tmwiese55

Yup and Jimmy didn't suck either, not great at the top top level but he didn't suck. The Kaep stuff is irrelevant, whole different team, coaches, everything and its been 10 years. The Jimmy SB loss was in 2019. 2020 they went 6-10, 21 10-7, then 2022 they started 7-4 before Purdy. Since then they have lost what 3-4 games in which Purdy didn't get hurt? Can't really rip them for no SB with Purdy when he's played 1 year and got hurt in the game. It has been a clear step up and not as easy as any idiot can step in and do it. If he craps the bed this weekend at home, sure he has to take the heat like any qb who does that at home in a title game. But folks who've been saying he'll crap the bed also shouldn't act like it proves them right when they've been wrong like 30 weeks leading up to it. Also, most of the elite elite guys have done it too, as we saw too many times here in GB Yea pretty much agree on your second paragraph. I said something similar how much harder that is to scout, see, measure, etc. Think you nailed that. Guess I'm saying now that a guy has shown he has all that it seems off to continue to slander him because he doesn't have a Jamarcus Russell cannon. I can't believe Purdy drafted where he was can nail those very difficult deep outs dropped in between zones, but he does. Those are the real test if their arms are good enough, if they can make that throw. Or that one he had in the 4th vs us over the middle dropped into the zone. But yea as I said I'm not saying he can 'be the team' like Mahomes/Rodgers, he just doesn't have that arm talent. But he has enough of it that being super high IQ can be a good qb. It'll be interesting how he handles the contract, maybe realize his limitations and not demand 50 mil. Easy for us to say when its not our money, but there is some possibility you could end up making more by taking less, doing well, keep making that every year. Take the big one, team goes downhill, they might cut you to get out of the contract so you lose all the non gtd money. Next thing you know you're bouncing around like your Wentz's, Jimmy, etc types.

Nowhere did I say that. I'm saying people don't value it enough I would guess because its harder to know, scout, see etc. Of course the arm talent can still have the IQ as we've seen time and again. But often in many sports the pure physical stuff gets too much value given to it. And QB being the likely most cerebral spot in all sports it probably has more value there than in any other. People get enamored with the Jamarcus Russell Ryan Leaf tools and forget to look at if they actually know what they're doing. But just like you said there, they had a 30 mil FA QB and a top 5 draft pick and they didn't get the results he's getting, so the whole you can put anyone in there mindset is too far. That's really all I was getting at, the guy is good and No you can't just grab Trace McSorely and get the same results like people attacking him talk like. Being the like 9th best QB is good, it shouldn't be mocked. That's it, I agree with ya'll he is almost for sure not at the top top Mahomes/Rodgers/Manning level. But there is nothing wrong with being in the next group and that doesn't mean he's a fraud or sucks. None of us who've commented here are really disagreeing or going too far in either extreme here, think we're all on the same page overall. I'm really not talking about you, probably more the 'generic hater' type out there. And of course our bubble being GB fans and rivals is gonna be skewed with a few too many folks like that

So having a few bad games is only a huge red flag if you're drafted in the 7th round. Mahomes has had those too. Also, the team he took over last year was 7-4, they didn't lose another game until he got hurt. Then this year leads them to 1 seed and NFC championship again while playing great. Its not as easy its being made out to be just because he was drafted in the 7th rd. And yea last night he was not great, but its a massive rainstorm. Man just wish they pick 6d that one right away, whole different game if so. Being very high IQ like he is doesn't get near as much credit or attention as the guy who throws the ball harder. Its not a big deal or worth arguing, it's not like you who've commended specifically are overly bashing and my comment wasn't directed at anyone. And its not like I'm saying he's elite elite where you can let everyone go around him and he's going to carry them like Rodgers/Mahomes level guys. Just in general I saw a sentiment here and other spots almost rooting against the guy and so many comments on how he actually sucks, is a fraud etc. Granted its skewed by the biased GB fans who are so spoiled, but still. At some point folks have to accepts this isn't a fluke.

