KeithStone53151
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Everything posted by KeithStone53151
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This guy was pretty good in AAA if I remember right.
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Examples include JA Happ, Lance Lynn, and Sonny Gray of what might be similar trades that just happened the last year or two...that netted very solid returns. You could look at those guys as an incremental upgrade, or as a flip candidate as noted.
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Puk and Luzardo for Realmuto, LOL. This yahoo lost all credibility with that offer. I can’t even tell which side of that deal you think is laugh out loud funny? He also says it would require a third piece as well. Kiley is one of the more credible baseball talent evaluators currently writing in the public sphere, not really a “yahoo” in my opinion. Luzardo and Puk both have wicked stuff and both project as frontline starters. You could argue both have higher ceilings than any of our big 3 young arms, and they are in AAA so their floor is pretty high as well at this point. I don't think Realmuto could land those 2 arms. I'll admit the Puk TJ situation complicates the values a bit, but if he was healthy...it wouldn't be close. A TJ situation is tricky because the team with the player will probably value him as if healthy, and if they dont...the other team will wonder what's going wrong in his rehab. One of those two and a couple other significant prospects is probably closer to a fair offer.
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Also they could be on the upswing in 2020 or 2021, and Davies/Anderson would still be around. Might have to try and extend them at that point but again...incremental increases. And I'll agree with tmwiese, they might not want to incrementally increase and might prefer to keep payroll at rock bottom and just be bad while raking in TV revenue and revenue sharing.
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Warriors top 3 players played 90 minutes. Bucks played 81. Yeah Curry was out but they were getting steamrolled when Curry played too. Green being out was pretty big though. I love how we can get our top guys rest though. Last year Giannis was tied for 2nd and Middleton was tied for 6th in most minutes played per game. This year Giannis is tied for 58th and Middleton is 66th. Part of that is we're just blowing out teams and that probably won't continue at the pace it has so far but having the ability to just take teams out at a pace that wouldn't have been possible last year and allowing our top players to rest is huge for the close games where we'll actually need them for 36-40 minutes. Maybe, maybe not. It's not like we are facing the Cleveland Browns of the NBA over and over again. We've beaten good teams by substantial margins. Maybe the Bucks are just that good this year. Lopez seems to have really taken this team to another level.
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Heyman is basically a hype man for Boras clients, but if almost every team has checked in on Marwin Gonzalez that probably means the Brewers will not be signing him. I like him at the 3/21 type deal that Escobar signed, but at the 3/30+ predictions I've seen I would have no interest. This guy might approach Zobrist territory or close to it. If he's a Boras client, I'm sure he's eyeing that number and has the asking price north of it. I don't think he'll get it, but he should get close.
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Puk and Luzardo for Realmuto, LOL. This yahoo lost all credibility with that offer.
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That's risky, but it could be awesome.
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If the Marlins were going to get a top 15 prospect, it would have happened last year or at the deadline...swapping out Hiura with Peralta/Woodruff makes more sense based on the Marlins needs, our needs, previously reported offers, precedent from the lucroy trade...etc etc etc.
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No one want to pay for Davies when they have no intention of contending despite his value being higher than say a Dubon or a Nottingham. I’m actually a big Davies fan so I wouldn’t trade him at such a low point anyhow. Again, you do need players on the 25 man roster. You aren't going to go from 60 wins to 90 wins in one season. You can't try to time 12 prospect callups all at once and go from trash to contender overnight, it doesn't work that way. Incremental build up. And Davies is young with team control, and can help stabilize their rotation a bit for a few years. Again, targeting Davies is literally no different than us targeting Shaw during a rebuild. I pretty clearly outlined why your comment didn't make sense before you even typed it out...
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Hiura isn't going anywhere, I also would think the Marlins would be more interested in pitching than 2 OF and a 2b. Regardless, this package is a touch steep. Switch Hiura with Peralta/Woodruff and it makes a bit more sense.
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Right, I don't think anybody is trying to say Davies should headline a package for Realmuto. But would Davies have more value than Ponce as a 3rd or 4th piece? Without question. Davies probably could be a legit 2nd/3rd piece depending on the 1st piece. Look no further than us trading Thornburg for Shaw + Dubon + Pennington. Rebuilding, but took back a 25 year old at a position of need with upside. Davies also happens to be 25...
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I'm not surprised. What team couldn't use a guy like him? I suspect he winds up in the NL somewhere, as he'll be better utilized by a good NL manager.
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Honestly Davies feels like a glove like fit for them. Young, team control, limited upside but high floor, and there's probably some level of chance he could be extended for an extra year or two despite being a Boras client. And as you noted, flyball pitcher in a tough HR park. Anderson is similar, but more expensive and older. So a bit more risk with him.
