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xisxisxis

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Everything posted by xisxisxis

  1. Especially when you consider so much of the seating at Miller Park still gives you great views of the field. I've only been to MP a few times, but I've walked around the entire stadium looking at perspective from each part and the sitelines are great. So there's no reason you can't economize in the lower priced seats. Being in LA I've been to a few games at Dodger stadium. Behind home-plate boxes was great, 1st base in the less expensive seats less great, upper deck - no comparison to the worst seat in Miller Park. Sure Dodger Stadium is pretty old. The point is not that Dodger stadium is old, but that Miller Park was designed to have great viewing from almost every location. Take advantage of that and save money by choosing the cheaper seats.
  2. There's nothing wrong with the 2017 version of Sogard either, but that's a reserve player not a starter. I think we (I include myself) in being too tough on Sogard for 2018. He wasn't the one penciling in himself as a starter while he clearly was BELOW replacement level. It was CC who insisted he could play his way out of his funk - guess what? he couldn't. While I am mostly ambivalent to CC, he's had a history now of driving 2 players from the team who have gone on to have >7 WAR of combined in production the next season - Villar and Sogard (yes, CC's choice of playing time was a big factor in Sogard being dispatched in 2018). Maybe it's time for CC to do a little self-reflection on his role and how he favors players and doesn't get the best out of some (who clearly can be productive without his management).
  3. There's nothing wrong with the 2017 version of Sogard either, but that's a reserve player not a starter. I think we (I include myself) in being too tough on Sogard for 2018. He wasn't the one penciling in himself as a starter while he clearly was BELOW replacement level. It was CC who insisted he could play his way out of his funk - guess what? he couldn't. While I am mostly ambivalent to CC, he's had a history now of driving 2 players from the team who have gone on to have >7 WAR of combined in production the next season - Villar and Sogard (yes, CC's choice of playing time was a big factor in Sogard being dispatched in 2018). Maybe it's time for CC to do a little self-reflection on his role and how he favors players and doesn't get the best out of some (who clearly can be productive without his management).
  4. I forgot about that old GM "promise" thing... I think the Brewers should ship a low-level prospect to the Mets for Jed Lowrie. He has had big years following years he missed significant playing time. All we take on is the salary, which we have room. While I would ultimately prefer Kyle Seger, I am pretty sure there will be better offers from the Braves, Dodgers, or Nats (whomever loses out on Donaldson) than the Brewers can offer (since the Mariners are looking for prospects and not discards - i.e. Arcia).
  5. I forgot about that old GM "promise" thing... I think the Brewers should ship a low-level prospect to the Mets for Jed Lowrie. He has had big years following years he missed significant playing time. All we take on is the salary, which we have room. While I would ultimately prefer Kyle Seger, I am pretty sure there will be better offers from the Braves, Dodgers, or Nats (whomever loses out on Donaldson) than the Brewers can offer (since the Mariners are looking for prospects and not discards - i.e. Arcia).
  6. Well the Steamer fWAR projections for 2020 are clearly pointing to the better pitcher: Brett Anderson 1.7 Julio Teheran 0.5 Must be a worldwide plot to discredit people with names close to "Tehran"....
  7. Brewers got a better pitcher in Brett Anderson for less. Another clear win for Stearns. Given what the Angels trotted out last season it's an upgrade for them.
  8. Joseph, Joseph, Joseph, you don't look at the trend, you focus in on 3.55 then add the miracle Miller Park bump and you got 5 fWAR. I can share the calculation with you, but it was developed by others...
  9. I am 99% sure it was mentioned in an article on mlb.com
  10. I have us at $103m spent. Anybody's guess how much is "available". Based on last year, another $25m or so. But no guarantee they open with a payroll as big as last year. Lineup will be something like Cain - CF Yelich - RF Hiura - 2b Smoak - 1b Garcia/Braun - LF Narvaez - C Urias - 3b Arcia - SS Braun will play some 1b as well. If we sign a 3b or Healy wins a job, Urias probably moves to SS. Sogard is available to fill in at 3b/2b/ss. I think it will be a pretty straight platoon. It's clear from 3 years of data with the Blue Jays that Smoak loses most of his power batting right handed. So Braun will get his 115 starts in LF/1B with Garcia taking the rest in the OF (it makes sense to have Garcia in RF with Yelich in LF when they both start). DH games will provide additional PA to go around the Smoak/Braun/Garcia group plus rest and unfortunately the invariable injury. I'd feel a lot better about this team with a reasonable update at 3B.
  11. I agree it's highly unlikely Thames was going to entertain a return at lower money. It was just a poor decision in the first place to let him go, but hey we can always make up the 1.5 WAR drop we are likely to see with Smoak from Sogard... The Brewers saved $2.5 million and wound up with a player who has a better bat and glove than Thames. Defense: 2017-2019 Thames 1855 innings at 1B = -5 DRS 2018-2019 Smoak 1899 innings at 1B = -6 DRS UZR and Range both trending down for Smoak... yeah clearly *better*... Smoak WAS a very good defender at 1B, Justin Smoak circa 2020 is not. And for offense... Check out the trendlines. Thames has been a very consistent 2 fWAR/500PA player the last 3 years for the Brewers. If you follow Smoak's trendline he'll make 2018 Sogard look better. Sure, it's unlikely that Smoak will fall off that cliff, but once again Brewer goggles distort any facts into the rosey brewer view that he will absolutely bounceback and produce like previous years... And of course if we ignore all the data, Grandal isn't that good and neither was Davies or Anderson or Moustakis or _______ (former Brewer) compared to the ________ we just picked up. Because WAR and other stats just fail the Brewer fan eye test...
