KeithStone53151
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Everything posted by KeithStone53151
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That Chris Hook promotion on it's own is a bit surprising. First thing I see is, he's been in the organization for 11 years. Makes me wonder how many new ideas he'll be able to bring to the table. Then I looked back at timber rattlers from 2009-2011 and AA players during his tenure there. I feel like quite a few major leaguers made some serious improvements at the specific levels he was at. The seasons in 2015 from Hader, Tyler Wagner, Jorge Lopez, Suter, and even Jed Bradley. Freddy Peralta also seemed to turn a corner at AA in 2017. I know we have a fairly pitcher friendly park in AA, but the peripherals on all these guys was very good. It will certainly help the transition that he's so familiar with a majority of the arms. Chacin might be the only guy he hasn't worked with extensively, but Chacin doesn't really need coaching at this stage of his career. Overall, I like it. As for the others, stealing a guy on the pitching side from Cleveland seems smart. Stealing anybody from Houston also seems smart. So overall, I like the moves as much as I could...though it's tough to really have a strong opinion on these types of moves.
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That's a lot, Marlins might have to send something back in that case. Both those catchers rate higher than Nottingham as of now. Not a great prospect, just something. An upper levels bullpen arm, an 18-20 year old guy outside the top 30 but with some tools...something. Seems to be workable though.
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The more I think about this, this could actually be a bit of a clever play by the Marlins. On it's face, it seems stupid to limit the market in such a manner. But if NL East teams start exploring other options and making serious offers for FA like Grandal and Ramos, the Dodgers/Astros will have to either accelerate talks with the Marlins or quickly get involved on these FA. There are certainly more suitors for Realmuto outside the NL East than just the Dodgers/Astros, so I don't think this overly limits their market. My money is on the Dodgers and Verdugo being part of the return. I know that is extremely contradictory to all my statements on the type of talent the Marlins could get. Verdugo isn't quite the prospect that Robles, Soto, Acuna, and Hiura are, but he's still a better prospect than I anticipated they would get. I just think the Dodgers are going to get a bit desperate and try to really put themselves over the hump before their roster ages too much and they have to rebuild. Pretty much every impact player on that team besides Bellinger and Buehler will be a FA after 3 more seasons. Many including Turner, Kemp, Puig, Hernandez, Wood, and Pederson will be gone in the next 2 seasons. Add in the comments about the Dodgers planning to stay under the luxury tax for the next 4 seasons, Realmuto fits so perfectly in that window. And the Marlins I feel like could have interest in an OBP driven corner outfielder to pair with the boom/bust guys they got from us...plus I anticipate Verdugo being a step ahead of all other offers they've received.
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I assume then you also aren't interested in Ramos, as he is worse defensively... I suspect it will either be Realmuto or Nottingham pairing with Pina to open 2018, far more likely to be Nottingham than Pina...and I'm ok with that.
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They can insist on whatever nonsense they want. We all saw how that worked out with the Nationals and Braves. I'd bet the Marlins hold Realmuto, then for either injury or performance reasons...his value drops significantly by the deadline.
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Was just gonna make a long-winded post about why I wouldn't do this, but this is perfect. I'll sum up my thoughts by saying that it's true the Greinke is the type of pitcher that usually ages well. The problem is that he already has aged well, i.e., that it usually applies to being productive from roughly ages 32-35. To stay worth ~$15m per year would be more than just "aging well". It would be very unusual in the post-PED era. +1. Greinke could be good for a couple more years but you are seriously playing with fire for big dollars at this point in his career. The cliff could come at any point. Could be 35, could be 40. If peralta or woodruff starts bad, they'll be in aaa in may. If Greinke starts bad...see how the cubs handled chatwood. There's a price I'd be willing to pay for Greinke, but we have other and better options. I'd view that path as more of a fall back
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I don't want pitchers past their primes and paying them $30M to do it. Paying pitchers 35+ years or older is foolish for a team like the Brewers. I don't care how they compare against our staff's numbers in that instance. Find younger pitching that you can control. That is the key to our sustainable success. This move would allow our pitchers an extra year or 2 to develop into those TOR pitchers, instead of just throwing them out there for 180 innings and hoping for the best. Except that's kinda what you have to do. All players will do some developing at the MLB level. Hitters generally tend to adjust quicker and hit the ground running moreso than pitchers. I don't think more time in the minors would be overly helpful for Burnes/Woodruff. Peralta maybe, but he's also so effective at the MLB level that I don't know that he NEEDS time in milb to be an effective MLB arm.
