3and2Fastball

Doug Melvin, is that you? Worst possibility is you have millions of dollars tied up in a player who gives you no trade value if he flops and is taking valuable innings every 5th game away from a young pitcher who deserves a shot at showing the Brewers he can be part of the future rotation.

Holding onto a player who is very unlikely to be a key part of the lineup in 2018 (when they could realistically contend again) is just rolling the dice on them getting hurt or going into a steep decline and damaging their trade value. Trading players for prospects does seem like the smart thing to do

My first inclination would be to say that I wouldn't mind seeing Yadiel Rivera get the spot that Perez would otherwise occupy, but I'm not convinced Rivera is better than Perez. Rivera did very well in the Arizona Fall League and he walks more

Shaffer is an OK prospect. He is 24 and is not elite with either the bat or glove. Loney is clearly in a decline that in his age 32 year could become a freefall. I want no part of taking in aging veterans and thankfully Searns hasn't shown any indication of wanting to do so either. Colin Moran is a significant prospect still, he's just 22 and put up an .840 OPS in AA last year I think that the player who might end up a significant part of the Brewers at 3B in 2018 (when they could contend again) likely hasn't even been drafted yet. I don't really care who plays 3B for the Brewers in 2016. Craig Counsell can do it for all I care

I think it'd be wise not to underestimate the trade value of Adam Lind. Other than Chris Davis, who will likely command a huge contract, there aren't exactly a lot of very good 1B/DH free agents this year. There also aren't a lot of top quality free agent relief pitchers available (Ryan Madson, Joakim Soria, and Tyler Clippard have been mentioned as top of the line). K-Rod, despite his baggage, does have trade value. Lucroy is the one who could really bring back some Top Prospects though. I think you could get a few Top 100 prospects for Lucroy, maybe even a Top 25 prospect.

Hernan Perez is awfully young (24) and awfully versatile to be giving up on, especially for someone who isn't even arbitration eligible until 2018 He was clearly a Melvin pickup and now someone Stearns is saying goodbye to. Perhaps an early indication of the type of players Stearns wants or at least does not want. The Brewers under Melvin really had too many guys with an OBP just 20-30 points over their BA and the old paradigm is that is just not sustainable to great offense.

Lucroy is 29 years old and a Catcher. That is right on the cusp of a big decline but young enough that a trade partner could legitimately think he could return to his 2014 production or close to it. A rebuilding team wants to maximize return on players who would be unlikely to be in their prime when said rebuilding team becomes a contender again.

Personally I would want to keep Smith. He can be under team control until 2020. Having a great bullpen is more than just a trend in MLB, it is common sense. I'd keep him

Hot Stove season is a lot of fun. Looking forward to Stearns trading off some of the older Brewers players, and finding out about the prospects we get in return

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/milwaukee-brewers You'll need to scroll down on that page for Brewers content "....new Milwaukee GM David Stearns aims to make his team younger and build for the future." I would love to see all 3 of these players traded soon. They all have value

I've heard, though, that it is difficult to be a stat driven scout especially when it comes to high school players. There are certain measurables a scout can look for that can be applied to analytics (exit velocity, 60 time, throwing velocity etc) but it can be tough to compare an OBP for a player in Georgia to a player in Texas, for instance, and really the Perfect Game Showcases offer too small a sample to reliably look at game results.

I find it fascinating, too, and appreciate the updates. It is difficult to know how each individual scout might be ranked against their competitors for an outsider like myself, and there may never really be a way of knowing. Seemed inevitable for personnel shakeups throughout the Brewers organization once Stearns came onboard.

I'm happy to see the Brewers bringing in extra income. As a Small Market team the extra $$$ can really help them compete. I see this as a good thing from a Baseball operational standpoint. Interesting subject though, that I wasn't aware of.

