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filthyfrog

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Everything posted by filthyfrog

  1. filthyfrog
    This might warrant its own thread, but is anyone else extremely underwhelmed by Gabe Gross? Given his minor league track record, I thought he was a nice nugget when the trade was made, but when I finally got to see him play on Sunday, he made me miss Magruder. And I'm on record saying that Magruder is one of the worst players to ever spend a whole season on a roster. Seriously, does Gross do anything well? He was supposed to have decent plate discipline, but he's been chasing some pretty bad pitches. He was supposed to be a good enough corner outfielder to be passable in CF, but he looked shakey the other day, not even attempting to hold runners on third on two shallow sac flies. I know, I know, small sample, Spring Training, etc., etc. He just doesn't look very good to me and today's 0-5 with two Ks doesn't help. If there's any sort of roster crunch, I'd be just fine with Hart as the fourth OF and some combination of Hall and Sorensen as the fifth. If we're really in need of a fifth outfielder, Cruz is only a phone call away.
  2. filthyfrog
    Hey Colby, I see that a whopping 20 of your top 30 are pitchers. Is this year's pitching really that good or is the hitting really that bad?
  3. filthyfrog
    Thanks for the response. I agree with you that a 4 has more worth to an organization than a 2, but I think the difference is small enough to be negligible. Winning clubs are made up of 6s, 7s, and 8s, and the difference between a 6 and a 4 is much greater than the difference between a 2 and a 4. 6s are much harder to acquire and much rarer. And since you can find 4s and 5s in a number of ways other than the draft (trades, FA, waivers, rule 5, etc.), I don't think the likelihood of becoming a 4 (instead of a 2) should have much, if any, bearing on a draft selection. In fact, I think I would separate your numbers into two categories: 2-5 (minimal impact) and 6-8 (impact). We're both in agreement that you should select the player who has the best chance to become an impact player (also weighing how much impact they might be able to make). I guess the difference is that I don't think you should worry about where in the minor leagues the player might fail, simply whether or not you believe they'll make an impact. That said, I do acknowledge that there is a small advantage to ending up with 4s instead of 2s, but I think the advantage is small enough to safely ignore. I might pay more attention to it in the later rounds, when your chances of finding a 6+ player are so slim that it makes sense to pick up some "safe" picks. Anyway, thanks for providing this thought provoking article.
  4. filthyfrog
    Nice job on the article, Colby. I'd like to point out a potential flaw in the reasoning. The difference between high schoolers and collegians seems to be mostly due to the high flame out rate of high schoolers: high schoolers were much more likely to be ranked a 2, whereas collegians were more likely to at least reach a 4 or a 5. Is this difference important enough to justify your conclusion that college picks are safer? Yeah, they're less likely to completely flame out, but they're about equally as likely to truly help a Major League team. The numbers are pretty close when it comes to 6, 7, and 8 (I don't think a difference of 39.4% vs 34.3% is significant given the sample size). I would argue that having a player become a 4 isn't much better than becoming a 2. A 4 is easier to trade for something that actually does help, and can provide a small amount of depth, but 4s more or less grow on trees. You can pick them up for free every offseason. And while a 5 by definition helps the Major League team more than a 4, your criteria says that these players are interchangeable. So again, I think these players are easy enough to find that you don't need to worry about drafting them in the first round. I would argue that your analysis shows that college picks are less likely to flame out at the lower levels, but not necessarily more likely to make an impact on a Major League team. And I think helping the Major League team is what ultimately counts. By the way, I was surprised that there was only first rounder in all of the nineties drafted as a 2B. Who was he? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  5. filthyfrog
    If he's throwing that in the minors, it'll be even a little slower in the bigs. Toby, can you explain this comment? You say it as if it's a well known truism, but I've never heard before that pitchers slow down once they reach the majors. Some, like Sheets, even add velocity as they develop. If Hammond really does drop into the mid-80s, then I agree that he's not that great of a prospect. But if he stays where he is now, he'll get a chance in the bigs.
  6. filthyfrog
    Fielder said his agent, Scott Boras, had called Melvin to inquire about a fall reprieve. Did anyone else not know Boras was Prince's agent? I remember Cecil represented him at first, and was fired for allegedly stealing some of Prince's cash, but I don't remember hearing about him hiring the evil one.
  7. filthyfrog
    Sending Hardy to the AFL would simply have been setting him up for failure. The decision made sense at the time, but he has since proven that he can handle Major League pitching. What are the possible outcomes of playing in the AFL? 1. He could continue to hit well, which might help him out a little next year. 2. He could hit poorly, which would shake the confidence that he had just achieved. 3. He could turn one of his nagging injuries into a major one. The tiny amount of reward is not worth the risk. I applaud the Brewers brass for changing their mind. Regarding Eveland, the guy has pitched enough this year. Sending him to the AFL would be just asking for an injury, in my opinion. As already mentioned, he can get in shape without facing baseball's best hitting prospects in an unforgiving pitching environment. But I'd like to add a word of warning to those who think Dana needs to slim down: Quevedo. Stewart whipped him into shape and Ruben instantly became batting practice.
