JosephC

Since the first wave of free agency is over, yesterday I played through a mock draft simulation- https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/mock-draft-simulator Instead of using the team needs listed on that site, I primarily used Dan Parr's updated team needs at NFL.com, and then used Ourlads depth charts for confirmation https://www.nfl.com/news/2026-nfl-draft-order-round-1-needs-for-all-32-teams https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/ When making the Packer's picks, I picked players that I thought Gutekunst would pick. So it's not a scenario of what I would do, but a prediction of what I think the Packers would do. Here were the results- 2-52 = Malachi Lawrence/EDGE/Central Florida 3-84 = Daylen Everette/CB/Georgia 4-120 = Jude Bowry/OT/Boston College 5-160 = Kaleb Elarms-Orr/LB/TCU 6-201 = Micah Morris/OG/Georgia 7-236 = David Gusta/DT/Kentucky 7-255= R.J. Maryland/TE/SMU

Murray is not a top player, but I think he's a legitimate NFL starting QB. Where he ranks on the scale of starting QBs....I'd probably stick him in at something like #20-#23. That said, #20-#23 is a massive improvement over JJ McCarthy. It really sucks as a Packer fan, because the Vikings weren't in a good position to upgrade the QB position this off-season, and they end up having a legitimate starting QB fall into their lap for at a rock bottom price. I think they will be much better even with a mediocre starting QB. McCarthy really held them back last year.

The people that were counting on two third round comp picks and two fourth round comp picks must be extremely disappointed now. Overthecap is projecting the compensatory pick for Walker as a sixth rounder. There is a chance that pick could be a fifth rounder, but a sixth round compensatory pick won't even be in the top 200. To me, bringing back Rhyan for 33 million and then losing Walker at a 10 million price-tag is a major misstep by Gutekunst. It would have been much easier to replace a very mediocre Rhyan with a player from outside the organization, especially with how good rounds two and three look with center candidates in this year's draft.

As incredibly unpopular as this would be, this is the one I would never consider unless it was a virtually improbable two year deal. Snap count percentage by year - 2022 = 46.34%, 2023 = 40.69%, 2024 = 51.20%, 2025 = 39.77%. Two significant injuries. And what is more concerning, those injuries weren't a guy putting his helmet right on his knee or getting a shoulder blown out in a scrum when diving for a loose ball. Those injuries are non-contact injuries. An optimist would write off the first one as a fluke, but it's happened twice with Watson. Watson will be good if he's healthy, but considering the history, a 4 year, 120 million dollar deal with something like 70 million guaranteed looks like a disaster waiting to happen.

I did some checking around (with people I trust) and Hargrave is not a traditional nose tackle. He played that spot last year for the Vikings, but Flores stunt-heavy defense constantly had him on the move. He's not a guy who will be able to take on two blockers and hold up. His 1 year with the 49ers, he played three-technique >90% of the time, and in the two years in Philly when Gannon was the defensive coordinator, he played the three-technique almost exclusively. I think his signing was to add more pass-rush and be additional insurance to go with Wyatt, which is a smart move as Wyatt's yearly snap count percentage has gone from 21.68% to 49.68% to 33.24% to 33.84%. Wyatt was up to 60% of the snaps in the games he appeared in last year, but then got hurt. I still think nose tackle is a significant need and will be addressed in the draft. As I see it, Wyatt, Hargrave, Brooks and very likely Brinson gets them to four defensive tackles. Average breakdown for NFL teams these days seem to be 10 defensive lineman/edge players, 5 off the ball linebackers and 10 defensive backs. So it definitely looks like there is still a spot to add a nose tackle, as Riley and Ford are more journeymen types at this point and Stackhouse was awful last year

If traded, it looks like Sweat's first year cap number for the new team would be about 12.7 million. I have the Packers roughly 29 million under the cap, and assuming that they likely want to have at least 15 million available entering the season...by my estimates they could make the deal money-wise, but it would likely be the last move they could make outside of a couple minimal, non-guaranteed deals later. While there may not be a huge market out there for Sweat, he has posted 37.5 sacks over the last 4 years so there would be a market. I don't think a 2027 4th round pick would be nearly enough to get it done.

I'm surprised by the Hargrave addition. He is 33 years old. I thought Gutekunst would not allow himself to sign a player over 30. I watched a highlight video on youtube, looks like those clips were pretty evenly split between him playing the nose and 3-technique. If anyone reads about his snap breakdown at each spot, please post a link.

