CheeseheadInQC

He has been hitting for more power since spring training so I’m inclined to think the added power is real. The bigger question for me is K-rate. Since May 1 his has been in the vicinity of 12 percent. If he can someone keep that up, his chances of hitting the higher ceiling that the power gives him skyrockets.

Grisham has had a really good May. He's moved into the top 15 in the league in OPS and I believe finishes the month with more walks than strikeouts. His ISO so far would also be a career best by a wide margin. He's suddenly becoming interesting again.

Given that from what I have read this draft isn’t supposed to be the best for college pitchers, I doubt it is a massive split. I’d guess 3 hitters, 4 pitchers among the slot guys with the senior signs tipping it one way or the other.

McDowell has quietly had a pretty good May.

As good as Griep has been, I’m not sure I see him as a top 25 guy. He’s repeating a level, has never been an elite strikeout guy and as good as they are, his results haven’t even made him Biloxi’s clear-cut top reliever (Perdomo was arguably better to start the year and you could make a case now for Barker). Outside of Sanchez I don’t know if I’d put any of the minor league relievers in my top 25 right now. It would be interesting to see how Griep would do in triple-A, but given the glut of pitching at San Antonio and the fact you could make a case for Barker or Ponce getting the first promotion, it might be a while.

Some nice outings for the starters today. Good to see Olson bounce back after a couple rough outings.

Pitching is a bit of a different beast, but as far as hitters go, give me toolsy guys, especially if a player is selected after the first few rounds of the draft. If look back through the Brewers' recent history, there are far more examples of the raw toolsy guys developing than of the mid- and late-round college hitters who perform well in the low minors making a significant impact in the big leagues. Unless I missed someone, since 1993, so the entirety of Corbin Burnes' life, Baseball Reference lists exactly one college hitter picked by the Brewers after round three who accumulated even 1.0 WAR (Khris Davis). After that the next best is Eric Fryer. Past him, you get into Jason Rogers, Sean Halton, Eric Farris territory. Could Wilson or Fry break this trend? Sure. But historically for the Brewers they aren't really a better bet than someone like Je'Von Ward.

To put Turang's season thus far into perspective, he currently has an OPS of .816. Between the 2007 and 2015 drafts exactly 25 guys picked in the first round out of high school had an OPS of .800 or better the next season in A ball. 24 of those reached the majors. While the list does include a few guys like Nick Franklin and Jaff Decker, a majority of the players who have been around for a while have carved out at least decent careers, and a there are a fair number of stars on the list as well (Trout, Machado, Baez and, of course, Yelich). Obviously there is a lot of season left, but if he can keep this hitting up it is a harbinger of good things to come.

Wow, not a whole lot of offense in the late games.

Can we just switch Tristen Lutz's calendars so he's got two Mays instead of an April. Good to see his bat is coming around again. And if this keeps up, even with potential inning restrictions, I can't see Lazar lasting long in Wisconsin. Those numbers are pretty crazy.

Nice to see a solid outing tonight from Francis. The results haven't been pretty at AA, but that is a pretty aggressive assignment. Also, Zavalos is certainly having himself a season.

Have there been many reports about Fry’s defense? He had so little experience behind the plate in college that I doubt he is going to be a particularly fast mover. Let him continue to gain experience at Wisconsin until Henry or Feliciano is ready for AA.

Along with Lazar, I'll toss in another Wisconsin pitcher: Reese Olson. The fact that he hasn't looked overmatched at his age and experience level I think at this point in the season has to be considered a win. His WHIP is close to Hill and Ashby and better than Sunitsch. In short, he belongs, and any high school pitcher who can look like they belong at A ball less than a year after being drafted is someone to take notice of.

A little late to the party here, but the more I read on Gary, the more I'm OK with the pick after being a bit tepid to start with on it simply because I don't know that his floor is necessarily as low as it is talked about. When you hear low floor, you think out of the NFL in a couple of years, but there is no reason, given his strength, size and athleticism why the positives in his game won't translate to the NFL. At minimum, he seems like an edge-setter and pocket collapser who could be much more. You can maybe argue about the likelihood of him reaching his ceiling, but I think his floor has been undersold a bit. Barring injury, I doubt he is a washout. As for not getting a wide receiver, I didn't read up on the draft as much this year as in past seasons, but outside of possibly Brown in round two, I'm not sure there is a guy I could make a good case for taking over who the Packers drafted, at least in the first five rounds. And after that, you might as well give last year's trio a chance to grow because I'm not sure you're getting more upside.

Nice to see Feliciano heating up, along with a few of the Wisconsin guys.

I'm not saying he will, because who knows how well he'll perform, but I think the one best situated to make a giant leap by midseason is Olson. He's the one who a half season of good results probably benefits most given his age and current placement in the also ran section of the list.

Guys who have come up as relievers generally need exceptional seasons or really high upside scouting reports to get many votes, and Griep was outshone last year in every category but saves by Olczak, Sanchez and pre-injury QTC, plus a guy like Ponce had a bigger prospect pedigree and had marginally better stats after being moved to the bullpen. A bigger year in the other stats (sub 3.00 ERA, sub 1.20 WHIP, 10+ K/9, etc.) will attract more attention. Last night was definitely a good start.

