Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

Eye Black

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    12,459

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    6

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Eye Black

  1. Eye Black
    Below is the Brewers Spring Training broadcast schedule: Brewers Spring Training broadcast information can also be found in the regular Brewers.com Schedule. Below is a screenshot of the first week of Spring Training:
  2. Eye Black
    On Saturday the Brewers begin their Spring Training quest to take home the 2020 Cactus League championship. Use this thread to discuss game and performance related commentary throughout the 2020 Spring Training season. NOTE: With the exception of the Miller Park games, the times listed on the above schedule are local for Arizona (Mountain Time).
  3. Eye Black
    I wasn’t attempting to predict the actual opening day lineup, just stating what I would prefer to see. That being said, you could simply replace Garcia with Braun and I wouldn’t object.
  4. Eye Black
    For opening day assuming they’re facing Hendricks or Darvish I would like to see something along the lines of the following... 1) Cain ® - CF 2) Yelich (L) - LF 3) Narvaez (L) - C 4) Hiura ® - 2B 5) Smoak (S) - 1B 6) Garcia ® - RF 7) Sogard (L) - SS 8) Woodruff (L) - P 9) Holt (L) - 3B There are a lot of variations of the above lineup I could be happy with. I originally figured Narvaez would hit 6th or lower in the Brewers lineups versus RHPs, but his career .361 OBP makes him a good candidate to hit just ahead of the power bats of Hiura, Smoak, and Garcia.
  5. Eye Black
    Article from FanGraphs on the Holt signing: Brewers Sign Brock Holt, Human Swiss Army Knife
  6. Eye Black
    Article from FanGraphs on the Holt signing: Brewers Sign Brock Holt, Human Swiss Army Knife
  7. Eye Black
    Here is a fun MLB.com Cut 4 story on Brock Holt from 2018, Utility superhero Brock Holt is also the best musician on the Red Sox
  8. Eye Black
    Most likely unrelated, but curious timing for the signing to be immediately after the arbitration win over Hader (and resolution with Suter).
  9. Eye Black
    The Brewers have now also added Brock Holt to the mix. If nothing else the Brewers should shake their “stars and scrubs” stigma of the past. They have added a whole bunch of league average type players including spots they can platoon to likely play a little better than league average. It’s certainly interesting, I guess we’ll see if it actually works.
  10. Eye Black
    I don’t know if this is actually warranted or more of an indictment on the Brewers offseason, but I am excited by this Brock Holt signing.
  11. Eye Black
    Yelich's last year under contract currently carries a lot of uncertainty. Once we get to next off-season I don't think [smart] teams are going to make major trades for players whose contracts expire following the 2022 season. There is too much labor unrest, and either a strike or lockout is a real possibility. There is a chance the 2022 season will be significantly shortened or even possibly not occur at all. My gut feeling is that Yelich will remain with the Brewers until his current contract expires.
  12. Eye Black
    Fancy Christian Yelich Steamer projection graphic from MLB...
  13. Eye Black
    Mike Petriello of MLB.com did an article where he tried to determine the Deepest Lineups in 2020 by using the following criteria: The 2020 projections for a total of 155 players in MLB matched the above criteria (the last two years the actual results have led to 149 and 159 players matching/exceeding this threshold when the season was over). The Twins led the way with an incredible 10 such players with Steamer projections that matched the criteria heading into 2020. The Brewers and Red Sox tied for 10th with 6 such players a piece. One reason I found this exercise interesting is I get the feeling the Brewers goal is to fill their lineup out with as many average or better offensive players as possible, some of which they will certainly do using platoons instead of lineup mainstays. They are about where I would have guessed on the list. Below is the chart showing the results for all teams.
  14. Eye Black
    Thanks, you are correct it’s 13 teams since MLB implemented playoff games beyond just playing the World Series with the best team from each league (which was 1969). I’ll update the post accordingly.
  15. Eye Black
    Since the modern playoffs began in 1969 the team with MLB’s best overall record has won the World Series just 13 times total (so only about a quarter of the time). The 2018 Red Sox were a historically great team, but I wouldn’t use their World Series run as any sort of clear evidence that smaller market organizations such as the Brewers or Royals can’t win the World Series.
  16. Eye Black
    Thanks for sharing, I have a subscription for The Athletic but hadn’t seen this article yet. While I am still not necessarily in favor of expanding to 7 teams per league, I have to admit I think the Brewers would be one of the single biggest beneficiaries of playoff expansion. As noted in the article the Brewers would have made the playoffs three more times over the last decade, but moving forward I think they would be a perennial playoff team. The current front office has proven through patience and discipline that they aren’t going to ever make flashy decisions in the present that could prove detrimental to the future. They are like the ultimate managers of risk across all MLB front offices. They are built to consistently win 80+ games for the foreseeable future. Based on the randomness of the MLB playoffs as compared to other sports (as addressed earlier), the Brewers would be bound to make (and even win) a World Series at some point if they continued to consistently make the playoffs year-after-year.
