xisxisxis

Minnesota Twins (1961-pressent): 0.496 winning % 12 Playoff appearances 3 Pennants/W.S. 2 Championships Milwaukee Brewers (1970-present): 0.482 winning % 5 Playoff appearances 1 Pennant/W.S. 0 championships Yeah, aren't the Brewers great!

What does he need to fix? Most players with sporadic playing time (especially younger players) don't perform to the same level as they would with regular PA. The first 2 months, CC did a much better job of getting Gamel into games and he was much more productive. As Gamel's playing time decreased (June/July), so has his performance. Considering the season-long offensive slump from Cain and the old man who needs time off, it's odd that as the season progresses, Gamel's use has inexplicably declined. Maybe the Brewers got tired of the BB and wanted a bench bat to swing for the fences and Gamel just tries to not make out...

I hope he hits 2 dingers today and this comment looks terrible at 8 pm...I'm sure you do as well I sure do. Well, to help with the karma... Grandal is crap, he can't call a decent game, his pitch framing is horrible, he couldn't throw out the runners in a three legged race from 1st base to 2nd. I'd be surprised if he makes contact tonight with his latest slump... Arcia blindfolded is a better hitter than Grandal...

Yeah the Brewers really need more starters with WHIPs close to 2... Yeah...

I hope the Cubs hold on for the series sweep. The sooner this organization is faced with the reality of a 500 season then there might be some planning for the future. It just seems that every move is an attempt to prove Herb Kohl was correct. Let's just hope that Herb Attanasio leaves Stearns to do his job and if Stearns first 2 years was the deal he did with the devil to get the job and the last year has been the "real" David Stearns, then we're probably only 4 years away from another mediocre GM and another no-build re-build.

Good teams find a different hero every day, bad teams find a different goat every day... wonder which one the brewers resemble....

That seems way too much like a plan, which appears to be the last thing they want this year...

Might as well put him back into the rotation so we have at least 4 days where we don't have to watch this crap...

Should have sold. This team has too many problems to be fixed by going out and adding Bumgarner or whatever. Herb Kohl says you're both wrong...

It really adds a lot of tarnish to the Golden Boy reputation Stearns earned the first few years. I really wonder who is making the decisions, because if this is Stearns I am shocked at the level of ineptitude given his past performance. It's been about a year of poor roster management/transactions. A year of almost EVERY decision blowing up. Even the one's that look positive (adding Grandal and Moose) are being negated by the absolute implosion of every other decision.

I am assuming Stearns is still making the decisions, which is really depressing as this season is turning into a Herb Kohl season - let's do enough to just scrape into the last seed and hope... No strategic planning, just playing for that small chance... Where is plan B? Plan A was a starting rotation with 3 "rookies". I haven't seen a Plan B since Plan A went into the crapper...

I'll just borrow a post in response: Arcia was never elite. His dropoff in 2019 isnt even in the quoted numbers. Different aspects of defense deteriorate at different levels. If you look at range for Escobar, he clearly has an age related decrease in his ability to get to balls that are in the "Remote" category. Personally, my lateral athleticism gave way a long time before my forward/back athleticism decreased. Since you missed the point about Yuni, let me try to restate the conclusion first. Funny how the timing of a hot streak can negate a career of crapitude for some. To the point of Yuni having a hot streak, his career was crapitude. To the point Arcia had his hot streak his career is crapitude (worst hitter in baseball during his time in MLB - a not insignificant window; defense that is much more average for a SS than elite = overall crap). Sure, a miracle could occur and he finally gets it, like 0.1% of hitters who were crap their entire careers (MiLB and MLB) all of a sudden become good. At that point the analogy fails, because the "hot streak" was the prelude to a "break out", not just a hot streak in the middle of pretty horrible performance. Is that "reason to think"? no that's a possible outcome, not a probable outcome. As you bolded my statement "How is Arcia like either of those two?", I'll just point out one of the key words: "is". Now "is" is a present tense. You may have learned about this in school. Present tense is the present. Now. Currently. Past tense is previous time, before current (i.e. before present). There's also future tense, which represents future time/events. These will occur later or after the present tense. "Hypthetically" applies to a possible outcome in the future or to an alternate event then what happened in the past or present. Sure, Arcia could by a rare probability become a decent hitter in the future for another team and the Brewers weren't the beneficiaries of that improvement and then Arcia would be like Escobar and Segura. Possible? yes. Probable? no. Which brings me to the difference between 2 very similar sounding, but distinct words: Probable and Possible. These words refer to future events. Possible means it "can be done" without any degree of conversion from a possibility to a reality. Therefore, possible is a boolean or a true/false where something "can be done" or "can't be done". Something is either possible or not possible. Probable is related to a word called probability or likelihood. Probability or likelihood can be expressed as an infinite range of values between 0 and 1, with 0 being absolute not going to happen and 1 being absolute certainty to happen. In practice, 0 and 1 are not events that happen when looking at probability or likelihood. The word "probable" is related to "probability" and is defined as "likely to be the case or to happen." The problem with "likely to be the case or to happen" is that it is subjective. If an event has a likelihood of 0.500000001 then that means there is likelihood that the event will not occur of 0.499999999. Many would not define that as "Probable". In fact, some argue that for something to be "probable" it has to be significantly more likely than a flip of a coin (0.5 probability). To me, I feel comfortable saying that it is possible that Arcia could become an average or above hitter, but it is not probable.

