SoCalBrewfan

Yeah, the current regime clearly values defensive versatility, particularly in bench players. (That's not exactly rocket science of course.) Having a four man bench including Aguilar really limited their flexibility...scooter as a 2b only, and a poor one at that, wasn't the solution to that problem. Franklin doesn't seem like a really good defender anywhere, but he's at least mediocre at several positions, not just one.

At first glance I was a bit underwhelmed by the return, but I think this is a solid deal from both teams' perspectives. It is very much a Stearns trade, with the possibility of acquiring an asset just before its value goes big. The strategy of developing relievers and moving them at a time of high value seems wise given the state of the team and MLB. Shaw was a pretty good defender at third, it seems, so there is a likelihood of having a significantly improved infield defense across the board compared to last season. In terms of the team's short term needs he seems like a great fit, as a lefty bat with some pop and a stable solution at third. We have a perfect platoon partner in Perez as well. I didn't know a lot about Dubon before the deal (a Boston prospect without big hype??!), but everything I read seems very promising, and I feel like he'll be the best player on our side of this deal. Pennington adds to the stable of big arms, but realistically his best case is probably a Tyler Thornburg level reliever. Much as I've liked watching Thornburg establish himself, there have always been concerns about his durability. It sure seemed like his workload early in 2014 contributed to his subsequent issues, and while he seemed to thrive last season, there's a very real fear that he'll break down again. I'm sad to see him go, but from a value point of view I think it's a good time to make this deal.

That speaks as much to the state of the Dbacks farm system as anything else; they're not the Angels but they're definitely a bottom third system. Oddly, three of their current top 30 prospects were drafted by Milwaukee--Tyler Wagner is the third. (You might argue that our current scouting director bears some of the responsibility, but he drafted guys like Touki Toussaint, Aaron Blair, and Isan Diaz and then somebody else shipped them out.)

The PCL absorbed the old American Association a few years ago, so there are about half the teams east of the Rockies now, which explains the 'american' and 'pacific' names in the divisions. In fact, Colorado Springs is in an 'American' division with Iowa, Omaha, and OKC, so a more midwestern team would make a lot of sense. Wichita had a long minor league (and college) baseball tradition but couldn't support their AA team, otherwise that would seem like a good geographical fit.

Correct, there's a very good reason the Brewers wanted out of High Desert and ended up in Brevard County. In the early 2000s the Brewers were skipping prospects past A+ and sending them right to AA because they felt the AZ weather was having a negative effect on player development, and I'm not talking about the heat but rather the extremely high offensive output. High Desert plays in Adelanto, California, not in Arizona at all. Like nearby Lancaster it's at pretty high altitude (almost 3000 feet) and it's one of the most extreme hitters' environments in the minors. It's pretty hot there in the summer, but it's not nearly as hot as Phoenix, and the temperatures are less important than the altitude anyway. (It also might well be more pleasant kind of hot than, say, Carolina League parks...having spent summers in New Orleans and Atlanta I'd take the desert over the humid southeast any time.) FWIW Vegas is at about 2000 feet and Cashman field is a hitters' park, but it's at least a bit less so than Colorado Springs.

It's entirely possible that not a single player from the 2013 draft will ever play a day in MLB. Devin Williams, Taylor Williams, and Garrett Cooper are the only players with even a chance. That's always possible, but I think such a definitive statement is premature. Very few 2013 draftees have made any major league impact yet, and high school players from that draft like Neuhaus, Denson and Aviles are still only 21 (though admittedly none of those guys are exactly beating down the doors). A few draftees are in AA now, and it doesn't take much for a reliever like Tristan Archer or Clint Terry to get the call. The first guy to hit the majors probably won't do so for the Brewers; 3rd rounder Barrett Astin was traded to the Reds so that we could enjoy Jonathan Broxton's pitching, and he is a pretty decent bet to pitch in the majors in the very near future; he has a 2.5 era and whip under 1.00 in the southern league this year.

He's a kid that's been easy to root for, and I give him a lot of credit for turning his career and his life around. I get that there were good baseball reasons to trade him, but he was the one guy from the bullpen that I hoped they'd hold on to. To me he's in the category of Jeff Cirillo and Chris Capuano, sentimental favorites who happened to be darned good players who just seemed to fit in Milwaukee, and guys that I secretly hope will return and retire as Brewers. Best of luck to JJ, and thanks to agent39 for giving us a little peek behind the scenes.

Defensive stats have their limitations, but I don't think I've seen any that had Villar as adequate at SS this year. Fangraphs has him at -12.4 runs defensively at shortstop, for example. At some point he gives back too much of the value he generates with his bat and baserunning...and that's not likely to improve in coming years. Most 3b don't have the same profile with good OBP and mediocre SLG, but Martin Prado and Jose Ramirez are in the same realm, and they're ranked #12 and 15 in WAR, respectively, by Fangraphs, even without Villar's baserunning value. If Villar, a mediocre to bad SS, can be a good defensive 3B, he can still be above average at third. (Assuming the offense is for real, of course.) Of course he's also possibly a top ten, 4-win player at 2b, where his defense should translate well and the offensive expectations are less, and that's kind of the elephant in the room. I don't know what the team thinks of Scooter but he doesn't seem like a Stearns kind of player...