  17. Eye Black
    One note for those trying to figure out a comp for Luis Rengifo, just a reminder that the Dodgers were reportedly set to give up not only Pederson and Stripling, but also a very good young prospect in outfielder Andy Pages. The Angels were set to give up Rengifo and reports varied between 1-2 other unnamed prospects. There is no way the other prospect(s) included Jo Adell, and they probably didn’t include Brandon Marsh either, and beyond them the Angels system is somewhat comparable to the Brewers system without a lot of perceived high ceiling talent. It obviously depends more on the Dodgers evaluation of the players involved than prospect rankings, but I certainly don’t think it is impossible to envision a scenario where the Brewers could similarly match up with the Dodgers.
  18. Eye Black
    FanGraphs came out with their 2020 Top 100 Prospects. Despite the title they actually listed 120 total prospects. Only one representative for the Brewers, Brice Turang came in at #104 and was marked as an FV 50. It also included the following write-up on Turang:
  19. Eye Black
    I am not sure if we are misunderstanding each other’s points, or actually on the same side here. My point with that study link was not that we should scrap the regular season by any means, but actually the exact opposite. The length and results of the regular season are much more important to MLB than any other professional sport because it takes such an incredibly large sample size for results to actualize that match true talent levels. If the goal is to figure out who the best team is at the end of the playoffs than the best way to do that would be to significantly limit the total number of teams that get into the playoffs. If the goal aligns closer to entertainment value (and revenue for the teams), than I guess an argument can certainly be made for “the more the merrier” playoff approach. That isn’t the side I would choose, but I understand the argument.
  20. Eye Black
    Actually, no. Here is a really good study done at Cornell about the randomness of the four major professional sports leagues (Overview Link and PDF Document Link). MLB is subject to the most random outcomes of the major professional sports. Here is a blog that uses the above study results to sum up the randomness of the post-season as compared to the NBA, Rethinking our playoff philosophy (on the role of chance in the postseason)... There is a lot more to dive into about the randomness of baseball outcomes, but that sort of captures the gist of how unique MLB variance actually is.
  21. Eye Black
    This is a good point, PECOTA's goal isn't to nail an exact win total, but rather offer the range of possible outcomes and the probabilities of each of those outcomes (a much better Baseball Prospectus explanation here). They have bell curves for each team's number of various outcomes taken from their 1,000 simulations. In the Brewers case the curve spikes sharply at the 78-80 win marks...
  22. Eye Black
    Craig Calcaterra took a look at how this proposed system would have changed the postseason since 2014... Under the proposed system: 2014: two 79-win teams tie for postseason spot 2015: two 83-win teams make postseason 2016: a 79-win team makes postseason 2017: three 80-win teams tie for postseason 2018: three 82-win teams tie for postseason 2019: an 84-win team makes postseason I think one of the biggest issues with expanding the playoffs in MLB is the fact that unlike the NFL or NBA, game results are much less indicative of who the actual best teams are over shorter samples. If you let sub-.500 teams in the playoffs you will absolutely have years when those mediocre teams make, and even win, the World Series. The randomness of baseball results will cause even less certainty than we have now in determining the actual best teams.
  23. Eye Black
    In addition to commenting on what the actual projections systems seem to think please feel free to offer up your own NL Central 2020 standings predictions. No need to list full records, just win totals for each team. I’ll start... NL Central 2020 Standings Prediction Cubs - 87 Brewers - 85 Reds - 84 Cardinals - 82 Pirates - 68
  24. Eye Black
    The PECOTA 2020 standings projections are out and they project the NL Central to look like this: The FanGraphs 2020 standings projections currently only show projected winning percentages which lines up as follows when converted into wins (subject to change once ZiPS is factored in): Cubs - 84 wins Reds - 81 wins Brewers - 81 wins Cardinals - 79 wins Pirates - 72 wins Clay Davenport’s 2020 standings projection model currently predicts the following 2020 NL Central standings (win totals only): Reds - 86 wins Brewers - 85 wins Cubs - 82 wins Cardinals - 79 wins Pirates - 72 wins
  25. Eye Black
    Looks like MLB is contemplating an expansion from the current 5 playoff teams in each league to a field of 7 teams making the playoffs (with one team in each league receiving a bye). Speculation is that it could be implemented as early as 2022. Details included in this Joel Sherman article: MLB plotting playoff expansion — with reality TV twist
×
×
  • Create New...