brewcrewdue80

Going to make a bold statement Cotton Packers win 31-16. Opening drive TD. Defense gets to Wilson for 4sacks. Jaire Alexander 2Ints.

Nobody does. He has been a 440 PA guy from 25-29 because he's always nicked up. The back was spasms. There's a long history of tissue issues with him that have cost him time here and there. That'll continue. He's not going to play a full season. Wonder why MKE added him to platoon 3b with Sogard? The NBA calls it load management. The new 26 man roster allows you to manufacture 2 positions. I think 440 PA from both covers all of 3b and then some. I'll happily trust the MKE medical staff and DS on this one over your hunch that he's toast which is fueled by bias because you wanted someone else. People are excited about his platoon capabilities at 3b, which he plays solid defensively, in the smaller half of the platoon. No one's expecting an All Star. He's here to abuse LHP and play 3b for 65-75 starts this year. That's 3 games a week. You would not have a 440PA split for the season. 350-400, 360-390, 370-380 Would be the max split dont you think? 4x162=648. 5x162=810. I think we're done with 3b barring the "trade" Stearns said would likely get his 3b. Im certainly feeling better with Gyorko at 3b than Andujar involved in trade ideas to play 3b in 2020.

Thinking about the Arbitration, there probably lies the timeline on when a deal may/would happen trading Hader. So after mid-Feb the salary projections for Hader will be known and what value he has moving forward. 4.1 vs 6.4mil yr 1 arb. What does that look like year 2? 7.5-11.8? So what Im getting at is 1 more month boys&girls and when that salary number for year1 comes out, watch the trade rumors really take off.

So, what you're saying is we're going to see at least 7 flags thrown on these infractions tomorrow.

How could the Cardinals afford that contract and Goldschmidt's? Thought they were one of the smaller markets...getting comp balance picks yearly because so?

His FB avg is 95.6MPH But he only throws it 84% of the time in '19 and that was 79% in '18 Something I attribute to Grandal's receiving skills. Pina caught 15innings for Hader to a tune of .54ERA For Grandal it was 3.17. I'd love to see graphs somewhere and pitch types to the catcher pitched too. Cant's find any currently. I am close to checking the ERAs of the pitchers for 2019 with which catcher. Just the investing time in doing so I'm on the fence doing so.

His FB avg is 95.6MPH But he only throws it 84% of the time in '19 and that was 79% in '18 Something I attribute to Grandal's receiving skills. Pina caught 15innings for Hader to a tune of .54ERA For Grandal it was 3.17. I'd love to see graphs somewhere and pitch types to the catcher pitched too. Cant's find any currently. I am close to checking the ERAs of the pitchers for 2019 with which catcher. Just the investing time in doing so I'm on the fence doing so.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/01/2020-arbitration-filing-numbers.html Puts a date range in as beginning to mid February They can still come to an agreed deal. Mlbtr has another story on Arb. Says Brent Suter are more than 50% apart like Hader. I think it says about 50% were settled last season and the rest went 8-7 teams to players. Betances had a larger spread than Hader or Suter currently do and lost previously.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/01/2020-arbitration-filing-numbers.html Puts a date range in as beginning to mid February They can still come to an agreed deal. Mlbtr has another story on Arb. Says Brent Suter are more than 50% apart like Hader. I think it says about 50% were settled last season and the rest went 8-7 teams to players. Betances had a larger spread than Hader or Suter currently do and lost previously.

Don't these usually end on a meet it some side of half way? The estimate MLBTR has on Hader is 4.6mil. So based on a the two proposed that's 10.5mil on average. So a 5mil -5.2mil settle then? Hader's side may have over priced themselves. Losing Arb would have a huge impact moving forward, so when the Brewers come up towards 5mil Hader's trajectory from 5mil vs 4.1mil is going to be a nice chunk of change. If they do go all the way to Arbitration decision and Hader wins 6.4mil. He's gone after this season 100% if not before this season begins. I do have to say that Mike Trout when signing a contract his first year to arb(not Super 2) the Angels paid him just over 6mil but less than 6.4mil that season. Sure he got paid 16 and 20mil the following 2 seasons, but let's look at it like this. Everyday HOF player vs RP of the year quality. MLB would be awarding Hader a higher payday than Trout as similar stages in their career. Now thinking about that. I think Milw/Hader would settle at 4.75 to 5mil vs a 5.2mil max.

