SoCalBrewfan

And yes, given his age, he might reasonably be compared to a 2018 college draftee. Most of the top college bats from that draft started this season in A ball and have had a half season of AA. (I guess at least one is in Arizona Cardinals training camp...)

Comparing Grisham to someone like Saladino is deeply flawed. Yeah, we should be skeptical of a hot streak that doesn't follow from past performance, and we should take into account park affects. But, Grisham's emergence shows signs of being more than a fluke. He's a young guy for the league who was a highly regarded hitter in the draft but whose performance seemed to suffer due to his overly passive approach at the plate. His wRC+ has still always been 100+ despite him being quite young for his leagues, and he's always run good OBP even when his BA and SLG seemed disappointing. (In part, that reflects challenging environments for hitters in the Brewers' low minors, R+ excepted. Of course Grisham skipped R+.). Now as he's addressed the flaw that everyone saw in his approach, the results have followed. He's got less defensive value than some other brewers OF prospects, but some of the arguments about his offensive potential sound more like attempts to win an argument than serious evaluations of his future value.

I mean we did trade for Gio Gonzalez just last deadline, so it's clear he's not allergic to the concept. Chase Anderson, too, was an established starter that Stearns got in trade. We're likely to need at least one new starter next year so I wouldn't be stunned to see a deal for a guy who has some team control left. We don't have a lot of prospect capital but Stearns definitely seems willing to spend what he has...I can imagine some reshuffling of the major league roster with Arcia or Aguilar available as well.

No doubt they'll look on this stretch as a missed opportunity, and maybe even the stretch that cost them the playoffs, but the season is long and most teams have a week or two when they look like the 27 Yankees or the 62 Mets. There was a point this year when the Mariners looked like something and the AL West looked like a two-team race between them and the Astros. Oops. There was a time when the Phillies looked great, the Mets were a thing and the Nationals were dead. The Red Sox and Yankees both looked terrible at one point. Never judge an MLB team or player when they're at their best, or at their worst.

I don't think it's all about Super 2, but that's clearly a bullet point on a white board somewhere and you can be darned sure that the front office has a date in mind for Hiura being safe from Super 2. I think they had a plan for the start of the season and it didn't involve Hiura coming on as fast as he did, and now they're trying to convince themselves to change the plan and haven't quite gotten there yet. I think the bottom line is that they really don't like to make decisions that they can't undo until they feel it's necessary. They held onto Thames, Aguilar, and Choi for quite some time, until they used Choi to fill another need. Choi of course has proven to be valuable in TB though he's a complementary piece rather than a star. The team has made mistakes before on player value based on a bad year or half year, only to lose someone who turned out to be still pretty valuable. (All teams have, of course.) We didn't just give Segura away, but you could definitely argue that we sold low on a young former all star shortstop after two down years. Similarly I feel like they misplayed Domingo Santana and convinced themselves he wasn't worth much after his down year, while he has essentially reverted to the 2017 player in Seattle. So how sure are you that Shaw and Aguilar are done? If you listened to some fans, Davies and Anderson were afterthoughts as far as the rotation goes, but they've been two of our four best starters this year. Albers was left for dead after last year's performance but he's been pretty similar to his '17 season right now aside from the ERA.

In addition to the above names, Garrett Cooper would be a great fit for the current Brewers' roster, as a RH hitting 1b/LF who is presently slashing 313/385/496. We traded him to the Yankees for a guy I had to look up, and then wished I hadn't. Mostly we've kept the right guys but there are a few I'm sure the front office would like do-overs on. For many years the Brewers blew their early picks but hit on useful pieces later in the draft. That is in part the nature of the draft and the strategy of going for high risk and high reward in early rounds and higher floor players later. Jack Z had some hits and some misses, and I think his record in retrospect falls a bit short of his reputation at the time. Sadly, even our safe looking picks (Bradley, Jungmann) didn't often pan out, and the cumulative effect of those early round misses is a notable big league talent deficit that had to be filled with trades and signings. Some of the trades in turn moved out guys like Haniger or Odorizzi who could have filled important holes and reduced the need for more trades or signings. In the end though it doesn't really matter where the talent started; you don't get extra points for home runs that came from guys you drafted. I like following the guys we draft, but if you can move Jason Rogers for Broxton and Trey Supak you do it and improve the overall talent level. The fact that Hader or Houser came from elsewhere doesn't diminish their impact. Plus you can count them as part of the legacy of drafting JJ Hardy all those years ago...

