Austin Tatious

In my last paragraph, I was conceding and acknowledging that player identification is the biggest issue, even if you want to play the lower slot value game. In the run up to the 2014 draft, I recall media reports about how the Brewers were enamored with Medeiros as an athlete. They worked him out and brought him up. He had some Brewer hype even before the pick was made. It's the scouts' and director's jobs to get it right. And they report to the GM at the top of the org chart. Medeiros had a ton of helium and was taken early. You can't give any of them a pass when you see a kid like Sheffield thriving. The Brewers had an injury problem with Mark Rogers but a number of others before that, to wit Mike Jones, Nick Neugebauer, you could go on and on. They hit on Jake Odorizzi out of high school, but then went college arms like Jungmann, Bradley, Heckathorn, Arnett. Back to high school with Medeiros. College or high school, whatever tools the Brewers were looking at, they kept consistently whiffing. It's not about having a crystal ball. It's about scouting, and looking at the right attributes that translate. And you see a number of posts here arguing that so-and-so was taken third or fifth, so he was the third or fifth ranked player. That's a complete fallacy. Players are picked on a combination of how good they are, and the team's bonus pool strategy. Some teams game the system in attempt to get some overslot guys later in the draft as the Brewers have done in the cases of Harrison, McClanahan, Gatewood and others. On the other hand, the year the Brewers took Mitch Haniger out of college, they passed on Joey Gallo out of high school who was more expensive. So, no, it's not true that any given player was considered the best prospect at a slot. He was considered the best prospect for the team within their bonus pool strategy. Many of these arguments for drafting were made in real time on this site, so it's not a matter of playing hindsight or talking about a crystal ball. Judgements and strategies are made by the FO and asking questions about the strategies is more than fair.

No argument here. I don't really want to debate minutiae that no one can prove beyond circumstantial evidence. However, if they pass on a potential TOR who goes overslot later at a lower pick, and Milwaukee goes underslot, that would disappoint me. I'd have to double check, but I believe Miami and Boston went overslot on Garrett and Groome. They ultimately did sign, though. I know Miami and Boston are ecstatic that they got those guys as I've checked media reports in both locations and elsewhere. Miami thinks they got another Cliff Lee. The Bosox think they are playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers. Three recent titles, a number of high end young major leaguers, and a few high end prospects. The Bosox got Jason Groome at 12. The Brewers at 12 took Kodi Medeiros and Taylor Jungmann. Jose Fernandez supposedly had Scott Boras say he wanted to be in Florida. If you come across that situation at the ninth pick this year, I would not run from it. Fernandez was obviously a phenomenal talent. With the time value of money and the risk he'd be taking, it would be rational to take a Milwaukee offer even if they have to go overslot, if you're getting a TOR talent. Milwaukee ended up with Jungmann. Enough said. But, yes, I agree that the most important thing is having scouts who can identify the right talent. As an example, the Brewers took Medeiros in 2014. They saved some money and signed Gatewood and Harrison (away from a Neb football scholly). But, even under that strategy, they could have taken Sheffield who was taken later and is doing much better. At this point, we are just resorting to blind hope that Medeiros can become enlightened with his command. I'd call it a long shot. Meanwhile, Sheffield is on a solid trajectory.

Because I'm coming from out of town, I can't make a ton of games. But, when I come up, the family enjoys the Gehl club. The food in there is plentiful but underwhelming, especially if you compare it to club seating elsewhere. I wonder if they are upgrading that food? The concessions at Miller Park have out of whack pricing. I bought concessions at MP and then when the Brewers were in Chicago, attended a game at Wrigley in the same year a couple of seasons ago. I noted that the concession prices in Wrigley were lower. In the back of my mind, I irrationally thought that the expensive food (and apparel) I was buying at MP was "supporting the team" which indirectly may help them compete. The Brewers have always done an excellent job of marketing their "small market constraints" to the fans, all the while charging big bucks at the park.

This discussion can be had without any reference to Corey Ray. I never mentioned his name. Ray hit almost .250 in the cluster mess of BC right out of college, so that's promising. I'm rooting for Ray, as I do all Brewer players and prospects. He comes across as a great kid.

The Brewers have certainly done a poor job at identifying talent at the top of the draft. However, passing on a better talent to save money for later picks is not what is needed at this time.

