xisxisxis

Wow if you close your eyes and swing you'll eventually hit the ball. If you hit the ball enough you might get a hit.

If only he had a 640 OPS and played out of position. Then Ginter couldbat 2nd! I don't know, but Keith wasn't born in the Milwaukee area. Never underestimate where a player is born in evaluating talent!

******* Sutton just said that Nedly wants to get Ginter at least 300AB this season....what happened to 400AB, oh wait he only has a 1.157 OPS. Maybe when he gets his OPS over 1.5 he'll have "earned" 400AB for the year. I tell ya if Keith would only invest in some padding.....

I think Kinney is spotting the ball better today than in the Giants game, but he's already thrown 64 pitches in 3 innings. He'll be lucky to make it through 5 and pitches 90+ seem to be when he gets hit the hardest. Hitters 4,5, and 6 are up in the 4th if he can make it through them and the 7th hitter in the 4th he'll have the bottom in the 5th, but the middle of the order in the 6th. I would guess 5 innings is all we see out of Matt or we see some towering shots in the 6th.

Let me save you the trouble of writing your next post: Thanks for the chuckle greg. If you think anything that anyone here says will influence what clancyphile writes and writes and writes and writes and writes repeatedly, to death, and beyond then you might be suffering from 4/20 hangover.

Discuss. Pogo put it perfectly. I'll just say.........

Like I said, how the heck can you make those assumptions on 46 IP with SUCCESS in those 46 innings? Quite simply, you're being negative just to be negative. You've got no clue as to what type of pitcher he'll be in 4-5 years, no clue at all. No I don't have a crystal ball, but I do look at several sources of information including stats. Here's what Jim Callis had to say (one of my sources is BA (Baseball America)): That would be the same Jim Callis who is adored whenever he says something nice about the Brewers minor league system/players. He might make mistakes and if I was truely a knowledgeable Brewer fan I would know he's right about the Brewers when he's positive and wrong when he's negative. Got my point yet? That you can name a few major leaguers who didn't succeed their first year? yeah you can. I don't have the numbers, but I bet if you took the 1st year stats of most major leaguers and compared them to their stats in years 2-6 you'd find that year 1 wasn't as good as 2 thru 6. Does that mean that all of them are going to have good careers? No. I bet there's quite a few who get worse and disappear. Maybe as many as have hall of fame careers. The point is not to take several exceptions and make a conclusion, but to look at the general trend. At least 1 scout (probably a few) has looked and seen that Capuano does not have an out pitch, he doesn't have good velocity on his fastball and he pretty much needs to rely on location to succeed. I bet the chances are much higher that the BA conclusion as to his projection is correct than the chance he'll become the next Greg Maddux. Should I go back and dig up your feelings on drafting Prince to lower that percentage? Yeah I wasn't happy with the Prince selection, but it differs from my feelings about Murray and Gwynn. I preferred a pitcher (specifically Kazmir to Prince), not because I didn't believe he'd make a decent major leaguer, but because he was probably destined to be a DH, we had a logjam at 1B and we were in need of pitching help. Several people had Kazmir as the top pitching prospect in the draft that year. In the cases of Gwynn and Murray I didn't think they should be drafted and both were reaches because I had doubts to there abilities to become ML regulars. Because apparently everyone except for you realized that Cruz was going to spend a year on the bench in the majors before being sent down to AA this season where he rightfully belongs and is off to a decent start so far this year and back on pace as a legitimate prospect. You stated that I ignored him because he proved me wrong. I replied that he didn't do squat last year and I didn't ignore him because I proposed that Yost missed opportunities to get him into games. Then you state that nobody expected him to play so I'm an ass for suggesting he get into games. Which is it? I ignored him or I was wrong to not ignore him? I'd hardly call .280/.360 season with 32 BB to 31 Ks, with demonstration of great speed, plate discipline and fantastic defense justification for your claim. Age and level. Considering Gwynn's age and the level he was playing at he should have put up better numbers. Only after you threw nothing short of a tantrum about his selection on Rule V draft day..... true or false? I recall being much more upset about the Cruz pick, but my memory is going and you seem to have a pretty good catalog of my mistakes so if you could check your hard drive and pull up the relevant post then I can refresh my memory. Generally Rule V pitchers are easier to keep than position players so if I was pissy about Ford it was just my nature overruling my senses. you posting here when the Brewers started out 3-1? 4-2? Nope, not one single word of praise for the Brewers coming out of a few tough series vs. world series contenders over .500 and looking pretty darn good..........Why the sudden re-appearance? Were your fears that the Brewers might be pretty decent this year and make you look like a dope for all the stuff you said about the offseason moves suddenly relieved? You complain that I shouldn't criticize a player based on a small sampling then complain that I wasn't running around like a schooldgirl after the team won 3 out of their first 4 games. Talk about small sample. Sheeesh. If you look back at last year I didn't post very often in the first week or 2 because it's too early to worry about what the record is until you've played about 50 games. If I am so invested in the team doing bad then how come I wasn't doing cartwheels last year? You say that I get some enjoyment out of the Brewers losing because it proves me right and if they win it proves me wrong. Well if you look back at the preseason projections you'll see that I projected the team to win 73 games. The average of all the people who posted was 72.6 and there were 20 people that picked a worse record, 12 a better record and 1 the same record as me. If I'm getting off on the possibility that the Brewers might do bad then there's a good 60% of the Brewerfan faithful who must really be happy when the team loses. It's pretty clear that you take great pleasure in cataloging my negative comments (you must have gotten at least 1 hard drive upgrade the last few years) which is entirely your right, but you seem to forget any positive or reasonable posts. Fine. I though it had been adiquately proven by (IIRC) SoCal when he signed his deal, but apparantly you missed that thread. As I recall he was in the average range at 3B. I also recall that SoCal didn't like that he was signed to a 2 year contract given a host of factors including that he really needed to establish a track record that he could perform at that level before being awarded a 2 year contract. Again, to claim that you know he'll suck based on 46 innings is pretty foolish. I never stated that he sucked or will suck, but that I doubt he will ever be more than a 5th starter and that is the easist piece to find when completing a rotation (they can be found almost anywhere). If you've implying that a #5 starter sucks then we disagree completely. I do believe that it takes a great deal of talent to make it to the major leagues. Any player who walks onto a major league field should realize he has a great deal of talent and that a vast majority of the players who try to attain that goal never succeed. That doesn't mean that any player that makes it to the majors is going to be my choice if I'm trying to assemble a playoff contender. You need to shoot for 5 #1 starters, not throw out 5 #5's and hope 1 might pitch better.

