You're correct to point out that, in the criminal justice context, innocent people cut deals all the time because they fear the worst-case scenario -- conviction, imprisonment, death penalty, etc. But these are often indigent racial and ethnic minorities who are poorly represented and facing long odds in court. (See the incredible story of Chris Ochoa, who was freed thanks to the Wisconsin Innocence Project.) We're not dealing with anything like those circumstances here. We have a wealthy individual operating outside the criminal justice system who is represented/advised by the best and the brightest. I hate to use absolute terms, but it's completely inconceivable that an innocent person would cut this kind of deal. While I agree with your point about who usually cuts deals (poor or racial minorities vs. rich and educated baseball players), I will argue that the MLB suspension/appeal process would qualify as "facing long odds" as it pertains to Braun thus making him likely to admit guilt and take the deal.