Austin Tatious

Two points: 1) That's unknowable currently. 2) Prospect rankings are not the end game - fielding a talented big league team is. Whether Groome (whom 10 other teams besides the Brewers passed on - clearly they all can't be stupid?) or Garrett are ranked higher than Ray a year from now on Prospect List X is immaterial. I'm interested in what each of those players are doing 10 years from now. Ray has the talent to outperform both before even considering the high flameout rate of high school pitchers. And I say both of those things as someone who would have preferred Garrett or Groome over Ray. This is a fair point. I am telling you what other teams are saying about the guys they drafted based on their media.

To Tongue, spare me the lecture, kid. You're putting a ton of words in my mouth that were never uttered. That's my full response because I will not entertain strawman arguments. They are lazy, amateurish and lack any kind of intellectual depth. Until you discuss the actual points I am making accurately, figure out your own issues before you start lecturing people. Full stop. Look guys, if you don't like my comments, all of which are valid opinions, then counter them intelligently without childish petulance, and I will respect you. I am here to discuss counter opinions brought with facts, data, past experiences, and one to one points and counter-points, etc. If you know my posting history, I am generally fairly positive. But, I like reasonable and fair discussion with scrutiny of the organization where warranted. There was a poster who wanted me suspended because he didn't like criticisms. I'd have to look up who it was, but I am probably better off not remembering so as not to associate any individual poster, and not escalate this further. i am not here to ridicule anyone. Have your opinion, and I will have mine. I don't get the need to throw a temper tantrum every time a poster questions something.

I find it curious that some of you think that our drafting policy is hunky dory will be the first ones in the transaction forum in a couple of years pounding the table that we will never get Brady Aiken, Braxton Garrett, Jason Groome etc in a trade. The young pitchers will vault high in the prospect rankings, higher than our guys. So, you certainly realize the value of these high end prospects. Now take the next step and get them in here. We can't keep drafting weak armed left fielders year after year. I do like some prospects with upside like McClanahan, Thomas, Henry. You can hope there's a Corey Hart level guy or two coming out of tgat mix. I liked the Orimolye pick. Lara was a nice get internationally. It's the top of the draft that's the issue.

At the time that was a good haul and all three had/have high ceilings. Pretty hard not to like what they did there. If it doesn't work out oh well, but I won't call it a bad choice. I liked the Gatewood and Harrison picks at the time. But my heart sank when we drafted Medieros. It's very disappointing to make picks like that year after year. Montgomery may be new, but I doubt the entire scouting staff is. I wouldn't compromise to get a Medeiros to get a nicer player in the second or third picks. There may be situations where that's warranted, just not now under these circumstances. Our top 30 is fine. That's not the issue. It's the top ten. That can only be resolved by getting top guys. The really good players are good, and rake quickly. They're good. Everyone knows they're good and not flawed to a great extent like these guys.

His stuff is not filthy by definition if he lacks command. If anyone is counting on Kodi to be a TOR starter, you're in Lala land. It could happen as an unexpected surprise, but you're hoping not expecting. Big difference. Cody Ponce, Josh Hader, and Marcos Diplan are where you guys need to be more hopeful. But there's significant questions about the player development aspect. Arnett, Bradley, Heckathorn, Coulter, Roche, Jungmann, Haniger. Ty Taylor. All are spectacular failures. You'd expect to Forrest Gump your way to 3 good picks that high just by sheer luck. You can sit there in denial all day long while the Cards restock without falling off a cliff and the Cubs have an endless supply of elites and the Brewers have none of beyond Arcia. Not to mention the Pirates, who draft top guys well. The Brewers have failed policies and failed logic in drafting and in lower level player development. You can fantasize outside realistuc projections all you want. I keep up with other markets. The Miami folks think they got another Cliff Lee in Braxton Garrett. Boston thinks they outsmarted everyone and got the best player in the draft in Groome. Every team in the league can tell you that pitchers with 6.00 eras and zero idea where the ball is going in the lower Minor's will be their next ace. There is no basis to conclude the Brewers are on any track of serious success based on what we have now under our failed logic and process. If the Brewers don't reverse course and fix it in the next 2-3 drafts, we may stay down. See 1993-2005.

Fantastic get is a massive stretch. "Fantastic gets" roar through your system and become all stars. The hope for these guys is as complimentary pieces. If it works out, these are helping pieces. You can't have that coming off a lousy season. At some point, you're just going to have to draft a star high in the draft. A no-brainer pick, where you aren't scared of your own shadow or Scott Boras or saving money to throw more money at a mediocrity a round or two later in the hope you get a back end starter or middle reliever.