BCD 80, I agree completely. I'd like to see them take the best player available and not try to outsmart the system. If Tristan Beck is there, you have to like the profile and what this franchise needs. We aren't other ball clubs. We can't go get a TOR starter in a spending spree. If someone else passes on a top flight pitcher, that's their problem. Sure, saving money allows for an overslot guy or two later. It is nice to get a Chad Mcclanahan in the 11th round who profiles as a high upside first baseman batting lefty at 6'5. But what this organization needs even more is multiple high end pitchers. Everybody has their price. If Beck is interested in being drafted, then step up, draft, and pay him. Note that Garrett and Groome both signed. When you're drafting as high as ninth, if you give a good offer, you will get your man. It's rational for the player. Getting picked ninth is a nice payday and with the time value of money, they will take it especially because of the risk of injury etc. The fear of Fernandez not signing so you took Taylor Jungmann is buckling to posturing. Don't do that. Take your guy and pay him. We don't need a ton of overslot later picks at this point in time. We've got depth already. We need elites. There may be another situation that dictates the underslot strategy, but that time is not anytime soon in Milwaukee.

I don't know about you guys but I really enjoy mock drafts. This one explains itself well. He's using the mock as a way to discuss prospects. The writer knows it's absurd this early and particularly to match to a team. I've been following Ellis' work for awhile and it is very enjoyable for draft junkies. I excerpted his Brewer pick and JJ Schwarz, a top catching prospect. Ellis didn't mention it but I believe we drafted Beck out of high school, but at a spot where we knew he wouldn't sign. To me, Beck or Schwarz would be very interesting. EDIT. I forgot the link initially. Ridiculously Early 2017 Mock Draft http://www.scout.com/mlb/indians/story/1713215-ridiculously-early-2017-mock-draft

Hopefully some of those guys get up to Biloxi by mid-season, including Ray, Bickford, and Ponce. It will be a clean slate for the hitters, so hopefully they can get rolling.

Great news. Looking forward to your reports next season, Muddie.

Interesting. Johnson has a software, management, and stats background. In the end, he has actual baseball scouts feeding him information. Baseball evaluation has to be part of the equation, obviously. It's early to judge Montgomery. He seemed to be an improvement over Bruce Seid (RIP) but time will tell. I like that he went after upside rather than pedestrian guys with lower ceilings who performed now. But we need time to tell whether his draftees fare better than those from prior years, inasmuch as prior drafts were an unabashed disaster. I'd like to know what's really going on behind the scenes here. You'd think Montgomery needed more time on draft evaluations, but maybe Stearns is looking for something more sympatico with his philosophies.

Great question. He was really promising. I seem to remember Doug not being super kind about his issues, whatever they were. I think he frustrated management with whatever happened.

That is so shocking. What a tragedy. I was a fan of his. This is very crushing.

Good post, Noche. I agree on all the guys you mentioned. I don't know about top 25 yet, because we have tremendous depth, but I agree that Garcia is under the radar and was a very good draft investment. He looks talented. I thought he was a catcher in the draft. Has he been switched away from catcher? Feliciano shows promise. He seems athletic to me. Erceg has all the tools. I used to really be excited about Mat Gamel as a pure hitter from the left side at 3rd when he was coming up. In the end, even before his injuries, we didn't see it. But, I get that same positive feel for Erceg that I had for Gamel, but in a more athletic form. It may be a funny comparison because Gamel didn't work out, but Erceg can flat out hit and has an athletic gear that Gamel couldn't get to. High hopes here. I followed Lara's box scores. Very slow start but he quietly came on strong. The kid has tools. Plenty of time for him to come on. Demi was somewhat down but he's raw and there is tremendous potential if he figures it out. I liked the upside of a number of guys in the draft, when you look at young guys like McClanahan, Francisco Thomas, Peyton Henry, Garcia, Zach Clark. Not all of them will work out obviously, but I like what we are aspiring to, here. Upside. That's on top of some of our high picks who look good at a more predictable level, including Ray, Erceg, and Corbin Burnes. Overall, that is probably the most I've been excited about the depth of a Brewer draft in a long time. We do need the elite arm talent investments, still.

I hope Nunez was suspended. He punched a guy who was held by two other guys, and then backed away. That is some serious chicken stuff there. I kind of liked our unis. I forgot about that vintage.