The NFL has posted the 7-round draft order on their site, and the Packers only have one compensatory pick in the seventh round, not two as had been thought/expected/projected. 2-52 3-84 4-120 5-160 6-201 7-236 7-255 (compensatory)

Couldn't agree more. 1 year, 18 million for 11 games of sub-standard play and only 5 starts. That is a terrible investment. And it's very, very hard at this time to see the Banks deal becoming worth the investment.

Was there news about Aaron Banks getting a full restructuring on his deal? Overthecap now has completely different figures on his deal, including two void years stuck on the end of the contract. Looks like the roster and workout bonuses are still there, but his base salary has been reduced to the league minimum and the remainder of what would have been his base salary has been pushed into future years. 2026 cap number now down to just a shade over 12 million. I definitely don't like sticking void years onto the end of this deal, considering how bad it looked in year #1. Now looking, I do see this was reported by Jeremy Fowler two days ago.

Nate Hobbs has been informed that he will be released.

I put him as the #1 free agent in this class. When talking about all the other top free agents, they all had stuff like, "is relatively inexperienced," "had a bad year in 2024," "suffered through injury filled seasons in 2023 and 2024" attached to them. Every time Linderbaum's name came up, the talk was always something like, "how does a player this young and this good get to free agency." I agree that 27 million per year is too much. But I would pay him in the 20-22 million range ahead of paying Sean Rhyan 11 million in a millisecond.

St-Juste played in 66.8% of the Chargers special teams plays last year. He has started 47 games in his NFL career, mostly for the Commanders. Sounds like he can play boundary corner and inside. Apparently better at playing zone, leading one to believe Gannon will bring a lot more quarters coverage with him from Arizona. Seems like a good depth move to me as a very attractive price. This is exactly the type of "small" move that Gutekunst should have made at corner last year instead of thinking they would get through the season just fine with Nixon, Hobbs, Valentine and a bunch of undrafted guys. The special teams aspect makes it an even more attractive move.

Must have had Lukas Van Ness lined up on the other side to get ganged-up on like that.

I agree with everything you just said. My point was that it would be a stupid approach to use two first rounders on Parsons, and then avoid signing players the next off-season because you are afraid of losing a 4th round pick, or a couple 4th round picks. If you are going to sink two first rounders in a player, you need to put a team around that player. If you are scared of losing a 4th round pick, then what was the idea of sinking two first rounders and 160 million in cap space into one player?

overthecap is projecting a 4th round pick for Willis and a 6th round pick for Enagbare. One would think the 6th rounder for Enagbare will get cancelled by a free agent signing. As far as the Willis pick, that depends on how high Gutekunst plays in the market. When people were talking about 2 3rds and 2 4ths, I had figured the team was guaranteed to have at least one of the 4th round picks cancelled. I was thinking that the lower end free agent losses would offset many of the signings, but one of those lower end free agent losses would have been Rhyan, and now that he is back, that changes the lower end cancellation part somewhat. It's all really dependent on if Gutekunst approaches free agent signings. Will he just go for two high end guys and then maybe one lower end guy? Or does he just go with one high end guy and then four or five lower end guys. All this changes when the Packers start signing free agents. https://overthecap.com/compensatory-formula

This really hasn't come up on this board, but I've seen it mentioned on other websites how the Packers need to avoid certain free agent signings so they don't compromise possible compensatory picks for the 2027 draft. I don't get it. Everybody celebrates giving up 2 first round picks for an edge rusher in a clear "go for it" move in 2025. So the team starts off well and then completely flops down the stretch, one reason being is that the edge rusher got hurt. So then we move into season #2 with the edge rusher and all of a sudden we are worried about losing a fourth round pick? It's pretty unlikely the Packers will be playing in 20+ million APY territory, so in terms of the cancellation chart, a third round pick should be pretty safe no matter what they do in free agency. I don't know if Packer fans are gun-shy with free agents after Banks and Hobbs, but if there is a good free agent cornerback or offensive lineman or nose tackle that looks like he can help in 2026, it doesn't seem like the time the team should be worrying about losing a late fourth round pick.

