SoCalBrewfan

Call him Charlie McGee...starts fires with his mind! www.imdb.com/title/tt0087262/ And, yeah, I'm sure Ned saw a possible double switch and couldn't resist a chance for some Managing.

I thought going to Villanueva made a lot of sense, for the exact reason that Doug articulated above...good chance to get the kid a stretch of innings and some experience. But I just don't get this pinch-hit decision and the subsequent pitching change it will require.

It's because Dessens is a veteran who knows how to win.

It should also be noted that Jack Z has drafted a lot of HS players since he's taken over, so those guys will necessarily take more time to hit the big leagues...and so it's likely that players from recent drafts who will have Major League time will just have started their careers. And when you look, you see that is the case...it will be difficult to judge current drafts for many years still. It's also hard to compare drafts directly with that measure because some teams have many more premium picks over the FA compensation era. The A's of course are the pros at this, but other teams routinely have multiple first-round and comp picks...I don't think Jack Z has ever had a comp pick. Of course, we have had relatively high picks, which is also a factor. That said, I do see some picks that I felt to be wasted over the Jack Z era. Clearly the guy swings for the fences sometimes, and sometimes he misses...Josh Murray, anyone? But he hits, too, with enough regularity that the Brewers are now considered contenders almost completely on the basis of drafted players. I wouldn't call Jack Z the best in the business, but he's in the upper tier...though I'd probably put him behind guys like Radcliff, Rizzo, and White.

While you can argue that the scouting department has missed on guys like Kazmir, Weaver, Drew and Bard, they have hit on so many other players. I would go further here. I don't think we really know for sure what the Brewers' scouts thought of Kazmir, Weaver, or Drew, because each of those guys slid a long way in the draft for reasons other than talent. For whatever reason, the Brewers have never taken a swing at a guy like Drew or Nady as they slid...that applies to many Boras clients of course, but others as well IIRC. The most popular interpretation is that it's a matter of frugality, but I think in part they want to choose guys whose signing expectations are clear and who will get signed and start their career ASAP. The Maybin negotiations took a long time IIRC, and at one point the Tigers took their offer off the table out of pure frustration. While I've often wished for the Brewers to take a shot at a tough sign like this, apparently they don't want that kind of risk...better the risk that comes with a 18-year-old RHP I guess. Interesting thread though...wish I'd seen it earlier.

Batting average on balls in play looks pretty nice so far.

Darren Ford is getting jobbed here... Well, there's no real surprise there IMO...we all knew they had a logjam in the outfield. You have to expect movement in a couple of months, though. From one of the other threads, the Huntsville OF is Moss, Katin, and TBD right now. I assume that the TBD is a vacancy that will eventually be filled by Gillespie, which in turn will leave a corner open in Brevard for Ford or Brantley. At the same time, Moss and Fermaint are ripe for advancement in CF, each having spent some time at their current levels last season.

The Brewers decided to make things more difficult on themselves by making Hall a CF when they already had three of them (Gross and Hart, plus Clark) on the roster. The Brewers felt that none of those three were long-term solutions in CF...and I think that's the right assessment.

IMO the Brewers would have been wise to get him on the field at a position he could adequately play right now to take advantage of that. That didn't happen, and now they have to gamble on his potential ability not to let his throwing problems get the best of him. I disagree. Braun as a 3B is worth much more to the org than Braun as a LF, and it's worth investing some time for that potential return. If they stuck him in LF this year, particularly if he hits, that is for all intents and purposes an irreversible change...he's unlikely to ever be a 3B. On the other hand, the move to the OF, should it become necessary, is typically believed to be an easier transition. I don't even see that it really weakens the team in the short term to have Braun working on his 3B defense in AAA...they have a glut of outfielders for 2007 anyway. As noted in many discussions, the arby and free-agent implication of Braun in a part-time major league role are very undesirable. That all assumes Hall in CF, of course...at one point it seemed that a possible configuration would be Hall at third, Braun in CF.