Sure. But that's also what everyone said about Brady when he rode the great D to the first SB. Other than being drafted in the 7th rd what about what he does and can do out there gets him this negative rap? Accuracy is top notch, arm is good enough but not great, brain/prep/IQ is elite, adequately mobile. If he was drafted in 1st rd doing the exact same thing no one would be questioning it. But yes like any of the not elite elite guys, once he gets a big contract it will make it much harder to win. Even truly elite guys like Rodgers it gets extremely difficult to win at that point, if you're in the tier below that like Purdy probably is it gets even harder. Like I mentioned, I'm curious if he'll be savvy and take a say 25 mil deal instead of holding them to the coals for 50 mil. That was the smartest thing Brady ever did that made him the GOAT, but of course he had the quirk of having a wife with 500 mil. IF Brady was taking Rodgers level money so they had to lose 2-3 other starters would they have gotten that many SBs, probably not.

Especially with Det or TB being such winnable games. There isn't some juggernaut waiting for them like in most years.

Ran through this quick a bit. For the most part everyone is spot on. But for all the Love sucked and so did Purdy. Sure, but guys it was a full on rainstorm the whole game. Cut some slack. Its rather impressive these days that in spite of that going on teams are still able to come out and throw the ball, say 25 years ago they didn't do that. but you have to accept that accuracy is gonna be a bit off. That said, Loves last throw was a terrible decision, nothing to do with rain. Just no need to force it like that yet. Throw that away and you still have a very good shot at a FG. Other than that I thought he was 'fine' given the conditions. Two 3rd downs in the 2H were smaller overlooked ones you can probably chalk up to the rain, first the interception was just a bit off which happens with rain. Frustrating because good chance they get the first if he makes the throw. And I think the next possession he had a dump off to Jones on 3rd that he was off on that would've been an easy 1st. Short throws so if you wanna be considered 'the man' you still have to make them but the ball slipping a bit in the rain happens. Either of those plays goes different, changes the course of the game big time. Also, I know its a GB board and its biased. But I don't get the hate on Purdy. Should be a guy to root for, other than being on a rival. And this constant talk like he actually sucks seems off. Keep saying he sucks and will show it, eventually he will have a bad game and you can say "told ya", you know while ignoring you've been wrong for like 20 weeks before it. At some point you just have to accept the guy is good. Is he gonna be Rodgers/Mahomes level? No but physically neither was Brady and we saw what he did. And you can't do what he's done for 1.5 seasons and not be good. He's calm, can make all the throws, very smart knows exactly where to go with the balls, has enough mobility. It will for sure be harder for them if you have to pay him 40 mil but there's nothing wrong with being a top 10ish qb instead of top 3. The guy doesn't suck. Maybe he'll be a bit savvy and take less money to keep a good team around him, we'll see.

I know this is generally dumb because results are results, and you can't just take out the worst games of everyone. But if you take out that what 5ish week stretch from Hader in 2022 before and right after the trade he probably moves drastically up those lists. That was a complete blip on the radar for some unknown reason, I'd assume pitch tipping or something, then he got it fixed and went right back to complete domination. I'm just saying that monthish stretch was fluky. And it was so drastically bad due to whatever was going on that it hurt his number moreso than when guys just have 2-3 bad games here or there. It wasn't just bad luck of a 2 or 3 run homer at a bad time in games close together like is normal so it inflated numbers more. Good for him. And as much as its too much for a closer in general, I would oddly also view it some of the safest money spent this offseason. Basically barring injury you have extreme confidence he's going to be very good for the next few years, you're just paying him a bit too much. And 5 years doesn't have that massive backend drag like most of these 7//8+ year deals for hitters or starting pitchers. And think of the contracts guys like Jansen, Kimbrell, types have gotten the last few years in spite of being shaky for years now. He's a better deal than them. Bit surprising Houston did this as a team that has let so many of their guys go rather than pay.

Yes of course a lot for a reliever but he has fairly clearly been the best one the last chunk of years. Fairly surprised with how nuts LAD have gone seeming doing all they can to lock in a couple WSs that they didn't beat this offer since BP has been their only weakness since Jansen fell off.

Right. And this year's class after Ohtani (and I guess the Japanese P) is weak so what you said really comes in to play. You can likely get Chapman level hitting from a guy coming up out of AAA for 600K. Meanwhile the players/agents are pushing for their guys lottery ticket payout so there is a big disparity. Seems like the offseason has gotten slower and moved back for a while already, but throw in that these guys aren't that good while demanding their big payday and here we are. Only about a month to ST so things will have to get done soon

Not sure if it was mentioned here or not but I saw a joke that GB has more playoff wins at At&T/Cowboys Stadium than Dallas does. I assume that is true and find it hilarious. Stadium opened in 2009