Adam McCalvy was on the post-game show on WSSP last night. They talked Braun-Puig. "They came very, very, very close to trading him" (and that can be revisited). McCalvy said that the prospects were "prospects. prospects...legit." I do not know how to italicize, but if you heard it, he emphasized prospects the second time, and then said "legit." McCalvy is assuring us here. He said it with authority. He probably knows who was discussed under secrecy and he's telling us they are legit prospects, without giving away the names.

No, the point is that the Giants do not have the prospects it would take to get Braun. Of course, they'd love to have him in their lineup in a win-now mode.

Interestingly, PTI picked up this as about their fourth story on their scroll. They spoke very highly of Braun and thought the Dodgers needed to do it, regardless of who the prospects are. They were stupified as to why Mikwaukee would do it. Tony rattled off Braun's very impressive numbers.

I agree. I would be open minded to see what offers we get for Thorny but potentially try to capitalize next summer. Multiple contenders will need top relievers, you can count on that. I'd expect high bids next summer. Thorny has arm talent. A former third round draft pick, he quickly was one of our top prospects. There was always concern about his height, so reliever was always in the back of our minds. But, he's always been well thought of and legit. He has found his groove. His breaking ball is a nasty wipe-out pitch. His K rate is excellent as others pointed out. He's going to be in demand. I was always in the camp that we'd get a haul for Will Smith, and we did. Smith is a hoss and southpaw, but Thorny may actually be a top of the line closer. To make a long story even more excruciating, I'd see if we can get a haul in the winter (to avoid the risk of a catastrophic injury), but next summer may be the real time to deal Thorny. I like that we kept our powder dry for a number of other deals for next year, like Thorny and Braun, but a few others. In the next period, 2016 draftees will be available to be dealt, plus there will be new data and reports about possible acquisitions.

Jacob Nottingham, Max McDowell, Mario Feliciano, Jose Sibrian, and Dustin Houle disagree. Maybe even Carlos Leal too, somewhere. Of course if they could get a great deal on Mejia, they'd be nuts not to take it, but catching isn't anything they need to be singling out as a need. Every minor league system can rattle off some names and pretend they have half a dozen prospects at any position. We have hopes for Feliciano and Payton Henry in particular as they are so young, and hopefully some of the folks you mentioned can upset the projections and develop. Maybe Nottingham can develop as he's still young for his level. The cold hard reality is we do not have any likely average MLB catchers that you can point to based on anything we have seen. So, you're left with blind hope. Thars ok for fans I guess, but we need an infusion of talent at catcher in a more realistic view. After top of rotation pitcher, catcher is a screeching loud need. The Brewers ought to take a long look at JJ Schwarz in the next draft at catcher. You may even be able to get him underslot, but that sure as heck should not drive the decision.

I know you are passionate in your analysis but this is just over the top, looking for someone to call you out on it. Just stop it with this stuff. Briggs is a good poster and can defend himself, but I interpreted his comment as meaning that prior to Lucroy, the Brewers struggled at catcher. He wasn't including Lucroy. Being concerned about the catching position is a very valid concern.

The idea that a soft tossing pitcher would benefit from a pitcher throwing gas the next night is false. You might try to throw the opposition off by having heat-soft tosser-heat so the third pitcher benefits from the speed differential from the soft tosser the night before. Not the other way around. Regardless, the Brewers have Davies in that role. Get guys that are good pitchers. The better strategy is getting talented guys who can pitch and have arm talent. It's takes perseverance, good eye for drafting, and player development. Then you have a rotation that can win big.

I agree with rwa and others. I like Suter as a potential lefty out of the pen.

Sedar is not the sharpest knife in the drawer. I don't like seeing people lose their jobs, but hopefully he could be reassigned in the organization (in a position with lots of oversightof him).

The Brewers need to get out of the strategy of trying to draft underslot guys in the first round on the hope of getting a good player in a later round. It's over-thinking the process. Get the best dang talent on the board on the first round. The Brewers need high quality. The underslot concept is a failed strategy.

Yeah this whole thing is fascinating. One answer is resolved, though. The Dodgers have legit interest and its a plausible scenario. The biggest issue is who were the two prospects. We have no idea, obviously. For us to take back a huge salary and a malcontent, I'd imagine they'd be two solid prospects. We wouldn't need to take bavk McCarthy and Puig unless there was something good in it for us.