KeithStone53151

Sure seems that way, the guy I'm the most shocked by is Moustakas. 38 HR year and almost nobody has interest, reportedly anyway. I think some rebuilding teams will pick up some of the lower tier outfielders hoping to flip later. I also think with 2 SP signing today, I get the impression teams want to get their SP squared away before spring training games start. I could see Cobb/Lynn signing very soon. I'm sticking to my Arrieta doesn't sign until May or June prediction.

Apparently Cashner can earn up to $5m in incentives each year. He also gets award bonuses...$1.5 million if he wins the Cy Young. Might as well make it $100 million as it isn't happening. The incentives protect the Orioles in case of injury, but if he starts and pitches the full year both years...this probably turns into a 2/26 deal pretty quick. I would make $13 million the new floor for Cobb.

With this and Cashner signing happening today, I feel like teams/SP free agents want deals done before spring training games start. I could see both Lynn and Cobb signing soon. Arrieta/Boras and their delusional asking prices will probably sit out until June, that's my prediction anyway.

You'd have someone like Broxton getting a decent amount of ABs vs. the LHP or some cheap FA or Perez. Depending on Phillips' defense or ability to hit against LHP, maybe he'll eventually see a lot of LHP, but for now, they'll have someone to take some LHP ABs away from him. We can only have so many guys on the roster, so I think it will be Perez and not Broxton getting those AB against LH pitching in this scenario. It's incredibly difficult to nail down the final 2-3 spots with so much of the offseason left to happen. Santana/Broxton/Phillips/Thames/Aguilar/Perez/villar all could be traded, and we could still add 2b help. Pitching I think is more or less figured out actually. We more than likely have one more addition coming to the rotation, and there will be a pretty heated battle for the last starting spot and last 1-2 bullpen spots.

There is also a vesting option for 2020. I'll be curious to see that. I think this pretty much sets the low end of the market. Cobb and co will all get more than 2 years and more than $8 million per. That was probably obvious, I still think Cobb gets a 4/52 or 4/56 type deal. Lynn probably gets 4/44.

Couldn't agree more, I'd slam on the brakes hard on Salazar at this point. I might consider Santana for him plus some significant value...but he loses a lot of value for me with the injury.

Sidestepped the remaining big 3 to go to the next tier, not surprising. They might need 1 more starter yet.

Teams are privately held and don't require published financials. Forbes has made estimates of team revenues, I've also seen that player salaries have steadily averaged 56% across all teams. I doubt anyone has any specific numbers on other expenses though. I for one would be extremely interested in seeing what team financials look like. This seems to be a lot of the problem when it comes to collective bargaining in most businesses. I've always been suspicious of claims of poverty when they refuse to opens their books during negotiations. If they really weren't making much money one would think they'd be the ones who want to open them books. I wouldn't be overly surprised for clubs to open the books to specific PA people to prove their point(unless of course they are raking in dough in which case they won't show it)...but no way will the general public ever get their hands on baseball team financials.

If we add Cobb, we will probably be slightly behind the Cubs at every notch. Their SP best to worst is probably Darvish, Quintana, Hendricks, Lester, Chatwood(you can swap lester/hendricks if you want). Ours with Cobb would probably be Anderson, Cobb, Davies, Woodruff, Chacin(you can swap Cobb/Anderson or Woodruff/Chacin). I think it's pretty clear that they are at least slightly better at most rungs. Anderson/Cobb probably have the upside to compete with Darvish/Quintana if Anderson's mechanical adjustments/velocity from last year return, and Cobb if he finds that split changeup. Most likely outcome is Cubs guys are better. Davies posted a 2.8 ERA in the 2nd half last year, I would argue he's probably about the equivalent of Hendricks...with Hendricks having significantly more risk becuse if he loses any more velocity he won't be a capable pitcher. This is MLB level and he was mid 80s last year, if he's low 80s he's gonna get shelled I don't care how good his command is...heck he might if he's mid 80s again. Lester/Woodruff is pure upside vs downside, Lester projects much better if he doesnt regress. Woodruff projects much worse but could improve...still advantage Cubs. The 5s are probably a wash, who cares really. Cubs bullpen is much deeper to a point, but we have the best 2 pitchers of our combined bullpens(Knebel/Hader) but they are probably equal or better at every rung past the top 2. Also I get they have 7-8 very solid bullpen pitchers, but if one gets hurt what do they do? Bring up a prospect? LOL. I suppose there will probably be mediocre free agents available, if they were smart they'd try to find some decent bullpen depth options that will accept AAA assignments. One general note on pitching is that the Brewers will have a significantly improved outfield defense this year. Cain/Yelich are GG defenders, and if we trade Santana and roll Phillips in RF a significant amount of the time...we might have the best outfield defense in baseball...which will help our pitching. Offense is hard to judge at this point. Theirs will be good, it's tough to judge how we'll match up without knowing who's sticking around. I still think we add someone at 2b, which would help us measure up to the Cubs. It will be important to give guys like Shaw and Braun more rest during the season as they clearly wore out down the stretch(Shaw was a 700 OPS guy the last 2 months after being more of a 900 OPS guy the first 4). I'm curious to see how Thames does with a year of scouting available. It seemed like after his big April, teams adjusted to him, and then around August he made adjustments and put up very strong September numbers.

