced at an all star level. I’d be quite happy with extending Contreras at this level. I’m curious about what others think of this as a concept.

I will irrationally angry if the Brewers deal Frelick. He is the exact type of hitter that they have not had in Milwaukee since…prime Cirillo? I see Frelick as a guy who has .320/.380 with 40-50 2B, 10 3B, 30 SB potential from the lead off spot (yes I know Yelich has 2 batting titles, but different type of hitter) if he reaches his ceiling. Build the entire team out of Frelick and Tyler Black type hitters (high AVG/high OBP). Deal Mitchell or Wiemer before Frelick.

DFA this guy. He’s been bad all year. Smoke and garbage doesn’t last forever

This is where I am as well. Plug TA into 2B and let Turang get some more run at SS for when Adames is either dealt or walks in free agency. Yelich, Frelick, Wiemer and Chourio aren’t going anywhere…which unfortunately might mean Mitchell is available. I’d rather deal a Zamora type but if I’m the White Sox I’m holding out for one of Black, Quero or Mitchell. Hopefully Arnold has some of that William Contreras trade magic in him to limit the return to the White Sox.

Based on Baseball Reference: Pre-2017: Diaz: Baseball America #93, MLB.com #65, Baseball Prospectus #59 Harrison: Not ranked Brinson: BA #27, MLB.com #18, Baseball Prospectus #12 Pre-2018: Diaz: Not ranked Harrison: BA #75, MLB.com #71, Baseball Prospectus #49 Brinson: BA #18, MLB.com #27, Baseball Prosepctus #18 I think you can say legit three Top 100 prospects and a interesting pitching prospect for Yelich. Marlins had to feel good about the return at the time. Can’t fault it at all.

Precisely. If the Brewers were offered the current day equivalent of Brinson, Harrison, Diaz and Yamamoto for Hader, Hader would be on the next flight out of Milwaukee. For fun, what would the equivalent of that actually be from SD? Have to be something like Luis Campusano, Robert Hassell, Ryan Weathers, and a lottery ticket?

This is unfortunate. You always want to win a trade and not regret the pieces you traded away but the Brewers got a franchise icon for 4 guys who look like they may AAAA players. While I definitely thought Harrison and Yamamoto were not likely to be much at the MLB level (Harrison struck out too much and Yamamoto ceiling was a #4 or #5), Brinson and Diaz I thought were going to be Mike Cameron and Rickie Weeks types. It's not over but it's not looking likely.

Diaz was that guy for me. Harrison and Brinson became no issue for me when Cain was signed because Yelich and Cain were going to be in the OF for the next 5 years. Lest we forget in 2016, Diaz had 20 HR and 11 SB and a slash of .264/.358/.827 in Appleton. While the AVG and power dropped slightly in Carolina, he skyrocketed in 2019 at New Orleans with a .305/.395/.973 line with 26 HR. It sure seemed like he was going to be an OBP machine with power ala Rickie Weeks. He's only going to be 25 this season so the potential is still there, but yeah the Brewers quite obviously won this deal...by a lot.

I know not everyone has the Athletic but the article below analyzes the Brewers acquisition of Pomeranz and Black: https://theathletic.com/1110345/2019/08/01/drew-pomeranzs-addition-gives-brewers-valuable-flexibility-in-bullpen/ The most interesting thing I found though was in the comment section, Robert Murray's explanation for calling the trade "significant": Good enough for me.

I will tell you what a needle mover is...To me it's a player or players that you acquire, that almost EVERYONE in baseball or associated with baseball in anyway can clearly see by acquiring that player you made your team better for a pennant race, or into the postseason. They are a proven commodity, very consistent in what they do and will make an impact down the stretch...some examples of this...when the Brewers acquired CC Sabathia=HUGE needle mover...do they make the playoffs without him?? Absolutely NOT. When they acquired Zach Greinke=HUGE needle mover. When those two took the mound every night, you felt like you had a legitimate chance to win every night they pitched. You knew they were VERY unlikely to get shelled(it happens to everyone). Examples this year...Greinke to the Stros...that pretty much locks them in as the clear American league favorites to at least get to the World Series, and now with that rotation can go head to head with the Dodgers, easily. Shane Greene to the Braves...model of consistency, night in night out when he closes. he comes in, almost always he will finish it out...=Needle movers. What the Brewers did today are NOT needle moving moves...they can be I guess, but..you hope/wish/cross your fingers that it can. Not enough of an impact for it to be a CLEAR upgrade for anything. especially the rotation. so REALISTICALLY, what did you want the Brewers to do today? While I was initially disappointed in this trade (and I still don't necessarily love it), it has become crystal clear that the prices on pitching was astronomical and this was about the extent of what the Brewers could do with their system. Did you see what the Astros gave up for Greinke? And they are STILL having to pay him a significant amount of his contract. Short of dealing Hiura, the Brewers simply weren't going to be able to acquire that top end pitcher. Like I have said previously, I blame the click-baiting of Robert Murray that got all of our hopes up by saying Dubon was being traded in a "significant" deal. I think any one of us would assume a writer calling a "significant" deal for players of Pomeranz, Black and Dubon is the epitome of bad journalism. This one tweet alone got me emotionally twisted for this deal as I automatically assumed the deal would include actual significant pieces like Bumgarner or Smith, as well as actual significant pieces (Ray, Turang, Grisham, etc...) being included on the Brewers end.

Agreed. Saying an agreement is close would've been fine. We all still may hate the trade but his reporting got our hopes up for something much more.

This deadline is shaping up to be one of the worst in memory. I would have rather the Brewers stand pat then make that deal. Having said that, Murray calling it "significant" is a joke. Bad reporting in my opinion. Could have left it as "in agreement"

Pomeranz?!?!

Not MadBum or Will Smith...Murray initial report of "significant" isn't holding up.

To call it significant, it can't just be Will Smith. This has to be an SP.

Bumgarner and Will Smith?

...and now the MVP. Amazing.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=harris000mon I want the Marlins to be made whole because of how great Yelich has been for us but man...215 strikeouts!

I always thought of Brinson's ceiling being Mike Cameron, an elite CF who would hit around .250 with 20-25 HR and 20-25 SB. I will be rooting for him from a distance as Christian Yelich is worth parting with the potential of a Mike Cameron, who ironically I see as Monte Harrison's ceiling as well. Will definitely be pulling for the Marlins in the future if their OF consists of Harrison and Brinson.

Crazy stat... In 26 ABs, Yelich has more doubles (2), HR (1) and RBI (5) than Brinson, Harrison and Diaz combined in 116 ABs (1 double, 0 HR, 2 RBI).

A 4 WAR player for the next 5 years? Wow!

This trade tells me that the Brewers are confident in their ability to sign an SP. They gave up such a large amount of prospect capital, they must have something else brewing on the FA market. Perhaps this is why Darvish was asking questions about the Brewers long term financial situation?