Don't these usually end on a meet it some side of half way? The estimate MLBTR has on Hader is 4.6mil. So based on a the two proposed that's 10.5mil on average. So a 5mil -5.2mil settle then? Hader's side may have over priced themselves. Losing Arb would have a huge impact moving forward, so when the Brewers come up towards 5mil Hader's trajectory from 5mil vs 4.1mil is going to be a nice chunk of change. If they do go all the way to Arbitration decision and Hader wins 6.4mil. He's gone after this season 100% if not before this season begins. I do have to say that Mike Trout when signing a contract his first year to arb(not Super 2) the Angels paid him just over 6mil but less than 6.4mil that season. Sure he got paid 16 and 20mil the following 2 seasons, but let's look at it like this. Everyday HOF player vs RP of the year quality. MLB would be awarding Hader a higher payday than Trout as similar stages in their career. Now thinking about that. I think Milw/Hader would settle at 4.75 to 5mil vs a 5.2mil max.

I'm just Okay with the deal. Gyorko by statcast numbers, isn't that inspiring. He's not a HR hitter. Not 25+. Maybe he can give you 20. I mentioned this earlier(to no response) but Erceg has 116 games of experience at AAA now under his belt. I can visually see via the stats that on a natural positive progression trail, he could be an .800+OPS guy to call up at the Super 2 cutoff. His defense looks like he improved at 3b( less throwing errors and a higher range factor) This would fit a Nerd/Jerk platoon at 3b for a couple months. Then you can make a move with what you've witnessed. Away from Nerd? Away from the Jerk? How is Urias fairing at everyday SS? So at the moment I can see where the moves are trending at. You still even have Healy at 3b in a pinch. Though Healy has that ST invite and likely request out of Milwaukee if he doesn't make the team Opening Day feel. Probably signed seeing the hole Milw had with 1b/3b logically thinking making an opening day roster due to it is his best chance at playing. Think about that. Just may add a .750OPS ability bat at 3b with 6 more years of control by mid-season. Still young enough to improve on that.

I'm just Okay with the deal. Gyorko by statcast numbers, isn't that inspiring. He's not a HR hitter. Not 25+. Maybe he can give you 20. I mentioned this earlier(to no response) but Erceg has 116 games of experience at AAA now under his belt. I can visually see via the stats that on a natural positive progression trail, he could be an .800+OPS guy to call up at the Super 2 cutoff. His defense looks like he improved at 3b( less throwing errors and a higher range factor) This would fit a Nerd/Jerk platoon at 3b for a couple months. Then you can make a move with what you've witnessed. Away from Nerd? Away from the Jerk? How is Urias fairing at everyday SS? So at the moment I can see where the moves are trending at. You still even have Healy at 3b in a pinch. Though Healy has that ST invite and likely request out of Milwaukee if he doesn't make the team Opening Day feel. Probably signed seeing the hole Milw had with 1b/3b logically thinking making an opening day roster due to it is his best chance at playing. Think about that. Just may add a .750OPS ability bat at 3b with 6 more years of control by mid-season. Still young enough to improve on that.

You think our starting rotation is worse now than what we ended with last year? Come on. Hmmmm We added a bunch of question marks, but nothing that we can say for certain is better than Chase Anderson, Davies, Gio, and Lyles. Chacin, yes, but he was an absolute train wreck and pretty easy to replace. Lauer and Lindblom are at least pitchers that you dream on 170IP next season. Theres Houser or Peralta. Depth in Burnes or Brown having bounceback seasons that if so make the tail end of SP that much better. How Im viewing this roster makeup is one who goes in to 2020 with a far higher floor than the 2019 group. Theres always the trade deadline to improve more. And youve got the likes of Burnes, Brown, Erceg, Turang, Lutz, etc who can gain a lot of trade value by that stage. The ceiling isnt as high as I would hope going in to the season. Depth wise now, I can see a lot of surprise put out by this team. Think about Minnesota last season vs 2018. I mentioned 141 more HRsl. The Catcher with 24more on his own in similar ABs. Maybe Gyorko can be the teams Sano in 2020. Garcia be the team's Kepler? Narvaez the Catcher? Urias their Polanco at SS. Lauer, Lindblom,Peralts being their trio of Perez, Odorizzi, and Pineda? They managed 101 wins last year with those 160IP SPs and a batting lineup interchanged only of 3players to go from 9th to 2nd best in AL. I didnt even know Gyorko was out there. I think this is a better signing than Sogard or Healy. Which means the team is better than 24hours ago.