Agreed. That said we can now see (as oppose to theorize on) the type of value Odorizzi & Lawrie could have had in a trade if held on to longer

Yes they would have had to acquire more pitching, similar to the Royals, in order to make it work. Evidently Odorizzi plus an Outfield talent (Gomez maybe) equaled Shields & Wade Davis. They certainly would have enough money from not having to pay Aramis Ramirez and K-Rod that they could have signed a better pitcher than Garza. I don't have all the answers, and I recognize that hindsight is 20/20. I do know that if you look at the Brewers & Royals franchises in the moments prior to the Greinke trade, one team really got things right since then and one team, over & over again, really didn't. And, in terms of this thread, I see Gord Ash as a significant part of the Brewers front office that handled their window with incredible ineptitude (Betancourt? Really?!) Cain is a much much better player than all of them right now and in the 2015 season (and only someone wearing "Brewers Goggles" will say Braun is better than Cain when you factor in defense, baserunning & durability). And Cain has been a a much better player than all of them over time except Braun. I mean, c'mon now really? Aoki? Hart? Morgan? Those guys are garbage compared to Cain. The Brewers failure to recognize that kind of thing doomed them. The Brewers' failure to emphasize defense over the last bunch of years has also doomed them. I will, however, be reasonably assured that the Brewers knew how talented Cain & Escobar were and just were so single-mindedly focused on getting Greinke that they gave up the future for the 2+ years of Greinke (the "+" being Segura, Hellweg etc)

That kind of thinking is exactly why the Brewers have had 1 World Series appearance in the last 33 seasons, and the Royals are World Champs.

That makes sense. I appreciate the perspective

Yes but they had Speed! "I think walks are overrated unless you can run... If you get a walk and put the pitcher in a stretch, that helps. But the guy who walks and can't run, most of the time they're clogging up the bases for somebody who can run." Dusty Baker

Unless the Brewers achieve the unthinkable and become a contender in 2016, Lind will definitely be traded, it is just a matter of when. I would prefer that he's traded sooner rather than later for two reasons: 1) I'd like to see Jason Rogers start an entire season at 1B and see what he can do 2) Lind is injury prone. A season ending injury kills his trade value

I've never been incredibly impressed with Dusty as a manager but he may be the right fit in Washington. This will almost certainly be his "last hurrah" as a MLB manager. I'm happy to see that there will be an African-American manager in MLB in 2016, that is a good thing.

Or maybe Marco Estrada's true value was equal to two seasons of one of the better left-handed power hitters in the game? Maybe the Brewers pitching instruction was not exactly topnotch in recent years? I can choose to wear "Brewer Goggles" and say that Estrada was nothing special. Or I can choose to look at the reality of what has happened in Estrada's career, including his 2015 season & postseason and see that he is, indeed, a "good solid pitcher".

Again: Alcides Escobar Lorenzo Cain Wade Davis (Acquired for Jake Odorizzi) Josh Donaldson (Acquired for Brett Lawrie & Prospects) Carlos Gomez Marco Estrada Jonathan Lucroy Jeremy Jeffress Ryan Braun is the nucleus of a sustainable great team, a team that contends year in and year out, which is exactly what Attanasio wanted and exactly what Kansas City achieved (except with Donaldson & Braun the above team might be better). Kansas City knew the value of Greinke and instead went with something greater longterm.

Alcides Escobar Lorenzo Cain Wade Davis (Acquired for Jake Odorizzi) Josh Donaldson (Acquired for Brett Lawrie & Prospects) Carlos Gomez Marco Estrada Jonathan Lucroy Jeremy Jeffress Plus tons of money saved from not having to sign K-Rod or Aramis Ramirez is one helluva nucleus of a team right there. And that's even with a declining Ryan Braun Meanwhile Ned Yost has been a better manager than anyone Melvin/Ash hired since (I suppose it remains to be seen with Counsell, who I like) Yes, hindsight is 20/20 but we can now see a lot of what could have happened instead of just grasping for the Brass Ring in 2011 and then becoming average to horrible ever since. But then that is why Doug Melvin is an ex-GM

As far as Lind/Estrada, that really remains to be seen in terms of what Lind can bring the Brewers on the trade market. Marco pitched very very well for Toronto in 2015, especially in the postseason. That trade speaks more to the general ineptitude of Melvin/Ash than as much of a fleecing, as Melvin/Ash failed to get young prospects for a good solid pitcher and instead got an injury prone 1B. If Lind can be flipped I'd call that even I suppose. Lind was the #14 best 1B in 2015 according to Fangraphs WAR. He has value, hopefully Stearns can flip him

Lawrie was traded along with a low minors SS, a replacement level MLB pitcher (who is, granted, young) and Sean Nolin who has a 6.89 career ERA for four seasons of Josh freakin' Donaldson. Lord have mercy