Exactly. There is no basis for stating that Braun is about to drop off at the laughably young age of 32. Nil. You've got posters on here acting like 32 is the equivalent age for an NFL running back. It's comical. If you understand baseball and the history of players of Braun's caliber, he can easily hit well until the age of 37. Or else teams, not just Milwaukee, wouldn't sign players to big deals in their 30s.

There is no way I would trade Braun for Zach Wheeler straight up. Talk about an injury concern! Good grief. I have no problem with Braun being a Brewer for life. He cheated and, even worse, lied about it. It's tough, but I have forgiven him. His offensive talent is insane. 32 is not crazy old. He's not a running back in the NFL where a 32 year old would be certifiably Geritol regulars. Molly had injury concerns and then cranked out 1500 hits after being 32. Baseball players can do fine after the age of 32. Some people are taking Braun's production for granted. There is a broad swath of more casual Brewer fans that will go ape ship ballistic if the Brewers undersell on Braun. As mentioned above, if you understand market factors, it is clear that Braun's contract is not out of line, and numbers are frankly going up from here. The real concern with Braun is nagging injuries. But, he is a pure hitter. There aren't many people at any given time that have the combination of offensive tools that Braun has and there is no reason why any player can't have success until their age 37 season. If you're in a pennant race and you can get Braun, who's on pace to have a very good season, even with mark downs for loss of games. Take the missed games into consideration and he's still a .310 28, 100 guy. Can I interest you in that? the same guys who say we won't get much for Braun were pounding the table that we wouldn't get as much as we did for Gomez. Besides negotiations, market value and contracts, if that's not your thing, if you just look at baseball, the Brewers will absolutely go in the crapper without Braun and Lucroy. What's more pressing, though, is this franchise won't have anyone on the horizon that is a Braun level player. This is simply not the Astros or Cubs systems yet. So, you'd be looking at a phenomenally bleak situation once you trade them. Nobody wants to be terrible with nothing on the horizon but a bunch of .250 or less hitters with average power. Lucroy will get a haul. That's a given. If it's a matter of not getting value for Braun, I am not moving him and I am going with the Brewer for life concept. At least we would have a breathtaking offensive talent.

Sure, anything can happen with Medeiros. The ratio of finding an Arrieta is less than 1/1000 for pitchers drafted that low. It's flawed to look at a total outlier and then act like it's probable. But if you want to have a realistic assessment of your system, Medeiros is a kid with limited command who projects to be a loogy if he improves dramatically. Perhaps he can turn into Will Smith, but that's asking a lot. There is no rational reason to project him to be a TOR starter. Could it happen? Sure. That would not be operating in any kind of rational projection. We can all hope for it while functioning in realistic projections. If you sit there and project Medeiros to be a TOR starter, then you will have a disastrous front office banking on hopes and fantastic dreams. You take a terrible team the year prior, win some extra games, and then get relegated to drafting Medeiros. It's playing checkers with the 12th pick when Boston takes Groome with the 12th pick while playing chess. The Brewers take an under slot guy in Medeiros, a guy who can be a bullpen arm, to try to get better players later in Harrison and Gatewood. It's time to abandon this failed approach. If you're high in the draft, take a high talent. You can't hide from Scott Boras. This is a competitive sport. You will have to deal with Boras and his ilk if you want to win. What do Molly, Robin, Fielder, and Braunie have in common? They were top 7 picks. That's how you draft major talents high. That's the chance we have in the next three drafts.

Anybody hearing anything on Chad McLanahan and/or Zach Clark? I've been googling these guys and not hearing anything. With all the underslot signings, maybe they can satisfy McLanahan. He's open to something if the Brewers can get close. He'd be a nice coup. Keep your fingers crossed.

I liked the unis as an alternative. I don't claim to be a color expert but it looked like the Carolina blue. In general, I like our assortment of jerseys and caps.

Yeah, that is funny. We were a terrible ball club the year that happened, and what do we have to show for it? Kodi Medeiros! That is not going to get it done. Bad season should lead to a very good piece. This organization has to get away from the middling talent guys in the first round. Aside from atrocious drafting, there are significant questions about the talent development in the lower, developmental minors. We've had too many guys with tools not develop. Other than Charlie Greene, I hope Stearns is not afraid to take a good long look at each coach and instructor in rookie and class A. It's not going well down there. When you couple bad drafting with bad player development, it's not a good recipe.

The 2018 pick is where Milwaukee should be picking super high. After some trades, I'd expect the 2017 season to be dismal, wall to wall. Then, in 2018, hopefully some young players start putting it together but, really, the 2018 season could net yet another top 10 pick for 2019. That ought to be four consecutive top ten picks. None of this will ever matter, though, unless the Brewers draft elite talents at the top of the draft. While there is some system depth, the organization likely doesn't have the next elites in place yet. These next three drafts should not be about saving money at the top and horsing around with slot savings but rather grabbing true difference makers. System depth is fine. We don't need extra money to pay the 73rd pick. What is needed is big time star talent at the top of the draft. You aren't beating the Cubs for the next decade without them.

