CheeseheadInQC

I like it. It doesn't preclude a higher-profile 2nd base signing while at the same time allowing them to forego the position if the front office determines the money that one would take could be better spent elsewhere.

With the increasing focus on Latin American signings, I like this. Otherwise it would be too easy for young players to get buried beneath the next wave of draft picks/dsl promotions after one bad year. It would be especially apparent in the outfield this year. Guys like Melendez, Cipion and Florentino might get playing time and a better chance to develop than they would have otherwise.

While some of the political/economic commentary sprinkled in is bizarre to the point of seeming like satire (how dare a club not want to become insolvent) it does in a way raise a question I've often wondered about: If baseball had total revenue sharing, would the analytics-based changes that have taken place have come more quickly because when no one is having an economic advantage everyone would be seeking a different kind of one or would its impact have been lessened seeing as many of the early or more ardent adopters of some of the primary thorns in purists' sides have been smaller market teams willing to take risks in order to try to level the playing field, at least temporarily until the rest of the league sees what works and copies it. I tend to lean toward the latter.

Yah, I was convinced for two years running that Tyler Cravy was going to be picked. While I haven't looked closely enough to see this year, generally there are types that go, especially among pitchers (the loogy, the 100 mph guy, the massive K rate/massive walk rate guy) and Olczak (or the guy I was a bit concerned about, Harber) didn't really fit neatly into any of them.

Wow, when I saw the list initially I figured no one would get elected and only Smith would garner more than a token vote or two. Is Frankie Frisch back on the committee?

Someone has to back up Nottingham at AAA. Every catcher in the upper levels seems to get an NRI just to have bodies there, so that means nothing.

Thanks for putting this together. It is always fascinating. I always find it interesting which players, even with 73 mentioned, didn't interest anyone enough to put them in the top 25 even though some would probably rank them higher than many of the ones listed. For instance I believe only two college pitchers drafted and signed by the Brewers in 2018 did not make the list. Brady Schanuel had a disastrous debut, although there is still upside there. The other though posted a 1.16 WHIP and 10+ K/9 at Wisconsin. Not saying Hintzen deserved to be in the top 25 (I obviously didn't include him on my list), just that it was interesting that almost all of them got a vote except him. Also from the 2018 draft, eight players got $200K+ bonuses. Three, Reese Olson, Korry Howell and Wade Beasley did not make the list (Olson actually got more to sign than Jarvis). Also, one injury-plagued year knocked last year's fourth-rounder Brendan Murphy from consideration. I believe the top defenders in the minor league system at the two top defensive positions, Max McDowell and Antonio Pinero, also didn't make any top 25s.

The article isn't exactly wrong on the Brewers' struggles to develop hitters in recent years as compared with pitchers. I wonder if this is the cause of them focusing so much of their prospect-acquisition capital on hitters, if the team is simply more confident in its ability to develop major league pitching from later rounds even if it occasionally takes an island of misfit toys approach to get there. They've had good luck with pitchers with more talent than results in college like Woodruff, Brown, even Hanhold was turning a corner before getting traded (one reason I'm not completely discounting Schanuel despite his disaster of a debut season) and have seen other guys really improve their stock in recent years. Andrews will be fascinating to watch, but I don't know how much we can glean from the results until he reaches AA or AAA. He was an elite college pitcher. It would have been mildly surprising if he wasn't good in A ball despite the round he was drafted in.

Either he is vastly overestimating the relevance of his information or this goes beyond talks with a free agent. Unless something was imminent, the Brewers talking to a free agent, even one who seemingly doesn't make sense for them, is part of a notes package anywhere but Milwaukee. This seems like either a weird trade that is being discussed or something non-transaction related.

Most of the names on the unprotected list have either missed most of all of two seasons with injuries, struggled last year and were on the fringes of the roster or both. That makes Kuntz' name stand out. It seems like he would have made either the AA or AAA roster, but then I guess there haven't been many minor league free agent signings yet either. That he made the cut is probably a vote of confidence for Spurlin, who could have slotted in with the injured on the unprotected list, as well as Preston Gainey (still have foolish hope there).

Leaving spots open (or with expendable players) leaves flexibility for later. Better to leave a guy like Gatewood exposed to the Rule 5 draft if you think he has only a small chance of getting picked than to find themselves needing to expose him to waivers to make room for an offseason acquisition. And I have a feeling that extra spot would have gone to QTC if not for the injury.

Interesting. I really thought a second pitcher would be added as well, assuming this is the full list. There are a fair number of guys who it wouldn’t be entirely shocking to see picked, but no one like Diaz who was nearly a lock.

I’ll guess: Lock: Trey Supak Likely: Troy Stokes Pick one of two: Jon Olczak, Conor Harber Wild card: QTC 25/75 against: Jake Gatewood, Nathan Kirby, Max McDowell, Cody Ponce Unlikely but not inconceivable: Devin Williams, Phil Bickford, Bubba Derby

Two of the three guys you mentioned don’t really fit the pattern, but it seems as if the Brewers were quite willing to sacrifice floor for ceiling this draft. Along with the focus on prep and JuCo players, I believe the first four four-year college picks they signed all had aspects that significantly raised their risk but also potentially left them undervalued: a pitcher with major injury problems, a catcher who has barely caught, a DII pitcher and a pitcher who is, if I remember correctly, 5-6.

I will say partially because they've started spending more consistently in Latin America and partially because their interesting draft strategy last year, it seems like there are more breakout candidates at the lower levels who wouldn't have made this type of list than there have been in some other recent years. That being said, this ranking feels right, but given the amount that they traded away in the last year and the graduation of their top three pitching prospects, it's also not exactly surprising. The fact that they aren't lower is actually vaguely impressive.