  12. I agree it's highly unlikely Thames was going to entertain a return at lower money. It was just a poor decision in the first place to let him go, but hey we can always make up the 1.5 WAR drop we are likely to see with Smoak from Sogard...
  13. I don't mind limited dumpster diving, but stop doing it behind Goodwill.... I don't care if it's for league minimum salary, we already have an ARCIA...
  14. I think the opposite seems to be true around here. Everyone seems to say "let's see... how can I find a way to convince myself that this is a really, brilliant move?" See Anderson, Brett. Maybe we could all agree that there are a SMALL number of posters that believe every move by the Brewers is bad and a SMALL number of posters that believe every move by the Brewers is good. The rest of us are doing our best based on our knowledge and understanding to do a reasonable job of expressing our opinion as to the value/benefit of the trade/deal and leave it at that. These gross generalizations in both directions just lead to so many posts of people shouting past each other...
  15. I think a package including Arcia for Seager is probably in the works with the hangup the additional components (Corey Ray?) and cash coming back to MKE. Seager's 3rd year option vests upon a trade so he's a tad expensive. I think he might be the best defensive 3B still out there so that's a definite advantage. Three years (year 32-34 seasons) isn't too long of a stretch for performance decline. We could give them back Freddy. The chances he develops another pitch are about the same as Arcia breaking out... I'd imagine they want to keep giving JP Crawford some chances. He's probably in the same category as Arcia as a guy that once had some cachet as a prospect but is sputtering at the big league level. Difference being that Crawford has more time until his arbitration hits and may align with their window of 2+ years from now. I'm not saying Arcia wouldn't be a good option for them to try out a bit but his ceiling seems low AND even if he turns things around, his control is up right when the Mariners want to get back to trying to contend. I don't know Crawford very well, but thought they would move him to 3B if they dealt Seager and got another SS, but he may not be good enough for 3B (only has played about 15% of his time at 3B in his career). While I agree about the Mariners window, Dipito may be more inclined to salary dump. Unfortunately, until Donaldson signs there's no reason to move Seager. And if prospect rich teams lose out on Donaldson (Dodgers, Braves, Nationals), they may have the prospect cache to outbid the Brewers.
  16. I think a package including Arcia for Seager is probably in the works with the hangup the additional components (Corey Ray?) and cash coming back to MKE. Seager's 3rd year option vests upon a trade so he's a tad expensive. I think he might be the best defensive 3B still out there so that's a definite advantage. Three years (year 32-34 seasons) isn't too long of a stretch for performance decline. We could give them back Freddy. The chances he develops another pitch are about the same as Arcia breaking out...
  17. Castellanos for 5/$110M with opt out in 3. David Stearns new market efficiency is having too many OF. We almost made the WS in 2018 with too many OF... Make the magic continue...
  18. Well if the Brewers math is the same as historical FA math then they are expecting a little less than 0.5 WAR for $4.5M. Lol. I did a logistic regression analysis of all available data (in my head), but really just used the # of years he was above 1 WAR for the 50%. The 2% I pulled out of my butt as "close to" means different things to different people...
  19. Thames has been a very consistent 2WAR/500PA player over his 3 years with the Brewers. Sogard is also very consistent - he has never had 2 good years in a row. Never. I don't care what Sogard did last year as the chances he comes close to that number is 2%. The chance he put's up a less than 1 WAR year is ~50%. As a backup he's fine for change. As a backup for $4.5M when we don't have a 3B and 1B then that's just crazy. History repeating? Pay Sogard for his 2017 and get his 2018, pay Sogard for his 2019 and get? And the way the offseason is going. Thames will cost more than his option so I doubt Stearns does that and points out his mistake. We're more likely to see Justin friggin Smoak.
  20. We can't keep Thames as a LH 1B option as he's too expensive so we blow a wad on Sogard. Seriously? My god what an overpay...
  21. I make comments here that as a boss/manager of that person I would never make to the person. I am sure Counsell will approach Braun in the correct way to make sure Braun is an active part of the decision to play at _______ position.
  22. That's possible. I have a feeling he knew there just wasn't the talent available this year to buy the needed talent to replace what was lost and instead of spending about the same to get worse he decided to take a step back, reduce salary and see how the few young pieces perform this year (does Hiura keep up a 4+ WAR performance, will Urias be the answer at short, is there upside in Narvaez, can Peralta and Burnes put 2019 behind them, is Woodruff a 3+WAR pitcher, etc) before looking to augment that talent following 2020 in a likely better FA environment.
  23. Why does this bring back memories of the second coming of Yuni Betancourt?.... This move negates all the good Stearns did this offseason... (hyperbole warning)
  24. Wrong on both counts. 3and2Fastball is missing a "potentially". Although it could potentially be wrong as well. Stating either as fact is off-base. Past Performance: Moustakis 2 fWAR player Garica ? fWAR (0.4, 4.2, 0.1, 1.8) so the outlier is? Grandal 4.5 fWAR player Narvaez 1.6 fWAR player Future performance (Depth Charts/Steamer estimates for 2020): Moustakis 2.1 fWAR Garcia 1.0 fWAR (not inconsistent from last 2 years, but low in my opinion) Narvaez 0.5 fWAR (low based on past performance) Grandal 4.7 fWAR So how is ~3 of historic fWAR compared to 6.5 fWAR and ~1.5 of projected fWAR compared to 6.8 fWAR qualify for "already replaced"? Expecting 99 percentile results from every Brewer player just verifies your prescription of Brewer goggles.
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