Cool Hand Lucroy

Yeah, the schedules are pretty comparable down the stretch. Maybe the Cubs have it slightly better, with a more balanced off-day pattern. They've got a West Coast roadie, though, and no games against teams as bad as the Mets. Both of us play the Reds a lot. Cubs have the Marlins six times. We get Orioles and Rangers. Our Phillies, Cardinals closing is a pretty tough one, but at least it's at home, and who knows? Both of those teams could be playing for very little at that point. Cubs end Marlins-Red Sox, which is a similar, but probably not as difficult, though the Boston series is on the road. It really feels to me like it comes down to the 7 games vs. each other. 4-3 means the Cubs have to make up seven (with the tiebreaker) games over the course of the other 27. That's awfully difficult. 3-4 is still advantage Brewers. You're really letting them back in it if you go 2-5 and really stomping on their hope if you're 5-2. Point is, beat everybody, but especially beat the Cubs.

How about we win 6-1 and save that Seattle A bullpen.

Seconded. And even if the Cubs win tomorrow and pull it down to 4.5, you'll still take that outcome every time. Plus, the tiebreaker with the Dodgers is nontrivial. All in all, this team did what they needed to do, despite a poor series in SD. .500 in 10 West Coast road games, 7 of them against playoff contenders, 4 of those against the 2x reigning champs, and 3 of them against the hottest team in the league. Just a dug in effort from the Crew today. Henderson shoved. Big, two-out hits. Made Skubal work and then kept making pitchers work all afternoon. Added runs to buy Megill another half-game off (he was warming to start the 9th). You love going into an off day with a W. 3 of the next 4 series are against teams in the mediocre to bad range (even though the Rangers and M's are holding onto playoff relevance), so it'd sure be nice to get a little hot streak going. The Braves series will have some weird travel dynamics, but another off day next Monday means we should be plenty rested before another 16 games in a row, including the 7 vs. the Cubs.

Just missed from Chourio. If I'm not mistaken, we still haven't had a grand slam this year? That seems reasonably rare. Good, Brewers inning. Take the single tally and keep the line moving.

Regular season games are never as big as they feel, but this one feels pretty big. Season series on the Dodgers would be nice, for sure. So would ending this stretch 4 up on the Cubs. I think, at this point in the year, the difference between a 3-game lead and a 5-game one is massive. The former isn't the end of the world, but the latter would feel great given the schedule stretch we just went through and the way the Cubs have been playing. Even a loss today ends a tough stretch 9-8. Part of winning at the margins is grabbing wins even during bad runs of play, and the Brewers are good at that. Let's hope they get back to true, rolling form after hanging in there out west.

Definitely agree with this. Reminds me of the AI parable where you ask an agent to help you make as many paperclips as possible. If that's the only directive, the AI will, in theory, do things like kill all humans in order to end international law in order to extract as much metal as possible, in order to fulfill the directive. Sometimes, when you isolate one variable, you lose the whole bedrock of context that makes that variable meaningful in the first place. I think anyone who's watched the Cubs' offense can admit it's more talented than the Brewers'. That team can hit, but the Brewers lineup has certain advantage that revolve around patience and contact, rather than SLG.

Ditto on Uribe. Just really odd to see opportunities for his use go by the boards twice the last couple of days, even if there were certainly compelling reasons to keep him out both days.

Yeah, the "didn't reveal anything SERIOUS" caught my attention too. I mean, probably just a "long season" scenario. But not something you want to see. Again, the lack of off days and all the travel can't be good for lower body bumps and bruises. This Field of Dreams game is pretty fun as we wait for the Brewers. Too bad the Twins aren't putting on a better showing.

I certainly get the feeling. I feel like we've put away the division really early the last few years, though. In 2024 we did miss out on the bye and limped to the finish a bit. And in 2025 we missed out on 100 wins. But the last genuine collapse I remember was 2014. I think, if the Cubs do catch us, it'll be because their pitching stabilizes and their offense continues to mash. It'll be more about them, in other words. Still. I do think we'll find out how good this team really is in September. It's absolutely legit to question the offense and bullpen depth. I know we're right on line with our Pythagorean, but it does feel like we have some regression candidates (as well as some positive regression candidates). Edit: I guess you could argue 2022 was a collapse, though that team always felt deeply flawed.

