Thurston Fluff

I'd rather they put Morgan at leadoff and use Hart in the 2 hole. I like the idea of having the power bat follow the singles hitter if given a choice.

Morgan has really grown on me. I read his comments when he bunted for a base hit and RBI late in a game recently and he said it was all on him. Paraphrasing he said I know I'm not good against left handers so I had to do what I could. Dude seems to know what he is and understands the game well enough to be as productive as he can be in any given situation.

RR is just like alot of managers in the game. He has his "guys" in certain spots and that is the way it is. Very true. I wonder why that is. Maybe it's just human nature or maybe it has to do with what a player was told and how long a manager believes he has to stick by his word. Every player knows production is necessary but every player on the team probably has an idea of whether said player was given enough of a chance. Not giving a player enough of a chance IMHO is as bad as giving him too long of one. Both because if the player can get straightened out it makes the team stronger and because every other player has to trust what is being told him is true. This is a case in which everyone does it may have a reason other than they are all stupid.

I agree that just using FIP is probably too extreme. The pitcher should get some credit for the result of balls-in-play. How about, average ERA and FIP, to at least give defenders some of the credit for sucking? I have long wondered why there isn't some sort of system that does that. It seems silly to not use data because it isn't entirely on the pitcher when there is a fair share of credit/blame on him. Maybe add team defense into it then adjust the ERA to what it would be with an average defense.

I tend to agree this is a two year window we are playing with. I can understand fear that it will not produce more than the one playoff appearance with this group. I don't understand why that leads to not liking a team in first place. To me it should enhance it not take away from it. This group is set up to get to more playoffs than the 80's Brewers did. They are on pace to tie it this season. If a person can't enjoy the now when the now is as good as it has ever been then what is the point of following the team at all?

People seem to have made up their minds four weeks into the season and haven't budged since then. But when I see comments like "this is my least favorite competitive team," I have to ask what's the difference as long as they are competitive? They have a couple real bad players on it. To succeed with a couple real bad holes seems to me to be more a sign of competence somewhere within the coaching/managing of this team than a failing. Overall half way through it appears to me we are playing to the level projected for us at the beginning of the season. If we are playing where we should be playing and the manager is making all these terrible decisions then it either means this team is way more talented than most people thought or those in game moves just aren't all that important to winning. I think it the latter. The manager manages people to play well throughout the season. Some moves only make sense when looking at the season as a whole. Some may never make sense. I really don't care what moves a manager makes on any given day as long as the team as a whole is playing to expectations. First place and winning at the pace expected of them is playing to my expectations. Since they are playing to me expectations my impression of Ron so far is good. I still reserve the right to change my mind since the season isn't over and some of his moves have yet to prove they will be good for the entire season. At this point though first place in one of only two divisions in baseball to have more than two teams above 500 seem to be satisfactory accomplishments for any manager let alone a first year manager. If hating some players or the manager make following them more fun then by all means do so. For myself second guessing unimportant moves takes away from my overall enjoyment so I just don't do it. So does defending every move he makes so now I stay away for the most part. I'll just sit back and enjoy good baseball and an all to rare pennant race. Yost may or may not have been as good as DPR but he wasn't given the talent DPR has this year and he at least went through some bad times with us. If it were up to me we'd still have Yost as a manager but this team is as flawed as Yost's were.

Do you think he son is a slow learning or that Carpenter just doesn't explain things well? I think he spends the first few innings of every game explaining the difference between LaRussa's alphabet and everyone else's to them. The quickest way is to have them drink a few glasses of wine but, being kids and all, he had to go a different route.

I have long been at war with WAR. I think stats are very useful when uses properly. War does not do that in it's calculations. Even assuming it did it is so misused/misunderstood that it causes more confusion than it clears up. WAR doesn't tell you who was "better"; that's a very subjective term in the first place. So why do people continue to use a player's WAR to assess who is having a better season or who is the better player? That happens all the time. I have several problems with WAR. One is it is continuously misused. See above. Two is it doesn't use the stats in it's calculations the way they are supposed to be used. The defense in particular is used wrong IMHO. You can't use one season's worth of UZR for example when it is commonly accepted that it takes three years to come to something useful. It is silly to use something known to be inaccurate and expect the outcome to be accurate. Then you have the issue of weighing each component properly which leads me to the nest issue. Three nobody really seems to understand precisely how it derives it's outcome. We seem to know what goes in but not sure what measure of each and such. Hell Rluz once said he wasn't exactly sure how it was derived and he's one of the most astute stats guy here. It's to baseball stats what derivatives are to banking. My final issue is more based on my skepticism of the very concept that one stat can be all encompassing than on WAR itself. I understand the desire for an easy to read, easy to understand number that encompasses everything we need to know about a player or when comparing two players. Problem I see is it isn't possible to do with any amount of accuracy. At least it hasn't been done yet. I applaud the attempt. It may turn out I am wrong and it can be done. In that respect I have no problem with the attempt. Just the outcome of said attempt as useful for anyhting more than a stepping stone toward something intrinsically useful on it's own.

After seeing so many bench players who were having lousy seasons so far help this past series I think it illustrates why you have to play them enough to be able to help when needed. Given Braun's health issues it also shows why using them helps the regular player as well. It's a long season. You will invariably need bench players playing their best. Even if that best isn't very good it's better than what they would be if they had rotted on the bench until pressed into service. Then, when a couple regulars are dragging or hurt, you have nothing. Playing bench players more often early has long term positive effects even if they are not apparent at the time. In fact it may never be apparent if done correctly because the regular players won't have a drop off and the lingering, wear and tear type of injuries happen at a lower frequency. How on earth do you send a guy in an 0 for 28 slump up there to hit for another position player with the game on the line and Ryan Braun supposedly available to hit? I think the major reason is if Braun still isn't right after the break he can be DLed for less time. Add in Counsell didn't need a base hit and he doesn't strike out much it was a pretty safe task. That bit of success may be helpful in getting him going as well.

