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KeithStone53151

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Everything posted by KeithStone53151

  1. KeithStone53151
    I'm maintaining a sheet tracking the records each team would need to hit to tie Milwaukee (GB is games back in winning column just to ease automating the updates) That's cute that you included the Pirates... In seriousness, that's super useful...thanks for posting.
  2. KeithStone53151
    Can you imagine if instead of us trading for Adames, if the Reds had made that trade either in the offseason or before we did? Kyle Farmer has been on a bit of a roll lately but for most of the season SS has been a black hole for that team. They had reportedly had interest in the offseason and during the season but never got it done.
  3. KeithStone53151
    There are a number of factors that go into it, but certain players are able to maintain higher BABIPs over the course of their careers. I'm not sure when BABIP starts to stabilize, kinda feels like it never really does, but Willy's got 1,527 PAs now since 2018 with the 11th highest BABIP in MLB. Thought his batted ball profile was kind of interesting... w/ TBR: 99 Pull+ | 100 Cent+ | 101 Oppo+ w/ MIL: 108 Pull+ | 85 Cent+ | 109 Oppo+ w/ TBR: 101 LD+ | 108 GB+ | 89 FB+ w/ MIL: 113 LD+ | 79 GB+ | 105 FB+ Keep in mind we're talking about 1254 PAs with TBR vs only 273 PAs with MIL so far, but it looks like being able to actually see the ball has helped Willy to get it off the ground with much more frequency. I thought looking at the rates that the 25% or so increase in chase rate at the trop was only part of the story. I would bet his swings at home were far less confident than on the road or with the Brewers...which would logically lead to less hard contact and more ground balls. This trade at the moment is on a short list of best trades Stearns has ever made.
  4. KeithStone53151
    I was a bit surprised by the bump as it didn't really seem like something we NEEDED to do but I understand the thought to a degree. He still seemed pretty challenged at AA and he's only 21. For all those picking on certain stats of his, just remember he's only 21 yet and on the doorstep to MLB. From everything I remember about his profile, his baseball IQ and makeup are about as high as it gets for his age. Pushing him generally makes sense for that reason even if the stats aren't exactly what you want. Also worth noting, the Biloxi home park plays as very pitcher friendly to LH hitters especially. I've been to the park and substantial wind was coming off the ocean the entire time I was in Biloxi(4 days or so), which blows in directly from RF. As for a September callup for Hamilton/Turang, at the moment we aren't in a tight enough race that it would be super necessary. Especially with Turang and having to add him to the 40 man and start his service clock so early for PR appearances only. The experience for him would probably be excellent and help him overall(if the division gets locked up with 6-8 games left you could even find a few starts for him probably), but it's probably overall not worth starting his clock early. Especially for Turang considering his SB success rate in AA was kinda bad...I wouldn't want him trying to steal against MLB pitchers/catchers. A better bet would be Corey Ray if healthy, as he's certainly less valuable at this point, faster, and can hold his own or better in the outfield in a pinch if needed.
  5. KeithStone53151
    I haven't seen anything about this posted yet. He's more or less getting a slap on the wrist at worst from the law for some seriously nasty stuff. I suspect we will unfortunately see him play baseball next year. https://foxsportsradio.iheart.com/content/2021-07-29-prosecutors-ditch-felony-charge-on-marcel-ozuna-after-seeing-bodycam-video/
  6. KeithStone53151
    If given the choice between playing the Braves and the NL West team of my choice, I'd take the Braves in a heartbeat. It's certainly better to have this COVID crisis now than a month or two from now. There's a real chance the Dodgers leapfrog the Giants and take the number 1 overall seed for the playoffs. I'm generally good with the Brewers being positioned with the number 2 seed even if it means losing home field advantage in the best of 7 in the NLCS assuming we get that far(knocking on all the wood).
  7. KeithStone53151
    So I was looking at Houser on fangraphs after seeing that 3.69 ERA. He basically seems slightly worse in almost every way than last year, yet his ERA went from 5.3 last year to 3.7 this year. Last year he had a slightly better k rate, better bb rate, better hard hit rate, better barrel percentage. The only notable numbers that were better in 2021 than 2020 were hr rate and LOB%, which are subject to wild fluctuations. More or less, he's the same pitcher he was last year simply a bit more lucky and with a much better defense behind him. After looking a bit, I'll tweak this to say he has been slightly less unlucky this year than last. A 61% LOB number is pretty darn unlucky unless you're a complete launching pad. Currently the lowest on the Brewers this year with more than 20 IP is Suter with 73.1%. Also BABIP in 2020 was the highest of his career by over 20 points with not a significantly different(and certainly not worse) batted ball profile to 2019 or 2021. So more or less he's about a 4 ERA pitcher with a pretty big sample at this point.
