Austin Tatious

1.7 Delvin Perez. I believe I've seen some mocks that way.

Good stuff, Billymac. I've wondered about Cleveland but I just don't know about their FO thinking about moving their prospects. Lucroy would probably match well with their strong starters. I don't know what they'd do with their existing catcher. Having him be part of the deal I suppose could work as long as we don't get short changed on prospects. Bradley is interesting as a power guy but I just don't know if he's a well rounded hitter. I'd definitely be interested in Aiken, especially if we don't draft Groome. Pint and Aiken both have risk but could be an interesting 1-2, righty-lefty combo coming at the Cubs' formidable lineup. Sheffield is another lefty. Good call on the catching prospect, Meija. Nottingham is hardly a sure thing so having depth and competition is interesting. If we have to come back with a reliever to get a good package done here, I'd consider it. Meija, Aiken, and either Sheffield or Frazier, plus a lower rated teen could be interesting.

Great research, Eye Black, on Ray Montgomery. High upside would indicate Jason Groome, Riley Pint, Delvin Perez, Micky Moniak, and Blake Rutherford. You can see he has taken some high school pitchers like Touissant, Bradley etc. So, no reason to think he would be afraid of Groome and Pint. I'd be skeptical about Ray and Senzel being under strong consideration.

Reilly, I'm enjoying the community vote. I enjoy these consensus type endeavors. 1.6 Nick Senzel

1.5 Riley Pint I'm worried about Perez though.

1.4 Micky Moniak

Wow the Boston writers are so generous. Braun and Lucroy for Swihart and Sandoval. That's classic mental masturbation. That's not even close to fair. The Brewers would need to add Jimmy Nelson and Will Smith for that to be closer to fair. You may need to add Jeffress to get the Bosox to actually follow through.

I have the MLB pass so I've Shelby Miller. He has good arm talent but he's showing no further development. There's no upward tick with his career. He's already been traded twice. He's not a reliable kid; he's oft-injured with something or the other. The lack of durability is a huge negative. Jimmy Nelson is trending upward. He's a tough competitor who will battle even on nights without his best stuff. And he's taking the ball every fifth day with the goal of going deep into the game. Nelson, unlike Miller, is showing further development every year. His repertoire is improving. Miller has leveled off. Stearns and Arnold have two choices. 1. Trade Nelson for a haul comparable to what Miller got. 2. Keep him and enjoy the benefits. There is no acceptable answer on Nelson that would be "trade him for less than the return on Miller." That would be malpractice.

Jimmy Nelson isn't even remotely close to Shelby Miller. Jimmy Nelson doesn't have an MLB track. Shelby Miller had two seasons with an ERA near 3.00. 10 good starts is absolutely nothing. A few bad starts and his ERA will explode. To have an ERA that low all season you have to be very good and very consistent. I will agree their peripherals are similar, but track record and results goes a long way for trade value. I think a Shelby Miller type trade is what the Brewers would look for, but I seriously doubt anyone is going to offer that if he has half a good season. You never know though... Agree to disagree. Big time. We are way off in our views. I wouldn't trade Nelson for Miller straight up.

Regarding the Dodgers, rather than Bellinger, I'd prefer some of their toolsy Cuban prospects., who are younger and not as highly ranked yet. Their names are not on the tip of my tongue but I've read about them before. Electric arms and toolsy players.

Look at what the Braves got for a comparable kid in Shelby Miller. Dansby Swanson who has all star potential. If you look at what teams have gotten in prospects for Ken Giles, Hammel, Samrdijza, Shelby Miller, Carlos Gomez and others, various bars have been set. I think we trade off guys piecemeal. But I'd expect good returns for some of our assets. We can be creative to get things done. The key is getting some high end prospects, even if younger. We have depth in our system, we need more tools you higher rated guys. For example, I don't see the level of talent yet that the Cubs had on the horizon. There's more time, granted, but that's where we need to head.

I've thought forever that the Rangers were the ideal match on Luc. They (Jon Daniels) have done a great job stocking their system. They have depth and I believe are a match. Something ought to be do-able to be worked out between the two clubs. I'm not totally sold on Gallo. I definitely wanted us to draft him over Haniger. He was a well known draftee at the time. I'm not saying he's bad. But I have questions about his athleticism at 3rd and whether offensively he's essentially Chris Carter. If you look at their prospect list, I might be intrigued by a different package. As for Princie, I seriously doubt he's complerely lost. More a situation of a huge funk. He doesn't make sense for our rebuild, age-wise, unless it enables us to get a huge return, kind of how the Braves got Touki Touissant by taking on a bad contract.

1.3 Atlanta, P Jason Groome

Kyle Lewis, OF at 1.2 to Reds

I'm not crazy about the Mets' depth of prospects. Some of their better prospects have been called up or moved on. I'd prefer Luc go to a franchise with more stacked of a system. Texas, Houston, maybe Nats. If you look at the major league level, Wheeler is already 26. That seems old for what we are trying to do. He is starting to throw now with an eye toward a July return. https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/wheeler-throws-off-slope-of-mound-for-first-time-since-surgery/179807494

There is a huge demand for effective starting pitching. If you're trying to contend, and you need a solid starting pitcher, it's brutal. There's a supply and demand issue. If you picture it from the point of view from a team who needs pitching, what are they supposed to do? Slim Pickens. So, I'd agree with the majority that you do it if you get a large overpay. At least two top impact prospects who we feel really good about. Don't rule it out. The Bosox are very happy with their young nucleus of Bradley, Shaw, Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart et al. But they don't have much hope with starting pitchers. They may be willing to overpay from their surplus of position player prospects.