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He would get $60mil easily in my opinion...possibly more. Even at that you are still looking at $12mil surplus value. That's no lottery tickets. I disagree but can understand your argument. We'll get a gauge on how other teams value him if he actually gets traded.
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Brewers Interested in Anibal Sanchez
KeithStone53151 replied to JDBrewCrew's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I feel like too much is being made of this report. We probably simply called to check price. We also probably called to check price on Harper and Machado. It could be as little as simple due diligence, it could also be more...but nothing that's been reported tells me it's anything more than due diligence. -
Brewers Interested in Anibal Sanchez
KeithStone53151 replied to JDBrewCrew's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
This feels like we called and checked in. I don't think there's much to see here yet other than it's a need in our price range and we've probably called to check price. -
Would he get $70 million on 3 years though? He's 35 and he's approaching 3000 innings on his arm. Velocity down to a career low sub-90 mph and that's pitching half his games in Arizona. That's a lot of reasons right there to simply not target him at all. I think pitchability and having 4 quality offerings will help him maintain success a bit longer, but velocity dip is certainly a risk. I don't recall any specific precedent over the last couple years of a guy at his age/quality signing any sort of deal. I don't think he's quite to the CC Sabathia 1 year at a time for $8-12 million stage yet, but he's much closer to that than the Arrieta/Darvish stage of $20 million per.
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Yelich did have that injury and missed 2-3 weeks early in the season. Maybe he was a bit slow coming back. I'm going to cop out and say he will probably fall somewhere between his first half and second half. I'm expecting a 900 OPS guy...300/375/525 type hitter with 30 dingers next year. Funny how irritated I was with this trade at the time, thinking we gave up way too much. Knowing what I know now, I would have given up twice as much.
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I think it would have to get down at least to 3/48 with a couple mediocre prospects thrown in to be worthwhile to us. Add another high end pitcher to the list of those being shopped. Have to assume Stearns is calling on all of them. Greinke strikes me as the type of pitcher that will age reasonably well. Plus command and a true 4 pitch guy. I personally would be more inclined to target more of an impact guy than Greinke. Guys like Paxton/Degrom/Kluber will probably all provide higher quality innings than Greinke over the next 2 years(2 because Degrom/Paxton would be 2 year guys).
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I couldn't disagree more on Hiura. All signs point to him being ready to be an impact bat when called upon next year. He's not similar to a Brinson/Baez type profile where he has holes in his swing that MLB pitchers can exploit early on. He's a complete hitter and his bat has been ready to be an impact bat probably since draft day. There are probably at least a dozen elite hitting prospects that have come up and been impact bats immediately just in the last couple years. Bellinger, Judge, Lindor, Bryant, Acuna, Albies, etc...I could probably list 5 or 6 more pretty easily. The guy Hiura's bat is consistently compared to...Braun...had a 1004 OPS his rookie season. I'm anticipating Hiura being an 800+ ops guy from the day he walks onto an mlb diamond.
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I like it, cool design. Though they probably should change the M to an L for the next 3-4 years.
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It has been extremely thoroughly outlined in the Realmuto thread that no team is giving up an elite prospect for Realmuto, and Hiura falls in that category. So the scenario of Hiura/Pina vs Whit/Realmuto isn't a very realistic scenario. I'd be a bit more receptive to Hiura/5th starter vs Whit/Degrom, but I don't really like Whit as a player beyond a year or two. Humans presented some very good evidence regarding his batted ball profile that speaks volumes to how good Whit will be going forward, especially as he loses speed with age.