Yup, a 25-year old rookie lefty that allows fewer hits than IP with a 2-1 K-BB ratio is a #5 starter at best, even though he's pitched very well so far and has room to grow and get better. I don't think he won't have a productive career. Heck he might even top out as a number 3 starter for some teams (like the last place Brewers), but is he good enough to be the #4 starter on legitimite playoff contenders like the Red Sox, Yankees, A's, Angels, Phillies, Astros, Cubs, Marlins? No chance in hell. He might be productive eating innings and not sucking, but he isn't good enough to help elivate the Brewers into the top level of pitching staffs. Kinney, Capuano, Davis, Obermueller are all ok pitchers for a bad team because they are reasonably young and have some upside, but they are a group of pitchers that I don't want on a team that has Fielder, Weeks, Podsednik, Hardy, Hart, Jenkins and Nelson. That group might hit well enough to have an average pitching staff and be a playoff caliber team, but I want more guarantees than simply hoping that will be the case. Yup, because no great young players ever get traded by good teams. Just ask future hall of famers Jeff Bagwell and John Smoltz. Because 2 HOF were included as minor parts to trades in the past then the Sexson trade will net us at least one hall of famer. Exceptions don't prove the rule and if you make trades hoping that you get a diamond in the rough as a key to the trade then you'll always be running a crappy organization. After all, weren't you the person basically calling for Jack Z's head after drafting Gwynn and Captain Lou? I wasn't happy with Josh Murray either. As I see it out of those 3 I'm right on 2. I'll take 66.6% any day. I was more unhappy by the fact that they have a hard time saying they went with the best player possible with their 5 position, 5 pitchers, 5 position, 5 pitchers picking. I believe they should have picked the best player available at the time and I wasn't convinced that was what was happening. And I have stated on numerous times that I think that Jack Z is the best thing to happen to the Brewers organization over the last 10 years and as long as he continues to have a free hand then he might pick some crappy #3s and I don't see every pick he's made on the direct route to the majors so he does make a mistake or 2. I guess a truely perfect Brewer fan never questions anything Jack's done, or Dougie, or Nedly, because it's obvious they never make a mistake. And the person that called the Cruz and Ford rule V picks horrible despite seeing these players play a combined 0 times and then pretending that most of the above players didn't exist after they proved you wrong? Yeah Enrique Cruz was so productive to the Brewers in 2003. Wow I really had a hard time ignoring his exploits. I do recall on several occasions pushing that he get some playing time, but that seems to be forgotten. And Gwynn? Yeah he's just tearing up the minors. I'm so embarrassed how will I ever live down those 2 players. And who was one of the first few supporting using Ford in the starting rotation? Most of the people who didn't believe he should start were worried that he might get his confidence bruised, yet were waiving the Yost flag for having Kinney throw to Bonds on 3 and 1 to learn how to battle in difficult circumstances. That Wes Helms guy sure looked crappy putting up that 23 Hr .780 OPS season after you proclaimed the trade that netted him a disaster, saying that we should have received a Jack Cust-like player in return for a player like Ray King- and how many times has Captain Jack been DFA'd since then? If he ever hits outside of Miller Park I'll be wrong, but I doubt anyone could seriously get credit for prediciting that the only place he can hit is Miller Park based on his past performance. Wes has value as a Home only platoon player and no other team will trade for him so he has no trade value. He didn't earn a second year on his contract, but was handed one for being Nedly's buddy and he may be overpaid for production depending on how much Ned decides to bench him. I don't see that happening even as the evidence mounts. And yes, I felt at the time that Ray King had more value than a Braves throw-away. (Gee for the second time today I'm defending not being glad to get World Series teams throw-aways. What a novel concept for Brewer fans.) Playoff caliber teams were paying for setup men, especially with very friendly contracts, however, we just happened not to be one of the few organizations that was able to get a decent return for one. It doesn't happen often so I shouldn't be so upset, but the fact it never happens to the Brewers is definitely frustrating. I'll make sure to call Cap when they get back to Milwaukee to tell him there's no point in making the rest of his starts this year, and he might as well retire since its a forgone conclusion that his career in Milwaukee is pretty much futile. I don't know if that's really productive Peavey, why don't you spend the time drafting his Cooperstown speech.

