brewcrewdue80

How so? The Saints were 7-1 on the road this year. It's not like with the Seahawks a few years ago where they were like 8-0 at home and 5-3 on the road. The Saints are a good road team. Maybe at Brees age he could be affected by the elements, but we don't even know that the weather will be a factor. It could be 35 and mild for all we know 9 days out. Im not sure at 1 or 2 losses at home or on the road makes a huge difference when the matchup is of a team that lost 1 at home and 2 on the road. I think the impact would be relevant at an 8-0 5-3 or 4-4 record Home vs away as a playoff team. Obviously 8-0 and 3-5 on road type. I do believe that certain dome stadiums have bigger impacts to overcome vs a home team playing outdoors. NO and Seattle for instances. Colts? Trying to think of another AFC dome team. Houston and Dallas but I dont think of their Home Field as big an advantage. Lambeau field there's an advantage imo on team makeup and of course kickers. Though in the last half? Dozen years seems opposing kickers don't have as much a yardage impact. Like it used to be 43yards you'd have no problem attempting but 45 and above you wouldn't even try. Hasn't there been a number booted beyond 50 more recently? That all said, I have 0 faith GB could beat NO on the road this season. I feel its more a 5050 playing in GB at least. How Aaron Jones performs vs NO's Defense is what tips the Packers over NO. I see no way currently Rodgers can best Brees in a QB throwdown. One QB has confidence in more than 1WR and the other has trouble giving his WRs chances to make a play, seemingly its either a perfect throw or nobody will catch it.

Kinda close. 1.5mil more a year than the highest I was expecting. For Castellanos now that must make his next contract look like 4/66mil. Donaldson in terms of value he's brought has been worth 40+mil 5 of the last 7seasons with 2019 coming in at 39.4mil The Brewers could fit this contract. But it likely means you can only afford Hader this season and have to part with him for beyond 2020 to do so. Cain had a 145mil total value his prior 5years prior to signing a 16mil/yr contract for 5years. That was a 29mil avg value avg. Donaldson has a 264.5 total value the last 6 years. 44mil avg value. Out of all the FA signings and worrying about return on value, I'd say Donaldson is the least concerned one to do so. Besides Cain's deal during a depressed not spending market. I'd literally give Donaldson a contract of 3/90 mil as mentioned above and to meet his demands put an option of 20mil the 4th year that automatically triggers if the Brewers played in the WS any of the 3years. Don't you think his bat would play up in Milw vs Atl? Play up playing NL Central parks vs the NL East parks? Play up vs the Pitchers in the Central vs who he faced in 2019 in the East? A .900 OPS middle of order bat who fits everything you want in profile for a 3b. Considering he's been providing a 40+mil value in avg the last 6 years, you're getting you're value back in a matter of 3 of 4 seasons played. There's zero risk of him providing a negative value in any of the 4 seasons. Whoever jumps in and gets him signed won't regret a thing....Unless you're a team in higher tiers of luxury tax already.

Is Kirilloff off the tables for trade? Royce Lewis? Because the 2 pitchers we're taking back are limited in IP. Graterol especially. He's basically set up for only RP. Balazovic has the upside for a SP but another 2years away. Larnoch Seems good for a get, but Lewis and Kirilloff seem better to get when considering bats. Sano hasn't played over 116games in a ML season with 2years remaining of control. Coming off his best valued year that's a buy high that I think if we could get Kirilloff or Lewis, then we need to take a pass on. I'd really think that a deal with Minnesota would have to include Kirilloff. He sounds like a 1b bat that will be effective all 6years of team control. The hit tool to match up with Hiura and Yelich if he joins the team in 2020 would be welcome. And then maybe Larnoch would fill out your two headliners at top 20 and top 80 prospect return. Take on #12 Twins prospect Blayne Enlow who's up to 111 IP a year at A ball and call it a day. I know I've said I prefer Pitchers that help the team right away, but looking at the Twins, they fill a trade out better with Kirilloff and Larnach position bats and that pitcher being the throw in piece. I'm really opposed to using Sano as the headliner in a Hader trade. He's a career 36.3% K rate that isn't improving. 36.2 in fact for 2019. That's gotta limit him to a .245 kind of BA. Plus he's more expensive than Hader for 2020 and most likely 2021 before losing him to FA after 2021. You're not going to QO him without a drastic improvement on his K tendencies. Kirilloff as the start or we aren't talking anymore with the Twins.