Would you say he strikes out looking more than he should? Or is he moreso expanding the zone and swinging at bad pitches from what you've seen? It is altogether possible he's making too much bad contact, I can't imagine it's a ton of line drives going right to the CF. This definitely gives me some reason to hope though.

I don't think there's much risk of seeing him unless we don't add a high end starter or have multiple injuries. And even if we don't add a starter, the competition for the 5th spot should be fairly intense. Guerra/Gallardo/Suter/Wilkerson...Miley would have a tough time beating them out. It also wouldn't be the worst thing to have him pitch in AAA, I think we are a bit thin for starters at that level.

As noted, a depth move. If we have 2 injuries in camp, or if this guy hit the juice and added 2-3 mph to his fastball over the offseason...we might see him in a Brewers uniform on opening day.

Good depth move, Miley seems to think he has a chance to earn a starting job.

One side thought I had for Arrieta, it might make sense for him to sit out a couple months and take a 1 year $15-20ish million deal starting in June from a team that loses a starter. Saves him some innings, lets him play for a guaranteed contender, and gives him a chance to reset his market for the 2018-19 class. He'll have the added selling point in 18-19 that he only pitched 130 innings instead of 220 like Kershaw/Keuchel. And more post season success would be hugely beneficial.

That might be a shade high for Cobb, and a shade low for Arrieta. I think that would be a fun poll question if someone knows how to do that. I think the odds of us getting one of those two guys are very high.

Teams are privately held and don't require published financials. Forbes has made estimates of team revenues, I've also seen that player salaries have steadily averaged 56% across all teams. I doubt anyone has any specific numbers on other expenses though. I for one would be extremely interested in seeing what team financials look like.

I don't hate the idea as a target, assuming he has options remaining which I'm sure he does. I don't think Broxton is enough to get Sims though, we would have to add at least a mid level prospect(Gatewood/Grisham) possibly more. Sims wouldn't be a terrible target as piece number 3 in a Santana deal. Maybe ask for a good prospect, Sims, and a flier. Their system is so strong that even getting their 3rd or 4th best pitching prospect probably doesn't hurt them.

Anyone see that the PA is keeping club officials out of the new camp? Apparently an assistant GM had to be escorted out. I'm with the players on this one. This shouldn't become a precedent where they can wait until spring and get a look at guys before signing. If a player wants to work out and it be seen by teams(Lincecum), that's the players choice. It would be a dangerous precedent to let club officials see these workouts.

My goal wasn't this "gotcha" moment to make Theo look bad. Moreso to point out that you can't take what a GM says publicly about their offseason strategy as fact. Slide that logic over to Stearns, him saying we are going to spring with the starters we have is probably misdirection to some degree. We'll add someone. Suter won't be the 5th starter to open the season barring injury or Woodruff being dreadful in ST.

In October he said a high priced starting pitcher wasn't their preferred method, then today he said Darvish was their primary target from day 1 of the offseason.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-cubs-postseason-self-assessment-spt-1021-20171020-story.html The twitter post is apparently from today. The 2nd link includes a quote from earlier in the offseason. These 2 quotes completely contradict each other, so he is absolutely lying in one of them(or both). I thought I'd share for those who like to read into quotes from GM's, clearly they aren't worth the paper they are written on. This isn't a knock on Theo, I don't blame him one bit for lying in October or lying now(or both) as he's saying the right things and not revealing his intentions.

This isn't a terrible deal for any team. I admittedly don't know much about the 2 diamondbacks prospects, I would hope at least one is top 50 overall prospects. If so, I'd be on board. From a Brewers perspective, I'd be happy to get a guy like Fulmer for that return.

Groome is probably their top prospect. I would also target Mata in a trade even though as of 2017 he wasn't highly ranked, he's very young. If going to Boston for prospects, I would specifically target those 2 guys as the headliners in the package.

+1. You might have an argument if said team was the Marlins or Pirates. Attanasio has a proven track record of playing to win and investing in the club.

Doesn't happen often, but with all of the collusion talk and the union setting up a separate spring training for the loads of unsigned free agents, this isn't a normal year. If players and agents think the teams are lowballing them, I think some players and agents will "make a statement" and Boras will be leading the charge. I specifically remember Rafael Soriano sitting out until very late May coming of a 3.19 ERA and 3.08 FIP season, firing his agent, and signing a minor league contract shortly after. Anyone care to guess who is agent was? Huge name closer gets a minor league deal because Boras screwed him over with his outrageous demands, I wish teams/players would notice stuff like this more.