Thurston Fluff

I don't think a collar counts. It's more bling than clothing. Clothing as protection for old dogs skin doesn't count either. That more like depends.

Green and Gamel's arby clock really shouldn't come into play unless the plan is to leave them down for most of next year. Given McGehee's play this year and the likely departure of Fielder next year I think there is a good chance both will be with the big club out of Spring Training next year. Why field an inferior team if we don't have to? You keep saying Kotsay is inferior to Gamel and Green. They very well may be superior talents. They may end up having superior careers. They may even be superior regular players this season. That is not what they would be doing here now. There is no evidence that shows they are superior bench players. That is a specific role that by and large players, managers and GM's agree is the toughest role in baseball. The only evidence is Gamel's production when playing part time. That evidence doesn't support your claim. The Brewers are 73-51. This is an absolute go for it year. If starting someone's clock a month and a half early is the best decision for winning a game this year when needed, that's what they should do. Absolutely correct. I have no problem starting an the clock early is if there is an obvious upgrade and that upgrade is needed. Neither of those two scenarios are true. All it would do is start it early. Probably not a problem but considering we don't know what the future holds why make a lateral mover just to make a move? Not to nit pick too much but I disagree with absolute go for it year concept. To me that means this year and only this year. We are pretty set for next year as well.

It can hurt. We haven't won the division and Narveson is the more accomplished pitcher. He's already worked in the pen so i don't know what he's going to learn now that he didn't when he was doing it then. It could also hurt as much as help. Messing with something that is working is playing with fire.

Since you care, read post #44 this thread. I missed that one the first time around sorry. I'm glad someone tried. It isn't what I was looking for but it does help. I'm trying to find a baseline so we can see what we should expect. Keep in mind Melvin tried to get at least one of those better guys but he chose to sing with another team. What I am saying is that if I thought Kotsay was the best option within our system I would have no problem with him. As it is we probably have 3 guys who have better talent it AAA right now who could be had for nothing. Gamel has a career 684 OPS in limited time and Green isn't even as far along as Gamel at this point? Gamel's problem when he did come up was lack of consistent playing time. He has not done well when given limited playing time. It also wouldn't come without cost. Career development and arby clocks are something. Unless there is a clear cut advantage why not let them develop at no cost?

no Brewers gear yet but that will change if I have my way. Oh man not another one. Look at the top picture of Milton. Ears down, apprehensive stance ready to retreat. Now look at the second picture. Ears up alert looking forward interested in the world but content. The difference? His hat. Dogs are meant to roam the world naked.

In other words you don't know. I'm asking for actual evidence that there is someone more capable of this role. So far all I see is people comparing apples to oranges. WE know he isn't a good hitter in the absolute sense. I want to know if there is some quality that guys like Kotsay possess that is useful to that role. Is he better or worse than the average pinch hitter/backup? So far I haven't seen anyone show me he is or isn't the norm for his role. Hell I haven't seen anyone actually tell me what the norm is. I'm starting to believe nobody actually knows. If someone does please share.

Backupcatchers has met and played with Milton a few times and he can probably vouch that he's a really well behaved dog. If you live or visit the Fox Valley we should introduce the two. Milton can show your pup the ropes. He's actually pretty amazing. There are dogs that have the it factor and he certainly has that. Both athletically and personality wise. As a matter of fact I kind of want to film him playing skip dog. We did it once and he was perfect for it. Now that I vouched for him we have to talk.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/devil.gif We'll also have to talk about the hat thing. Brewers or not come on. You could see his shame. I was about to return the book on Italian grey hounds you gave me. You want me to forward it to obsessedwithbrewcrew? Just a warning Obsessed the reason I got the book was I met another an he was not as cool as Milton...yet.

Last time I bought candy from kids fundraisers I got really bad candy bars. I thought, next time I'm gonna pay the kid five bucks to get me a snickers bar from the corner. It happened today. I gave her $5 and told her to get me a snickers bar at the corner and you can keep the change. She went and came back with my snickers bar. Maybe some would believe all my trust in her got me was a $5 snickers bar. Maybe so still, all in all, I still can't help but believe it was a win win situation.

Projection systems attempt to intelligently and objectively looks at past performance to predict future performance. I agree. I also think they work better for regular players than part timers. Perhaps I'm wrong. If anyone knows I'm sure you could show me where. Back to my question that I haven't seen answered. What is the norm for players in Kotsay's role? We keep talking about how terrible he is but terrible compared to what? Starters getting 400 ab's? Of course he is. If he wasn't he'd be getting those ab's. What does that really tell us? Is he below average compared to guys who get 200ab's? The average player in the league? The hypothetical replacement player? Is he below average when compared to other bench players? What is he substandard in comparison to? Once we answer what we are comparing him to then maybe we can get closer to agreement on how well he's done. Until then I think it's just stating the obvious. He isn't a good everyday player anymore.

The best way to increase the likelihood of clutch hits is to have good hitters for clutch situations. Those guys are starters. To believe there is this supply of good hitters that are wiling to sit on the bench and wait for their moment is what seems far fetched. Teams have a hard time finding starters that are average let alone bench players. Look at the lack of talent league wide at third and short for example. I don't know if there are many players at all that would rather be bench players on even a good team if they have a chance to play regularly. Even if it's on a bad team. That leaves precious few who can even put together a professional ab let alone be good overall hitters.

Does anyone know what the production norm is for players with 250ish ab's per year are? I get that Kotsay isn't good in the absolute sense but how good is the average bench player/pinch hitter? Where does he compare to that? What can we expect out of that role regardless of who is in it? I haven't a clue.

