The Cubs have a really tough schedule the next couple of weeks. The Brewers will have an easier slate after this weekend. Famous last words of course, but you know what I mean.
And I know winning the division matters and a whole lot of local fans want that home postseason series, but, from a competitive standpoint, it doesn't matter all that much to me. Honestly, I'd rather play @Philly than home against the Cubs for a host of reasons, which means staying in Wild Card position matters a lot.
Joey just missed one.
Now the real game starts. See if Burnes can get through 7+ while the Cubs have to grind for every out.
Ross letting Steele go even after the Monasterio hit shows you how desperate the Cubs are. Be real sweet to steal this one, though it's mich less high stakes for the Crew after last night.
Some bad ABs and some bad breaks. Cubs bullpen going to have to get at least 9 outs, probably more like 12. That's been a recipe for success for the Crew this year.
Turang is a special defender. Special.
Yeah, baseball odds seem to me to be heavily weighted toward the home field team. Cubs bullpen might be in slightly better shape too, I'd say, though it is a worse bullpen. Plus, the Cubs have the kind of underlying numbers that odds makers need to consider.
Seems like an even series to me!
I had today as a loss. Long way to go yet, but, if results hold, Brewers will have gained a game on the Cubs while the Cubs played the Royals, Tigers, and Pirates, and the Brewers played the Rangers, Twins, and Padres. That's acceptable.
I think the Cubs are better than the Reds. Fangraphs has them almost 5 times more likely to win the division than the Reds, so I'm with the general consensus on this one.
The Cubs big weakness to me seems to be depth and bullpen. I don't know what a rib cartilage fracture is, but it doesn't sound like something Stroman is going to recover from very quickly, especially factoring in a need to ramp up. That injury along might give the Brewers the edge. I'd put Burnes-Woodruff-Peralta-Miley-Houser up against Steele-Hendricks-Taillon-Smyly-? and feel like the Crew should win 3 out of those 5.
If the Brewers can stick around a 2-3 game lead heading into September, I'll feel pretty good. I think we have the best overall team in the division (despite glaring offensive weaknesses).
My one concern about the Reds is that they're going to have some soft landing spots the last couple of weeks of September. Hoping the brutal stretch they're in piles up a bunch of Ls.
Other results going our way.
IF the Brewers can finish this off, they will have gone 8-5 in this 13 game stretch against below .500 competition. That's about the minimum they needed, I think.
The good news is, the Giants, Marlins, and Dbacks have struggled lately, so there's a little playoff cushion right now.
The frustrating part is the Brewers just played 9 games against very bad teams. Going 6-3 would have given them a pretty comfy 3-4 game lead.
They went 4-5.
Braves doing what they do to the Cubs. Marlins and DBacks have tough road series. We'll see if the Nats and and Royals can sneak a win or two this weekend.
Would be really nice if the Crew could put together a 7-2 stretch over the next week or so. Do that, and I'd think you'd have a cushion of a few games in terms of playoff positioning. Might need that as the schedule toughens up starting with the Dodgers series.
I loved all those teams, for many different reasons. 2008 had a September stretch that was utterly gutting, and 2011 and 2018 had very sour endings. 2021 went out with a whimper and a blown save. 2019 was one of the worst losses I can remember as a fan.
None of that soured my enjoyment of those teams completely, but 2016 was a different kind of baseball fandom, watching without pressure and just low-key enjoying games. It was like the difference between a dance club and your neighborhood tavern, and there's space for both.
Now that I've been dejected and deflated for 15 minutes, I'm over it. I don't think this team is good enough to win a World Series, but they'll be competitive to the end of the year. Taking us all the way to October is always the best outcome for me. Plus, there's some good young talent on this roster.
Whatever happens this offseason, I think it's going to be a period of organizational transition. I'll say this: the most fun I ever had following the Brewers was 2016. They weren't good, but they were enjoyable. If that's the worst-case scenario, I'm good with it.
At some point, the offense is going to have to wins some games for this team. You have to get Ws while resting at least 2 of you best 3 BP pitchers.
Hopefully Williams and the rest of the pen can bail them out again today.