  8. filthyfrog
    bjames, I didn't mean to overvalue Brady's defense in CF. I think he's an average CF, but I also think that Corey would be below average. Maybe I'm putting too much into the adventures I saw in Spring Training, but Corey looked raw, raw, raw in the OF. The fact that the Brewers are at least experimenting with him in CF must mean they see something good in him though, so I'll take that as a sign that he's improved. I'll admit that I'm excited about the possibility of him in CF, but I see it as a temporary or backup solution rather than a longterm one.
  9. filthyfrog
    Hart in CF? On a regular basis? I think our internet/fantasy baseball world is encouraging us to forget about defense and just concentrate on OPS. I'd love to get Hart's bat in the lineup, but if he plays CF, I worry that he'd allow more runs than he'd produce (compared to, say, Clark). The Brewers are already pretty bad in the outfield with all three guys playing on the warning track. Replacing Clark with Hart would result in balls dropping in all over the place. I'm not saying that he can't do it, but you know he would be below average at least for a while. I think that would hurt a lot more than most posters here are imagining. p.s. Anyone else notice that Prince's hot streaks tend to coincide with trips to the Western hitters' paradise parks? I'm not sure what that means.
  10. filthyfrog
    I'm very interested to see what happens with how the promotions of Heether and Braun are handled. As colby already mentioned, I think there's plenty of room for both Braun and Heether at Huntsville next year. If Heether is already a good defensive 3B, then he doesn't need to be out there every day as much as Braun does. He can play some OF and 1B and spell Braun at 3B occassionally. And who knows, maybe one of them will show that they deserve a promotion at midseason in which case the problem is solved.
  11. filthyfrog
    I'm hoping we'll now swap Hart for Durrington and let Hart spell Jenkins against LHPs. For some reason, Melvin seems to really want some speed on the bench right now, but Durrington's probably not much faster than Hart anyway. And with five infielders for three positions, there's no reason to keep Trent on the roster. When Branyan comes back, send Prince back down to play every day.
  12. filthyfrog
    Well, that's what I get for skimming... Thanks molly fan. Since both hats are the right color, I just thought one of them was wearing the home hat and one the away hat.
  13. filthyfrog
    Personally, I'd rank Braun ahead of Corey Hart and Brad Nelson, as long as he stays at 3B. Technically that would put him at # 7, although one could argue that a couple of the pitchers right behind that slot could go in front of him. Anyway, I think his tools and performance make him a top 10 talent. He's not the prospect that Weeks was coming out of college, but I don't think he's far behind.
  14. filthyfrog
    Anyone else notice that Escobar and Iribarren are wearing different hats in the picture above? Just thought that was weird...
  15. filthyfrog
    Even if the Royals do pass on Gordon, and even if the Mariners take Tulo, doesn't it make sense that the Nationals would take Gordon? I just don't see anyone picking Zimmerman over Gordon. They're probably only associated with Zim because everyone's assuming Gordon will be gone. I don't want to say it's not possible, but I would be absolutely shocked if Gordon fell to us at number 5. I'd love to be wrong...
  16. filthyfrog
    I think this will be the game that they play solid defense. Man, it's sad that we have to make quotes like this. Remember when every game was the game to play solid defense?
  17. filthyfrog
    Awesome, square. You da man.
  18. filthyfrog
    Chicago sucks. Anyone notice that the two biggest additions to the Brewers have already been plunked by their former Chicago teams? What we should do is slip a submarine into Lake Michigan and torpedo the hell out of that damn city. And someone slap a Brewerfan.net bumper sticker on the back of that U-Boat.
  19. filthyfrog
    I signed up for email notices for transactions, but I get two emails every time. Brian (or anyone with access), can you check to see if I'm signed up twice?
  20. filthyfrog
    awkward wording there. I should point out that he's allowed 5 ER and 6 hits in 4 innings thus far, however, all 5 runs came in the first start after a 2 out flyball hit 10 feet behind Magruder so him come running in 15 feet, stop, and run back only to see it hit and roll to the fence, clearing the bases. If Magruder catches that one (as many little leaguers would have), then Hendrickson has 0 ER. Immediately after criticizing another poster's wording, you proceeded to include the words "so him come running in" in the middle of a run on sentence. That's awesome. I can't read the words "so him come running in" without picturing a morbidly obese woman with six teeth and a rusty trailer saying it in a Southern drawl. I don't mean to make fun. It just makes me giggle.
  21. filthyfrog
    Three hits in the second, zero in the other eight frames. Hey, at least Sheets appeared to be sharp and Hardy picked up another 2B.
  22. filthyfrog
    I'm not sure what you mean by a college repeat... I think he was just emphasizing the word college, in case the underline wasn't enough.
  23. filthyfrog
    Much love, Tobes. Keep those Power 50s coming. Michael, I think you should learn a lesson from Lyle Overbay and take over Toby's number 11. Or is it 50?
  24. filthyfrog
    I was an ESPN transfer. God, I can't imagine going back to that mess.
  25. filthyfrog
    Toby, your prediction of the Cap'n going to Brevard County intrigues me. I had pretty much taken it to be fact that he'd be heading to Huntsville, based on the poster who heard it from Palmisano himself. I realize that could just be over-confidence from Lou, but I was wondering if you made that prediction based more on where you think he will go or where you think he should go. I personally would like to see him start the season in A+. He hit well in Beloit, but I think we all would have liked to see him hit a little better. I'm a little nervous about him (or anybody) skipping a level into one of the toughest hitter's leagues. The jump is hard enough from A+. Trying it from low A seems like asking for trouble.
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