Austin Tatious

Based on your logic, who cares what the Brewers did in 2006? Montgomery came on board in late 2014. That is really all that we need to judge at this point. He has since drafted three guys in the first round, two of which are in the top-60 prospects in all of baseball. Obviously we have no idea if any of the three that will pan out, but I don't care what Seid did; I care what Montgomery is doing. Fair enough. Let's hope Montgomery looks at the comedy of errors in Brewer 1st round drafts over the last decade and figures out how to turn around the poor evaluating and projecting that has plagued the organization. I am all for giving Montgomery a fair chance. I suspect he's going to hit on some post first round picks among Demi Orimoleye, Chad McClanahan, Lucas Erceg, Payton Henry and some others. A couple of points, though. 2006 was ten years ago, so it's a nice round number where we can look at a fair sample size. Players drafted in 2006 are still playing. Second, as you no doubt are aware, Montgomery came through Milwaukee before he went to Zona. He was part of the earlier process, so his fingerprints can be found in what was done. Drafting is the culmination of scores of information from scouts, as well as the department's processing, analyzing, etc. It's not as if the scouting director decrees some selection in a vacuum. The whole process in that decision tree needs to be considered. What was it that made Milwaukee think a .240 hitter his junior year and then got hot his senior year made him worth the seventh overall pick? These types of evaluations need to be examined and corrected. It's worth pointing out that the Brewers have had a boat load of high draft picks. If you look at where Kodi Medeiros was taken as a recent benchmark, 12th overall, the Cardinals haven't picked higher than 13th since 1998. There are factors for that as others have pointed out. But a contributor is also their drafting. In contrast, the Brewers have had numerous draftees that high or higher.

The Cardinals also drafted Chris Lambert, Tyler Greene, Adam Ottavino, Clayton Mortensen, Pete Kozma, Brett Wallace, and Zack Cox in the first round. Let's not pretend that they've hit on all of their first round draft picks because they haven't. According to B-R, the highest career WAR of any player the Cardinals drafted in the first round (including supplemental picks) since 2000 is Colby Rasmus' 18.1. Lance Lynn is next with 11.2. Braun (42.7), Fielder (23.8), Lawrie (15.1), and Weeks (11.2) are equal or better. Yes, most of those were drafted higher than the Cardinals usually pick, but 2/3rds of the players you referenced above (Miller, Wacha) were drafted before the Brewers had a draft pick those years. Talent levels vary with pick slots from year to year, and all bets are off prior to draft pick compensation in 2011 anyway. The Cardinals haven't had top 10 picks since the 90's - they hit on one (Drew, but flipped him for Wainwright), not so much with the other (Braden Looper, #3 overall). Braun is equal with Drew, Weeks better than Looper. (This is known as the "recency effect" - people tend to place more weight on recent events even if events further in the past have just as much weight.) The Cardinals made their hay with trades and free agent signings. They flipped Drew (who should never have been a Cardinal to begin with) for Wainwright. They flipped mediocre first round draft picks (Wallace, Mortensen) for Holliday. They signed Chris Carpenter as a free agent. (They signed Kyle Lohse as a free agent too.) Yes, they drafted Molina (the Brewers drafted Lucroy) and Pujols (nobody had him on their radar). And they re-signed all of those guys except Pujols to big, long-term contracts well into their mid-late 30's (Pujols to a big contract through age 31, Lohse to a big contract through age 33). You cannot seriously be arguing that the Cardinals draft just as bad as Milwaukee. That's beyond absurd to the point of not having credibility. What we care about are recent picks because that is what is happening now with the big league club. Whether the Brewers drafted Robin Yount in 1974 is irrelevant because it is different scouting. Recency effect just shows you that, in their current staffing, the Cardinals have done much better than Milwaukee. This isn't some random statistic. There are scouts in place responsible for identifying players for drafting. There is a reason why the Cardinals are good and stay good. They re-tool without falling apart. Anyone can cherry pick bad choices. You're barking up the wrong tree. You don't want to go over a comparison of records. They win World Series, dominate the Brewers like a big brother, and re-tool without falling apart. I love the Brewers but I don't believe in hiding your head in the sand and pretending everything is glorious. Since 2006, the only impact draftees have been Odorizzi and Lawrie. No one here is pretending that Coulter or Roche are impact players. I haven't seen any recent posts projecting them in our future lineups so we can all agree on that. They could improve, but it will be an upset if that happens. After 2012, we are looking at Medeiros, Ray, Kirby, and Clark. Let's hope for the best there. Will any of them be above average league players? You'd have to say incomplete right now but there are concerns about projectability. Since 2006, the Brewers top picks are not doing well. That's not an insignificant sample. Making excuses and pretending nothing is wrong is unbecoming.