  8. KeithStone53151
    It's hard to say whether it was a poor decision to use him right away. This isn't a 22 year old kid, he's pitched out of the bullpen for over a decade and knows how to prepare both mentally and physically. Time with the catchers probably wouldn't have mattered as the guy throws 2 pitches, it doesn't take rocket science to figure out the strategy for a guy with 2 pitches. Also his stay on the active roster was always likely to be a very short one as when our pitchers are ready to return...he'll probably get the boot unless he was impressive and lights out right away.
  9. KeithStone53151
    This situation is admittedly a bit tough on the player. The Mets simply get a pick and bonus pool money next year, Rocker has to wait a year to have a shot to enter MLB. That's a ton of development time and risk. For all we know the Mets were severely lowballing him. I would like to see the players union put some focus on the minor leagues and draft pick situations like this one, but I'm guessing they'll entirely focus on service time/free agency. In this case, if a team doesn't at least offer say 50% of slot...he should be allowed to sign anywhere up to slot value of the pick and have that money go against your draft or international pool or something. There's just gotta be a better way than he has to wait a full year before he has a chance to latch on with a team due to stupid red tape.
  10. KeithStone53151
    That's just a really sad and disappointing result for Axford. A long time coming and to struggle and then get hurt, just a shame. Definitely feel for the guy a bit.
  11. KeithStone53151
    Two weeks to show you have just as good of stuff and can stick in the pen. It’s better than sitting in AAA and possibly never getting the opportunity. Right. Let's just say he makes 3 scoreless appearances hitting 98 over the next week. It might be tough to punt him away for Gustave or someone else that can be sent to the minors.
  12. KeithStone53151
    It makes you wonder to be honest. Like maybe they know something we don't. Whatever, this is super fun. He can start out as a mop up guy and go from there. Not a ton of risk in doing that.
  13. KeithStone53151
    I thought I remember him being a reverse splits his entire time in Tampa as well. He's probably a candidate for a day off when we face lefties
  14. KeithStone53151
    Stearns specifically said after the Escobar trade they would look at playing him at 1st even though he never has and that Escobar was open to it. Right, I just think it will take more than 48 hours for him to be comfortable enough there to play it in a game considering zero experience there. Maybe in a couple weeks... That's my guess.
  15. KeithStone53151
    It's probably a bit too soon to get Escobar AND urias in the lineup. I don't think either plays 1b. So unless they put Escobar in corner OF I don't think that'll happen. I guess wong could take a day off but I kinda doubt that too
  16. KeithStone53151
    I really wanted the brewers to target a lefty reliever at the deadline. We have hader who is the closer, and suter who really doesn't have specifically great lefty splits. So having a guy to face good lefties in the 6-7th innings seemed pretty important to get. Statistically it looks like he can do that, but i have some hope that he's found something over the last month or 2 and can be a real difference maker in the pen down the stretch
  17. KeithStone53151
    I'm a bit impressed with Escobar's composure. First game with a new team, contender, at the trade deadline. Probably really wants to show his stuff...swing the bat...hit a bomb...yet has the patience to take 2 walks. This coming from a guy not watching the game and have no idea what the pitches looked like
  18. KeithStone53151
    Weird take with constant wildfire smoke over Wisconsin right now. And yes I know you were joking… Mostly just weird to have such a preference during a 2 month rental...
  19. KeithStone53151
    He’s ring-chasing, and hate or not, the Dodgers are the logical choice. So I guess there’s only one thing left to do, in the immortal words of Jake Taylor… Technically reports all said west coast. So Dodgers/Padres/Giants/Angels/etc. Because it would frankly be just horrible for 2 months of your life to be in Milwaukee vs LA. How would you even survive not breathing in smoke from wildfires for 2 straight months?
  20. KeithStone53151
    Suter isn't specifically good against lefties anyways...while Norris is exactly that.
  21. KeithStone53151
    That's a good looking lineup, but a little aggressive slotting Escobar in cleanup and sliding Tellez/Garcia down a notch. Also Taylor is absolutely on fire and hitting 7th in our lineup and it really isn't THAT ridiculous that he's hitting that low.
  22. KeithStone53151
    It's gotta be Scherzer, Tom H mentions it may have been the Cubs not wanting to send us players but I kinda doubt that to be honest. Bryant can fit literally anywhere but it's hard to imagine the Cubs not taking the best offer for a rental...regardless of who it's too. Sure maybe they don't send us a guy with 3 years of control but a non competing year is whatever. It's about Scherzer for sure. Boo that man when we face him...
  23. KeithStone53151
    Looks like this is a fastball(95)/slider(87) guy and throws each pitch around half the time. I expected based on that arsenal to good look at his splits and see LH hitting way better than RH...but that's actually not the case. This year it's about even and last year RH hit significantly better than LH. So, this guy is just kinda weird. Nothing about his peripherals tells me he should be an exceedingly good pitcher, but his numbers the last couple years have been very good. I really wanted us to get a reliever better than Boxberger to be our 3rd best option and this guy appears to be that guy...
  24. KeithStone53151
    That's a truly insane return, but Kimbrel has been insane. Cub fans should be beyond stoked
  25. KeithStone53151
    Madrigal...wow
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