Wow. Hard not to love this for the Brewers...at catcher you're either looking at mediocrity or one of a very small number of studs and we just got one of the studs. Pina is not terrible, either, so catcher is suddenly a position of strength. This deal also makes so much more sense for the Brewers than it would for many other teams...the draft pick we lose is relatively low value and the one year deal works for a team that just missed the World Series. Now a second baseman please?

Who knows - 3/$39M might end up being his best option. Or 1/18.5 I guess...shows how poorly I read this market...

I always enjoy JosephC's contributions as well. For whatever it's worth, Craig Edwards at FanGraphs has slightly different values, perhaps because he's using $9M/win? In the list he puts Ray's value at $20M, Lutz at $25M, and Hiura at $44M. A pitcher at the 80 spot, 50 FV would be similar to Ray I'd guess...that's a median future WAR of 2.3. You'd think that Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta (in that order, IMO) with their varying degrees of major league success would each be good for at least that over the next six years. Heck, six 0.5 win seasons puts them at surplus value of $27M. You have to be somewhat optimistic about Bumgarner to get a surplus value of $20M or more (needs a 3.5 win season, right?), which is part of the reason I'd be reluctant to move any of those six for him. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/ The later article below puts the value of a 45 FV at well south of that, though, and we don't even have many guys in that range, so you're probably looking at a quantity deal, or no deal at all. It's really hard to match up, particularly if there are disparate reads on Bumgarner's expected value. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/

I think I've read that Grandal turned down 4/$60M from the Mets, so I don't think 3/$39M is likely to land him anyway. C is one of those positions where there are only a handful of guys that are well above average, so there is a premium attached to them...but then the workload and injury risk associated with the position make it hard to come out too far ahead of the pack and increases the risk of dead money and/or prospects spent for little gain. (There were three catchers with >3 WAR per fan graphs, and 8 more between 2 and 3.) Our 2b situation is sufficiently dire that it has to be the priority for whatever resources we have left to spend this offseason, and there are enough possibilities available that you should be able to get a decent solution without too much future pain.

The fangraphs article cited above is probably a good lens on how Stearns will value Bumgarner. Unlike a lot of fans (for both SF and Milwaukee) he will not be swayed by World Series performance or past performance, but rather an estimate of what you get in 2019. There are signs of decline, and limited innings the last two years...maybe those are just fluke injuries, but the performance is down across the board. Valuing him as though he were still the 2014 guy who is a lock for 200 innings sub 3 era, and thus moving your best assets like Hiura, Burnes, or even Ray, is a huge risk. If the Giants are expecting return like that I think they'll end up keeping him. It's a good deal, mind you, a good starter on a one year $12M deal with the possibility of a QO. On the open market that would get you Lance Lynn last year, or Matt Harvey this year, and MB is a good bet to be worth more so there is surplus value there...but of course a FA signing doesn't cost you any prospects, and there are likely to be decent FA deals on starters as spring approaches if that's what you're looking for. In that analysis, a 50 FV prospect is too much given the surplus value on the contract. If you buy the valuation of prospects that fangraphs has put forth, Hiura, Ray, and Lutz should be off the table in a deal. The next tier is Turang, Dubon, Zack Brown, maybe Ashby and I'm not sure I could do that if I'm the Giants. Two years of Paxton got a top 100 guy with some questions and two others, and this is just one year of control so the return should be even less. Do you get what you can for the guy now, or hope he is on fire at the deadline?

Yeah, I imagine that Stearns is looking for value in the 2b market, and I think his track record suggests that he's going to value defense as well as positional flexibility. It does seem likely that they'll wait a bit to see which chips fall where and then swoop in on a budget option, maybe a dark horse like Descalso or whichever of Dozier, Lowrie, LeMahieu, Cabrera is left without a chair when the music stops. Murphy could fit as a part time 1b/2b as noted but I agree that the numbers are not kind to his defense at second, and I'd be a bit surprised to see them go that way. Marwin Gonzalez is a guy I could see them liking, but he seems likely to get three or four years and I think we're probably not up for that. I have also wondered whether they'd take Kipnis and his contract in a deal for a Cleveland pitcher to reduce the prospect cost required.