Oh man. Mlbtr now has a Nolan Arenado trade at 50/50 among 6teams but only mentioned Texas Rangers atop that fits. This goes with Kris Bryant still still still waiting for a decision on his case. It's going to be awhile for 3b market to play out.

Domingo Germån received an 81gm suspension that will leave 63games to start 2020.

Totally disagree here. White Sox would jump for joy at Hader for Vaughn straight up. What about Vaughn makes him special for a 1b prospect? Why even is he in the top 25? The readup on him says nothing but a 1b bat. The Brewers wouldn't trade Corbin Burnes straight up for Andrew Vaughn. Some posters here are way over-valuing Vaughn. Arizona trade idea above. Switch Seth Beer for Geraldo Perdomo. 6'3" SS that had more BBs than Ks last season. You would keep with the tradition of up the middle prowess and allow the Urias to 3b turn out. It seems a little light but honestly what Ginkel has done is just perform from minors to majors. It'd be like taking a step down from Hader while adding 3 certain MLB future prospects. I posted about Stiever previously I like him in that White Sox trade proposal. but with Vaughn that is not enough back for Hader considering the moves the White Sox have made. The RP is more than a step down. Vaughn and Stiever have 0 chance of making an impact for the 2020 regular season. I still go back to Dylan Cease needed in the trade from WS for Hader. That is essentially a better Duplantier in the Arizona proposal.

Alright perused some stats and comparisons. Healy for his career at 3b has a .925 fielding pct. Castellanos had it at .955. Healy has a slightly better range factor but it's not by much. So, made me wonder a little bit on is Healy being brought in to play 3b?, or is he a platoon partner with Smoak? Healy is 6'5", his last 2 seasons are sorta reverse splits RHB better vs RHP worse vs LHP. Smoak is a switch hitter who bats much better from the RH side vs LHP. 6'4". So what you are getting if you platooned them are batters that cant be platooned against with pitchers. As Healy bats RH vs the LH as does Smoak. and Healy bats best vs RHP so you're not gaining the advantage there. If you follow along, that leaves 3b completely open. Open to sign one of the two biggest remaining bats that play 3b between Donaldson or Castellanos. Castellanos considering how poor Healy has performed at 3b fielding would lead to believe having Castellanos defend at 3b not be an issue. That brings me back to Castellanos is waiting on Donaldson's contract to set his contract. 4/80 for Donaldson would leave to think 5/60mil for Castellanos being younger and not coming with the value Donaldson has. Yes 40% less. Talking 1.5WAR vs 6WAR. It may even be something like 4/48 or 5/55 longer term. Now putting that down I think I gotta bump Donaldson to4/96 up to 4/104. Which maybe bumps Castellanos say 5/65 or 4/52mil. Castellanos and Donaldson via Statcast would grade out essentially like this all of the last 5 seasons. JD: A+,A+,A,A,A+ and NC: C,B,B,B+,B They both are very consistent what they'll bring with the bat it's just Donaldson is at God Level, and Castellanos is just below All Star level. Now, if you could put me in Stearns' shoes I'd be begging for Mark A to let him offer 3/years for up to 90million to entice Donaldson to Milw. This is a bat that is the difference between Wild Card or Division win and sets up better to go on to the WS. Unless Castellanos signs before Donaldson, I fully believe we will end up with one or the other. The big Domino is when JD signs.