If we are talking about what Kotsay has done so far this year, yes it's great that he's done well in some important situations. The question is what do we expect going forward though, isn't it? I think the question is how much better could we expect from that role? There aren't many guys who are good and willing to be part time players. The ones who are get expensive for that role. IF there was some guy who was young with a low ceiling who happened to be good at putting together good ab's in limited play then I can see replacing Kotsay. I just don't think low ceiling guys can put together good ab's as well as older guys with experience can. They may no longer be viable starters due to age but still have the knowledge to put together a good ab when called upon. I also think Kotsay getting more work early is now paying off. Both in keeping Hart and Braun a little fresher in the dog days of August and Kotsay being kept sharp. Well as sharp as Kotsay can be anyway.

Some guys can get righties out some guys can get lefties out. I get what you mean. Problem is if a pen has too many of those types then there is no way to put players in the position to win. It's ok to have a loogy and maybe even a roogy. If the pen has more than that I don't believe you can put them in position to win. After all most teams have several righties and lefties mixed throughout the lineup. How many games can you change pitchers every time some off handed hitter comes to the plate before you implode the pen? You'd have to use most of the pen almost everyday. Ultimately I think you have to get pitchers who can pitch when needed vs find spots crappy ones have a chance of being successful in. If pitchers need to be in certain positions to be successful there comes a time there will not be enough spots they can succeed in to warrant a roster spot. You also would need to have a specific mix of these specialty pitchers to handle every position they may need to be in. Is that even realistic to do? It's also not an automatic decision when to take a SP out. I was shocked he left Wolf in as long as he did in 1-0 game, but it worked out. Not that pitch count was an issue, but he has baserunners on i nthe 7th, and RR let him get out of it. This to me is something I think he does well. Macha didn't have along leash. I know Macha didn't have the same quality of pitchers but he didn't do that with Wolf last season and he should have.

I think that had more to do with nobody capable of handling the position than the other way around. If they need to be in certain situations to succeed then maybe they just aren't that good.

Agreed....you have Ax for the 9th, K-Rod for setup, the healthier/fresher of Saito/Hawkins for setup, Loe for a groundball situation, Estrada for long man/garbage time, and Dillard for randomly getting up and stretching. Except for the very rare occasion, there is literally nothing to handle. It's equally hard to not screw up a bad bullpen. I don't buy into the belief there is some manager who is capable of making chicken salad out of chicken poop. Not good chicken salad anyway. I think there may be managers who can screw up a good staff. Lets look at what could have been screwed up. He could have screwed up the closer situation. They could be sharing or he could have just replaced Ax. He could refuse to accept Loe wasn't the answer in the 8th. He could have over pitched Saito or Hawkins. He could insist on a loogy no matter how bad they are. He could have replaced starter earlier in some games and overworked the staff.

It's a long shot but the schedule may make it doable. Of all the contending teams the Brewers have the 2nd easiest in the NL and the Phillies most difficult. That includes a four game trip to Milwaukee.

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They had very little adversity in my opinion. Even good teams go through bad stretches. Isn't adversity something that bad team have more of simply because being bad increases the amount of adversity? I think a lot of adversity ends up being injury related. I think they have had an normal amount of injuries to go through. They lost all of their lefties in the pen, Hawkins and Saito both missed time, they went without their ace starter for a month, their all star second baseman for a month plus and started the season without their all star RF. That is enough to say they had some adversity. It isn't a huge amount of injuries but it what one would expect over a 162 game season.

They have never had much adversity and it is very easy to get along when things are that easy. Ron must be good. Not only did he get his players to forget the bad times he got the fans to as well. Remember that 7 game losing streak at the end of April beginning of May that had the Brewers four or five games under 500 and looking terrible? They went 17-6 the rest of May. Remember how the team couldn't win on the road? They've gone 10-6 on the road since the break. That included an 11 game west coast trip that almost always ends up badly for the Brewers. Remember when key players like Greinke and Weeks went down? They kept winning anyway. Just because the team handled adversity well doesn't mean it didn't have any. They just overcame it. How much RRR has to do with that is debatable. I think the team is mature and experienced enough now to handle it but Ron must have something to do with it.

was his method of scouting rendered useless because of the books success or was the method an anomaly to begin with? Maybe both. Finding those inefficiencies have become more difficult since everyone is now looking for them. They are also all using the same sabre tools now where in the past only some did. In the respect of using stats to find the inefficiencies the book may have something to do with his lack of success now. Someday someone will find a different tool to use while everyone else is still using today's tools and will get a similar advantage. Then it will be copied and no longer an advantage until another innovation is found and so on. In the respect of the specific approach to finding the inefficiencies it's an anomaly. The process of continuously finding inefficiencies is often a string of anomalies.

"I occasionally get birthday cards from fans. But it's often the same message: They hope it's my last." ---Al Forman (former MLB umpire)

To be fair he said that he also said it had nothing to do with the loss. Pujols said the ump was honest and said he didn't see it and wasn't a wienie about it.

Man the K-Rod deal really has played out well so far. Beyond that when you have a starting staff capable of going 7+ every night and a manager willing to let them go that long it all adds up.

Does anyone remember a time the Brewers had this fresh of a bullpen in August? Last week they gave a game to Dillard just to give him some work. Their most used reliever could be used in 50% of the games the rest of the way and still not break the 80 game mark. There really isn't a single guy who is wore out at this point. I can't remember that happening very often.

This is absolutely nuts to me, even if it's only been 40 some odd plate appearances. Some of the Brewers relievers have made him look straight up silly the past couple games against him. That's because we missed the memo Tony sent telling us how he likes to be pitched. How can we expect him to hit against us if we keep pitching him in a way Tony disapproves of? Milwaukee is really being stupid on this. Don't they know they are depriving us Brewer fans from seeing one of the all time greats play at his best?