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BruisedCrew

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Everything posted by BruisedCrew

  1. BruisedCrew
    Going to be up to the bullpens tonight if the Brewers are still in the game after this inning.
  2. BruisedCrew
    He also said “astronomical”. I save words like that for things like a particular person winning the lottery, not something close to rolling snake eyes on a roll of a pair of dice. When I was 12 years old in 1964 the Phillies had a 6.1/2 game lead with 12 games to play and everyone was talking about how great it was that the Phillies, who had been doormats for several years, were going to the World Series. They proceeded to lose 10 in a row while the Cardinals won 9 out of 10 and the Phillies were mathematically eliminated before the last day of the season. There were probably some Phillies fans that year saying “All the Phillies have to do is win half of their last 12 games and nobody can catch them”. They didn’t and somebody did. There have been several similar “almost impossible” situations in my lifetime. When you’ve seen it happen it’s not hard to imagine it happening again. Which is why I wonder if some posters have ever seen it happen.
  3. BruisedCrew
    I really wonder how old you are. I understand the mathematical probabilities, however you try to calculate them. But I know from experience that baseball isn’t played with math. If you looked at just math, teams would virtually never have winning streaks or losing streaks of 10 games or more. If the Brewers win one of the next 2 they would have an 8 game lead with 23 to play., with 3 head to head games left. Very unlikely that they would come back, but not “almost impossible”.
  4. BruisedCrew
    I said on Monday that I won’t be satisfied unless the Brewers win at least 3 of the 7 games against the Cubs. That would limit the Cubs to a 1 game gain and give the Brewers the tiebreaker. The Brewers got one, but I’ll be pretty disappointed if they don’t get at least one more these next 2 days. Losing both would leave open the possibility of a Cubs sweep next week that would make the race more interesting than I would like, and force the Brewers to win the series next week just to get the tiebreaker. But even if you think the division race is already in the bag these are still important games. Of course, every game is important in the race for the byes, and wins over the Cubs (and the Reds, Pirates,and Cardinals) also help in the tiebreaker battle with the Braves (or possibly the Phillies).
  5. BruisedCrew
    Peterson did a pretty good job against the Brewers when he faced them in June.
  6. BruisedCrew
    Somebody please put up Marshall Edwards.
  7. BruisedCrew
    They’re just starting Spring Training for Snell and Glasnow and Ohtani is still on hold.
  8. BruisedCrew
    Phillies for me.
  9. BruisedCrew
    Sweet win. Looked bad for those first 5 innings but finally broke through. I really feel good for Yelich coming up with a big HR
  10. BruisedCrew
    Can he hit too? I’m still waiting to see the Brewers elite offense take advantage of the Cubs God awful pitching.
  11. BruisedCrew
    I don’t think anybody expects Gasser to be a stopper, but hopefully he can keep the team in the game for 4 or 5 innings and the offense can put up some runs. I don’t think the Brewers are going to win any 3-2 or 2-1 games in this series with the wind blowing out, so it’s up to the offense to be competitive.
  12. BruisedCrew
    It’s pretty amazing considering that the Brewers offense is just as good.
  13. BruisedCrew
    We’re going to learn some things about this team in the next few days.
  14. BruisedCrew
    That was my point. May might, or might not, be better than Gausman.
  15. BruisedCrew
    I think there might be some disagreement about whether May was the best pitcher available at the deadline after Skubal.
  16. BruisedCrew
    Going down that path, the Cubs had Thursday off. The Brewers last off day was Monday. From the Cubs perspective these games are 7 of the last 10 of 13 days in a row. For the Brewers they are 7 of the last 10 of 16 days in a row. On this count I don’t think there’s any advantage either way.
  17. BruisedCrew
    It’s here. The 10 days that will determine if the last 15 games will find the Brewers cruising to a division title and focusing entirely on getting a bye, or fighting to hold off a Cubs charge. Fortunately the Brewers are entering this stretch with a significantly bigger lead than it looked like they would have just a few weeks ago. i’m not going to make any prediction about what I think is going to happen in these games, but even with the bigger lead, I am focusing on the Brewers winning at least three of the seven games against the Cubs. .If the Cubs win five, they would take three games off of the Brewers lead and earn the tiebreaker. Anything less than that would put them in position to need a Brewers collapse on the level of the 1964 Phillies or 2007 Mets. While the Brewers would still have a nice lead, it would keep some pressure on them and weaken their position in the race for a bye.
  18. BruisedCrew
    This sounds like you are engaging in what you and some others on the board have objected to as “cherry picking”. Or are you conceding that players, and by extension their teams, can change over the course of a season?
  19. BruisedCrew
    Today was one of the worst games I’ve attended in recent years. The worst part was the glacial,pace, which provided a reminder of the pre pitch clock days Almost an hour to complete 2 innings at 2-1 is insane. It didn’t get any better from there. For family reasons we usually only stay for about 2 1/2 hours unless the game is close and near conclusion. Today that only took us to the end of the sixth inning.
  20. BruisedCrew
    Is this cherry picking because it doesn’t consider the whole season? 😀 Do the bullpen losses include losses by normal starters who entered in the second or third inning after openers? I think there were a couple of those in April.
  21. BruisedCrew
    I assume you mean that your fingers are crossed because you’re lying, not because you are hoping it will happen. The former is fingers crossed behind your back.
  22. BruisedCrew
    Early runs and a little add on. A couple more runs in the 7th would have saved a few points on the BP, but at least Megill avoided any drama.
  23. BruisedCrew
    Drohan’s outing so far reminds me of how he looked at the Twins game we attended. His command was off from the beginning and he wormed out of a couple innings early on before the wheels came off.
  24. BruisedCrew
    I know I have been critical of the Brewers offense in some recent years, but I don’t recall if I have used the word “inconsistent”. But now I am talking about this year, and I don’t think I have said the offense has been inconsistent. I have pointed out that they have gone for periods of a month or longer this season in which their RPG has been near or below league average
  25. BruisedCrew
    Do you have data on the overall winning percentage of teams in the NL when scoring and allowing a certain number of runs? For example when a team scores exactly 2 runs, what is the winning percentage. Or, when a team allows exactly 4 runs, how often do they win. Baseball Reference used to have this data, but dropped it a couple of years ago. I would like to confirm my suspicion that the biggest secret to the Brewers success is that they win more often with low run scoring totals than the average team would.
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