You opine Hader (& Arcia) are worth more than Merrifield and Montgomery, that’s fair, but the Brewers actually save about 600K in 2020 in the deal based on arby estimates. Hader @ 4.6m, Montgomery @ 1.2m. Merrifield will make 5m and Arcia will make 2.2m. Ill admit it was late response and I actually thought montgomery played for the Royals. On the money end Merrifield has built in money triggers that will add to his expense. Or if he doesn't, you got poor results from him and the headliner on your return was junk. Montgomery after some digging, is Hader like, being a Super 2. 1/4 the cost/equal control. This is sorta like on the good results of the trade, the Brewers are paying 2players for what Hader alone would cost them. But if either of those two arent good you save money, but the team is worse overall for the same time frame as just keeping Hader. Yankees did pay more value but still underwhelming. Anyway, a blurb on Andujar via MLBTR was that the Yankees believe he'll be ready to go come Spring Training. Again he is such a risk not only on even if his 2018 performance was the real deal, but is he even going to be healthy to start the 2020 season? What GM is going to trade for him before the 2020 season? I mean maybe for Arcia at the moment because he's likely about to spend the 2020 season in the minors or waived.

You wouldn't make this trade for what the Yankees part with for Hader straight up. Yankees laugh this all off as they get what they wanted nowhere near touching what Stearns was asking for Hader. It really doesn’t matter what Stearns may or may not have asked for from the Yankees, it’s whether what the Brewers receive is deemed as appropriate value in the trade by the Brewers. The primary piece going to the Brewers is from the Royals. The Yankees pieces have value, but the Yankees and Brewers don’t match up well in a Hader deal IMO. The Yankees pieces fit in with the Royals a lot better. If the Brewers believe Merrifield can be their 3B, it’s a solid return. I think it matter in trade value. Say NYY only sent 30mil to get 55mil in return. Milw sent 57mil to get 40in return and KC sent 40mil to get 32mil in return. Its settling for less while giving up far more. We actually take on more money for 2019 and possibly 2020 when we are getting rid of Hader at his peak value for the simple reason he's going to get expensive(or cheap discount if you're the Yankees,..at a discount)

You wouldn't make this trade for what the Yankees part with for Hader straight up. Yankees laugh this all off as they get what they wanted nowhere near touching what Stearns was asking for Hader. But I suppose you add Garcia from the Yankees to Milw and youre making the trade idea work a little better. Not that I believe Garcia will ever see success in a Starters role. The Yankees are getting the best player here and nothing they sent to KC approaches the Royals getting a best player value in return. They at least can bat Andujar DH. Oh and Merrifield fits 2b not SS or 3b. So time to move on from the trade idea.

That was inexcusable. Rodgers could have thrown a lameduck lob and completed that for a td. Wow and then gashed and give up 3 with under 20sec. Bye thread. I have lost all faith for a football game 2weeks from now. Trade Rodgers for Blough straight up. Pay 10mil per year of what Rodgers had left on contract. Rodgers was must see tv prior to this season. Im walking out of this game because this is cant watch tv.

Was he just stepped on?

Well that ref should be suspended for all the postseason. Worst sideline inbounds call I think i ever seen. Legit we are going to be shut out.

Absolute joke of a start. Defense looks like they are playing touch football trying not to hurt themselves. Rodgers needs Favre to run on the field kick him in the nuts laugh in his face and tell him what a disgrace he's been at QB.

Right now I don't see the big upside to Cease that you are seeing. In AAA 4.50 ERA - 1.57 WHIP - 10 hits/9 - 4.5 BBs/9. His small sample (73 IPs) in the big leagues last year was even worse (5.79 ERA - almost 10 hits/9 - 1.8 HRs/9 - 4+ BBs/9). Certainly not the headliner Stearns would want for Hader. Maybe for Anderson. Sheets is a nice prospect as a minor piece of the trade. Stiever is a prospect, but he got rocked in A+ last year and is too far away to be anything but a throw-in. Plus/plus Fastball, a Plus Curveball, he mixes a slider/split from that curve, and an average Changeup offering. 6years of control. 2.4ERA in 2018. top 30 prospect prior to graduating. Remember last year was his rookie season. 6.86ERA in July, 6.97ERA in August, 3.0ERA in September. 21IP 28ks in that September only 16hits off him. Genuine 4 pitch mix that last season was 51.5%FB--21%SL--18.5%CB--8.9%CH The FB was his negative ranked pitch last season. The other 3 had positive values You want a guy with ToR potential?, this is when you get them. Woodruff's 2017--4.81ERA 2018 for 4starts 6.32ERA or 1 start shy of a 21IP Cease month. Last season 3.62ERA. Would you trade Woodruff+ for Hader? Stiever was rocked sure in the lower A level and had big improvement the 2nd half at A+. Reverse. Maybe the difference is a hitters league vs a pitcher's league? Either way he improved on that start at the higher level. How rare is it that a guy likely to play AA next season near age 23 will have the ability to pitch 160IP? So often it seems like they are hoping for 135 to 140IP. Then come 2021 he would be good to go for a full season at the MLB level timed with the year you'd project him to pitch in the Majors. Then you may enter 2021 with Woodruff, Cease, Brown/Burnes/Peralta/Lauer and Stiever as a 7th man with that entire staff minus Woodruff having 4years of control or more. Maybe then we can go through an offseason without the incessant ToR acquiring posts after every move that isn't a ToR SP.