Isn't he 6'2 (and solidly built)?

Great thread. Thanks for the updates. I somehow had overlooked it. Monte Harrison is at .215 which is quite an improvement from the buck-fifty he was hitting well into the season. Diaz has risen to the .230 level after scuffling at the Mendoza line. Whereas Harrison and Diaz are decidedly trending upward, Gatewood has been more up and down. He is down to the .230's but trending down for the moment as he lifted his average to around .270, after a slow start. So, he's been up and down. Coulter is another one who is starting to improve. But right now, we have to be very pleased with Nottingham who is really hitting well after a slow start, particularly with the aggressive assignment. Allemand is another showing promise as noted.

I would be disappointed with Wheeler for Lucroy. The good news is that Stearns is reportedly driving a hard bargain. The major fallacy some of you who constantly want to undersell our talent make is you don't understand negotiating. Fundamentally, you have to look at it from the buyer's point of view and market Brewer players accordingly. First, some of these buyers may be nervous that their direct competitor could get our guys. That is clearly an issue in multiple divisions. Second, some teams may realize that, due to age and circumstance of existing core, that their legitimate chance to win is in the next year or two. They can get into go-for it mode. Milwaukee needs to bargain from a position of strength, which I am sure they are. You help create an atmosphere of urgency on the other side. The other side needs to believe in the value to them that you are presenting. This is negotiating 101. No, you will likely not get a clear cut upper level ace prospect in a trade. That is why it is absolutely vital to spend first round picks on your ace pitcher. Your real shot to get an ace in a trade is a lottery ticket prospect like Marcos Diplan who is dealing. Thus, sure, Giolito or Urias are off the table. That's another fallacy people have. They point out that many pitchers drafted high never make it. That's never the point. The way to look at is that most of the Chris Sale, Alex Fernandez type aces come out of the (mostly top half) of the first round. You may miss on a high draft pick but that's part of it and you likely will have to take multiple hacks at it. But, an outfielder like Robles? You can absolutely probe that in a trade. The Nats have a mature team that is ready to win. And they have to deal with the Mets who can be in the same sweepstakes. Same with the Giants and Dodgers in the west.

Arroyo is interesting, but nothing amazing. If he could show a little more selectivity, it would really enhance his stock. The guy just doesn't walk very often. I read where he might profile best as a 3B. But he doesn't hit for much power (at least at this time). I hear you - fair points. But Arroyo is hitting .300 at AA at age 21. He may still develop and has good pedigree as a former first rounder. I agree he seems destined for 3b and you'd like more power than a 15 HR type there. Between Bickford and Beede, it's interesting. Bickford is three years younger. So, he's more unknown. Beede is 23 already and not off to a great start at AA. I'd have to defer to the scouts on who has the higher upside. Shaw as a 3rd piece makes sense.

I like the idea of Christian Arroyo as a piece. Then either Beede or Bickford. Both seem like 3/4 starters. Maybe throw in a lottery ticket.

I'd be very happy with that deal. Now, we are talking. If we have to add a pitcher with Lucroy, I am open to that.

Probably my two favorite picks along with Burnes. Henry is comparable to Nottingham coming out of school. Exactly the type of kid we should be looking for, especially in that range. Love Thomas' projection at third and upside. Athletes at 3b and catcher - keep going there, again and again.

Thanks for all your reports, Colbyjack. They are a real treat. Burnes sounds like a steal. Gotta be happy there. Zack Brown - the front office sounds enamored with raw skills even if production doesn't warrant it. Not a pick I like. You're still in a range where you could get value there. Webb - if it all works out, possible reliever. We will see. We draft guys like this every year. Maybe he can be a Thorny.

Guerra has been a revelation.

Massive pass on that one. Stay away from the Mets. They aren't a good partner. But do try to get a rotation like theirs. That's what to emulate.

Kyle Funkhouser is a cautionary tale on overplaying your hand and getting your bluff called. He had some high pick buzz which I recall because I was terrified we would take him. His name at one point was associated with Milwaukee until he free fell right before the draft.

I like the Payton Henry pick. He was someone I read up on before the draft and saw good reviews. Hopefully he ends up better than Coulter who won't be a top 30 prospect much longer (along with Ty Taylor and several others who will be displaced after we start making trades for back end of the rotation guys and lottery tickets). We have a number of under slot guys so, Henry can be given a little cushion.