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I honestly think it would be wise for the Marlins to deal with us for MLB pieces, or another team that has pieces available. I don't believe in this theory that any good player you have while rebuilding should automatically be traded, and try to time it so 12 prospects all hit the majors at once and you go from bad to good overnight. It just doesn't work that way. You have to incrementally increase your talent level. At the lowest point of our rebuild, we traded for Shaw and signed Thames. At the lowest point of the Astros rebuild, they signed Altuve to a big extension. Rizzo was in Chicago for 4 years before the team was any good. Acquiring controllable young talent doesn't exclusively mean prospects. You can look for solid guys like Shaw in trades, that still have a lot of team control. Specific to the Marlins, they seem to lack pitching. Targeting someone like Anderson or Davies from us would be incredibly smart. Even if it isn't in a Realmuto deal, adding a controllable young starter would be a prudent move. It appears obvious that some of our current core SP will be pushed out of our rotation by some means to clear space for a couple of the big 3 young SP and Nelson(knock on wood 1,000 times).
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Seems like a fringe guy. Given the lack of regard many here have for Zach Davies (who's stuff is better), I don't see this guy with his stuff being a prospect most would embrace. Agreed. Plus command and fringy stuff simply doesn't cut it at the MLB level.
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A lot of baseball people/writers seem concerned about his size. Prince Fielder posted his last all-star caliber season at age 28. After that, he never was over 2 WAR. Pablo Sandoval was never overly good, but he certainly seemed to dive down from career numbers at age 28. That could be at least in part related to his move to Boston, and contract security leading him to care less and eat more. I struggle using guys that played in the 2000s as comps because they could very well be juicers. Ortiz, Howard, Migeul Cabrera, Carlos Lee...no proof but I'd rather avoid them as comps, especially Ortiz. Point being though, it will be pretty critical for Jr's longevity to watch his weight. On a side regarding weight, some of those drastic tail-offs make you wonder if we should look to trade Aguilar sooner than later before his value plummets.
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1. Hiura 2. Brown 3. Turang 4. Ray 5. Dubon 6. Carlos Rodriguez 7. Lutz 8. Nottingham 9. Erceg 10. Braden Webb 11. Ashby 12. Segovia 13. Henry 14. Gray 15. Feliciano 16. Supak 17. Bello 18. Andrews 19. Ernesto 20. QTC 21. Jarvis 22. Diplan 23. Lemons 24. Gatewood 25. Ward 26. Devin Williams 27. Stokes 28. Herrera 29. Grisham 30. Mcclanahan 31. Houser If anyone is out of the org or ineligible, just slide the list up. I also may edit myself later.
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I also don't think the Braves would include Riley as they seem to really like him, so the position player is probably one of their OF prospects.
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My guess if true, is similar to Peralta/Woodruff + Nottingham...but I assume the position player would be better. Maybe it's more like Peralta + Ray. If the pitching prospect is Soroka or Wright, Peralta/Woodruff probably doesn't quite match up on the pitching side. If it's Anderson, Toussaint, or Gohara...our guys would probably be favorable. Again, all based on the report being true...which is no guarantee.
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Have any of the non-AMEX folks gotten their refunds yet? My rep said the extra world series tickets refund was processed 11/1.
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Wow, you make it seem like they might be in a worse situation than the Cubs will find themselves in 2020.
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So Woodruff has tremendous value around MLB now because of 42 innings in 2018? I highly doubt GM's work that way. Those 42 innings. His previous 2+ years of excellent results in milb. Throwing a 97-99 mph fastball with improving offspeed offerings. Solid command of all 3 pitches. The list goes on...
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So those offering Hiura + a big 3 arm + anything is offering a comparable package for Realmuto as what the Red Sox gave up for Sale. Sale had a 3/40 contract at the time of trade. Their values aren't even remotely close. Using WAR, Sale was a 5.3 WAR pitcher for 5 seasons prior to trade and moved at age 27. Realmuto is a 3.3 WAR player over the last 4 years or 4.0 over the last 2. And again, pitching is king. The catcher position is kinda like rb position on football considering the beating these guys take on a daily basis. No sense in trying to reinvent the wheel. You can look at the Lucroy deal, and previously rejected offers by other teams for Realmuto to gauge what he'll go for. Figure something between a top 10-15 prospect(which was rejected by multiple teams) and a 40-60 range upside prospect and an older organizational AAAA type(lucroy deal...which I'm ignoring Ortiz as he probably offsets JJ in that deal).
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The Marlins are not ready to compete so you could make the argument that someone in AA has more value than someone that needs to be in the majors now. Does anyone really think Woodruff would get a top 25 and a top 75 prospect right now? Those rankings were dated at the time and brinson was coming off injury and struggled significantly at aa prior to the trade. His value was not that of a top 25 at the time, not even close.