KeithStone53151

Who is the second MLB ready Starting Pitcher? Woodruff has only succeeded out of the bullpen. Well I didn't say that did I? I said ready, as in he's here ready to go at the MLB, not in AA with the who knows if he ever even makes the bigs issue. Moreover, Woodruff has successfully started several games for us in 2017 in a playoff race. Go find any trades that are comparable to giving up Huira +Peralta + Woodruff(and some are also including Ray). I strongly doubt you can find one anywhere close to that package. That's the type of package you see for Chris sale on a super team friendly deal with 4 years of control. Compare that to the sale return, it's pretty close

Who is the second MLB ready Starting Pitcher? Woodruff has only succeeded out of the bullpen. The pitcher we saw from August- October succeeded in multiple 3-5 inning stints and would have been just fine in the rotation. He'll be in the rotation in 2019 if not traded. You saw the stuff and the dominance for 3 straight months.

Post #599. I made that suggestion. No sense in trying to reinvent the wheel. Realmuto is probably within 0.5 WAR in either direction of what Lucroy was worth at the time of trade. Including all factors, I'd say Lucroy was worth maybe 70-80% of what Realmuto is currently worth. You can also look again at the Braves/Nationals scoffing at sending a single top 15 prospect to the Marlins for Realmuto when his value was even higher a year ago. Realmuto's value is going to fall somewhere between there.

Paxton is definitely a check in and see guy. His cost might be in the Degrom range of Hiura + one of the big three young arms + extras...in which case I wouldn't be interested. Pitching is king though, it wouldn't shock me to see a team give up a package close to that for him...if he gets moved at all.

Are you applying any sort of precedent or critical thinking to your trade offer? That should be in blue because the answer is obvious... Peralta/Woodruff has equal or more value to the entire Lucroy return. And i've explained how Lucroy is probably the closest comparison we have to work from. Nottingham and the MLB piece would have significant value. Thames probably wouldn't be the guy, it would probably be one of the other 3 or maybe a young bullpen piece like Williams/Houser...largely dependent on what the Marlins want. Sometimes teams get desperate and overpay. Look no further than pretty much any significant trade the cubs have made over the last 3-4 years. If that happens, we lose and move on. I think if this offer doesn't get Realmuto, it's in the top 2 or 3 offers and would only lose because someone really blows the Marlins away with an offer.

So Peralta isn't a finished product at age 22, therefore he has warts? And that version of Woodruff we saw from August-October would have had success either starting or relieving. If he carries that into 2019, he'll be a very good starter. And generally speaking, there are maybe 5 prospects in baseball that don't have warts. Eloy Jimenez and Kyle Tucker are poor outfield defenders. Jesus Luzardo has command issues. Jo Adell strikes out too much. Mackenzie Gore's 3rd and 4th pitches aren't MLB caliber offerings yet. Should their respective organizations jump to trade them because they have warts? It honestly baffles me that so many people are so quick to want to trade these arms we've acquired...and don't remember how dire our minor league pitching situation has been year after year after year up until 2-3 years ago...when Hader/Burnes/Woodruff showed up. We finally start developing arms and everyone wants to quick trade them. It makes no sense. Realmuto is an excellent player at a position where there aren't many available. He is going to command a lot of assets in a trade. The four guys I proposed all had good years last year and have value. I feel it would be a good time to sell high on them just like we did last year for Yelich. I have a lot of faith in Burnes and Brown to be impact pitchers in the near future. It baffles me that posters don't realize that you can't just throw lopsided trade proposals out there like they would be accepted. The leap from AAA to MLB is the biggest leap, for obvious reasons. I don't think anybody has proposed some sort of throw away offer, but all of Hiura, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff would probably be top 50 prospects if they were eligible considering their MLB success. Hiura will likely come in somewhere in the early teens when new lists come out. Last year when Realmuto had more value, the Nationals scoffed at the Robles/Soto asking price...and the Braves scoffed at giving up Acuna. What makes you think someone will offer a comparable prospect now, as Realmuto's value has gone down? There is no history of a team giving up a massive prospect haul for a catcher. The best haul I can remember is the Lucroy trade...which included Brinson, Ortiz, and Cordell. That trade included Jeffress though, it's probably safe to assume Ortiz for Jeffress and Lucroy for Brinson/Cordell. Brinson was in the 50s or 60s at this point and was coming off injury and struggling in AA. Cordell was an older prospect having a solid, unspectacular season in AA. Maybe Ray and Erceg is the closest comparable we have. Ray isn't what Brinson was, but there's a pretty big gap between the 3 pitchers and hiura to the rest of our prospects. Maybe you have to add a 3rd small piece to equal out the value but it's close. Realmuto obviously has a bit more value than Lucroy. Worse contract, slightly more team control, probably a slightly worse player overall but it's close. The market is also a bit different with less catching available. All those factors don't add up to Realmuto being worth 2 guys that would never have been included in the Lucroy trade. It's honestly not even close. My trade for Realmuto would probably include Peralta/Woodruff+, but I would also want a bullpen arm or some other less valuable piece back as well. Could ask about Dietrich or Steckenrider, include one of them with Realmuto for Peralta/Woodruff + Nottingham + Davies or Anderson or Thames or Santana. Something like that which includes an MLB piece, I'm sure they'd have some interest in an MLB piece as you can't field a full team of prospects...would need to ask about which one.