I think that's a reasonable analysis except that we were trading away not the past value of Lucroy and Jeffress, but the remainder of their respective contracts. So if you're very optimistic maybe 7 WAR for 1.5 years of Lucroy and then something like 6 for Jeffress? That sets the bar considerably lower.

If Maldy hits .240/.250 I'll buy season tickets for you. I think the .240 OBP he can do but the SLG might be a stretch.

I think the negative reactions are overstated. The rest of this season is about evaluation and development...they can invest major league playing time in some guys, including position switches, and see how they respond. They've likely answered a number of questions already (e.g., Walsh, Middlebrooks, and arguably Flores, are not part of the solution) but the near term and longer term future infield is still up for debate. I think it's a given that Arcia is the long term SS and Villar is not; Perez has earned a further look but where do Villar and Perez fit? To me this just says they want to get a good read on the following: - Is Arcia ready for prime time next year? - How will Villar handle 3b? - What role(s) besides utility IF / 3b can Perez play going forward? Add those to extended trials for Pina and Broxton, and they have a sense of their needs for next spring. I'm still not sure whether they see Scooter as a stopgap or a fixture at 2b, but if they think Villar is part of the future (and it seems that they do), you'd like to know whether he's productive at third and/or whether he should replace or complement Scooter.

Newhouse (I can't spell it the Dutch way; I just can't) I've always thought Carlos Villanueva and Nieuwenhuis should get together with Tucker Neuhaus and former Packer Marshall Newhouse and do...well, what exactly I'm not sure. We don't have many waiver opportunities aside from Garza and Braun I don't think, and neither of those guys are likely trade candidates unless Garza has a run of not-awfulness. Most everyone else is on a dirt cheap contract and unlikely to pass through waivers.

If they want a lefty (and I imagine they do) they could add Kirkman or Suter.

I'm intrigued to see what tools the new regime seems to value. Between the last couple of drafts and recent trades, it seems like we have at least a dozen guys with 60 or better fastballs now. That seems like progress...is Bickford now our best fastball? Brinson might be the only 60 power guy though. Am I missing anybody? Diaz and Gatewood are probably in the next tier, along with maybe Coulter, Nottingham, or maybe Erceg? Between Brinson, Phillips, Ray, and Clark, it seems like we could have one heckuva defensive outfield down the road...infield, too, really, depending on how it shakes out with Villar and others.

I shudder to think of what's not being taught in history these days... Starcraft Sigh....serious students of these matters know the Yamato's finest hour didn't come until 2199 or so. And now I will always think of Jordan 'Space Battleship' Yamamoto and his best pitch, the wave motion cannon.

I like it for a third rounder. Seems most likely to be a power reliever but you can imagine a not-unreasonable chance of him being a rotation piece.

Yep, that's it, fold the tent. With this pick the Brewers will never win another game ever again. Every year there are critics certain that our draftees will never overcome that hitch in their swing, or their excessive weight, or whatever. Of course plenty of them are right just by accident, because a lot of draft choices do fail. But I've seen critics of Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Jimmy Nelson, who were equally certain that their preferred choice was vastly superior. (For full disclosure, I was one of them in the case of Prince...) The more adamant they are, the less I take them seriously.

It would be one thing is Arcia and Phillips were stuck on the bench behind Nieuwenhuis and Hill but we are not talking about those types of prospects. We are talking about second chance-r guys who we picked basically off the heap to see if any of them could be salvaged on this team. Yeah, but one of the advantages of not being expected to compete is that you can invest some playing time into a youngish guy like Hernan Perez or Ramon Flores and potentially make straw into gold. A start or two a week plus a couple of pinch hits doesn't really give those guys the chance to get into a consistent rhythm, and then some players will press to show they deserve more playing time. That said, I think they've actually done a decent job of putting some of the younger guys into situations where they can succeed. In particular it seems like both Perez and Flores are getting healthy and regular doses of playing time this month, and both have responded well. (Flores' numbers still look bad due to his terrible start but his May has been really solid.) I'd rather see Cecchini over Hill, for example, but I guess they're investing some PAs hoping that Hill will have some trade value.

In my opinion, the Brewers need to give some additional thought to team defense. It's terrible right now, and while we certainly didn't expect to win this year, it's not a good developmental situation for the younger pitchers on the roster. Villar, for all that's he's been solid with the bat, seems to be part of the problem, as he's consistently rated as below average defensively at short. (You may not trust individual fielding metrics, but they're across the board negative for him.) It remains to be seen whether he'd be an above average fielder at third, but I'd rather get some insight on that, and whether he might be a medium-term solution at 2b or 3b, given that it's already a lost season.