Yah, I could be wrong, but it seems as if it happens about once every three years or so. Unless a guy blows up in a winter league, it has always struck me as bizarre because unless a player grabs the first offer he gets, presumably a team that likes him that much would offer him a big league deal like Moore got. And presumably the player would prefer the big league deal.

It would probably have to be an organization a bit behind in its scouting, though. I assume he probably would have signed with a team if he had been offered a major league contract and any team that likes him enough to take him in the Rule 5 certainly would prefer to have him for just a 40-man spot, not a 40-man spot with restrictions.

I guess I'm of two minds on Taylor. On one hand, the production is a bit fringy for the 40-man spot. On the other hand, he's the exact type of guy I'd hope they'd target in minor league free agency: athletic, still fairly young, can play a premium defensive position.

1. Keston Hiura: Pretty obvious at this point 2. Zack Brown: I've pretty much been the president of his fan club on here for a while, but this ranking is partially because of the late season slumps of the next three. 3. Corey Ray: 3-5 are close, but Ray has highest upside 4. Brice Turing: Will the bat play in full season ball next year? If it does, should rocket up list. 5. Tristen Lutz: Bad bookends marred an otherwise very successful season 6. Jacob Nottingham: Still think he's being a bit underrated in some of the catching discussions 7. Mauricio Dubon: Looked to be breaking out. At least should provide a cheap utility option 8. Trey Supak: Performance not that far off Brown's this year, especially once he settled down at AA 9. Aaron Ashby: This may be premature, but I'm buying in. This system needs a lefty starting prospect with some upside 10. Lucas Erceg: Just when he seemed to be cranking it into high gear, August happened. 11. Payton Henry: Tailed off a bit in first year of full season ball, but seems as if he could have a future 12. Troy Stokes: Once again, if only the arm played elsewhere 13. Pablo Abreu: Now that Brown's basically a consensus top 10 guy, I need someone else to be ridiculously optimistic about. Abreu and No. 20 are the new ones. 14. Carlos Rodriguez: Lots of hits. Can he get more for extra bases, though? 15. Joe Gray: Upside, but debut underwhelming in some regards 16. Adrian Houser: Still think he can be an above average relief arm. 17. Marcos Diplan: Still's got the upside in relief, but I've given up on him as a starter 18. Mario Feliciano: The AFL spot was good, the subsequent injury not so much 19. Braden Webb: Felt like a breakthrough happened. Could rise fast. 20. Conor Harber: I'll probably be highest on him, but I think he could turn into a very good reliever 21. Jake Gatewood: The homers are good, the fact he's a first base prospect who has never cracked the .800 OPS threshold isn't. 22. Je'Von Ward: I think he or Abreu will break out in Wisconsin next year. 23. Micah Bello: Outfield depth means he'll probably try to build up the offense in CS next season. 24. Jolon Zhao: I'm buying the hype 25. Max Lazar: That Helena season was pretty good in context 26. Trent Grisham: This might be a bit low, but he has to start doing something above average other than walking 27. Caden Lemons: Hopefully next year is when he starts justifying the optimism about his upside 28. Bowden Francis: Can't justify this other than draft status and the late season promotion. Just have a feeling. 29. Weston Wilson: The hitting sure has picked up 30. Zach Clark: If how interesting a prospect is can be determined by the variety of reasonable outcomes, Clark is the most interesting prospect in the system. He could be a top five guy by this time next season or he could be out of baseball and neither would surprise me. 31. Cody Ponce: Still vaguely pessimistic 32. Tyrone Taylor: Mainly because the Brewers liked him enough for the 40 man 33. Quintin Torres-Costa: Missing a season will hurt 34. Miguel Sanchez: Close between he, Melendez and Olczak for the 34-36 spots. Love the K rate 35. Andres Melendez: Impressive debut season. Haven't heard much about the defense, but he hit well enough in DSL.

I know it's just a handful of innings, but it would be nice Daniel Brown would carry over the momentum from his strong showing thus far in the AFL into becoming a more legitimate prospect. Even if it is as a third lefty, injury fill-in type, the Brewers have shown they are willing to get a lot of mileage (quite literally) out of those guys during their option years.

There is also some anti-Chicago sentiment in certain parts of Illinois that leads some people to root for the teams' rivals, although that shows up more in Cardinals (or Packers, truthfully) fans than Brewers ones.

It’s good to see the Gainey news. I’ve always been bizarrely high on his chances to make it as a reliever.

Fair or not, I think with the top candidates being so close, if your team misses the playoffs, you're probably out. Also, given the whole veteran stabilizing force on a young, surprising team storyline, I wouldn't count out Freddie Freeman.

I have no real problem with the price tag, but then I've never really been a Harrison guy. He always seemed in a weird way as much of a lottery ticket when he was drafted as Nash Walters in that he had big league regular potential, but it relied upon something that even then appeared unlikely to happen, namely him sticking at catcher. If the Brewers decided he wasn't a catcher, then what is the upside? Sean Halton? Garrett Cooper with less raw power? If he is now a first baseman, does he even rate toward the top of the Brewers system among first base/corner outfield types? Even excluding the top-25 types, he can't really be above Wilson, right? Is he even ahead of fellow converted catcher Hummel? I might be way off base, but if Connell has any upside I think this might be the weakest of the three trade packages the Brewers sent out and I'd definitely rate it behind the Walker deal from last year that many people looked at as a giveaway.

I imagine it is a combination of things. First is opportunity cost. If you give more time to someone like Hummel (and you’d have to if they are that far away on defense) that is less time for others who have a better chance to stick at catcher like McDonald or Feliciano. Also it seems like the more time is spent focusing on defense for catching the more the offense stalls (see Nottingham’s down year or two or Harrison this year). If you think the chance of the defense coming around is slim, do you want to stall the offensive progress as well?