Giving up on a 25-year old Lefty after 13 IP? Giving up? No, but I think it's time for people to realize that to have a successful team (you know, one that gets to the playoffs, etc.) you have to stop filling your team with #5 starters. Capuano is a back end of the rotation guy that can be picked up on any street corner by winning teams. The Diamondbacks have a better track record at developing pitchers over the last 5 years and I think there's a reason they packaged him so easily in the Sexson trade. Just because we're used to finding deals in the dumpster outside Yankee stadium doesn't mean these players will be contributing to a winning team, they're the reason the team won't win because they simply don't have the talent to make this team a winner. Let Capuano flounder around for a year or 2, but I don't have any illusions that he won't be replacable in a nanosecond when the Brewers have enough talent to be successful. Sheets isn't as easily replaced.

Sheets is the only pitcher a good team would have in their rotation. The remainder are 5th starter fodder on teams hoping to make the playoffs if they have a day off about 50% of the time the 5th starter pitches. Long-term Sheets is the only one in the current lineup who will be CONTRIBUTING to the next winning Brewers team.

So what does Ginter have to do to get into the starting line up? I believe it involves a meeting with Yost and a pair of Knee-pads. EDIT: Actually we can take some positives from this game. The Astros have 16 hits and the benificiary of 3 BB and yet they've only scored 6 runs. I know that's a stretch but it is a positive.

I wonder if Clemens actually gets to 90 pitches shutting out the Brewers?

Not to take anything away from him, but wow, the Giants without Bonds don't exactly scare you, do they? I think the Brewers need to send a big thank you to Alou for basically giving this game away today.

Doug M roaming around at the Keg as well. If you could get him using his mobile phone then we might have some evidence he knows how to use one.

I am not rushing to judgement about anything. I am saying as of 4-12-04, status quo, Sheets is untouchable. And I am saying on 4-12-04 that you are the love child of Sal Bando and Cam Bonifay.

It maybe too early to identify long term trends and projections, but it certainly isn't too early to let the stats confirm or deny our early impressions of what has happened. Yes it is too early. Don't make me come to FanFest with my small sample size bat!