It will be interesting to find out if the Gary deal goes through the NFL right away, or if the teams will wait and "process the trade through the league" after June 1st. If the trade is processed through the league immediately, Gary counts 17.042 million against the 2026 cap. If the trade is processed after June 1st, Gary counts 8.521 against the 2026 cap and 8.521 against the 2027 cap. That extra 8.5+ million could be the difference between cutting or not cutting a player like Nate Hobbs. Cowboys mandatory OTA happen mid-June, so it appears that there is no extra benefit for them if this trade is processed today or the first week in June. However, they are way over the cap, so there is a very good chance they will want to rework Gary's contract immediately to push down his 19.5 million dollar cap number. I'm pretty surprised the Packers got a 4th round pick for Gary. Good job by Gutekunst here. I was figuring the best they would get would be a 6th, or since they have so many 7th rounders this year, maybe get a 5th and send a 7th pick back along with Gary. It is a bit of a bummer that the pick is a 2027 pick, but still see this as a very good return engineered by Gutekunst.

The Rhyan deal has an 11 million dollar signing bonus, so it appears they are paying him to be a starter for the next two seasons. No other details out yet, but it's probably safe to assume the first year cap number will be $4,881,666.

Someone actually wrote in an article that a deal would be something like Carter for Rashan Gary, Karl Brooks and a second round pick. If that's the max that the Eagles could get for Carter...then Carter's reputation is so bad that he has pretty minimal value. Even when subtracting out the signing bonus money for Gary, he still would carry a 19.5 million dollar payout and cap hit in 2026 and a 22.5 million dollar payout and cap hit for 2027. I don't think there is much of a chance of a deal happening, but just for kicks, with the AJ Brown situation, the Eagles would probably be looking for a wide receiver. ILB-Nakobe Dean is a free agent. They have several EDGE players who are free agents, including Jaelan Phillips. Their top 3 TEs are free agents. So I would think names the Eagles would be looking at would include Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Edgerrin Cooper, Rashan Gary (Packers have to throw MORE in the deal to offset Gary's salary), Luke Musgrave (as a third piece, lottery type inclusion in the deal...the guy hasn't been good but there certainly are enough athletic tools there to work with), Dontayvion Wicks (third piece), Brenton Cox Jr (third piece). Get a couple "right" players and a second round pick, and maybe there is something that could work. From what I'm reading, it sounds like the Eagles have some motivation to deal Carter now.

The Eagles just gave DT-Jordan Davis a 3-year, 78 million dollar deal. It sounds like they are now actively shopping Carter to everybody and will deal him if they find the right deal. They are playing their cards right, a Carter trade is also being linked to the Vikings, so it looks like the Eagles may be trying to set up a bidding war between two division rivals. Seems like a recipe for disaster for the Packers. Howie Roseman >>>>>>>>>>>> Brian Gutekunst. Carter is a former Bulldog meathead, so there is no doubt that Gutekunst would really, really covet him.

Wow, that is pretty unbelievable. Rhyan lost the RG spot, then got below-average to bad grades for his work at center, and as we speak he now has the 5th highest contract at center in terms of APY (although there are 3 free agent centers that should easily beat that number in the next couple of weeks). The line really collapsed down the stretch and just handing Rhyan a starting job is very, very questionable. After four years of Josh Myers, and the ridiculous contract given to Aaron Banks, is it just safe to assume that Gutekunst has absolutely no skills when it comes to evaluating interior offensive line play? I had heard some support for bringing Rhyan back on a 2 year, 12 million dollar package to be in interior swing-man and be a band-aid until a rookie got up to speed, and I don't think that would have been an unreasonable move. But to give him a top 5 contract (likely top 9 contract after a couple weeks) and just hand him a starting job just seems like dumb move to me. Especially when looking at the free agent market and the pool of centers in this year's draft.

