JosephC

...but give me another 500 million dollars of taxpayer money so I can stay competitive.

When Dante Moore announced he was going back to Oregon, I had to take a look at what the NFL rookies are getting paid. I knew it was way more, but wasn't sure how much more in terms of guaranteed money. I see that many are getting their rookie contracts fully guaranteed, which for me was pretty surprising (considering they have proven nothing and so many of them bust). Last year picks, dollar amount is the fully guaranteed amount- #1 overall - Cam Ward = 48.8 million #5 - Mason Graham = 40.8 million #10 - Colston Loveland = 26.6 million #20 - Jahdae Barron = 18.0 million #32 - Josh Simmons = 14.6 million #40 - Tyler Shough = 10.8 million #50 - Elijah Arroyo = 6.8 million #64 - Andrew Mukuba = 4.1 million There might be a handful of players that can rake in the big bucks through NIL money. But it still looks like NIL money is not at all competitive with NFL Draft first round money, and probably 95% of round two guys are better off going pro.

Expansion? Time for about 16 teams to bail on MLB and start their own league. If enough owners are sick of the Dodgers, maybe that number can be even bigger than 16.

MLB sucks. Time to tune out if you don't live in LA or NY.

Someone will have to explain to me why Brian Flores is so attractive, or why he would be an upgrade over Matt LaFleur. Dolphins 2016-2018 (Gase) = 23-25 Dolphins 2019-2021 (Flores) = 24-25 Dolphins 2022-2024 (McDaniel - first 3 years) = 28-23 And Flores really didn't get fired when he was on the up. They went 10-6 in his second year, and then went 9-8 in his last year. He looks like a coach who went to a mediocre franchise and kept them at mediocre. Which IMO probably means he's a mediocre coach. Maybe he would be like what Belichick turned to be (unlike Flores, Belichick was a flop his first time around). But there is still nothing I see with Flores that would get me excited.

I have to admit, I look around for coaching candidates, and IMO this is the weakest field I can ever remember seeing. I do like Harbaugh, and he would probably be my favorite, but I'm not blown away. Stefanski is interesting. He actually put up winning seasons in Cleveland, which is impressive, but the overall record (45-56) just doesn't blow me away (even when factoring in the undeniable fact that he had been working for a joke organization). Thing that worries me about him is that, statistically, their defense has actually been pretty good over the last 5 years, and in those 5 years they have a 34-51 record. I'm not suggesting this should happen, in fact, I don't think I would want this to happen. But when looking at the candidates out there, I can't see me putting a list together that wouldn't have Mike McCarthy in the top 5. What I would say is, that after giving the whole situation some serious thought after the last few days, is that if I had to pick between McCarthy or LaFleur to be the Packers coach in 2026, I would pick McCarthy. It's just real simple, McCarthy has won some big games, LaFleur (and Gutekunst) have turned this organization into a 9-8, KO'ed in first playoff game franchise. That said, I really don't want McCarthy. Just putting this in here to show how weak I think the field is. Even though it's pretty clear at this point that Gutekunst will not get fired, why not talk about GMs? I like GM candidates much better. Alec Halaby, assistant GM from the Eagles, would be my #1. Has worked under Howie Roseman, Harvard graduate, on the cutting end of football analytics.

Sounds great, just water down the product even more..... There are so many great markets for MLB that two teams played in minor league ballparks last year. The regional aspect of the game is so great that, what, something like 1/3 of the leagues broadcast situation is up in the air and a general mess. So some dumb owner will pony up a 1 billion dollar expansion fee, the stupid general public will get swindled out of 2 billion to build a stadium...and what they will get is a small market team that has no chance to win a league championship because the league will work against them because they have concluded that it's bad business if a team outside of LA, NY, TX, CHI wins a World Series.

When was the last time an NFL head coach was retained because a buyout was prohibitive? There may be examples, I can't think of one. Also, how many NFL coaches get fired after year one of a multi-year deal? Seems to me there are plenty of examples of those. I don't think the length of extension means anything. Gutekunst and/or LaFleur could each get a 5 year contract, and if the team goes 5-12 in 2026, both of those guys would be fired (and in the case of the head coach, maybe before the season was over).

When looking at the numbers, one could make the argument that the 2/3's winning percentage is largely due to the previous HOF QB. These records include the playoffs. Unless I made a mistake somewhere, I have LaFleur's QB winning percentages as follows- Rodgers = 0.700 (49-21) Love = 0.548 (28-23-1) Willis = 0.667 (2-1) Tune = 0.000 (0-1) Under LaFleur, Packers win 70% of their games with Aaron Rodgers starting, Packers win 54% with a different quarterback starting.

I think Gutekunst would grade out as good to well-above-average (in terms of the draft only), but that would largely be due to the 2022 class which was pretty remarkable. Q. Walker (not great but a legit starter), Wyatt, Watson, Rhyan (again, not great but has started), Doubs, Tom, Enagbare, R. Walker is like 2 1/2 quality drafts stuck into 1. However, 2018 was Alexander who was very good early and Valdes-Scantling who has a role but is not a great player. Not much else. 2019 is Gary who is great when he wants to be but is near worthless when he doesn't want to be (which is about half the time), a really over-rated Savage and Jenkins who was excellent for a second round pick. Not much else to see here. 2020 was Love. Runyan is a marginal starter, good for a B-level team but a guy who a team will always be looking for an upgrade for. AJ Dillion was good in his role early but didn't last that long. 2021 draft was pretty much a disaster. First three picks were Stokes, Myers and Rodgers and none of them worked out. They got a left tackle in Van Lanen but didn't realize what they had. Slaton is a nose tackle that will give you a solid, honest days work. McDuffie is alright for what he is, getting a guy like him with pick #220 is definitely a good pick. 2023 first two picks don't look good (Van Ness and Musgrave). Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft are hits. Wooden, Wicks, Brooks, Valentine...may not be great but they all have roles. Even if you hate Valentine, he was a #232 pick. Wooden may not be great but he was a real god-send for the Packers. I'd argue the last two drafts are still probably too early to tell. Cooper and Williams likely to remain good players. IMO, can't really even judge guys like Jordan Morgan and Matthew Golden yet. I'm guessing, if you take out the 2022 class, that the rest of it would grade out as being pretty average. Including the 2022 class, somewhere in the good to well-above-average area.