You're missing the point. The Brewers had failed thinking at the seventh pick in the draft and were unable to draft a player that made an impact. It doesn't matter that he was traded. The question is that, at the time of the draft, did the Brewers identify a talent that made an impact as a player, whether here or anywhere. They drafted a kid who hit .240 as a college junior and then jumped on him after a nice senior season. The Brewers failed to draft an impact player, at seventh overall.

With Hammond, he's had some flops like Joe Alexander. Rashard Vaughn is apparently on JKidd as Hambone liked Portis. But basketball is so unique compared to football and basketball because there are small rosters and only 5 on the court at a time. There are so few difference makers, and then it's about complementary pieces which every team has. So, some whiffs may happen. You do have to give him credit for Giannis in particular. Maybe a monkey could have picked Jabari, but theoretically, he could have messed it up. I may be a minority voice on this, but I liked the Maker pick. Sabonis was the other kid I liked, but Maker brings some needed elements, particulary shot blocking, rebounding, rim protection, shooting, and high upside. It may have been universally panned, but I liked it. The move that probably made me go most apoplectic was trading out of the pick where we could have had Klay Thompson. I was on top of that the whole way. Klay was my guy. Collosal fail there. But, when it came to the Stephen Jackson, Corey Magette, John Salmons idiocy, that may have been Kohl. See Danny Gadzuric. On trades, he did get Middleton. It was not that long ago that we had Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis and I literally thought we had no hope. But, Hambone was here when we got out of that purgatory rapidly, much to my amazement and from the depths of despair. I agree with the point, that his drafting has been fine. There is some impact talent coalescing. But, his negotations and dealings with veterans is where he struggles mentally.

Good idea on Erceg. I always thought he was placed too low and I predicted he would tear up rookie ball. It's like when I played age limited youth baseball. I had a later birthday for my year, and so I was eligible to play with guys essentially a year or two younger than me. I raked, but I felt guilty because I was the older guy for that level, lol. Erceg is very promising as a two-way player.

Good post, Splitter. I really would rather have other talent than Profar for a variety of reasons (service time, age, other 2B options, etc.). Taking him and then flipping again is not my first choice but it wouldn't be the end of the world, either, if some upside young talent like Tavares comes with him. Hopefully it works out. I continue to have my doubts on Gallo. Don't get me wrong, I would have taken him over Haniger in the draft. In addition, guys taken above him by the Brewers are likely on their way to busting. This whole concept of applying the bonus pools is a big fat fail for Milwaukee.

I hope that Stearns and Matt Arnold are looking at every single instructor, coach, and manager in the farm system and looking at their track records. Look at their history. Who have they instructed and coached? How did they work out? I feel bad for anyone losing a job, but we all are accountable in our jobs. If there are instructors where players are not developing, then that needs a very close look. We have had some poor drafting to be sure, but the other side of it is player development. I suspect we can identify some coaches and instructors who have had too many pedigreed players who have not worked out. We need much better results on player development. Sure, you can factor in circumstances such as aggressive placement and what have you. But let's look at each coach/instructor and see what the results are. In addition to drafting better than us, the Cards also are better at the corollary of player development. I am confident that Stearns and Arnold are looking at this. We know they are trying to unify teaching. But they inherited a cluster mess on the player procurement and development side.

Good info. The first red flag is that his junior year of college, he hit .240. He cranked his senior year as he was among the oldest and most experienced college player. Apples to apples, he was nothing special as a younger player. The Brewers need to do a deep dive into what is going wrong fundamentally with their logic in the first round. Go through your picks and compare them with, say, the Cards and look through their documentation in advance of those drafts and compare with players that did work out for other teams. While the Brewers foundered in the 1st round, the Cards picked up Shelby Miller, Wacha, Piscotty et al. I assume Stearns is already on an advanced study on this. You can't hide your head in the sand and just say it's bad luck. There is a fundamentally a defect in the organization's 1st round thinking.

While most stars are not top 5 picks is accurate, I would adjust the comment to say most stars are either international or first round picks. And the top pitchers are normally top 15 picks. Price - 1st overall Strasburg - 1st overall Pomeranz - 5th overall Kershaw 7th overall Harvey - 7th overall Bumgarner - 10th overall Scherzer - 11th overall Sale - 13th overall And while there are some Syndergaard (38th overall) DeGrom (9th round), Arrieta (5th round) and international guys (Cueto, Teheran) the fact remains if you want the best shot at a top arm, you need to take a shot in the top of the 1st round. The issue for the Brewers is they have been mostly horrendous at drafting top pitching and haven't hit on a top 15 pitcher since Ben Sheets in 2001. But as you say, the Royals are quite impressive as their starting pitching is mostly mediocre. They have had some guys that are good Cueto, Shields, etc but they don't have the consistent starter who dominates MLB. Their success lies in the bullpen and timely hitting. Great post. You could add Verlander, Greinke, Sabathia, and Alex Fernandez who were high picks too. People like to denigrate the baseball draft compared with football or basketball, but at the end of the day, the elite talent gets drafted high at a high rate. There are always lower drafted kids that emerge in any sport, like Draymond Green in basketball or Arian Foster in football. That will always be part of sports. But to make drafting decisions with the notion that you can get elite talent late is fallacious because of the incredibly low odds. It's more like found money. Regarding outliers like Arrieta and DeGrom, you have to consider what longshots they are compared to the universe of pitchers taken after the first 75 picks. That's probably 2 out of hundreds of pitchers. Picking two outliers to say something is possible is folly. International pitchers are a different category anyway since they aren't even part of the draft. The list of Brewers number one picks since Braun is flat out abysmal. You guys know the list. LaPorta, Lawrie, Arnett, Bradley, Jungmann, Roache, Coulter, Medeiros, Clark, Ray.