My off-season plan. Not a prediction of what the Packers will do, more what I would do in fantasy land. Cut Elgton Jenkins, Rashan Gary, Nate Hobbs, Zayne Anderson. Gary and Hobbs are both designated as post-June 1st cuts. Do not re-sign any of the unrestricted free agents. Bring back all of the rest of the restricted and exclusive-rights free agents for a look at in next year's training camp. Jenkins and Gary need no explanation. Why cut Hobbs? CB is #1 priority in free agency and it's very likely I'd be taking a cornerback within the first five rounds. So with Nixon, Valentine, free agent, rookie, plus Bullard who plays nickel and then fringe guys like Hadden, etc, the money that was going to Hobbs can be spent elsewhere. By my calculations using Overthecap, that gives me $50,384,452 in cap space and that is including the rookie salaries for next year. So for free agent salary estimates, the only comprehensive listing I could find was Sporttrac and their estimates looked low across the board to me. So I've added 20% to try and keep it real. Free agent signings- NT - DJ Reader - 1 year, 4.7 million CB - Jaylen Watson - 3 years, 45 million - cap numbers by year - 2026 = 10.667 million, 2027 = 15.667 million, 2028 = 18.667 million - I've looked at the top of the CB market and Watson is my favorite. I've seen his estimates mostly in 3 years, 42 million to 3 years, 45 million. I have seen one 3 years, 48 million, and I would do that but it's as high as I would go. LB - Alex Singleton - 1 year, 5.6 million G/C - Austin Corbett - 1 year, 3.0 million TE - Alex Trautman - 1 year, 3.4 million QB - Jimmy Garappolo - 1 year - 2.8 million - Note the Garappolo deal happens after the draft. I wouldn't do any QB signing prior to the draft in anticipation that I might take one to pair with Ridder. If Garappolo signs prior to the draft, then subtract him from this scenario, his 2.8 million could be spent elsewhere or banked. Draft (ran through nflmockdraftdatabase simulator)- 2-52 - LB - Anthony Hill Jr./Texas - Best player available. Really was hoping San Diego St cornerback Chris Johnson would make it down that far, but he didn't. I wouldn't have signed Alex Singleton had I known I'd be taking a linebacker here. There just wasn't an OLman, DLman or CB worth this pack (and no trade down offers), so I went with Hill who I thought was the best player available. 3-84 - C - Sam Hecht/Kansas State 4-120 - CB - Will Lee III/Texas A$M 5-159 - LT - J.C. Davis/Illinois - Note: Boston College LT Jude Bowry was available here. I prefer Bowry over Davis, but I don't think there is any chance that Bowry makes it down this far, so I took Davis. 6-201 - OT - Keagen Trost/Missouri 7-235 - DE - Mason Reiger/Wisconsin 7-253 - S - Ahmaad Moses/SMU 7-257 - DT - Cameron Ball/Arkansas After all of that, I'm left with $20,227,785 in cap space. So I should have plenty to get through the 2026 season. I would likely swing through the free agent market one time post-draft to look for back-end running back, tight end or cornerback addition. Rough depth chart - QB = Jordan Love, Jimmy Garappolo (FA), Desmond Ridder RB = Josh Jacobs, MarShawn Lloyd, Emanual Wilson, Chris Brooks WR = Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden, Dontayvion Wicks, Savion Williams, Bo Melton, Jakobie Keeney-James TE = Tucker Kraft, Adam Trautman (FA), Luke Musgrave, Josh Whyle OL = Jordan Morgan, Aaron Banks, Sam Hecht (R), Anthony Belton, Zach Tom, Austin Corbett (FA), J.C. Davis (R), Darian Kennard, Keagen Trost (R), Jacob Monk, Travis Glover, John Williams, Lecitus Smith, Donovan Jennings DE = Micah Parsons, Lukas Van Ness, Barryn Sorrell, Brenton Cox Jr,, Collin Oliver, Mason Reagor (R), Arron Mosby DT = Devonte Wyatt, D.J. Reader (FA), Colby Wooden, Karl Brooks, Warren Brinson, Cameron Ball (R), Jordon Riley, Nazir Stackhouse, Jonathan Ford LB = Edgerrin Cooper, Alex Singleton (FA), Anthony Hill Jr. (R), Isaiah McDuffie, Ty'Ron Hopper CB = Jaylen Watson (FA), Keisean Nixon, Carrington Valentine, Will Lee III (R), Kamal Hadden, Jaylin Simpson, Shemar Bartholomew S = Xavier McKinney, Evan Williams, Javon Bullard, Kitan Oladapo, Ahmaad Moses (R), Johnathan Baldwin K = Brandon McManus P = Daniel Whelan LS = Matt Orzech

Franklin sounds like a shorter version of Quay Walker. Good at stopping the run, god-awful in pass coverage. Last year Walker was credited with allowing 6.3 yards per target (that's not too bad), 3 touchdowns, 108.3 QB rating against. Franklin was credited with allowing 7.8 yards per target, 3 touchdowns, 111.5 QB rating against. I'm off the Pro Football Focus thing, but if you are into that, they ranked Franklin 87th out of 88 qualifying linebackers. I'm surprised at this move because Franklin will count 7 million against the cap, whereas Wooden's cap number was only at 1.3 million.

Probably really safe to say that Gary will be designated as a post-June 1st release. According to overthecap, this would put the Packers roughly 22 million under the cap, and that includes the upcoming rookie salaries.