The point is...based on what Bens arm is looking like right now....there arent very many guys I would be willing to deal him for straight up. It's pretty silly to proclaim him untouchable after 1 dominant game. Silly being a kinder adjective compared to downright stupid. Starters who hit 99 for 6-7 innings are not common. I don't know of a single study where MPH has been correlated with success. Todd Van Poppel had an electric arm and was considered a top of the rotation pitcher, but he never succeeded as a starter. Speed is a horrible measure of success for a pitcher. Give me a 92MPH pitcher who knows how to pitch versus a 99MPH thrower any day. If he continues to throw like he did this week he leaps towards the top of the list in MLB. Sure, if he CONTINUES to throw that good, but we've been teased by Ben before and until he becomes consistantly good he's just another #3 starter pretending to be a #1. You go on record saying you only actually watch the Brewers 35% of the time and then run your fat mouth. I'ts not necessary to watch every inning of every game to make intelligent comments about the Brewers, nor is it sufficient to watch most of the Brewers games to come out with intelligent comments. You seem to be hung up on the fact that I haven't seen every Brewer game, but after 1 good game you're proclaiming Sheets untouchable. Wow, that's internally consistant! I don't make rush judgments on players based on 1 AB, 1IP, or even 1 game and I don't need 500AB or 200IP to come to conclusions about players. Do you need to see every AB from Bonds and Pujols to know they are the best in the business? I've probably only seem a dozen AB for both in the last year, but that's enough for me based on their stats to know they are the elite players in the game. I don't need to see every pitch by Wayne Franklin to know he's not suited for a ML starter, nor do I need to see every game Matt Kinney pitches in to see that he has potential, but seems to give up too many multiple run HR and a ton of runs late in games. It's not how often you see something scoop, it's the ability to see something consistantly and to use all of the information to come to a conclusion. We are all waiting. Endaround's list was pretty good, Oswalt, Hudson, Mulder, Prior, Wood, Vasquez, Webb. And I'd probably add Zambrano, Halladay, Santana, Morris for young guys and probably Pineiro, Padilla and Wade Miller. If you throw in older guys like Schilling, Pedro, and Schmidt the list gets pretty long without even touching Millwood, Wolf, Lowe, and Ponson. Are you willing to deal Bens arm away right now?? I am not. For the right deal I'd trade any Brewer player. period. Even one who's had 1 dominant game. Just to let you in on a little secret that seems to work for most things in life, you sell high and buy low. If Ben keeps it up and Boston, the Yankees, or some other playoff caliber team wants to give us the sun and the moon and the stars for Ben you bet I'd trade him.

Sheets rocks. After sitting there watching him light up double 9's several times at MP I am not sure there is a starter in the league that I would be willing to trade Sheets for Straight up. I think you just confirmed you are a 13 YO girl with the mental capacity of Al's cocker spaniel.

From the times I've seen Redding, I would claim he's as good as Sheets, possibly better. I agree. I wouldn't discount Redding simply because he's the Astros #5 he may be the suprise of that staff this year.

It's only the fifth game of the season, they might wake up by the All-Star break.

The good news is, Wade Miller's probably pretty tight after 82 pitches and watching his team put up a nine-spot. Willing to put money on that?

In an earth-shattering development I actually agree with Yost!!! Ok, everyone sit down and stop hyperventilating, that's not the signal for the end of the world. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I agree that it's best to keep catching/pitching tandems in place. Pitcher's do become familiar with catchers and each learn's about the other. Having a pitcher comfortable with the catcher is important when pitch selection and location are "agreed" upon. Nedly even shows some flexibility in this respect as I believe Sheets started exclusively with Perez, when the results were less than steller, Ned switched Osik to Sheets and that appeared to lead to a better stretch for Ben until he got injured.

Damn! There goes my dream of the Brewers going undefeated in 2004.

If he was taking out earlier in the game like he should have been his ERA would be in the high 3.90's If we take that one logical step further....IF Yost removed him every game before it started he would have a 0.00 ERA.

OTOH, Miller Park isn't heated Miller Park isn't heated? My understanding is that it is heated, but only to about 20 degrees above outside temp. Therefore, it can be cold when the outside temperatures are low, but it still has heating.