It's nice to see the power he was showing in the spring according to the game recaps is carrying over.

You know it's a pretty good night for the starting pitchers when the worst of the bunch posts an 8-1 K/BB ratio. Really liking that line from Houser.

From what they said on the podcast: Sunitsch Salaman Lazar/Olson Ashby Hill/Bullock

Now that the rosters are out it is interesting to look back. It's remarkable how different the hitting and pitching decisions were. On the hitting side, there were really no surprises, with the biggest decisions seeming to be one that I was one of the few who thought was a tossup (Erceg) and them deciding not to do anything bold at Wisconsin (none of Gray, Bello, Rodriguez, Ernesto or Howell skipped Colorado Springs). On the pitching side you had a surprising cut (Harber), a conservative approach to some of the top prospects (Supak at Biloxi, Ashby at Wisconsin), doing something bold at Wisconsin (Olson) and a veritable who's who of the also receiving votes category from the board's prospect poll not on any roster (Kirby, Ponce, Roegner, Andrews, Bickford, Rasmussen, Matulovich, Lemons).

Given the way the Brewers often shuttle relievers up and down I doubt super 2 is even a consideration, especially with Perdomo. While both are intriguing, I think they'd probably have to leapfrog Houser, Brown, Petricka, Fields, Sanchez and possibly Olczak at least in the pecking order, plus possibly one of the current starters if Nelson takes one of those spots.

I knew there were going to be some tough pitching cuts at AA and A+, but Harber really surprises. I know he is old for his level, but it seemed as if he really turned a corner toward the end of last season. Thought he'd at least end up with a Tyler Cravyesque run with the Brewers at some point.

Still preliminary, and if we learn the rosters in time, it could change a few of those listed, especially the Wisconsin pitching staff. If Jarvis or Olson cracks the Wisconsin rotation, I'll probably elevate them into the top 25. Even at going out to 50, it seemed as if I left a fair number out. 1. Keston Hiura: Easy choice 2. Zack Brown: Always been a big fan of his. Could be the Brewers next better stuff than results in college success story after Woodruff's rise 3. Corey Ray: Just cut down on the K's 4. Brice Turang: Just holding his own at Wisconsin this year would be a good sign. 5. Tristen Lutz: Hoping for a second year breakout. Still really like the upside. 6. Jacob Nottingham: If the more optimistic takes on his defense are correct, think he can be a solid starter. 7. Aaron Ashby: One of the Brewers' most important prospects given the dearth of left-handed starting options, especially ones with big-time stuff 8. Pablo Abreu: The positive spring training reports made it official. This is the new Zack Brown-style prospect bandwagon I'm helping lead. 9. Mauricio Dubon: At worst probably a solid utility man, but a bit nervous about the upside. 10. Payton Henry: No one seems to have a bad word to say about him. 11. Trey Supak: The likelihood of getting sent back to AA tempers my enthusiasm a bit. 12. Lucas Erceg: Hoping he can be a bit of a late-bloomer after last-season's struggles. 13. Braden Webb: Would be higher if I was convinced he could start. 14. Carlos Rodriguez: Hit tool definitely seems to be there. 15. Adrian Houser: Still think he can be an above average Big League reliever. 16. Joe Gray: Lots of talent, but can it all come together. 17. Troy Stokes: K's and the arm. The latter can't be fixed, but if he can curb the former, it might not matter as much. 18. Mario Feliciano: Still think there is talent there after a lost season. 19. Je'Von Ward: This is kind of the dropoff point, so I went with upside 20. Trent Grisham: I'm probably reading too much into his big spring, but if he could find a way to blend power and contact with his on-base skills, the Brewers might have something here. 21. Reese Olson: In a year when the Brewers were pretty conservative about starting pitching assignments, him making Wisconsin's roster says something 22. Tyrone Taylor: Strong spring puts him back on the map 23. Max Lazar: Helena stats really good in context. 24. Marcos Diplan: Keep wanting to like him, but the results have to start showing through. 25. Miguel Sanchez: Can never have too many solid relief arms 26. Micah Bello 27. Jake Gatewood 28. Jolon Zhao 29. Justin Jarvis 30. Caden Lemons 31. Drew Rasmussen 32. Adam Hill 33. Justin Bullock 34. Nathan Kirby 35. Clayton Andrews 36. Cody Ponce 37. Larry Ernesto 38. Chad McClanahan 39. Eduarqi Fernandez 40. Eduardo Garcia 41. Bowden Francis 42. Andres Melendez 43. Bobby Wahl 44. Quintin Torres-Costa 45. Jon Olczak 46. LG Castillo 47. David Fry 48. Korry Howell 49. Zach Clark 50. Michele Vassalotti

I know it probably means nothing, but two things have stuck out to me with the minor league spring training lineups: 1. The Brewers seem to be keeping the presumed Timber Rattler core mostly together in Wisconsin, with Fry, McClanahan, Coca, Turang, Abreu and Castillo all getting at least three spring starts at A thus far with only a stray A+ start here or there for any of them. 2. The seventh player who can claim that is YongKang Kou. Once again, it probably means nothing, and spring lineups don't get predictive until right before the season starts, but I think that would be about as big of a shocker as I can remember if he starts out in A ball.