Minor note on the topic as I've seen it mentioned so many times. But the Yankees dynasty late 90s wasn't purely on the back of FAs. It was primarily done with their own guys and them actually finally having the smarts to hold them instead of trade as prospects. Did a quick looks up: 1998 payrolls they were #2 at 63 mil. The top 10 teams only ranted from 70-50 mil. 1997: #1 at 59 mil. 2 was 55. Top 10 only ranted from 59-45 mil. 99 and 00 is when they and those around them starts to tick up and then it explodes after that and then they and Bos start going bananas. But since then NY only has 1 WS, all the ridiculous FA money and spending since then has only gotten 1 title. I guess I'm just saying its often overlooked the core of that Yanks team was homegrown or brought up with them when young. And without doing a bunch of digging I would guess there was a structural change regarding finances that let them and the other big markets explode, top of my head it would be their local TV contract as cable TV exploded into every house in the late 90s/early 00s rather than being a luxury beforehand.

In such a scenario if Hoskins has played well and we're not really contenders in '25 you can also trade him at that deadline. You save some millions and get at least a couple prospects back

Good joke. Don't need to sidetrack this thread with how heated Hiura discussions get here. But really I don't see why a crap team like KC, Oak, etc doesn't give him league min. Try to coach him up, let him play the first 2 months and hope for the best, what do you have to lose.

Also did not realize he had that good of a year. Also didn't realize his contract was that short. Of course who knows if he had any interest in MKE but in hindsight this would be one to chalk up in the missed opportunity category. He essentially cost about what Winker did last year and you would've had for two years. Most of the pipe dream signings are unrealistic, this is one they could've done last year even if they needed to tack on a bit more to come to MKE, and theoretically it would've worked out so far. Now though, you're having to give stuff up for only 1 year and then you're looking at what do with a 32 year old FA who likely wants a 2-3 year deal (assuming he plays fine next year).

Kind of a surprising deal for Hernandez to take. Could be relevant to us in the discussion on other bats like Hoskins, Soler, Martinez etc. I've said in Hoskins talks that I guessed his deal to be more than the 2/36 ballpark thrown out. Seeing someone take this 1 year deal hold out some hope that I'm wrong and at least one of these guys could be had on a year if they keep Burnes and go for it.

Right. He and Haase provide the depth needed so if an injury happens the prospect doesn't need to be called up. First, because if he's backup he wont' be playing much. And second, to not start his clock. It wouldn't surprise with 4 years left of Contreras that they'd want to push the prospect all the way to next year for one less year of overlap on their control. Sucks for him but that's the business.

Wait, all prospects don't work out? My mind's been blown

Essentially this terrible argument comes to that, every large long term deal we've given out to players in their 30s has turned out badly. The vast majority of them throughout all of baseball turn out badly, and many of them horribly. And someone is advocating that we need to MORE of those and they're cheap and stupid if they don't. Its just a flat out terrible argument and nothing one can do about. For example on better routes in the names thrown out, rather than give out what's likely a terrible contract to Chapman. The smart move is to find the next Chapman and acquire him like Tor did when they got Chapman (I didn't look at the prospects value, I mean on the proven player/controlled for fair money aspect). This is what MKE should be targeting at 3B, a Chapman of 3 years ago or essentially the 1B/3B version of Contreras. They tried similar with Tellez and it kinda worked but didn't end up being sustainable, hopefully the next one is better and a bit more proven if they can find one. Personally, I hope the Cubs give Chapman a 6/150 type deal.

Assume Burnes/Williams are here this year so 'going for it', and you don't have negative vibes on Burnes attitude. A 31 year old coming off a torn ACL and missed a full year. Sure it is what is making him possible for MKE but it is still not ideal. Personally I probably wanna quit at the 2/36-40 area. But I agree with you that won't get it done. So considering the 'go for it a bit mentality, the money freed up with no Wood and the 8 mil they've been spending on vet DH types, along with what others pointed out that after Burnes is gone there is no big commitments. So I could probably grit my teeth and add the 3rd year in comparable years amounts. I would be very skeptical on that deal and do think it ends up bad, but I get the idea of trying to do something in this last year of going for it. Heck, if it helped get the deal done I'd probably figure out some kind of opt out stuff, could be a win if we get a good year or two from him for fair value. He wins by getting out and locking in a longer term deal elsewhere and we avoid having to pay out crap years as he ages. Maybe that could keep us from having to give the 3rd or 4th year if we give opt out after 1 year.