The majority of offers have included Hiura, Peralta, and Nottingham...along with a 4th piece of varying value. So he's not the centerpiece in the majority of offers.

So Peralta isn't a finished product at age 22, therefore he has warts? And that version of Woodruff we saw from August-October would have had success either starting or relieving. If he carries that into 2019, he'll be a very good starter. And generally speaking, there are maybe 5 prospects in baseball that don't have warts. Eloy Jimenez and Kyle Tucker are poor outfield defenders. Jesus Luzardo has command issues. Jo Adell strikes out too much. Mackenzie Gore's 3rd and 4th pitches aren't MLB caliber offerings yet. Should their respective organizations jump to trade them because they have warts? It honestly baffles me that so many people are so quick to want to trade these arms we've acquired...and don't remember how dire our minor league pitching situation has been year after year after year up until 2-3 years ago...when Hader/Burnes/Woodruff showed up. We finally start developing arms and everyone wants to quick trade them. It makes no sense.

All of those guys have warts and the bidding will be pretty strong I think. I doubt that package gets it done to be honest. Which of Hiura, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff have "warts"? Ray has contact issues that I'd consider a wart, but the other 4...now you're just making stuff up.

Zunino is basically Chris Carter at the catcher spot. I don't mind it as much considering the position, and assuming he is a good defender. I wouldn't make him a priority and wouldn't spend a ton on him. I also don't think Zunino really fits the mold of player Stearns has targeted in his tenure.

Paxton has to be the target. Could also look at Dee Gordon to play 2b and shift to 4th OF when Hiura comes up, this is assuming the Mariners are willing to eat a chunk of the contract of course..

Do you all remember all the years where guys like Wily Peralta, Tyler Thornburg, Taylor Jungmann, Johnny Hellweg, etc were the elite arms in our system? I don't know that we've ever had such a collection of young, impact arms in the system. Compare Hader/Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta/Brown to other systems under 25 arms. Very few teams can even touch this collection of arms. Young impact arms are the most rare commodity in baseball, and we have 5 good ones. Having a guy like that keeps you from trying to get lucky by spending $39 million on Chatwood...or paying $100+ million for a high end pitcher that is past his prime. We should not even consider trading any 2 of those guys unless it's for Degrom. I'll agree with tmwiese that we should be trying to get value from someone like Anderson, Guerra, Davies, etc in any trade with the Marlins and avoid giving up too much value in young, impact talents. If the Marlins want the moon, they can wait and watch as nobody else bites and Realmuto's value wittles away to a comp pick while they rebuild.

So they are going to play the game scared, and end up keeping Realmuto for too long and getting far less in return. That's their choice I guess. I just don't see the haul coming that they are seemingly expecting.