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Thanks for sharing, I find it interesting to see how people voted in close races. For instance, the AL CY young...I find TB writers voting a bit suspect. Having Verlander 3rd and 4th. Bruce Levine is officially too stupid to be allowed to vote. LA writers generally seemed to have an axe to grind against CC, especially considering how well he managed the Brewers against them in the playoffs. The cases of weird voting were few and far between though, most of these writers had similar and very reasonable/defendable ballot choices.
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Probably the yahoo that gave Maddon a 1st place vote...this reeks of Cub-caliber stupidity.
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Right, they haven't been able to get a Robles, Acuna, Soto, etc over the last year. All Realmuto's value has done over the last year has gone down(not significantly, but less and more expensive team control along with a year older). There's no reason a team would all of a sudden offer them that type of prospect when it hasn't happened for a year. There's plenty of information available as to what has actually happened and previous trades for catchers, that speculating on Miami getting an elite prospect in return for Realmuto is a waste of time and simply not going to happen. Writer after writer projects an elite prospect going to the Marlins, I just don't see it happening.
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Corey Kluber available?
KeithStone53151 replied to adambr2's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
He also traded them as all were rule 5 eligible if I remember correctly, and 3 for sure would have been snagged in rule 5. All was part of our 40 man crunch. As for the "his guys" thing, I believe Stearns also orchestrated the deal that brought in Isan Diaz. I think the 40 man piece is moreso the driving factor in all the cases of Stearns trading guys from the Melvin era, it just so happens that Melvin guys are 40 man eligible before Stearns guys. And I also doubt that Stearns is trading Melvin guys just to trade them, Stearns and co clearly value players differently than much of the league...and might be polar opposite to how Melvin and co valued players. So naturally he'd be more inclined to trade players that he doesn't value as highly. -
It's going to be really fun when these yahoos vote for Baez for MVP. I believe CY Youngs announced tonight and MVP tomorrow. Degrom looks like a no brainer in the NL unless W/L gets too much weight. Snell probably get the AL award, though there's a chance Verlander sneaks in. MVP's should be Yelich and Mookie, though I'm expecting Mookie and Baez.
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Was he the same reporter that didn't vote for Counsell at all? Just curious if that cost Counsell the award, if that reporter didn't even vote for CC as 2nd or 3rd? I find that to be very likely, but those few points didn't swing the vote. I think I saw Snitker got 116 points and CC got 99. Adding a few points to CC would get him to 102 or 104, closer but not enough.
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Corey Kluber available?
KeithStone53151 replied to adambr2's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I always find it interesting trying to value a very good player on an expensive contract in a trade. There is definitely excess value here, but you're also trading for a 33 year old SP which carries some risk of performance drop off. I think a team will either pay a premium for him, or Kluber won't be traded. There are actually a surprising number of teams shopping around elite SP right now. How often are Degrom, Thor, Paxton, Kluber caliber arms available in trade? At the very least, they are getting dangled in hopes of an overpay. -
So then which managers in game decision making were manager of the year worthy in comparison since you are sure multiple ones were better? Roberts and Bochy jump out at me right away. I don't scrutizine the decision making of other managers quite like I do for CC but I don't think CC is the best game day manager in the NL.
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Without looking at results, i don't think CCs in game decision making were manager of the year worthy. Probably not top 3. I think his value comes from everything leading up to the game and big picture strategy(a lot of which is probably more stearns than cc). The club house presence with him has always been excellent, and guys have improved individually quite a bit under his tenure. I also think CC will learn from mistakes this season and get better. So i guess all that said, im ok with him not getting the award as i don't think he's the best manager. But based on the metrics all the writers are using, cc probably should have won the award.