I know the mood around here is dour (and rightfully so after blowing two late-inning leads in San Diego), but I do think this slide back to the pack is right in line with expectations during this stretch. It's really hard to play 17 straight games with two separate West Coast trips. So far, we're 7-6 during that stretch, which I think a lot of folks would have taken at the start. The Cubs have played well and cut our division lead in half, so credit to them for that. I still say this division is going to come down to our 7 September games against CHC. Their Sept. schedule is tougher than ours, so August is kind of a hang in there month. At the end of the day, I'd love to win this division (4 years in a row and 5 of 6 is dynastic, no matter the October results), but, as with last year, I'd prefer not to the play the Cubs in the playoffs. It's just too much fake narrative to pile on top of something already mostly random. If we do have to play them, I'd rather do it as the WC team, which I know is weird, but it just gives you less to lose going in. Every team in baseball needs to hit the reset button at least once during the year. Today's a good time to do that. 41 games to go, and we have the best record in the NL, tied for the most wins in MLB, a 3-game division lead, and virtual assurance of another year of playoff baseball. Big-picture, that's nothing to sneeze at. Hopefully, we can wash away the bad taste of SD and grab a few wins this weekend. I have a good feeling about the Cubs coming back to Earth, too. Go Crew.

This. And it cuts both ways. Cubs sweep the Dodgers and come back today and gain.....1 game. Go back to the end of last week, and it's even, since we took 2 of 3 in Anaheim while they dropped 2 of 3 to the Yanks. Division will most likely be decided by our 7 remaining games against the Cubs. Go 4-3, and they're really going to have to run it up. Even 3-4 is an uphill climb. If anyone is nervous, Cubs are +325ish to win the Central. About the only thing sports betting is good for is emotional insurance, so... there's that. As for today, good win. Twins have a night game in KC, so the Brewers should be better rested. Hopefully we can grab 2 of 3 and get the Royals hot against CHC.

Yikes, Pratt. That was a lazy miscue there. Needed that out.

It's possible teams evaluate prospects differently, isn't it? We're not talking about crude oil, where there's a price based on tons of daily transactions. People pay different prices because everyone has their own evaluation systems, their own scouts, and their own computer models.

Because they are right more than average. I bet they were wrong a lot. Because everyone is. The rates are just much higher on internet forums. The reality is, reputable publication miss all the time. Just like good hitters strike out all the time. This trade might be terrible! It would just be nice if the detractors would admit there's a reasonable chance it'll work out just fine.

This I completely get. Honestly? I don't think I would have done this deal. But I think the trade deadline is always a seller's market, and the Brewers are usually better sitting it out and dealing with the bad press. They never care about the press anyway. That said, I can see an argument for why May and Romero are valuable enough to warrant two very, very young OFers from a system chock full of them. Maybe the Brewers just think this is the highest those players will ever be valued. I guess we'll find out who's right by 2030.

That doesn't connect at all, though. Maybe the Brewers like May and Romero a lot more than Gausman. Maybe the Blue Jays valued what they got from the Cubs really highly. Maybe the Brewers are just not that high on Frias and Ragsdale. It's fine to THINK we gave up too much. But the certainty with which some folks have pronounced it is a big red flag that undercuts their take. I promise you, most big-league GMs are very fluent in uncertainty and very aware that the error bars around prospect evaluations are massive.

All very good points. The good argument against this trade is: "I think these guys have higher value, and the Brewers should have waited because, at the very least, they'd have been able to sell them for more at a later date." Or, "One of these guys is going to be in the top 3 Lara/Chourio/Payne/Adamczewski/Mitchell/Frelick/Lockridge/etc." Those arguments may end up being right on. Nobody has any idea what Frias and Ragsdale will do as big-leaguers. I'm not up in arms about this trade in any way. I think it seems reasonable. But I'll happily admit that I'm nervous we didn't get more for two really fun, young OFers. I'm just not sure how anyone can be so absolutely certain this is an overpay and compare it to crapping down one's leg or selling a luxury vehicle for cheap. All of that just feels like Internet forum venting. Which is fine. But then, like, don't pretend it's something else.