I'm not sure item 4 is very fair, at least using Marwin Gonzalez. His versatility is going to be a huge factor in his contract. If he was a 2b only, yeah then he might be comparable to Schoop. But he's basically a better version of Perez in every way, and a switch hitter. I don't think we keep Schoop specifically because of Hiura and because Schoop lacks positional flexibility. Let's say Schoop posts a 850 OPS or better through mid-June, that's great and all but Hiura gets stuck in AAA. Let's say Schoop posts a 650 OPS or worse through mid-June, Hiura likely takes the job and you have a 2b only wasting roster space...or you cut him and eat a 10 million loss...but you definitely have a 2b that cost you wins. Anything between that leads to a very difficult decision. If he's low-700s(probably the most likely outcome), it's going to be tough to justify benching him when Hiura comes up because low 700s isn't terrible. Or Hiura comes up and splits time and doesn't get a true chance to prove himself. Or Hiura doesn't come up at all and we don't have the best lineup out there in the 2nd half over service time concerns. The 850 or better OPS outcome isn't a BAD outcome, but it certainly isn't ideal and is very unlikely. Far more likely is the other 2 scenarios which would be bad and inefficient outcomes.

I've been strongly against some of these offers, but I guess it's sorta fair to say maybe that's what it takes to get him... but then if it does we should run far far away. This team is a World Series contender for the next 3-4 years max. Some of those prospects may be contributors, but many won't. Can't hug 'em when a significant upgrade is on the table. Normally I'd agree with that, but most are talking about trading 2 of hiura, burnes, peralta, woodruff. 3 of those 4 are already contributing and hiura is highly likely to hit the majors in 2019. We aren't talking about high end prospects in high a that are 2 years out, but contributors right now. Heck burnes might provide similar value over the next 2 seasons to what realmuto will provide, and that's just one guy and we'll still have 4 more years of control.

I've been strongly against some of these offers, but I guess it's sorta fair to say maybe that's what it takes to get him... but then if it does we should run far far away.

The Packers did look like a very good team against the 2 best teams in football on the road the last 2 weeks. We were arguably a couple key turnovers away from winning both games. Winning against the Patriots is a bit more up for debate, but I think our odds of winning that Rams game were very high had Montgomery not gone against the coaches wishes and run the ball out of the end zone. Considering we just faced the best 2 teams in football, level of competition only goes down from here for the rest of the season. We probably need to win 6-7 of our last 8 games to make the playoffs, not impossible. I also believe this team only gets better as the season goes on...assuming we get back to decent health with some key guys on defense. We play so many young players, and they are only going to improve as they get comfortable in the system and get more reps in game action. The Rodgers-MVS connection will also hopefully improve. That guy looks at worst like an excellent deep threat and at best like AJ Green lite. Also the biggest factor, Rodgers is looking better and better on that knee as he distances himself from the injury.

While I agree, didn't Yelich hit better when being more aggressive earlier in the count? Yes and it was on purpose. The theory is that pitchers are more likely to throw in the zone early in the count. Rather than wait for the pitcher's "out" pitch you attack early. It can be frustrating to see guys ground out on the first or second pitch but obviously can't quibble with Yelich's results. And that's a sound theory...that Yelich did feast off of. You have to be selective and look for your pitch though, especially if a pitcher is struggling with command. You shouldn't be swinging at a breaking pitch in the dirt of a letter high fastball if the guy in front of you walked on 4 or 5 pitches. Hitting coach is kinda whatever. I would think the Cubs players get the most blame for lack of results, followed by the hitting coach, with the assistant hitting coach getting little to no blame. If CC likes his philosophy and approach, fine sign him. It's probably good for hitters to get a fresh perspective every so often rather than stick with the same guy year after year.

How many games in a row do we need to be on the bad side of really questionable calls before you wonder whether it's an intentional pattern? Whatever the reason, we are getting screwed. Against the Vikings we had a guaranteed win had they not called the nonsense roughing the passer penalty. There's no debate, it was a done deal. No penalty equals kneel downs. We actually should have lost that game after the refs basically teed it up for them. Fortunately their kicker was trash. Every week except against the Rams, we've had far more questionable calls go against us than for us. The "happens every week stuff" is when Bahktiara gets called for a hold that is questionable, but then Jaire Alexander gets away with being super handsy and legit holding on a WR. That's every week stuff that happens to every team in all directions and I won't really bat an eye at. It's the critical calls that keep consistently going against us. The roughing the punter on 4th and a million, the roughing the passer to keep the game from being over. The other roughing the passer penalties that were clearly not roughing penalties. I was honestly surprised they reversed the TD at the goalline yesterday. At some point, you have to actually call the game correctly or it's too obvious you are tilting the odds. Plus, you have to figure with 2 more tries, that the Patriots could punch it in.

