SoCalBrewfan

Well, they have Phillips knocking on the door, so I would certainly consider him a young player with longer term upside. Given his presence, going out to get another true CF who might fill the role for multiple years doesn't seem like the best use of meager resources. It is a bit confounding though; they obviously have too many corner outfielders, though, and no clear CF for this coming season. It's still very possible that we'll see a trade to address this, but in the end I think CF this year in Milwaukee is going to be a place to give Santana, Liriano, and, eventually, Flores some playing time, with Nieuwenhuis the only true CF on the roster. The defense will take a hit, but those three guys all have some upside and I'd like to see some investment of PAs to see whether they can blossom. It does look like a poor defense overall, but I think at many positions they are more likely to be just a few runs below average than they are to be outright horrible. If the fangraphs projections are to be believed (and of course defensive stats much less projections should be viewed cautiously) the outfield seems much worse than the infield, in part due to the absence of a true CF. (OK, first base isn't going to be great, either.) They have Cecchini and Middlebrooks as ok at third, for whatever that's worth; I'm not sure whether that's a real projection or just the absence of data. My hope is that the defense would start to improve next year with Phillips and Arcia pushing their way in; seems like Santana/Liriano/Flores could be fine in a corner and Villar decent at second if their offense justifies keeping them around. And hey, we do have some DH candidates should that come to pass...

The cast off were cast offs for a reason. I think there are plenty of duds in those cast offs. Middlebrooks does not excite me in the slightest, for example. But the risk is minimal and it doesn't take many hits on these reclamation projects though to come out ahead. If just one of Cecchini, Villar, Liriano turns into a league average player for a few years, that's huge, and each of those guys gives at least some cause for optimism. As with past Brewers like Pods or Danny Kolb, investing the playing time now can lead to an asset with significant value on the field and then eventually in trade. Determining who deserves that playing time in 2016 is going to be the tricky part...

If "55" means a MLB quality starter and a "45" represents a 0 WAR type player, then certainly the 55 type players. The 45 grade players should be pretty plentiful. Yeah, I think choosing a risky 55 over a more certain 45 is a no-brainer for the Brewers in their current state, though I also think 45 is more like a 0.5 WAR player. Now admittedly, you need those guys to fill out your roster, and there are Brewers teams that have foundered due to an inability to find cheap players of that quality. Having mediocre replacements on hand helps prevent the likes of Yuni at first. Still, generally bullpen arms and backup position players are available for next to nothing. (This is a place where Melvin was once a whiz but where he seemingly lost his mojo...) On the other hand, the economy of baseball means that a 55+ player is going to be hard for the Brewers to afford at full market price. (I think the answer might be different for, say, the Dodgers or the Cubs right now.) The cost in free agency or in trade is going to be such that we can't do too many of those deals. Thus we need to get them while they are cheap, which means taking on risk. With the valuation of high-level prospects now seemingly at a high point, it seems very astute to do as Stearns has and look for really young players with high ceilings.

To me the jury is very much out on the Stearns era of former prospect cast offs and 19 year olds, but assuming we are drafting well the next 3 drafts the rebuilding plan will surely work. Well, given how long he's been in the job, I think Stearns would accept that the jury should still be out. There's no certainty in any rebuild; there always seem to be teams chronically rebuilding. Baseball is such that getting into the playoffs by a fingernail and being hot at the right time can get you a championship. However, given the state of our division, and the talent on the roster, I don't see that we were in a good place to pull that off. Even had we kept Lind, Gomez, and Fiers, and added whatever free agents we might have afforded, does anyone see a clear path to the 2016 playoffs in a division with the Cubs, Cards, and Pirates? (And a league with the Dodgers, Giants, Mets, and Nats?) Last year you could reasonably hope for that; if a few things broke right for the Brewers and broke wrong for our rivals, it's not impossible that we could have been a playoff team in '15. As it turns out everything that could go wrong last year did, but I think we all knew that the rebuild was coming sooner or later. I'm personally grateful that the poor start last year provided clarity, because the pieces we added last year are very exciting, and the system is dramatically improved.