How is Arcia like either of those two? Escobar's defense is elite compared to Arcia. Segura always had a higher ceiling than Arcia and a change of scenery for Jean was probably the best for him given the loss of his child, they aren't comparable at all. Sure, Arcia 'might' improve as a hitter. The risk that he does and you gave up on him too early isn't anything to lose sleep over, while a team that has a contention window needs to upgrade any and every position it can to maximize the return on that window. Most defenders of Arcia point to that hot streak during the very end of the season and playoffs. Sure Yuni Betancourt put together a very good playoffs in 2011. That's doesn't mean he wasn't an absolute horrible player. Funny how the timing of a hot streak can negate a career of crapitude for some...

Well the whole 'base promotions on AAA stats in San Antonio' has worked so well with Shaw and Saladino that they thought they can't wait to September for Grisham. Let's forget about the fact that he's destroyed everyone's numbers in AAA. Not just Shaw and Saladino but Hiura's too. I was mostly making a snarky comment about the Brewers roster management and decisions this year. I like Grisham and think the Brewers should be doing a lot more of bringing up their prospects mid-season to get them acclimated, giving them a bigger role on the team as they show they can deal/deliver. I hope Grisham is seriously treated as a replacement for Braun next year. And before Brew4U goes into cardiac arrest as he replies to my post, I think the Brewers need to base starts on production and future value and stop trying to justify their sunk cost. Braun was a great player. He no longer is and each day he gets older and his natural ability diminishes and he needs to be the first PH off the bench, an occasional starter in LF and 1B and the primary DH for Interleague games next year. It's close to Grisham time...

Well there's been a topic running around for a few months on the Major League board with the title "Arcia - Glove vs. Bat", which may be a few pages down now. The highlights from an analysis of his offense and defense: 1) During his time in MLB, Arcia is ranked as the WORST hitter. 2) Every defensive metric places Arcia around the 10th best SS in baseball out of less than 30 Full-time qualifiers. So he stinks with the bat and his defense is nowhere near elite. He's pretty much replacement level. What is to love about that? Is there something to love about having 2 replacement level SSs? Are you referring to Dubon? If yes, at least he would be cheap next year. Arcia will start costing real money so I hope Stearns looks for an upgrade (no clancy not Mouse). There were several SS last year that could have been had cheap as a replacement for Arcia. Time to move on from Alcides Escobar v2.

Well the whole 'base promotions on AAA stats in San Antonio' has worked so well with Shaw and Saladino that they thought they can't wait to September for Grisham.

Well there's been a topic running around for a few months on the Major League board with the title "Arcia - Glove vs. Bat", which may be a few pages down now. The highlights from an analysis of his offense and defense: 1) During his time in MLB, Arcia is ranked as the WORST hitter. 2) Every defensive metric places Arcia around the 10th best SS in baseball out of less than 30 Full-time qualifiers. So he stinks with the bat and his defense is nowhere near elite. He's pretty much replacement level. What is to love about that?

How many more popups for Shaw before we completely ignore his performance at San Antonio and send him down until September roster expansion?

This is probably my fault as I started Davies on several of my Fantasy Baseball teams. If I left him on the bench he probably would have thrown a perfect game...

If he doesn't swing at every pitch out of the strike zone, I consider that a victory for Arcia. That AB he only swung at 2 of the 5 balls a foot from the strike zone....

I assume a good portion of the delay is having staff try to figure out what to look through from ~1,000 or more different bag designs. I would think they could be proactive by designing a small set of acceptable bags ("official bags") that could be brought into the game and sell them for near cost (not like the huge markups they put on everything else). Transition over a year to requiring only official bags. They could even run ticket and other specials where you buy stuff and get a free bag. Have vendors outside the gates selling the bags. If visiting team fans come to a game they just buy a bag outside the stadium. It would be great to force all the Cubbie fans to buy a Brewers logo bag to enter the game (they'd likely lose or throw away the bag after each game/series so the Brewers could make lots of money off repeat purchases).

I believe an indirect answer was performed at 538 back in 2014. The full article is here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/billion-dollar-billy-beane/ This figure is telling: The article was written in 2014 so the analysis covers all of Doug Melvin's tenure and 2+ years of Dean Taylor (no David Stearns and mostly Attanasio as owner). In essence, the analysis is an attempt to come up with a value that each team has gotten from their leadership over the 2000-2014 seasons above what you would expect simply from the size of the teams payroll. There's good and bad from this analysis - the good being the fact that the Brewers or Brewers leadership are in the positive side of adding value to the team above the payroll expense. The bad (IMHO) is that as the smallest market in MLB with a limited ability to increase payroll, the Brewers need to do much, much, much better in being smart. For all of his efforts, Doug Melvin added very little to the teams record than was possible given the teams payroll. There's some noise in this type of analysis, but taking a wide window of ~15 years will compensate for that. I believe if we have a GM that through draft & develop and talent acquisition can move the Brewers into the top 10 of this type of analysis then I think we will see less of the feast and famon (going to the playoffs 1 year and several years before next playoff appearance) and a more consistently successful team. Ultimately, as the smallest market in baseball, the Brewers leadership has to be much smarter than they have been for a vast majority of the first 45 years.

When did the Milkmen start playing at Miller Park?

What you clearly can't see are the little devil horns on Marisnick's head that are obscured by the batting helmet. It is clear that he planned this years in advance and was waiting for the opportunity to run into Jonathan LuCroy. How better to make sure the Angels don't win another division title. Clearly this is not a Good Omen...

Yes he does seem to make wild claims ALL THE TIME... In every post in every thread... every day.... multiple times a day... multiple times a post...