Journalists and fans like to talk about who wins the offseason. It is very rarely true that the teams perceived to have added the most in the offseason are the teams that do well when the games start counting. Here's an article from last December: https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/sd-sp-mlb-early-offseason-winners-and-losers-20171215-story.html Yankees, Angels, Cardinals. How'd that work out? Here's another: https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/nationals/2018-mlb-offseason-grades-every-team Again the Angels with an A. The World Series teams got a B+ and a C. Brewers got an A-, and you could certainly argue that they were an example of winning the offseason and having that show up on the field. But many of the most improved teams (Braves, A's) got middling grades. I'm sure we'll make a few moves, but with luck we'll make them because the improve the team and not because some fans and journalists are bored.

I honestly think the system is at a low ebb, and a bottom ten rating would be deserved. It's not surprising; we've graduated some nice pitchers and traded away 11 minor leaguers to boost the major league roster last summer. Still, Hiura is the only guy I'd bet actual dollars on being a major league regular at this point. That's not disastrous given that we have good long term assets in place across much of the major league roster, and guys on the brink at some of the places where the major league team has holes (e.g., Dubon, Hiura, Nottingham). It does mean there are fewer bullets for upcoming trades, and it would be wise (in my opinion) to focus on free agency to add pieces this year. I get that we can point to individuals who are talented and could take steps forward. My sense in following the Brewers and other teams for years is that there are always guys in every system who are on the rise but as yet underrated. We just know who they are in our system because we obsess over their every move. I don't honestly believe that the Brewers have more such players than most other teams, though I would of course be happy to be proven wrong. I like a number of guys from their last draft or three, and it will be interesting to see whether, or to what extent, the newfound interest in Latin America pays dividends, but for now I think the cupboard is fairly bare.

I believe that a 60-day dl assignment for QTC or any other minor leaguer would result in him accruing major league service time, accelerating his path to arbitration and free agency. Teams are reluctant to do this.

How would you root for anyone now that the MLB season is over? Is there some pointless exhibition game or series being played somewhere?

You'd think Maeda would be the next P for the Dodgers?

I teach at a university in Southern California. One of my students this semester is a hardcore dodgers fan, and we've been commiserating at just how stressful this series has been...the morning after the 13 inning game he missed class and while I can't fully condone that, I can certainly understand. Anyway, he's been convinced since game 3 that the Brewers will win. I told him today 'I think you guys have this' and he said he's sure I'm wrong. I offer this in part because I think it shows that this team has made people outside Wisconsin notice, and I have seen up close that this doesn't feel at all like an easy series to the Dodgers fans. I've been a Brewers fan since I was about 10, almost 40 years now, and while I'd love to see the Brewers return to the World Series, it's also been a season that I'll always remember fondly, win or lose tonight.

To me, they've been playing with house money for quite some time now. The games are super stressful, but anyone who tries to paint this season as anything other than a rousing and inspiring success...I just don't get it.

Is this a live onsite update? Sadly, no...timing is too difficult.

Alex Wood deserves some kind of recognition for getting to a three ball count on Schoop. That's the kind of accomplishment that doesn't show up in the box score, but I'm sure he'll treasure the memory.

Shutout the Dodgers in their park...that's a heckuva game. Wasn't always pretty, but a bit of perspective is in order...LA is a very good baseball team and they are going to get runners on base. For all that the Brewers' starters were supposed to be the weak link, that's back to back great starts from Miley and Chacin in the NLCS. Anyone who says they saw that coming in April, well I don't believe you.

Also, I did not foresee Brewers playoff baseball in SoCal. I really, really wish those were not weekday night games...though of course the home fans of the Brewers deserve the better schedule....

This was not a close series. You expect runs to be scarce in the playoffs, and the Rockies' pitching and defense is no joke, so the complaints about missed opportunities should be taken with a grain of salt. Our pitching and defense is also no joke, though, and the Rockies just wilted. It's been said many times, but I'll give Stearns huge props for assembling this roster and Counsell for getting the team to buy in to their roles. I admit that I wanted another starter in April, and I wondered what they heck they were doing at the deadline, but the results speak for themselves.

He has arguably the highest OBP in the league, Wait, how does one argue that Cain's OBP is higher than Votto's? Cain should legit get votes, but I doubt he gets as many as he probably should...I don't think defense is as highly valued as it should be in MVP votes. I would think a voter who does actually recognize his value would also value Yelich and be wise enough not to penalize Yelich for having a good teammate.