No offense to Morris, but it is kind of shocking to think back and realize that he used to be #1 in the system. I don't think Morris was ever actually ranked #1 in the system. BA had him 4th in '13 after his big year in Huntsville, behind Peralta, Thornburg, and Jungmann. He was 10th on the BA Brewers list in '14.

I would previously have compared the return to a supplemental first rounder, as I would have assumed that Lind was a candidate for a QO and would thus return us a draft pick if he left as a free agent. However this offseason for the first time we saw a number of players accepting the qualifying offer, so the risk-reward scenario there might have shifted a bit. I don't know enough about the prospects to have a strong opinion, but after years of Melvin needing major league ready talent, this seems like a welcome change given where the Brewers are right now. I'm happy to see us taking some risk in the hopes of a greater return in the future. I didn't want to see a marginal 3b coming back, for example...better to wait for a real solution there and work on building the system's talent level.

The Brewers need to get out of the habit of paying pitchers for what they did in the past. In Kennedy's case, his good years were five years in the past. Last year his numbers benefited from his home park but he was really no better than, say, Wily Peralta, and he's about to turn 31. I don't want to commit three or four years at free agent prices and potentially give up a draft pick as well. We've tried that...

MLB trade rumors reported this from Heyman: I was worried until I checked Kennedy's agent...just a coincidence I'm sure that it's Scott Boras, Heyman's favorite source. So maybe they're trying to drum up business for Kennedy? How could that possibly make sense for the Brewers?

In addition to the wise comments above, I think it's entirely possible that Jungmann's innings count underestimates his season's workload; pitching in Colorado Springs has to make for long innings and his 1.5 WHIP suggests that he probably threw a lot of pitches.

I guess I'd start from a philosophy, and build from there. My philosophy would be young pitching (with an emphasis on ground balls), defense (with a corresponding emphasis on infield defense), and getting runners on base and hitting extra base hits. I wouldn't necessarily value batting average or steals, would tolerate lesser defense at first base and outfield corners, and might in the short term accept, as an example, a third baseman who doesn't hit for average but has a bit of pop, draws some walks, and plays great defense. (Not that we have that guy...) None of that is radical, but it leverages some existing strengths (young GB pitchers, Arcia coming up), plays to the park, and gives you a way forward. I'd tape it up on the front office walls. Counsell should be able to but in...that was him as a player, really. Then you decide from there, considering contract status, who fits the plan, and consider where upgrades might come. A mediocre to bad defensive infielder who never walks? Goodbye...we can find good defensive infielders who never walk and at least have good defense for our young pitchers. An mediocre flyball starter with a bad contract and attitude? See ya.

Braun also has a history in the infield, unlike any of our other outfielders, so if you were determined to move someone, he'd be the most likely to adapt quickly. I have suppressed memories of Braun at third, but I thought his issues were mostly with throwing / footwork, which would be less an issue at first. I don't know whether there's any concerns that first base might be bad for Braun's health, though...it might be that back or thumb would be more endangered there? Rogers is never going to be a top tier starter, but he could hold down the fort while we waited for a better option. I would indeed look to trade Lind this offseason. He should have more value now because a team will have him for a full year and can plan their roster with him in mind...a contending team is unlikely to deal a major leaguer during the season, but could do so in the offseason when they can make other moves to fill a hole. (Say, if we can find a young 3b option...?) He's not a slam dunk for a QO, but an offseason deal allows the team that trades for him to offer him if they choose...and so I'd want to negotiate as though he were getting a QO, and get more than the equivalent of a late first round pick.

Well, there's the Marlins boom and bust approach to winning a championship, but frankly, if I could choose, I'd prefer the team that wins 85-100 games every year for a decade or two as opposed to a team that wins it all then loses 108 games the following year. In the time the Marlins have existed, St Louis also has two world championships, but they've had a lot more interesting baseball along the way. Atlanta has only one, but would you really prefer the Marlins over that time frame? Honestly, making the playoffs 8 years out of ten is probably a lot harder than winning a world series...you can get some breaks and win a championship, but consistently winning require organizational excellence throughout, and you can't just luck into that.

A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.