Cardinals gave up a versatile OF who had better than a 1.0 OPS at AAA last season. Hit .300 in his extremely small 23PA callup. Meanwhile that good LHP had a 78IP season last year in single A. I wouldnt call 78IP a good year for a SP. Hes 3years away at best unless used in the bullpen. Negating the SP upside future. Everyday flexible OF? Or RP? Wasnt Hellweg a top 80 prospect around when we acquired him? Liberatore is currently living off the 1st rd selection and Tampa's history developing great pitchers to his prospect ranking. On to Gyorko. He's played 1b,2b and 3b at some point in every season since 2015 began. Defensively at 3b he somehow has positive runs saved even though numbers look league avg and a .960 fielding pct. Overall his time in StL he had a 108OPS+ even after including his 2019. As a career he sits at 100OPS+ Its a solid move if he returns to his career avg or a great move if he produces up to his STL avg. 1b,2b,3b. Versatile depth. Maybe theres more to the bat in Miller Park/Amfam.

Urias could be used at 3b. Arcia back to SS. Should this not pan out. Maybe even Erceg has improvement and becomes a starter mid season. He does have over 100games at AAA. Ala Grisham takes a jump in to the majors Edit add. I then figured I'd hope to find Erceg a Platoon player but he's batted better vs LHP than RHP the last 2 years.

I can understand looking at the overall picture what Tampa accomplishes with this. Sure Liberatore is a top 50 prospect, but he's at A Ball and maxed out at 78IP last season. That's a good 3 seasons before you would consider adding him to the ML roster and even then that's in an IP cap. Tampa gets two OFs that are ML capable and ready. Martinez can fill the departure of Garcia. and Arozarena as a 4th OF to every day OF for them. Looking at the limited statcast for his 2019 he was above avg with the bat while not having a high K rate. Low launch angle that a little more lift may make that contact power a big improvement. Not as high as Yelich at this point but a similar profile where he could go on a little extra launch. Tampa atm wins this trade.

What if it was StL's SP top prospect Alex Reyes that went down to TJ costing the team what? 1.5yrs of control? 2years it looks like. With the down time and high ceiling Reyes possessed prior. Tampa may be getting a future TOR pitcher that won't be expensive in Arb to trade away the final year of control. You might also look at with the injury history that Tampa seeing good results in 2020 could sign a team friendly extension on Reyes. Just a thought. Throw another idea out there.

Why eat crow? Because these minor trades with very fringey prospects cause the prospect huggers to lose it. When is the last time one of these fringe guys even made an impact for the team we traded them to? We got what? Half a season of Joakim Soria for our 1st rd pick in '14. It's more being concerned that we gave up on him so quickly. Does Medieros have to be added to a team's 40man first? Or the same process DFA to place him in that team's minors off their 40man? It would just seem shrewd to me that the Sox lose him taking him their 40man and a team can immediately add him not on their 40man? Medieros has RP written all over him and I think the Sox delayed that last year starting him too many games trying to maintain the upside. It will be interesting though with the 3man requirements how it impacts a LHRP prospect moving forward. I am truly amazed that Medieros has lacked such improvement since being drafted. Why he cant improve his control in the time he's had. I still remember the sliders he threw just being disgusting filth. Maybe the spin rate is too hard to control but would an adjustment be simple to reduce that? Gain some control with some less movement? Anyway back in topic. Encarnacion is another big veteran bat to pair with Abreu.

What the White Sox have done this offseason is pretty smart, none of these contracts are big enough to significantly restrict their flexibility in the years to come. But they have to make up ~20 wins on the Indians and ~30 on the Twins. Not easy, but they have probably done enough to get over .500 and make things interesting. Which seems to be the intention. Way better than throwing $30+ million at Machado. In reference to making up wins on Minnesota. 6-13 against. 4wins is 8games. Lsts talk now about Minnesota. 2019 they hit 307HRs. That is 141 more HRs than the team hit in 2018. Mitch Garver their Catcher, had 31 HRs vs 7HRs in nearly identical PAs. 31 in under 400PAs. If he was a full time bat hes on pace for 55-60HRs or about the amount be hit total in his Milb career. There is a huge regression likely coming from the Twins offense. 141 more HRs than the previous season from much of the same bats. Meanwhile the Sox have clearly upgraded their roster. They acfually had a winning record vs Cle. 20wins is realistically what the Sox need to overcome. The Twins are not a 101 win team. Can you imagine where the Brewers would have finished if they got career years from all the position players vs 2? Aguilar batting .900 OPS. Shaw batting 900 OPS. Arcia 850. Cain 900s. Because that imagined thought was the 2019 Twins with a DH hitting 41HRs a 9th batter.