Nah, we'll just let the Porsche sit in the garage. The reality is, we have NO IDEA if this is "half price." The value of an asset is what you can get someone to pay for the asset. And we can index that to all kinds of different indicators, but I guarantee the Brewers weren't looking at a full price offer and decided to take the half price one. Maybe you think they should've been able to get more. Okay. Maybe you think they shouldn't have moved these guys at all. That's fine too. But let's not get all high and mighty with "value-based thinking" and then throw out a spurious argument by analogy. If the Brewers regret this trade, they'll do so in 2028 or 2029. Borrowing from theoretical future value is how these transactions work. The fact is, the Brewers valued these guys at Dustin May and JoJo Romero. They probably have a lot more information to base that on than we do, and the idea that they have other prospects they like more is probably part of the calculus. I would argue that your jump to call that line of thinking dumb is what's moving us away from "value-based thinking."

In the same way that 20-30 percent of American holidays are meant to sell greeting cards, the trade deadline is meant to sell column inches. The Brewers are always in damned either way position. Either they swing big and sell the prospects on a very uncertain bet, or they stand pat and get nationally (and locally) hammered for not doing something to get over the hump in October. It's a no-win situation. As others have said, 2/3 of our current OF is locked up on long-term MLB deals. Those guys is gonna play. Then, you've got two prospects ahead of them already in the system. Then, you've got 2 top 100 draft picks (okay, Jones was #102), and I haven't even counted Felick or Lockridge, both of whom the org seems to like. Plus, I think OFers are the easiest position to find and develop. Honestly, if May had one more year of control, I think people would be perfectly fine with this, which tells you how off-base the "worst trade ever" remarks are. It's probably a slight overpay. It stinks that it's to the Cardinals (though that org is a total and complete mess right now if you ask me). And yet, the Brewers got two needed arms and dealt of a position of great depth. This feels like a typical deadline deal to me. There's not a lot of value to be had in a sellers market. There's probably a 10 percent chance we really regret this, a 30 percent chance neither Frias or Ragsdale do anything at all, and a 60 percent chance it works out within range of even, probably with a wider swath of that giving the Cardinals a couple wins worth of future value. We overvalue our own prospects. You can look at it like we only got two rentals, or you can look at it like we got two MLB quality pitchers for two guys outside the organizational top 10. This is perfectly reasonable, if you ask me.

I think the core of this team is as promising as it's ever been and agree with a lot of this. Amazing that this run of baseball has been so good, and it still looks like the window is wide open and staying that way. Obviously, that's annoying to some folks. They are probably tired of hearing about a future that never seems to arrive. Maybe it won't. Baseball is weird. Honestly, I care more about having a fun March/April-September than I do any part of October, and it's not close (unless we're playing the Cubs or Cardinals). The one part of this I'd disagree with slightly is that 2027 doesn't feel lost at all to me. If I believed prediction markets had any value, I'd be all over the "will be baseball" next year bet. I think the odds of a full season are completely undervalued. The owners are going to win the PR war, and they are able to absorb the financial losses much easily than a whole lot of the union. Right or wrong (I'd lean toward the latter), it's going to be very, very hard for the union to hold any kind of anti-cap line. Add to that the fact that everyone knows the TV money is a sinking ship for most of the league, and I think you're going to see a deal. What do I know?

That AB shows the downside of Contreras. Up 2-0 against a team that's struggled to close out games, and he tries to hit a 3-run bomb with no one on base.

Kind of hard to believe how good this offense has been with Chourio, Yelich, and Contreras all having their struggles, often simultaneously.

Weird thing about Miz is that if you had shown me this kind of outing late last year, I would have been thrilled. He's been incredibly efficient (something he's done well throughout the season). If he can just pitch to contact a little bit, he becomes, basically, one of the best in baseball history (assuming health). He's done that today, but the risk is you give up the one big swing. Offense going to have to pick him up. They've been the issue today, even as Urena has been very good.

Tough offense day so far, some of it self-inflicted, but Hamilton and Turang both hit balls well that inning. Certainly could have been two extra-base hits.

Not too worried about the slight velocity decline from Miz. I imagine the heat has something to do with it, not to mention the idea that the team is being really careful. Almost wonder if today was approached with an eye toward throwing more breaking stuff and trying to back off on the full-energy fastballs. If Miz can get outs on secondary stuff, that's good. But he's got to throw the stuff to do it. Today seems as good a day as any to try.