He's a good fit for that role. I also think that is an important role on the team. Usually long relief guys pitch when the game isn't going well so their contributions show in that game. In general if a guy can absorb innings in that role it helps saves the pen for another day. It's a bonus when you have a guy who can hold things down well enough to win that particular game. Estrada has done that well so far.

And if you're talking track record, you have to include MiLB success & Hardy's top prospect status too I think two years of major league time is far more telling than minor league numbers from 3 or more years ago. Especially with Hardy whose minor league numbers are from over half a decade ago. Casey has to get it going there is no disputing that.

Fair point. I thought you meant offensively since you posted the younger and better defense at the end. I think it fair to add durability to that list if you are using age as well though. Hardy is younger but he has not aged well and isn't as durable so far. Either way Hardy was not sent down because of his defense. He was sent down because of his offense and there was someone ready to take his place. Casey is as good offensively as Hardy was so he will get the same amount of time to work through it. Perhaps more if Green isn't as ready to take over as Escobar was.

You can't say this for sure, but a logical conclusion would be fewer pitches in the strike zone=fewer mistakes It would be logical to conclude his missing the zone more often now than in than past is related to missing his spots wouldn't it? If he's making mistakes more often then it seems logical more are in a hittable spot than in the past as well.

Hardy had a far better track record than those two and more hope to bounce back. Betancourt has never been good and McGehee has had one brief good run. Neither was ever as good as Hardy and Hardy was younger and better defensively. Casey had an OPS of 859 and 801 his previous two years. Hardy 786 and 821 prior to his meltdown. For their careers Hardy has a 756 OPS while Casey has a 757 OPS. How is than better than McGehee's?

When I hear that someone is clutch, it only makes me think, if he's so good with RISP, what kind of lazy guy is he that he can't play hard all the time, even without men on base? I wasn't trying to make any statement about how he should be kept in the lineup due to his clutchness. I was merely responding to the notion that that one clutch HR would somehow mean he got to keep playing. Well of course his terrible 09 is leagues better than what we can expect this year Does everything in every post by you have to end up being a Yuni bash? We get it you hate him and want him gone yesterday but what does that have to do with Casey?

I agree Hardy did my only point is sending someone down doesn't automatically mean it helps them get back their swing. AS was pointed out by The Truth we need to get him back to form for this year and beyond. Green may be the answer down the road or he may not. I'm not so sure he is ready to contribute now at the level Casey has been the last two years. We need that type of production not just something marginally better than what Casey is at the moment. I'm all for what ever helps get that accomplished. I'm just not as sure sending him down does that.

You send Casey down and let him figure it out. Once he does you work him back in to the team. That didn't work so well with Hardy.

Are they confident because they are successful or are they successful because they are confident? How much is one influenced by the other? Which has a bigger influence?I think it's irrelevant to this conversation. The relevant part is whether we can see said confidence. To answer your quesiton though I think each can lead to the other. It doesn't have to be exclusively one way or the other.

If his numbers match his career numbers and the rest doesn't it seems to me to be the one area that isn't a problem. Yet he was losing time to others despite that. So why on Earth would anyone think this one time event would be any more significant than all the other events just like it this year? If he continues to get playing time it will be because he's been pretty danged good the only two years he's been here. That should trump half a season's worth of stats or what he did in one game no matter the results. He will be given every chance there is to regain his form and should. If ha can't the same thing that has been happening to his playing time will continue to happen. And that should as well. What should not happen is a complete banishment to the bench forever because he had a tough couple months.

He's actually been pretty clutch all season. His OPS with RISP and 2 out is .791, bases loaded it's .917, man on third w/less than 2 outs it's .753. I can't find it now bu twill look but I believe he's doing well late in close games as well. His problem is non clutch situations.

I don't think anyone denies it is a real thing as much as some think it can't be clearly determined by other people. Most particularly fans.

I suspect that was not where he wanted it but I also bet that he gets away with it more often than not. Is he getting hit on mistake pitches more often than usual or is he making more mistakes than usual? That is the million dollar question right there. I'm not sure how much it matters looking ahead. He's either making more mistakes than usual which should even out or his mistakes have been getting hit more often than usual which should even out. Should being the key word in both cases. Going forward I think we'll see more of the usual Greinke which is somewhere between where he is now and his Cy Young year.

I'm sorry but someone tell me how the HELL you can tell if a pitcher is concentrating or not while pitching? Is it similar to knowing when a batter is showing confidence while batting? I would guess the same way a stats guy knows when the numbers don't match the production luck or random variance is the reason why. Personally I think all of them from both sides of the isle are really are just cop out answers when trying to understand something that is impossible to understand with the information at hand. Each answer could be true but there really is no way of knowing and no test to put them through to get an answer. Sometimes we just have to accept we can't know and move on.

I noticed he never says he's a police officer. Someone should tell the happy youngest cleaning a police station bathroom isn't usually considered working in law enforcement.

Doesn't Gomez have an option left? Or does his time in the majors mean he has a say? As I recall JJ Hardy got sent down with as many years of service and he didn't have a choice.