I like that Lafluer said that. This is a far better playoff matchup and reward than what any L provides. Minnesota again? Or SF/Sea? Also what do the Lions lose putting up a W? They must be around top 3 or 5 for the draft.

Maybe Castellanos is in holding pattern waiting on Donaldson's next contract for a comparison type deal of around 33-40% less.

I made mention on sending Hader to the White Sox and headline that with Dylan Cease. Looking now a guy I'd add would be #6 prospect Jonathan Stiever(has WI state ties) And that may actually be it. The read on Stiever is that he's good with Fastball and Curveball, repeats delivery and has control. He's basically a guy about to jump in to the top 100 with anything resembling under 4ERA next season. What's good about him is he had 145IP for A/A+ ball last season. So already we are staring at a guy that can exceed 160IP next season. Maybe a Gavin Sheets joins the return. 2nd rd pick of 2017 playing 1b. Lefty. Doesn't sound like a 3TO. Maybe a Lyle Overbay type. Cease was a top 30 Prospect who had the HR ding upon playing in the MLB but otherwise hadn't down in the minors. Think Burnes here. He'll obviously have options and you can put any of the 3 of Peralta/Burnes/Cease in to the rotation. To me this is sorta upside, upside, upside while not digging in to the White Sox pecking order. Kopech, Vaughn, Collins, Dane Dunning. Maybe you send them Brett Anderson if you're feeling they wouldn't make the trade of Cease out of that rotation for 2020 as it sets up a little thin in the early term of 2020.

I think you way, way, way over-value Lutz. Lutz has yet to reach AA ball and hit only .235 in low A Appleton and .245 in A+ Carolina. Lutz alone wouldn't even get Dunn much less all three even if they took on Seager's entire contract. His value is at $14.7 million per BaseballTradeValues.com, the package Milwaukee gets back is about $13.5 million. That said, I think Seager would benefit from the move to Milwaukee, based on park factors - T-Mobile Park has posted a multi-year factor of 93 hitting/94 pitching. Miller Park's park factor is 101/101. Seager posted a .789 OPS and an OPS+ of 112. Somewhat above average for a major leaguer. Figure those will tip the balance somewhat. So we should be either getting less back in return or need to add some more value. So probably remove Sheffield yeah? Especially considering you are instilling Dunn immediately in to the rotation. Actually, I would wonder on the fact that pretty much both Dunn and Sheffield have passed prospect ranking barely as rookies that they are likely devalued far too much by the site. Both were top 100 prospects in 2018, Dunn still remains top 100 at 70. Considering Sheffield fell out of the top 100 and Lutz isn't then I'd guess Sheffield. Maybe you include Arcia to get Dunn. They non-tendered Beckam and have JP Crawford for SS who batted below .700OPS last season. I'd also suspect that the 14.7mil value for Seager would increase playing in Milwaukee as mentioned above with ballpark factor. Maybe vs Lutz you make it Joe Gray depending on which of Sheffield or Dunn.

Thks dude has to read this forum and is trolling me. Hours after my rant against these two to post this. My head is going to explode if this is the deal even if Dominguez is the prospect final piece. Dodgers could offer May and that already blows away this offer. And why wouldnt they if this is what Stearns would take back for Hader. Straight up this is a I Hate you move on Stearns end to take that proposal.

