Oxy
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Everything posted by Oxy
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With two outs, this is the way it should be. Even if we get thrown out half the time, the odds of scoring are STILL way way better than sitting at 3rd and hoping to get hit in. -
I would guess that Loe is pitching the ninth. Axford has pitched four of the last 5 days, so getting a day off makes sense, even with the off day tomorrow; as then he'll be well rested for what will likely be a low scoring series against the Giants. If a guy or two gets on and we need a K, perhaps Axford gets warmed up. If this is the case, the double switch makes perfect sense.
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Yuniesky Betancourt: What value does he bring to the team? (part 2)
Oxy replied to Oxy's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Somewhat lost in this discussion is the advantages of having a bench that is versatile enough to be able to use different players and their different strengths to pinch hit in certain situations when making contact is very important or in situations where a 3TO player is advantageous. Over the course of a season, wOBA does a very good job of determining who should be getting the most time overall and who should be starting and getting the most at bats because before the game starts you can't predict what situation a player will be hitting in. However, your bench is different. A manager does control when he gets to use a pinch hitter or pinch runner, thus some of the variables can be controlled. Almost by definition, all bench players are going to have deficiencies in their game, but the idea is to have enough versatility in your bench to be able to pick and shoose the right situations in order to hide their weaknesses and maximize their strengths. -
Knowing Zack, that might be the highlight of the season for him. It also might win the game for him today.
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I do think he is throwing too many strikes, at least the second time through the order. I like challenging guys right out of the gate, because a lot of teams/players haven't seen Greinke and want to take some pitches in order to get their timing down and feel comfortable with his delivery, etc. The second and third time through the order I think he should mix it up a bit. Of course, even better still would be to mix things up from start to start and not have a consistent scouting report.
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His results have been a complete bust. All his peripheral stats (even this year) point to him being an excellent pitcher. 3 run homers instead of solo shots and 4 hits in a row instead of scattering them over 4 innings, etc. I think his luck will even out and he'll be a stud.
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It's really satisfying to score a run after a leadoff double despite having nobody get on-base the rest of the inning. The opposite is just so demoralizing. That is how teams out-perform their pythagorean W-L record. Now whether or not it's just lucky when that happens or if it's a trait that a team can cultivate is the stuff that keeps message boards alive.
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Love Weeks getting to third there. I assume it was pretty heads up to tag up on a line drive (from Provus' call) rather than play half way.
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Like April 2012 http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif You are quite shortsighted. Every team starts off with a .000 winning percentage, so I was thinking more like April 2015 or 2016. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
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Boy, a 10-6 stretch over these 16 games would now be awfully disappointing. So many peaks and valleys to this season already, and we aren't even out of May! Hopefully the next time this team sees .500 is far, far in the future.
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Well, it's not a "feeling" akin to preferring frosted flakes to corn flakes, but it IS purely based on observation of each player over the years, and yes, under very limited at bats. I'm sure that I could go to baseball-reference or fangraphs or somewhere else and find some stats that would marginally support my observations, and there are probably other stats that would marginally refute my observations, but I highly doubt that enough good data exists to add enough weight one way or the other to really say whether I am objectively correct or not. In the absence of such stats, I will continue to hold my opinions based on my observations, and you are free to hold other opinions. I am very open to the possibility that I am wrong and that my eyes deceive me; it wouldn't be the first time.
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As I said, against good pitchers, yes, I would be more comfortable with Kotsay at the plate late in the game when a single or making contact is very important (RISP, guy on third less than 2 outs). If a home run would be vastly more beneficial (of course it will always be more beneficial, but not necessarily along with the risk of King/ double plays/etc) then of course I'd rather see Branyan up there.
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Branyan is another mistake hitter, which the Brewers don't need. He has a good eye, so he doesn't swing at balls, but he rarely makes contact on good pitches on the corners, either. Thus, when in late inning situations against relievers he isn't really the best option except against guys who have poor command. I feel more comfortable with Kotsay up at the plate if we need a hitter to get on base against a tough pitcher. Obviously if we need a homer Branyan would be the better option.
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Roenicke wants me to think he's an idiot (Kotsay in CF)
Oxy replied to endaround's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I'm not a huge fan of WAR, but if somebody is going to use it I think they better use the decimals; otherwise you have to make arbitrary cut-off points in between great/good/average/etc. which will STILL be based on some number but could totally benefit the perception of some guys and hurt other guys when they are on the borderline of the cut-off point. Much easier to just use the raw number and let people interpret it how they want instead of lumping players into tiers and slapping inappropriate labels on those tiers. -
The thread about the outfielders and Nick Bucci got me thinking about how often guys are non-prospects in the minor leagues and then turn out to be average to above average MLB players; or guys who were middling prospects who turned out to be perennial All-Stars. This might not be a very popular thread around here because there seem to be a lot of scouts, friends of scouts, and people you fancy themselves as scouts around here, and this will basically be a discussion about when they were wrong. Casey McGehee and Jaime Garcia are a couple of recent examples that I can think of, but I'm sure there are a lot more over the past 10 years or so. Keep in mind that I'm not as interested in guys who were drafted low and then had success in the minors, but guys who were just sort of silently working their way through the system without much hype and then were given a chance one year and made the most of it.
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I'm not a guru, so I'll just throw wild uneducated opinion out there: One of these guys will become a major league regular for a couple of years, adding value slightly above replacement level and hold on as a 4th OF type for a couple more years. One of these guys will make a club as a 4th OF type for a couple years. One of these guys will have a cup of coffee in The Show. One of these guys will get hurt and never really recover, and two of these guys will wash out or hold on as AAAA players for a few years. As far as who does what, I have no idea. I've never seen any of them play, and any opinion I have is solely based on the opinion of others from this site and a few blurbs from BA or other sites on the internet. Is there any reason to believe that these guys will be better than Brandon Boggs, Jeremy Reed, Chris Dickerson, Erick Almonte, Jason Bourgeois, Cole Gillespie, Darren Ford, Dave Krynzel, random waiver wire pickup? I will say that it looks like Michael Brantley is turning into a player for Cleveland. I'll be happy if we can get Brady Clark level of production out of any of them, though.
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I'm not so sure that Braun was going on contact there. I think he hesitated after it was hit, saw that the ball wasn't hit all that hard and the D wasn't playing up and decided to go for it. It was still a close play and he was arguably safe. Had he been going on contact I think he is safe by a mile and the throw isn't even made. That said, I don't think the contact play should be on when there are 0 outs, unless the D is obviously playing back and giving up the run, or the pitcher/Gomez is on deck.
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Mediocre block, nice throw by Lucroy.
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Gomez better be in the game on the double switch next inning.
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Kotsay is a professional hitter. He is the exact opposite baseball player from Carlos Gomez.
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Yuni keeps the no-hitter intact!
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You can only see so much in Spring Training. Everybody on the team has different instincts, speed, acceleration, and angles around the bases, so there isn't really a set "break even" point that works for everybody at all times. As Ron alluded to earlier and Backupcatchers mentioned, eventually being aggressive on the bases is going to lead to more runs as he and the players learn when to be aggressive and when to hold up. However, it's very difficult to know where that line is until you cross it. Carlos Gomez has crossed the line. Many times. There have been a few too many guys thrown out by 10 feet at home plate. Even the decision making in those situations should be malleable based on score, quality of the defense, and quality of the upcoming hitters though.
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I totally agree. I thought it was a very entertaining game. It would have helped had the strike zone not been ridiculous though.
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Not sure if walking Fielder AND McGehee is good or bad for the Crew...
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Alright Casey. He tends to do well in situations like these, or so it seems.