They also did free up a comparable salary slot with having lost Woodruff. So that's gone, the 8 mil slot of the last few years for the vet DH type is free as of now, the 8ish mil dump with Hauser/Taylor. A 1-2 year deal of that kind seems in the budget if they do keep Burnes and 'go for it'. The question is if there is a player of that caliber willing to take it like Moose/Grandall did. My guess is Hoskins does better than that and they end up with another 8ish mil type guy in the Santana vein.

Feel like offseasons have been slower and later for a while now so this isn't so rare. OTOH, maybe its possible teams realized what many of us here did several weeks ago, that this years FA class is quite bad after Ohtani and the new Japanese P (since he's only 25). I think I said something in the Counsell/Cubs discussions that I hope the Cubs do blow their FA wad this year on this crop. The mediocre players are expecting their lottery payouts and the teams are balking at it since they're not that good, plus many big spenders gave out ridiculous contracts the last couple offseasons they're regretting. Oh wait, it must be collusion and if we don't see it we're crazy (for those that remember that fun time)

Think Sveum's post nailed it well. The key point will be whether Burnes/Williams are traded. All these moves are independent of that as even if those two are gone the Brewers goal will still be to field a competitive team with hopes of making the playoffs due to their division being so weak. If they do keep them, well you go from competitive team with a chance to win up to the favorite expecting to win. This isn't like the NBA where if you're not 'going for it' you just punt everything and try to lose. The Brewers stated goals since Stearns has been to be steadily competitive every year, seems that's the route they're going regardless of Burnes/Williams. These fringe moves are what they would be doing in either route. They are also very reliant on gameday attendance so a blatant tear down attempt to lose is very unlikely.

Well no I didn't say they were the only team. I said they were doing it best while also having the most money to spend. Houston would be #2 and some could argue number 1 since they don't have unlimited money. I also was just coming back to point out how was LAD able to do this this offseason? They planned for it years in advance by not having bad contracts, basically by not chasing the shiny object every year approach you're advocating for here. They had targeted Ohtani 2-3 years back and planned for this the whole time. This is why they let all those guys go I listed, so they could get under the tax (I think they accomplished that for one year) and so they could afford this. So, yes if they do get 2-3 titles out of this it was their responsibility/diligence to not go "all in" every year the last 3 years that allowed it. If they had Machado contract, Seager contract, a terrible Kershaw contract, terrible Bellinger contract, etc they wouldn't have been able to do this. And Yes, it would still be a bad contract unless he was the key in getting the Japanese pitcher too and he's awesome and key to winning. If Ohtani hits well of course that's great, but they could've gotten that from someone else for cheaper which won't potentially cripple them down the line. Like if he doesn't really pitch again substantially they could've signed another top level hitter like him for half as much total money (say they would've gotten Harper instead, or Soto). But like I said, this is a great loophole they've found so its really tough to comment or give much opinion say how much that contract will hurt them so far down the line with inflation and who knows how the economics of baseball look down then. It is such an unknown.

The key to this in the future will probably be the players being open to an NFL/NBA style system. As of now it seems they're against it because it would kill the massive lottery style paydays like have been happening. Of course it would all come down to how much money is guaranteed and what split they get, but in general there should be a case to be made that wins a players vote because a system like that would shift the money from very few of them getting those megadeals to more of the second tier/middle class players being paid more. And presumably it would alter the first few years pay so they're not so drastically underpaid then, and would pay more for minor leagues too. Essentially a shift to more even distribution of wealth among players instead of the massive gaps now. In theory, majority of players should vote for that since very few get the mega deals. There's flaws in the NBA setup but that is what they've gotten right from the players perspective. Instead of LBJ making 100 mil the last 20 years (like he would've in a true open market) the other 70 mil gets spread out to 2-3 other players.

And you're missing that the shiny object you're attracted to doesn't allow you to see that its a horrible move that will hurt you down the line. This has been the result over and over and over and over in baseball. Yet you're mad that we don't want to repeat it. This is a deviation for LAD from what they've been doing. We'll see how it plays out. But like I said, they have been the ones playing it correctly the whole time so I don't know how using them as an example is some kind of 'proving it' for you. IMO, if Ohtani doesn't pitch more than 2-3 years that will be a bad contract. that said, they did find a loophole/gap in the system to try to exploit. Kudos for figuring it out, like I said the're the best run team with unlimited money at the same time. Perhaps you should be a fan of theirs.