I don't have much sympathy for Garza...of 85 qualified pitchers in the majors, his ERA is 83rd and his FIP is 82nd. I'm sure it's a shock for him for a team to feel that they're better off if he just doesn't pitch any more, but I think it's hard to argue that the Brewers aren't justified. Still, I wonder if they Brewers have a good plan for controlling innings for the younger pitchers on the roster. Having Garza and Lohse suck up a few innings might well be a good investment in the future.

I've said it before, but what is the internet for if not repetition? Melvin always seemed to look for fair trades; he gave up talent to get talent, and if I remember correctly he said at some point that dealing fairly with other GMs meant that other teams would continue to be willing to deal with Milwaukee...fleecing someone or dealing damaged goods might give you a short term win, but burns bridges and makes it harder to get good deals down the road. Fiers is a not insignificant talent and has four years of control, one of which is essentially free...I'll miss him even though trading him was the right thing to do. I could see Houston sign him to a multiyear deal to buy out arby, honestly. Still, the return for Milwaukee looks promising right now, and it's not too much of a stretch to see all four of those guys playing a major league role in '17 if not sooner. Classic trade that helps two teams in different stages of contention. I would, however, prefer a true defensive CF next year, which would require trading at least one of Davis, Lind, Braun and a possible change of position as well. (Braun to LF or 1B, Davis to 1B?) The infield is probably more important, but I'm a big fan of putting a good defense behind our young pitchers.

I would look at it in part as giving rookies some time to acclimate to MLB hitters...development time to get a head start on the future. There's also some amount of saving face for Garza; it's not because he's awful, it's so we can take a look at some young pitchers.

Just when I was starting to sweat draft order, Garza comes though.

It's worth remembering that the league ops is .711 right now whereas it was it was in the .750s ten years ago. I think many people's expectations haven't fully adjusted; at .852 Braun is 11th in the NL in OPS and there's only three guys over .925.

John Baker (former A's draftee IIRC) had a nice piece on this: http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/playing-baseball-right-way-depends-three-factors-when-who-where-061615 We're very fortunate that the best players in the world come to MLB, and they bring a variety of traditions with them. As Baker says, 'the right way to play' starts out as a function of where you learned the game and from whom...but it doesn't have to stay that way. I for one think Gomez is fun, and that the game should be fun, and that Joe Girardi needs to get over himself...

Starters on the 40 man roster are a bit tight right now; they could try Thornburg or bring up Tyler Wagner from AA. The other minor leaguers on the 40 are Kintzler, Guilmet, Strong, and Hellweg, none of whom are good candidates. Zach Davies and Hiram Burgos might be worth a look, but would require 40 man roster spots; I think Davies is a lock for one this offseason so I don't see that as a problem, but I'm not sure what they're thinking with Burgos these days.

Alt title: Kirby and the elbow curse? Gulp. http://m.brewers.mlb.com/news/article/145321176

Tough on lefties, so it's worth a flier; trying to spin straw into bullpen gold is exactly what a last place team should be doing in late August.

I hope the new front office cares about defense a little bit more than the current version... Still, exciting to see what Santana can do...there's a bit of a logjam right now with Davis hitting so well and Braun and Lind our best hitters, so might as well give it a shot with a groundball guy on the mound; our CF options aren't exciting and there's AL parks coming soon. Santana in Colorado Springs is getting to the point where it's not safe for opposing pitchers.

To be fair, it's more than newspaper reports; Lopez was rated as top breaking ball in the Southern League by BA in its annual top tools ranking. I'm not sure this is the strongest league for pitching this year, but competition includes Blake Snell, Frankie Montas, Jose Berrios (all were included in the rankings); I've read positive reports of each of those guys' breaking pitches at times, and MLB has them each in the 55-60 range. As always it is tough to piece together a reliable picture of minor league pitchers with many old and conflicting scouting reports out there.

Small sample alert, but it seems like maybe Adrian Houser likes pitching in front of the Biloxi defense? Lots of ground balls and Ks, and maybe knowing he has Arcia and Rivera back there has helped him cut down the walks? Just speculation based on three starts of course...