Who else out there in MLB and provide 3IP 9ks 0hits 0walks? That is why he's the best RP in baseball. Nobody has that ceiling that he brings. and as Joey just said, B2B RP of the year sorta cements that claim. I personally think he threw more Fastballs last season because I suspect on Grandal's defense. Breaking pitches he'd have too much problems catching. I also believe if Hader doesn't get results with just his FB he'd display more of the slider and whatever 3rd pitch if needed. 2years ago he threw 20% sliders. Last year fangraphs has him at 15.4% surprisingly. 3 years ago he threw more changeups at 7.1% vs under 1% each of the last two seasons. I just don't think he's going to decline anytime soon. He's just bringing what is successful currently and when it struggles he'll adjust his style to return to be successful. Hader btw is 6'3" That's 6inches taller than Garcia and I almost wonder if Garcia were to face Aaron Judge, would he even be able to throw downward to him without the pitch being below Judge's strikezone? Flat fastballs will get rocked. JoeC I see where you are going but ERA from RPs and that point scale really dings Hader as he finishes 8th in ERA while being best in XFip. 1ER or 1IP may just be the difference from top 3 vs the 8th he finished. Remember these guys are throwing 70ish innings and not 170+.

You are much more informed than me on this so lay it out for me. What metric, that is reliable with basically one year of data, is being used to determine that Andujar is the worst 3B since Ryan Braun (hyperbolic, yes)? What skill set does Castellanos possess that allowed to improve that Andujar does not have? Is Andujar stiff? Is he not athletic enough to improve? Will all the shifting we do mitigate some of the issues? Can he be moved to another position in a year or two and we survive with him at third for a couple of years? Not being a jerk or sarcastic, I legitimately respect your thoughts on these questions. I already made mention to this in the Hader thread. Andujar is coming off Torn Labrum and shoulder surgery to repair it. What I didnt post was that the torn labrum was to his throwing arm. Already a poor defender we know how tprn labrum affect throwing via Nelson(Andujar injured sliding in to 3b) DRS stands fpr defensive runs saved. His rookie year he was responsible for -25runs fielding 3b. His range is well below league avg. He had a 94.8% fielding rate that after rehab befpre surgery was 7 out of 10. He was on pace for -100runs value playing a full season. The bat's value was worth 21runs above replacement value. Somehow that math equaled 2.2 War his rookie season. Essentially this would be like us offering Nelson+ for Hader based on what we knew up to beginning of 2019. Andujar's minor league career is a .736OPS only the stretch ending 2017 and his 2018 season did he display 850ops results. So Please explain to me why Andujar fits in a Hader trade? What makes you feel that he'll be every bit the hitter w/o worsened defense post surgery, while he's not played a single game to prove so?

Andujar. Had a good hitting rookie season. Suffered season ending torn labrum surgery back in May. At the time he had a -9runs offensively on top of the defensive issues. To take him in is expecting his rookie year not only wasn't a fluke(because it has that appearance) but also that this torn labrum surgery was a success and he's going to be just like he was in 2018. I call bull on that. taken from an article on MLB Andujar sustained the tear by diving back into third base in the Yankees' third game of the season. Though the Yankees initially believed that Andujar's injury would not affect his hitting, Andujar was 3-for-34 (.088) after being activated from the injured list on May 4. Injured goods, with 0 proof that he won't remain injured goods. Already poor defensively, how does he return from surgery? It can't be better defensively, it can only be worse. Does his amazing 2018 out of practically nowhere reappear? This is what Yankees fan dream of in getting rid of him because he's likely toast and 2.2WAR season is the best he'll ever be. Not one trade idea involving Hader should include him in it. He'd only be a PTBNL worthy after he's spent 2months playing professional ball and showing if he's even a glimmer of his former self. Mark Polishek can go take his opinion and shove it. Frazier is an OF, Florial is an OF. Garcia is the only one that makes sense, and even mentioning Frazier, is another Yankee rid away a trash/mistake and get elite in return. Frazier probably has 0 or 1 options remaining. None of that fits the current Brewers roster. Florial at 22 in A+ ball just completed a .237/.297 season. Has a 45 hit tool according to MLB. What does that do for Milw moving forward. Edit add: Also Garcia has Red Flags. He's 5'9" and usually those stats are elevated when so short. Had 5.4ERA at AAA in 40IP. What does this remind you of? Tyler Thornburg, who just can't cut it due to the stature. Had a 4.5BB/9 basically at AA and AAA. Sure he's only 20 but look at Freddy Peralta, dinged due to being 5'11" and maybe that can explain is struggles at times. You want 6'1" or taller ideally up to 6'6" Garcia is battling uphill in a downhill battle. to point: MLB says this on #5 ranked 6'1" Clark Schmidt(who sound more promising that Garcia or Gil) His 6-foot-1 frame doesn't create a lot of downhill plane on his pitches, and his size and less-than-smooth delivery created concerns about his durability even before he blew out his elbow. He has the best four-pitch mix among Yankees pitching prospects, so they will continue to develop him as a starter.

