The problem with Capuano this year is he doesn't get guys out when he's even or behind in the count or when they're on base. OPS's against him are just terrible when he doesn't throw strikes. Get this, he has walked every single batter he has gotten a 3-0 count on this year. Every single one.1-0 and 2-0 counts give OPS's about 1.0. His first pitch OPS is 1.0. So, on 0-0, 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0 a guy is either getting on base via walk or driving the ball. He doesn't do anything to a guy the second he gets behind and sometimes when even. Even a 3-1 count gives a 1.5 OPS! He does fine when he gets a guy 0-1 or 0-2, but almost every pitcher does. But you're not going to get a lot of guys there. And since he has to work to get to 0-1 (remember guys are crushing him at 0-0 in the first place) it's even more rare. With no outs his BABIP is .366. That can't all be luck, can it? Maybe he's throwing meatballs down there. With 1 outs he's right on average, a .290. With 2 outs though he falls to .342! Probably because there are more likely to be base runners at this time? As he faces batters more his BABIP goes up and up and up. From .317 to .323 to .375! Consider the defense is responsible for it being around .310. You have to assume the defense is a constant and the fact it rises to .375 means he's getting rocked hard the third time through. This makes sense because from pitches 75+ he gets rocked. The SLG% rises with the BAbip. Although typical for most players, his is really, really bad.. What does this mean? His BAbip is a function of bad defense but also the fact that he gets balls driven really hard. Why so bad? Because he can't pitch when he gets behind in counts or when he gets a couple guys on base. This is a deadly cocktail. He falls behind in a count and guys get on. then it doesn't matter if he falls behind because he doesn't pitch well and guys get hits. He simply can't afford to fall behind in a count almost ever. He needs his control to be perfect because it's obvious his power isn't. So when his command is off he's throwing meatballs over the plate these guys are rocking. Lots of talk about luck and Cappy in this thread so far. The only luck I see is he's throwing the dice trying to get lucky with meatball pitches and guys are rocking him. Endeer is mainly right. Cappy wasn't too different in the past. Before he did better with men on base. But his OPS's after pitch counts and situations were about the same (a little worse this year). He just got pretty lucky before. Although 2 years ago he was a stud when guys were on base and that's what saved him.