I take this as more of a fun exercise than anything realistic. The odds of Yelich getting traded are about the odds of David Stearns winning a batting title next year. That said, I can't imagine even considering moving him unless we are getting Vlad. He is so far ahead of every other prospect in baseball, he has future MVP written all over him. I would probably also consider Jimenez if other good secondary pieces were coming over. If it was Yelich for vlad, we would likely have very few secondary pieces coming. Probably a couple guys somewhere in their top 30, but probably only one other back end of their top 10 guys. If it was Jimenez, add in Cease, Dunning and someone interesting in the back end of their top 30. It is quite amazing how much his value has gone up with his ridiculous 2nd half of 2018. This might be a more serious conversation in 2020, but right now it isn't a real conversation...but still fun.

The Marlins can insist on whatever they want, that's the scenario that led to them not trading him yet. The Nationals weren't willing to give up Robles or Soto at the deadline or last year. What has changed that a team would all of a sudden be willing to give up that caliber of a prospect? I would be surprised if the Brewers offered either of Hiura or Burnes. You say you don't like the comparisons to the yelich trade, but yet you outline the primary reasons that yelich had more value than realmuto does now. The extra team control at a very team friendly cost, and improperly valuing the catcher position...which is scarce but much more prone to injury. And on top of that, you stick to the package others propose which is much more value than the Brewers gave up for Yelich. It makes no sense. It sounded like no other team really came close to us in trading for yelich. I get that Realmuto will be different, I just can't see a team offering up a similar package to what we gave up for Yelich. If they were willing, it would have happened last offseason or at the deadline. Offers aren't going to increase after a very average 2nd half and losing that extra half year of team control.

Or Jermaine Whitehead actually being a valuable player, and not the worthless scrub that he actually is. Every little subtle excuse to tilt the odds in the Patriots favor. I can't figure out another way to explain ejecting someone for something that happens regularly and literally never ever ever ever ever ever ever results in an ejection. Add in the roughing the punter penalty that definitely should have been the 5 yard and not the 15 yard variety. I'm sure there was other nonsense that I don't remember off the top of my head. The refs have generally been out to get the Packers all year. Last week against the Rams was the only game all season I don't recall the refs completely screwing us over with a well-timed terrible call...but also that game the refs might as well have left their flags in the locker room as it was basically anything goes all game(which I'm not complaining about, rather have that than let the refs determine the outcome of games).

Brinson prior to the trade had a 60 FV from Fangraphs & ranked #16 on their top 100 vs Hiura who is currently at 55 FV & ranked #22 on their prospect board. Coming into the season Burnes was ranked between #69-80, Woodruff was on one list at #61 & missed the top 100 on the other two while Peralta has never made a top 100. Of course all three have had success at the MLB level so their value has gone up since prospect season, which is why I believe their individual values are comparable to the same general range as Harrison & Diaz combined at the time they were dealt. I agree that Brinson/Harrison doesn't add up to Hiura/Burnes. I'm saying that Brinson/Harrison/Diaz is about the same ballpark in value as Hiura/one of Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff. I personally think Burnes is more valuable at this point than Hiura. Not a knock on Hiura, what Burnes has done at the MLB level though skyrockets his value. And if fangraphs puts their value as similar, they are just dumb. Yelich has been the better player at literally every stop and had 5 years of team control at the time of trade versus 2. Also while good prospects, Brinson and Harrison are very flawed prospects with massive upside but significant risk of actually sticking in the majors with the swing and miss issues. Hiura and any of those pitchers have a much higher floor than any of those guys with only slightly lower ceilings. All 4 of those guys might have more value at this point than Brinson. Burnes and Hiura for sure, Peralta and Woodruff are close. And all 4 are way ahead of Harrison/Diaz. Young, controllable, impact SP is the best value in baseball.

He really is making a mess of the payroll, and I fully expect him to bolt again rather than cleanup his own mess. He'll be the GM or president of baseball ops for the Angels, Giants, or Mets in 2021.

Regarding the ejection, I wouldn't mind it as much if it was even remotely consistent. There were probably 10 instances of that happening yesterday, and 1 ejection. There were probably over 100 similar instances of that happening this season, and 1 ejection. As soon as that happened, this felt like one of those games where Vegas needed the Patriots to cover so the refs started making stuff up.