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3and2Fastball

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Everything posted by 3and2Fastball

  1. I think has a chance to make the HOF if 1) He makes it to 600 HR's .... Or 2) If he contributes mightily in a World Series (such as getting a WS MVP Award or a WS walk-off etc) Or 3) He wins a few MVP's If he finishes with 550+ and a WS MVP or 2, yeah that would work too The 600 HR's is the most likely scenario, which he could achieve if he stays healthy and keeps on pace like he has been The MVP is a long-shot, but I suppose if he hits 60 HR's in a season he could get one (he's on pace for 51 this year)
  2. yeah I didn't really get that stolen base, either, when down 6-2 it seemed like an unnecessary risk for a player who has been playing hurt. I wonder if that was Roenicke's call or if Braun ran on his own. Strange play and an unfortunate result
  3. I'm not real big on WAR as a comparison stat, but even in WAR Jeter has accumulated way more offensive WAR than Ripken, in 3 less seasons (89.9 to 72.8) I grew up part of the time in Baltimore, and I think Ripken's D was overrated. Yeah he was good, and maybe I was spoiled by seeing Brooks Robinson & Mark Belanger before Ripken came along, but Ripken didn't have a ton of range either and by the age of 35 had already moved to 3B.
  4. I think there are some credible arguments that could be made for Jeter being the best SS of All-Time. Certainly it could be argued that he's the best hitting SS of All-Time Jeter has played against way tougher competition than Wagner. I would adjust Wagner's career BA down to .308 from .328 for not playing in an integrated league (Jeter has a .313 career BA). Wagner's career OBP was .391 (Jeter is at .383) so Jeter is way better at taking walks. Wagner was a better baserunner, better stolen base threat, hit more doubles but way less HR's. Wagner gets a lot of credit for being an "incredible fielding SS" but his Fielding % at SS is worse than Jeter's (.976 to .940). Jeter's lack of range has long been his downfall but that is still a pretty significant difference in fielding %. Wagner played almost 1000 games at other positions, too (1B, 2B, 3B, OF). Jeter has actually played more games at SS than Wagner now, and has been way more durable too as Wagner missed a lot more games than Jeter. Wagner hit .275 with a .766 OPS in the postseason. Jeter has been at his best in the clutch (.321 BA and .839 OPS in the World Series) Ripken, a lot of people hype up Ripken but Ripken disappeared in the World Series hitting .167 with a .452 OPS! When I compare the best I like to look at how they did in the postseason especially the World Series. Ripken is lauded for his offense but other than HR's and Doubles he is behind Jeter in BA, OPS, OPS+ OBP, steals even Slugging %
  5. I'd never root for the Brewers to lose, especially just so I can be right. I don't care about that, I'd rather be wrong and have the Brewers go 17-3 in 20 games and be in first place. On paper, it would seem like the Brewers should compete with anyone: if this happens and if that happens and if this guy plays to his potential etc etc But for whatever reason, or more like a myriad of reasons, this year's Brewers team just plain isn't very good. A lot of it is the pitching (I really think Wolf is just about done unless he can pitch for the Dodgers or Padres or some other team with a huge ballpark) and the injuries and a whole bunch of intagibles and Roenicke giving away outs with bunts and the bullpen being kind of "meh" and where's Weeks (!?) and Braun getting banged up/playing hurt etc etc I'll continue to hope I'm wrong...
  6. I see us going .500 in June but will be very pleased to be wrong about that Pittsburgh is much better than in year's past. KC, the Twins and the White Sox are all starting to play better, and the Reds are for real.... As always, it depends on our pitching. If only our pitching staff could play at Dodger Stadium year round (!), lots of fly balls to the warning track there that would be way out in Miller Park....
  7. With Weeks posting a .333 OBP in the last 7 days, including a Double, and the Brewers winning 4 straight in LA, Roenicke isn't going to sit Weeks for production reasons, baseball people are way too superstitious for that. Weeks did roll over his wrist awkwardly in the field last night, so that may be a reason to sit him a few days, depending on if there is any lingering problems going on in that wrist from last night
  8. It has been a small sample size with Green but I sure hope he continues to take some walks. Up until a week ago he had exactly 1 MLB walk (he now has 3) and this is a guy who pretty consistently had his OBP about 75-80 points higher than his BA in the minors... I would imagine that the more MLB at-bats he gets the more his game will come together. Weeks is starting to come around a little. I'd let him continue to start
  9. Joe Morgan and Tony Gwynn have very similar OBP's, and identical 132 OPS+ scores, but they had very different ways of getting there: Tony Gwynn's career BA of .338 is the highest in MLB history of anyone who played their entire career in an integrated league.... his career OBP was .388 which means he didn't walk much (an average of 52 Walks per 162 games) Joe Morgan's career BA of .271 is nothing special until you realize that he had a career OBP of .392 which means he walked a ton (an average of 114 Walks per 162 games) Tony Gwynn was a pretty good base-stealer earlier in his career, he stole 56 in 1987 and 40 2 years later, but Joe Morgan was a superior base-stealer who averaged twice as many steals per 162 games as Gwynn (42 to 21) Morgan had a much steeper decline in terms of batting average and OBP, whereas Gwynn's only year under .300 was his rookie year, but Gwynn had a pretty drastic base-running/stealing decline halfway through his career Morgan hit way more HR's (268 to 135) but Gwynn hit more doubles (543 to 449). Gwynn was much better in the post-season and especially the World Series (Gwynn hit .371/.436 in the World Series) Morgan had a much higher WAR because he played Gold Glove 2B whereas Gwynn played pretty good OF, but this comparison is mean to compare their offensive value only I suppose you could say that since they had identical OBP's and Morgan had more HR power and twice as many stolen bases, Morgan was a more valuable offensive player, and yet I still value Gwynn more in terms of offensive production than Morgan.... Maybe it is because, with the game on the line I'd want Gwynn up at the plate getting singles and more doubles than needing Morgan to walk and steal a base.... logic tells me I shouldn't value that .338 BA so much and yet I still do When looking at their Total Bases: Gwynn averaged 283 Total Bases per 162 games whereas Morgan averaged 242 Total Bases per 162 games... but when you factor in Total Bases plus Walks plus Steals it looks like this: Gwynn 283 TB + 52 BB + 21 Steals = 356 Total per 162 games Morgan 242 TB + 114 BB + 42 Steals = 398 Total per 162 games And yet I still value Gwynn more.... I guess I could point to Gwynn's .847 career OPS vs Morgan's .819 career OPS and say that is why... but that is not really it.... I keep coming back to: Tony Gwynn's .338 career batting average is the highest in MLB history among players who played their entire career in an integrated league Who do you rate higher (in terms of offense) and why?