When evaluating the pitchers, we should remember that the Brewers have a really bad defense. Depending on what metrics you believe, they're somewhere from bottom six to absolute worst in MLB, and none of the starting position players look particularly good in individual defensive stats. It's a small sample, but also one that is consistent with the track records of most of these players. I think the pitchers look worse than they are simply because balls in play are not being reliably turned into outs. That's not to say things are great, but it's especially hard for pitchers who rely on balls in play to succeed with this defense behind them, and we don't really have a lot of high-K guys among the starters. I don't know whether that contributes to the really high number of walks issued, but it is a brutal combination.

This is one of those years where the starting lineup at the beginning of the season won't be the same as the lineup at the end, so who's on third on opening day is not really a huge deal. I fully expect Hill to get more AB than his performance deserves, but I suppose there's a chance that he figures something out and lets us cash him in for something useful. Odds are good that our 2017 opening day starter at 3b is not presently in the organization...while I'd like to see Cecchini reinvigorated, he's got work to do...

I don't know that anyone expects Flores to be an all-star, but he looks like he's ready to be a pretty good 4th OF this year, and he's still only 23. Obviously his best skill is getting on base, which it seems the new Brewers value a lot more than was previously the case. He hasn't shown a ton of power, but his ISO in AAA was better than at lower levels. In two partial seasons of AAA his ISO is 167, which just for the sake of comparison is better than Prince Fielder managed last year. I'm not sure why you assert that he can't be a first baseman, as he's played first a bit in the minors (50 games out of 700ish). He's doesn't profile as a starter at first base, but as a lefty bat he's an ideal backup and complement to our RH starters at LF, RF, and 1b. Santana was much, much better against LHP in his small sample last year, so it might be wise to give him in particular some breaks against RHP. Add the twenty or so games Braun will be dinged up and the lack of clarity in CF, and I would guess that there's no shortage of PA for Flores if he's healthy. He is in the same boat as Reed in many ways, profiling as a good on base guy who would be stretched as a regular in CF but may not have the power for a corner. A few guys like that will add enough with the bat to become starters, like our old friend Michael Brantley. (Flores has better AAA numbers than Brantley, for whatever it's worth.)

Hm, 420 is an interesting choice; I assume it would shatter the record for teammates. Marlon Byrd and Ryan Howard combined for 375 K for the Phillies in '14. Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce combined for 363 (Votto chipped in another 129). Reynolds and Upton 360 in 09, Reynolds and Chris Young 369 in 08. But if you want teammate K numbers, check out the 2010 dbacks who almost had five guys with 150: Reynolds 211, Laroche 172, Upton 152, Kelly Johnson 148, Chris Young 145. We've got work to do... Of course the Cubs last year led the league in Ks; they had 199 from Bryant, 154 from Fowler, and 149 from Russell, and 90K guys at every position. I'd still take that offense though.

I think this is a good baseball trade; we had a surplus of corner OF, and Davis was the most logical one to deal...he has positive trade value, but is limited defensively and a better fit for an AL team. Now we can give Santana major league development time, find PAs for Liriano and Flores, and have a stronger defensive outfield. I don't feel like I'm in a good position to judge the return, but I was honestly hoping for something more. Still, Nottingham looks like a really solid bat who might well fill a position of need. I like how he drew walks in the minors, even when he was struggling in rookie ball. Seems like he could well be a Napoli type, who hits enough to have value at another position even if he's not the greatest defensive catcher. I wouldn't be surprised to see the NL with a DH before he's in the majors, so there may be more of a home in Milwaukee for bats with limited defensive value than is presently the case. I don't know a thing about Bubba Derby, but, well, I can't help but like the name and the K rate. I am still more than a bit sad to see Khris Davis go. It's perhaps in part irrational attachment to a kid who went to Cal State Fullerton (I have my own attachment to CSUF)...but it's also that I feel like he's always been underrated by prospect watchers and fans alike. This past year he struggled early and had injury problems, essentially losing his job to Parra, but he came roaring back in the second half and ended up having a really good season. I wish him well, and would love to see him hit 30 HR for the next four years even if it means we are perceived as 'losing' the trade.

My guess would be that Hill will get a few starts a week, mostly to give Scooter and/or Cecchini a break against LHP, in the hope that he rebuilds some value and provides some stability for a youngish infield. I would also guess that they will give him a pretty short leash. If he's stinking up the joint, then we move on quickly. The Andy Wilkins projection does draw the eye...I wish I believed it. He did rake in AAA in '14, and has a home run every 23 AB or so in the minors, but I think I'll take the under on that projection nevertheless. I like the Santana projection though, and Flores' and Coulter's projections seem promising. I imagine that part of the difference between projections of our pitchers is based on the various assumptions about the defense and BABIP. I am a bit dubious of some of those projections, but it's sure interesting to see Hader, Cravy, and Burgos projected to be as good as Peralta and Davies ahead of him. Wily's K rate was way down, and the system doesn't see him bouncing back.