Speculation that Mets could be interested in Lucroy http://metsmerizedonline.com/2016/05/jonathan-lucroy-should-be-a-priority.html http://inningseaters.sportsblog.com/posts/18308657/would-the-new-york-mets-trade-for-jonathan-lucroy-.html

Thanks for the heads up about the podcast. Yes, they seemed very confident about the Brewers being all over Perez. I hope there is some misdirection by the leaks from the Milwaukee scouts, because I strongly prefer Puk, Pint, or Groome. Sure, you can attack any of the pitchers for being a risk, but Perez is also a huge projection right now. With Perez, you see a speedy athlete who is rangy. But he is only 17 and who knows what kind of hitter he ends up being. To take an extreme example, Hector Gomez was a well regarded, rangy kid ten years ago. He could never hit well enough in the bigs and is now in Korea. If there is a thought that Perez is less of a risk, well he may only end up being a fringe player for all we know. My point is not that Perez will be terrible, just that he is a risk no different than a pitcher is a risk, except that the pitchers could lead to the ultimate reward of an ace starter. If Puk, Pint, and Groome are all gone by 5, which there are virtually no projections predicting, then I would agree that Perez should be a strong consideration, along with Micky Moniak and Blake Rutherford. Maybe even Danny Manning's kid could be considered, as he has some helium.

I'm going to go with AJ Puk at 1.1.

I like Miller Park. It still seems fresh. When I'm in there, it still has a new feel. It has everything you need, club seats, retractable roof etc. It's easy to get in and out of, relatively speaking. There's no need to even consider anything new for a long while. I hate waste. I don't even like any food to be left on a plate during dinner. Destroying a perfectly fine stadium really irks me.

It's a relevant point and all that you have a good chance of whiffing in the first round at pitcher. Arm injuries, lack of secondary offerings, poor makeup. Any of these things can scuttle a player's development. But, let's not overlook a few points. First of all, you can whiff badly at position players too. More importantly, once you get out of the first round, you don't have much chance at all to get an ace. If you ran a study of pitchers drafted after round one, the number of elite pitchers slims down to a minuscule percentage. The list of front line aces that come out of the first round lists is pretty encompassing. Milwaukee needs to grow its own aces. Certainly, they won't be signed in free agency. The Brewers could sell the farm in a trade as we've seen, but drafting our own ace is the best way to go. It needs to be done with a high pick, and that high pick needs to be converted into success. Position players are more easily found in later rounds compared with a top of the rotation starter. The ace starters by and large come out of the 1st round. Drafting middling guys like Corey Ray over a potential ace does not seem like you're getting value. Ray may have a higher floor and likely won't completely flame out. But he wouldn't ever be the value an ace pitcher would be. So, you take the risk on ace, full well knowing the risk of failure is there. Can you imagine the fall out if the Brewers drafted a high floor guy like Corey Ray and pass on Pint or Groome, and then Pint or Groome become an ace pitcher, while Ray becomes an ok dime a dozen outfielder? The Brewers would be a complete laughingstock. And that could happen. On the other hand, if the Brewers draft Groome or Pint and they never develop, while Corey Ray is batting .280 with 15 and 65 playing left field for the Marlins or somebody, the sell would be the Brewers took the necessary chance on an ace pitcher.

I don't agree with selling yourself at number 5 with a draft pool savings concept to try to get better players at subsequent slots. You have the fifth overall pick. You earned it. Now capitalize with an elite talent. Our top 30-50 is littered with solid prospects. What's missing is elite talent, particularly pitching. Go get a top 5 talent at 1.5. Don't get a lower talent, pay him less and then at the next pick hope to get a nice prospect. We can't be making those moves now.

Great post and list. It's a very telling list. You have a ton of the top pitchers in baseball coming out of high school on that list: Bumgarner, Fernandez, Kershaw, Grienke, Hamels, Giolito, Miller et al. There will always be that Mike Fiers 22nd rounder who makes it in the mid-to back of the rotation, but if you want a dominant ace that can win multiple games in a playoff series, drafting a high school ace is the way to go, as this list shows. Its probably not that simple when you figure Price, Harvey, Strasburg, Scherzer, Nola, Cole, and Sale (Verlander, Lincecum, and Weaver have also been "ace" caliber and drafted in the last 12 or so years) were all high 1st round college selections. Puk certainly has that level of upside as well though far from a certainty or finished product. Good point. I'd agree that a stud pitcher with a high pick, whether high school or college, is the way to go. It goes to scouting the individual. Nothing's easy at any position. The numbers bear out you have your best shot at putting a stud pitcher out there with a high draft pick. We can study pitchers after round one and find a very high percentage that bomb out or are not aces. I think Jordy Zimmerman may have been a second rounder but I'm going off memory. Between your list and mine, between high school and college elite pitchers taken with high picks, you see the who's who of top pitchers in baseball. High level talent pitcher with a high draft pick, sooner or later, is almost essential if you follow these studies. You may bomb out with Mark Rogers but it's an investment that needs to be made successfully at some point, if you want a true dominant ace.

Isn't Lucroy basically in the top 3 of all catchers in all the major hitting categories?

Great post and list. It's a very telling list. You have a ton of the top pitchers in baseball coming out of high school on that list: Bumgarner, Fernandez, Kershaw, Grienke, Hamels, Giolito, Miller et al. There will always be that Mike Fiers 22nd rounder who makes it in the mid-to back of the rotation, but if you want a dominant ace that can win multiple games in a playoff series, drafting a high school ace is the way to go, as this list shows.