So for the White Sox does this take them more out of a Hader Trade or put them more likely to make a trade for Hader? They have seriously upgraded that you could say they are a piece or two away from serious aspirations. But then again maybe Chisek is all the RP that the Sox think they need til a trade deadline need.

Late to the show. Good Luck to McCarthy. He's had a year to potentially reflect on himself and improve his coaching. So we will see. I am surprised Dallas made the decision so quickly. Really do wonder on a year off how positive that may be for MM.

If they used the To. None left 21 secs on clock. I guess a tackle play in bounds potential time run out? But why not run the ball with the TO to gain a few yrds on FG attempt? Worked out for them in the end. I'm pretty sure on that Fumble return. Bridgewater was running on the field near the 10yd line when Saints player crossed endzone. Wth was he thinking?

But this is a 4year contract on a player a full year healthy going in to his age 34 season. Pujols suffered a set back for age 33 that he never returned to the player he had been prior. He still gave LA 7.5 BWAR for ages 34,35,36 before falling off the cliff age 37. Amazingly Pujols will make more money than Donaldson the next 2 seasons. Pujols' age decline is actually considered one of the most extreme performance fall-offs. Sure there's regression, but taking his example, the extreme, and applying it to Donaldson on a 4year deal is twisted reality. To point, what is the goal here? What is the repercussion? You're a Playoff contending team the last two seasons. You have a huge hole you can fill at not only a fielding position but a huge hole you fill for a batting position. You don't have a 3b prospect excelling to create pause on a deal beyond 1 or 2years. You can look at the current main players attached to this 2year playoff run and see that they are still together for 3 more years. Why for the life of you would you let say 10million a year keep you from making a deal that for all intents and purposes is the best upgrade for your team the next 3seasons? You don't have the opportunity to improve the team anywhere else for as simple as a 4 year deal. To think, what flaw does he possess? Something that sends off red flags to regression where it will hurt that this man is on your roster? Defense? Offense? Strike outs? On the bases? I can't find none. You know you have a playoff team w/o this exceptional 3b sitting there for you to sign that checks the boxes of everything you need for the 3year window. 10million going to keep you from this match? How much money are you making as a team that goes deep in the playoffs? It's gotta be a healthy bonus to host games+the media revenue. And more that I don't know in profits. Maybe it's future profits in that if the Brewers made a World Series the following year or years they were featured more often in prime time games. Make the run for it. Then tear it all down 4years from now if you have to because you lost that ~25mil a year for 4years expensive contract. 1 World Series appearance in the next 3 years is as good as it gets for a Brewerfan that was 1year old the last time it occurred.

There's never zero risk in a high dollar signing. There's higher risk in multi-year signings. There's a higher risk yet for a guy of Donaldson's age. I'm not even saying it's not potentially worth it, but saying it's "zero risk" is false. A team that commits 110 million to Donaldson for four years is assuming a fair amount of risk. you both got caught up on the zero risk and didn't finish the sentence. zero risk of him providing negative value. To clarify, if he gets any amount of playing time on the field it will accumulate positively. Zero Risk that he will have Negative WAR in a a season. Injured for an Entire season? That's 0.0War. Not negative. He's never missed a full season due to injury since becoming an everyday ML player. His lowest games played in 2018 of 52games, he still provided over 10mil in value. In a nutshell, for 110mil in 4 seasons, based on his career, Donaldson is going to earn and exceed that dollar cost in value. Meanwhile a guy like Kyle Seager being paid 19 and 19.5 mil the last two season and at minimum being owed 20mil avg the next two seasons has to meet his career avg to reach the value he is being paid on his contract. He is not the hitter JD is sans his one career season that occurred in 2016. Donaldson is at Nelson Cruz statcast levels. And Holy Cow Cruz is off the charts all of the last 5 years for somebody that is 5years older than Donaldson. Why do we have to be so sure that age regression happens to everyone until that player exceeds the expectations. Especially when the player has a consistent history of being great? It's something different when they have abnormal seasons that don't fit with their normal tendency. Or at least showing signs that they are regressing. Donaldson is not showing any signs of regression. If there is one it's that he K'd about 3% more often than his career avg that sits at 20%. He is carrying a higher avg of walk pct than career avg each of the last 4 seasons. If you're going to make a surprise splash against the norm, he would be the one to do it on.