  10. Really, you think Castro & LaHair get us back in the playoff race? Maybe, but I think probably not considering how our pitching has looked And the price for getting Castro & LaHair both from the Cubs, within the division, would be extraordinarily steep. I'd guess it would take Thornburg, Green, Peralta, Bradley, Gennett & Fiers to get Castro & LaHair. No thanks
  11. I really don't see the Cubs trading Castro within the division
  12. I'd have to see a much bigger sample before I know for sure, but I think the difference Maldonado makes behind the plate is so fantastic that the Brewers should consider moving Lucroy to 1B and having Lucroy catch 1 out of 5 games a season. Seriously
  13. Tony Gwynn Sr is who I'd have pinch-hit on my all-time team.... Willie McCovey had the highest pinch-hit OPS http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/5536
  14. yeah but it helps Braun's on-base percentage
  15. I believe that WAR is mainly meant to compare players.... if Braun's WAR for this season so far is 2 or 3, I definitely do not think that without Braun we would have only lost 2 or 3 more games I look at the absence of Prince Fielder from our lineup and feel strongly that my previous thoughts of Gamel + Aramis > Prince + McGehee was foolhardy, and yet I do not have the mathematical data to back that up .... there is something about having a power bat like Fielder in the lineup that puts fear into pitchers and that effects the day to day games in ways that I don't think stats can fully articulate And I say that as someone who is very much into baseball stats Without Braun we're the worst team in MLB right now, I really believe that
  16. Bill Hall ate his way out of Milwaukee.... he got the big money and instead of running straight to the bank he ran straight to the restaurants
  17. The Yankees and Red Sox sure seem like teams that have a lot of money and a huge need for pitching and would go after Greinke & Hamels.
  18. Maldonado was awesome tonight. Even better defensively than I thought he'd be.... Can Lucroy play 1B?
  19. I think with Halladay out 6-8 weeks, the Phillies will be sellers at the deadline and Hamels will definitely be in the mix as a trade nugget. I don't expect Oswalt to be anything special, and I think Texas will go after either Greinke or Hamels
  20. I think that once Kottaras is 100% he will start a majority of the games. More than likely Kottaras will start 4 out of every 5 games until Lucroy is back. They will sit Kottaras in the typical way that teams sit their #1 Catchers, i.e. day games after night games or particularly tough matchups/splits.
  21. I hope Lucroy is a fast healer too... that said I'm very intrigued with Maldonado as I see him as our backup Catcher of the future. I'm trying to remember the last time the Brewers had a Catcher that was as good defensively as Maldonado.... Kendall was very good but Maldonado has a better arm. Maldonado might be better than Chad Moeller & Damian Miller, too
  22. Pretty much the same way that Bryce Harper is making the Nationals better. Profar is raking in AA ball as a 19 year old and playing Gold Glove Defense at SS. He'd be an incredible addition to the Brewers from 2013 through 2019! It might be unrealistic to even hope for a trade for Profar. The Rangers are so high on him they might trade Andrus in the off-season instead. Still I'd offer both Greinke & K-Rod for Profar in about a month or so....Greinke & K-Rod would likely put the Rangers over the top as World Series favorites and we'd have the next Derek Jeter for 6 years in Profar
  23. I wouldn't blow the team up, but the players who will be free agents, Greinke & K-Rod, would really have value at the trade deadline and I don't think we have much of a chance of re-signing Greinke
  24. the question is whether a team that sells will have an effect on attendance, when really the question should be: How big of an effect will losing have on attendance? Fans come out for winning teams. Whether we sell or not, this year's Brewers isn't going to have a winning record. Might as well sell and build a better team for '13/'14 .... As far as the fans (the casual fans) reaction to selling, that all depends on how the Brewers publicize the trades.... it was fun having Blue Chip players like Fielder, Weeks, and Braun coming up through the minors. Fun anticipating their arrival. Fun checking out their video game type minor league stats. That will be fun again, if we can aquire some more Blue Chip prospects Greinke plus K-Rod for Profar please
  25. Yes it is important that George rests up for the next 3 games and is ready for the next time Wolf starts, otherwise Randy's head might explode! I'm looking forward to seeing what we have in Maldonado. He projects as a great fielding backup catcher who could really help an MLB team
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