...people with disposable income are not downloading legal and illegal versions of the hot new indy artist most likely to overdose. They'd rather go see the "comfort food" of music, those that were big back when they were young. I must admit, that Star Trib article is a sign of why the newspaper industry is falling quickly... Wow, Al is in full-on generalization mode here...add these to 'Aaron Gleeman says music snobs don't like popular music' and you have truly searing insight on the entertainment industry, news media, and life in general. If you think that Star-Trib article is highly snobbish, you haven't been reading much about music...that was pretty mild. But I'm sure that article and its tone far eclipses internet news sources as a threat to printed newspapers. I have a colleague who teaches in one of the UW system campuses, and she cited one of her typical-college-aged students as a huge Ronnie James Dio fan. Which stunned me, because he was popular among my high school pals 20 plus years ago...I was almost as surprised when my college students were talking about a U2 concert...I remember seeing them when I was in college. Kids these days. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Also, the Gear Daddies rule. That's one act from my youth that I'd go see at a moment's notice...

where in the rules does it say that a player cannot be traded until June 15th if they sign as a Free Agent? Article XX (B) (6) of the CBA. Though this link says it's June 16 this year: mlbcontracts.blogspot.com...es_03.html

I have this hope that Jenks brings it into the regular season and has a HUGE contract year. AP: May 2007. Jenkins, Milwaukee Ink 5-year Extension. After a stellar first half, Geoff Jenkins felt he had redeemed himself for a poor 2006 that saw him benched and complaining. Apparently Doug Melvin agreed: "Geoff really turned things around. We think he can be a key performer, and didn't want the distraction of trade deadline speculation surrounding the heart and soul of our lineup." The terms of the deal have not been released, but sources confirm that it guarantees Jenkins over $70 million for the next five years, with a team option that could push the total payout to $88 million.

So am I reading correctly that the West Virginia OF will be Brantley, Ford, and presumably Chapman? Supplemented by Chuckie Caufield? That's some speed in the OF, then...maybe that will help the pitchers. I'd guess the WV rotation is drawn from this pool: Jean, Ramlow, Braddock, Ferguson, Kretzchmar, Mercedes, Amaury Rivas, Brandon Parrillo. If they piggyback again next year, who's starting isn't all that critical anyway...with that combination of guys piggybacks seem sensible, though perhaps they'll use a hybrid approach with two or three slots filled by older guys who are expected to go longer into games (Ferguson? Jean? Parillo?). Maybe the most intriguing pitching staff this year, after the AAA juggernaut, will be Helena, with some combination of Jeffress, Hill, Anundsen, Aguilar, Pascual, Periard, maybe RJ Seidel, and presumably some college draft picks.

McCalvey writes: A group was sitting in Brewers manager Ned Yost's office over the weekend and the subject of right-hander Mike Jones and left-hander Manny Parra came up. Both have ranked among the team's top pitching prospects in recent seasons, but both have slipped on that list because of injuries. Sounds like it was sort of a low-key version of a press conference...they're writing similar stories because they were both there and heard the same stuff. And it's not like there's even a gripping battle for the backup catcher spot this year...so they gotta write something.

The BA Top 100 made a comparison to Joel Piniero on the upside (pre-injury, which is pretty good), but also to Tim Redding, who blew through minor leaguers but couldn't get anyone out in the bigs. They also note that he's not projectable, not as likely to add velocity as a guy with a bigger frame.

Shanks really ought to have that Smiths song as his entry music. Probably not as scary or intimidating as you'd like, but it would reflect a sense of humor...

I think he is squeezed by the presence of Gross and Clark right now, and maybe even Nix and Gwynn. All of those guys are potential backups who can play various positions, pinch hit, etc. Gwynn, Gross and Nix also bat lefty, and probably have more defensive value in CF. Clark of course has a guaranteed contract. Nix may or may not be in Anderson's way, depending on his health and how much he hits. The good news is that Anderson has options, and that things should clear up considerably next year...Clark and Jenkins will be free agents, and the status of others should be resolved, at least to some extent. Though things could get worse for him if Braun is moved to LF...a major league outfield of Braun, Hall, and Hart would be a tough nut to crack, with Gross as a top backup and designated lefty.

A brief and incomplete summary, with multiple questions on the same player somewhat combined: Brad Nelson, not a prospect. System is still strong despite graduating its top talent. Cain is a great athlete with lots of upside, but still needs plate discipline, ultimately might move to a corner as the fills out. Brent Brewer is a great athlete but raw both offensively and defensively. Jeffress could project as a closer, throws 100 mph, but will remain a starter for now. Kevin Roberts (so many Kevin Roberts questions): close to the top 30, profiles well as a reliever, used to swing a nice bat. Salome is healthy, the team likes him, and he has opportunity given the state of catching in the system. Sarfate impressed the team, strong candidate for the roster this year. The Rogers rating came before his surgery, and there are obviously questions about him now; current plan for him is fall instructional league. Some discussion of the trend of drafting HS pitching, and how they might go easy on Jeffress and Seidel. Much love for Villanueva, no longer a rookie. Braun?s defense questioned by scouts, but the Brewers want to give him every opportunity to stick at third. Koskie issues could speed up his timetable considerably. Some sleepers, late-round gems, and/or near-misses for the Top 30: Roberts (as mentioned), Robert Hinton, Ryan Crew (gritty!), Brendan Katin, R.J. Seidel, Brantley, Ben Stancyzk. I've left out plenty here, like Yo Gallardo is great, because it's not really news. And one direct quote that I found intriguing, for a whole variety of reasons:

This came up in another team's chat recently, where BA penciled in a catcher that didn't project as a starter simply because there were no alternatives. They have a rule at BA that someone in the organization must be considered for the future lineup if he's likely to be better than the in-house alternatives. Thus, even if one thinks Ben Sheets will leave as a free agent, they put him in the 2010 lineup. Even if they think Bill Hall will be traded, he's in there. SImilarly, even if a hole is glaring and organization-wide, they won't project it to be filled via trade or free agency...thus the prior Brewers lineups with Kade Johnson. That does mean those lineups are inherently artificial...but they're fun nevertheless.

Yeah, that and a #5 prospect who's a 26 year old reliever, a couple of 24 year olds in AA, a college corner outfielder with 109 Ks and 18 BB in low A ball at age 22. Reminds me of the Brewers' list with the likes of Brandon Kolb and Mike Penney in the top 15 a few years ago. Cincinnati has some impact talents, to be sure. I don't get the sense that Krivsky is going to be a great GM though, and the last BA had a story of some longtime employees leaving on bad terms, after opposing the Kearns deal for example.

Geno, please be nice. Perhaps you don't recognize tangotiger's handle, but he's the guy who developed the Marcel system and calculated the numbers above, as well as something of a celebrity in the stathead world (for whatever that's worth). He's responding to some of the criticism above, which he perceives as unfair and/or ignorant. Given that the criticism is in response to something he posted on his blog, and has made available as a service to the community (thanks, tango, by the way!), I don't think it's unreasonable to respond there by any means.

At Primer, another study along the same lines, with similar methodology and conclusions: www.baseballthinkfactory...._analysis/ One thing that these results suggest is something that Bill James said long ago, and that others have repeated time and time again: an average starting pitcher who can pitch a lot of innings is a very valuable player. That belief is borne out by the free-agent market, in which someone like Suppan is worth $10M+. That's a result that the Brewers made painfully clear last season...those guys who take the ball 33 times and pitch 6 innings a start are crucial to a successful team, even if they put up a 4.5 ERA. Why? Because if they can't pitch, their replacements are going to give up a lot of runs and wear out the bullpen, with the strong likelihood of a self-enhancing feedback loop. (In other words, shift a reliever into the rotation or move up an ill-prepared guy from AAA, have another game with lots of runs, and thus lots of pitches thrown, the whole staff is worn down, causing further injuries and/or ineffectiveness, causing you to go deeper into your pitching pool, and so on until you have the 2006 Brewers.)

(correct me if I'm wrong here) Marcel doesn't use minor league stats, so Prince's numbers would be based on his major league track record. His 2005 numbers are of little use for projection, but are included anyway IIRC. To be sure, that's one of the limitations of the system, which explicitly doesn't try to be all things for all players. For Prince in particular I would probably take the 'over' on his Marcel slug%...ZiPS is another system that does use minor league numbers, and projects .280 / .358 / .513 with 30 homers. Note also that the Marcel projects only 530 plate appearances, while Fielder actually had almost 650 last year. With his '06 plate appearances he'd have a projected total of 28 HR...which makes some sense because the system only has '06 and a small sliver of '05 with which to calculate. The nice thing about the Brewers is that they have a number of young guys, and it's very possible that one or more will take large steps forward. The likely candidates for decline and/or injuries are at positions where there's some depth (C, 3B, 2b/ss, LF, SP), though multiple injuries and bad years of course would be tough to overcome.

So I get ERA+ based on Jeff's NL numbers as follows: #1: 127 #2: 111 #3: 98 #4: 88 #5: 72 That looks to be a slightly bigger spread for 2006 NL than 2005 AL, but otherwise pretty consistent. I think that suggests that the average #5 starter is basically little better than replacement level if I'm remembering the definition correctly (70% of league average?). It was certainly true in Milwaukee last year...

You can get league era's from baseball reference: 2006 NL: www.baseball-reference.co...2006.shtml League ERA: 4.49 2006 AL: www.baseball-reference.co...2006.shtml League ERA: 4.56 That the AL is only 0.07 runs higher is pretty surprising to me, but I guess three of the best hitters' parks are in the NL (Colo, Hou, Ariz).