I like Nottingham, and suspect he will get a second year at Biloxi to improve, given his youth. Nevertheless, I think it's prudent to obtain another high value catching prospect.

yeah i was looking for younger players to try to figure out what we could get in a trade. its not that strong of a system No worries, I appreciate the creativity. We should have an open mind about young talent with high ceilings. Grab the 19 year old with upside before he blows up. Kind of like how Toronto traded Sydergaard to the Mets in the Dickey deal.

I don't want to deal withe Detroit. Hate their system. Javier Betancourt was actually a fairly well ranked prospect for them and he will be way down on our prospect lists as the new draftees and trade rewards get listed.

They really couldn't get Plumlee at 4/40? This is crazy money. Key word, crazy.

^^^I couldn't agree more with A Swing and a Drive's post, #24.

IMO the Bosox still need another pitcher. I would just go down their list. If they would not take Nelson for Espinoza maybe they'd do Nelson for Kopech. It's good that there is dialogue between the clubs. Kopech is a massive risk but he has good ceiling. Syndergaard was once traded. There could be a parallel track here. The Bosox are obviously in.

We would all like to win sooner or later, but I don't see much hope for three years. If they sell off assets over the next year, there won't be much here in 2017 and that's when the bottom will fall out. 2018 would then be a young, developing team but probably still not therr yet. The hope is 2019 at best as more young talent comes online. They are going to have to find some top flight pitchers at some point. Mid to back half of the rotation is fine. But the front end pitching, and a truly elite bat or two are not here yet. Can't squander high draft picks. The '17 and '18 high picks gotta get it done.

+1. I don't know that Stearns has any limiting MO, but I suspect he'd love to get high level athletic talent at lower levels. Triston McKenzie comes to mind. Clevenger is not the answer. If Cleveland is saying no to their top 4 prospects, that may very well play into Stearns' hands and a deal can be reached. Cleveland could use Will Smith too. Who couldn't? Get some of the athletes at lower levels like Meija, McKenzie, Chang and a creative deal can get there, without the top 4 in their system. I mean, no one is getting Lucroy and Smith for a little. That's going to require a big return. This isn't charity. The Brewers can work with Cleveland and pass on their top 4. That's quite a concession. Now, if Cleveland wants a deal, something has to give.

Texas' GM, Jon Daniels, strikes me as having the "smartest man in the room" complex. It's not Stearns. Stearns has made a number of trades. He seems to understand how to do it. Daniels comes across as trying to outsmart every one all the time. He's over-complicating things. It's baseball. If you want to out sucker your opponent, why even try to deal with him? I have Texas fatigue. It shouldn't be that hard. I like the potential of some of their prospects, but Daniels is going to have to give up talent to get an in-prime all star catcher and potentially pitching help. I'd look to work with other ball clubs to be honest at this point.

It's interesting that the Brewers have three starters functioning with ERA's under 4, when you look at Nelson, Guerra, and Davies. As for Garza, I'm not looking for anything back that matters. But I'd love to get addition by subtraction here. Hopefully Mark Attanasio has learned his lesson. Wolfie and Lohse were solid for a bit, but those contracts were just too long. Garza was an awful signing. Suppan and Looper didn't work out. Stearns may be mitigating the need for this by stacking young protectable starters into the system. Keep the flow that way. That's the way to go, not these aging hipster pitchers.

Great job. Thanks for taking the time. I enjoyed the read.

So sorry to hear that. Extremely sad for someone so young. You can't even find the right words. Prayers with the family.

I will say, that every single comment makes sense to me. As for Stearns, let's hope the assessment turns out true. I give the original post a big thumbs up. Much appreciated.

Interesting. What hint, e.g., job title does he have?

Agreed that Bregman is a doubtful move. But, Rosenthal or one of his comrades suggested that AJ Reed may be in play.

I read somewhere in the media that the Mets are yet another team looking for relief pitching. It's uncanny how many teams could be in the market for relievers. This could be an interesting auction.