This is an easy answer due to who it includes. You stick with Arcia's defense and weak bat. Reason being he can be batted 8th or even 9th. Andujar is not a top of the order bat. So he's going to bat 5th or 6th maybe even 7th since he's returning from injury and not proven that he deserves a top 6 slot in the batting order. So his weak defense that is on display for 9Innings a game vs Arcia who provides the defense 9innings in a game and bottom of the batting order hidden offense. I think if this were a Trout with his immense Offense and he came with Andujar's defense you are going to choose Trout becase he can bat 1st or 2nd and provide that positive far more often. Essentially it's something like batting: 1st sees 750 PAs 3rd sees 716 PAs 5th sees 684 PAs 7th sees 647 PAs 8th sees 627 PAs 9th sees 608 PAs That's about 18% less than 1st for an 8th in order bat. At 5 it's about 9% less. You can't hide him on defense that due to age likely worsens, whereas Arcia due to age can improve on his batting. You would have to think Andujar has a Lux type of ceiling and that is hard to do when he's a .736OPS career minor league hitter with .866 at AAA. I mean it is awful to dream on Andujar who is a DH only player moving forward in return on a Hader trade. How about Houston. Ask for Forrest Whitley, Cionel Perez, Abraham Toro, and Jordan Brewer as a throw in. That is #1, former top 10, #5, and the throw in since he's a "Brewer" actually interesting has a tie to the Badgers as a potential recruit. this sounds like a Monte Harrison type player needing lots of baseball experience. Toro is a switch hitter 3b/1b only 22. Perez is their #5 prospect of 2018 who starts done in the minors, but has pitched (poorly) as a brief RP for Houston thus far having lost his prospect status. 23 yrs old and Lefty, kinda a replacement for Hader in a couple seasons? but maybe he can be a starter too. Whitley is a guy dreamed as a #1 starter and had a poor season in 2019 reducing some of that shine. You know how a few of these have gone, Lucas Giolito/Tyler Glasnow. Live up to that #1 status and it's a steal for Milwaukee. Why would Houston do this trade? Lost Will Harris, Roberto Osuna has 2 years left on contract. Whitley may never have this kind of value as he does still. Perez/Toro are lower in their pecking order. Fans can be happy that they traded back for Hader.

So he earns 10.5mil if he does what he did last year and step on the mound and tear his achilles. Or, he earns 7.5mil but then 6mil player option increases to 6.8 at 40 games, 7.8 at 50, 8.8 at 60, and 9.8 at 70games appeared in 2020. And then for 2022 he has a player option that only begins at 1mil when he hits 50games in 2021, jumps to 3mil at 60games, and 6mil finally at 70 games. Only a 1mil buyout. So trying to figure this out it sounds like a max 2/18.3mil deal. I don't see why the Mets would buy him out for 2022 if he reaches 50 games in 2021 and if Betances reaches 50games I'd imagine he's not exercising a 6mil option for his efforts. Kinda odd the way it's structured that Betances can really earn his keep in 2020, but then he's not exactly influenced to earn his higher pay in 2021 with such a weak reward in 2022.