ESPN must just love LaFleur. Every article about him says 76-40-1. They completely ignore the 3-6 playoff record. They completely ignore that he is 38-34-1 in the last 73 games (including playoffs). Lots of other coaches would get a "but" after their overall regular season record is posted, but not with LaFleur. Frankly, this organization has moved from great/good to very, very average since the core of the Thompson/McCarthy era disintegrated and the team became a Gutekunst/LaFleur assemblage.

If anybody wants to know why old guys like me stop watching games, and really only have interest in the sport in terms of personnel moves...well, here is a good example for you. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKjxL7-aJNw You'll have to click the link because the NFL blocks the video from being embedded here. #30 for Jacksonville. This is a pretty good example of why the NFL's crappy product is not worth watching. #30 for Jacksonville, that guy sucks. And if someone is going to get on here and say that he's a premier defensive back in the league...well...that is just all the more reason why not to watch. Season on the line, and #30 is just going to dance around and do a few pirouettes and basically not try to stop the ball carrier at all. What a joke!

McDermott now 8-7 in the playoffs. Certainly not eye-popping, but again, winning playoff games is hard. His playoff winning percentage of .533 is better than Don Shula, Sean Payton, Mike McCarthy, Pete Carroll and Mike Ditka. Also worth noting is that he started coaching the Bills in 2017. The last time the Bills had been to the playoffs was 1999. The last time they had won a playoff game was 1995. So it's not like he inherited a great situation in Buffalo.

You think the Packers are the Jets. The Packers are not the Jets. The Packers are an 9-8 team that will go to the playoff and will lose their first game. In the last four years, there has been one better season and one worse season...but basically anybody who looks at that last four years will conclude the same thing. Above-average football organization, nothing more, nothing less.

Regular season is hard to compare, because the AFC East has been a joke division since the Patriots tailed off. Still, the Bills have posted 7 straight 10+ win seasons. They haven't had an 8-9/9-8 .500 dropoff like the Packers did in 2022/2023. Winning in the playoffs is hard. Divisional strength still might play a role in the playoffs (home field), but things like that get largely wiped away. McDermott has a 7-7 playoff record. LaFleur has a 3-6 playoff record. So there is a big difference there. One thing that really weighs heavy in my evaluation of LaFleur is how they went into the 2021 playoff as the #1 seed and got KO'ed by the 49ers in their first game. They had home field, and blew it. Can't say that LaFleur didn't have as good of a QB, as Aaron Rodgers was the AP league MVP. Including that playoff game and all the games that have happened since, the Packers are on a 38-34-1 run (1-4 in playoffs). Looking at the complete picture...no, I don't think McDermott is MLF with a better quarterback. I think McDermott is a better NFL head coach.

One thing that I find funny is all the talk of next year being a "lame-duck" year for Gutekunst and LaFleur if they are not extended. Does that have any meaning in the NFL at all? I've never heard of an NFL team keeping a GM or coach because a buyout is prohibitive. How many NFL coaches have been given multi-year deals and then are fired after the first year? I'm guessing too many to count. So if Gutekunst and/or LaFleur are each given big, shiny new contracts, does anybody think either of them have a job with the Packers in 2027 if the 2026 record is 4-13? Not a chance.

One key thing that I haven't seen mentioned regarding Harbaugh. Gutekunst hired Milt Hendrickson away from Baltimore the year after he got the GM spot. Hendrickson was a top scout for the Ravens, and seemingly has been Gutekunst's right hand man since he was brought in. If Harbaugh respects Hendrickson, and the Ravens were really good when both Harbaugh and Hendrickson were there (Super Bowl championship, 4 division titles), it might make Green Bay a more attractive location for him if he has a level of comfort with the front office and scouting knowing that Hendrickson is here.

46.5 sacks in 106 games means he wants to play about half the time. This guy is a supreme talent and has always underachieved going way back to his Michigan days.

Gary is definitely a pass-rusher...but only when he decides he wants to play.

Thought this would make an interesting poll. I have never set up a poll before in this forum, so if it all looks kind of botched...oh well.....

If Gutekunst is out, my favorite to be the next GM. https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/team/front-office/alec-halaby And not because he's a Wisconsin man, but because he has a nerd-like Stearns times two reputation with statistical analysis and will nearly always be the smartest guy in the room.

Said it a few days ago and I'll say it again. 2 months back I thought the suggestion of LaFleur getting fired was comical. But the record is what it is. Last 4 seasons, regular season record of 37-30-1, and a 1-3 playoff record. They lost the first playoff game in 2021, so the last four trips to the playoffs has resulted in a 1-4 record. Policy would be completely justified to clean house. And why does Hafley have such a great reputation anyway?

SEC KO'ed. ESPN demanding a recount.

He gets no credit for winning a Super Bowl with mediocre-at-best Joe Flacco as his starting QB?

Miami Dolphins, number of playoff games coached- Don Shula = 31 All the rest = 12 Considering how the playoffs have expanded, it's pretty impressive that Shula is that far ahead of the rest of the field. Of the Miami Dolphins playoff victories, he was the head coach in 85% of those wins.