MrTPlush

I like me some upsets and some cinderellas....but I hope it isn't like last year. I personally didn't care for 4+ seed Final Four that featured a bunch of schools people didn't care about. All fun and games until upsets peg FAU and SDSU against each other...a game any other time of year you would be lucky to find on ESPN+, let alone national TV.

Yup, pushing 30 and he was injured more often than not last year. That’s just not a good trend to depend on. When healthy, I’d take him over Jacob’s…but his days will quickly be numbered. Jacob’s can give long term stability too…Jones would have just put us in the same problem a year from now.

I would imagine Aaron Jones is good as gone. He isn't that different than Jacobs...and is certainly not as young and probably worse for injuries. Why spend the money on him at this point, honestly?

Considering he has all six years left of control, no, he isn't very young. That puts him at reaching FA at 29, with a contract starting at age 30. That is an okay age to hit FA...but if he signed an extension his next potential FA time is dramatically worse. If Quero got to debut this year and start his clock, an extension would be a lot more mutually beneficial because he could give up 8 years of control and still hit FA at 30. He would get the safety net contract and still have time to get a massive payday if he pans out. Hardly a loss at that point. The fact central American players seem to sign early extensions probably has a lot to do with the fact their careers start so early. Having the ability to get into MiLB ball at a younger age (and the camps in their early-mid teen years) is an insane benefit over US players. Chourio signed a massive contract and will still easily hit FA at 30 years old, with a chance at another massive payday. If Sal Frelick signed the same extension he would hit FA at 34, big payday opportunity will never exist. It makes no sense to sign Frelick for anything less than 8 years, but to him, anything more than 6 years is really unattractive to him.

The rotation is awful. 1) The ace is Freddy Peralta...a guy we hope can give us a lengthy healthy season with maybe a mid 3 ERA. Past that it nosedives into inexperienced guys that have basically never had a real full season of being a starter at the MLB level. 2) We would dearly need a healthy season from Miley that continues to defy age. Yet, here we are, already hurt. 3) Ashby needs to be healthy and take a big step forward. 4 and 5) If the above three could happen then we could afford some middling performance here. Think 2023 Colin Rea output level. Health would be ideal...we probably can't afford spot starters repping 5-6 ERA stuff. I doubt this rotation will be very pretty. Gotta hope the offense is dramatically better than last year, which is a lot more likely than this rotation impressing.

The difference is, Lucroy was kinda a nothing burger back then. They extended him because they figured he was at worst a average-ish catcher. Something nice to have locked up so you aren’t shopping for a catcher each offseason at the cost of your pitchers learning a new guy each year. There was virtually no risk because the extension was so brutally cheap. I think they only ended up buying out a single FA year. It was kinda a no brainer for Lucroy as he had a LONG way to go to even hit arbitration and his track record was so minimal it would take very little poor play to potentially never see MLB play again. Contreras is only a year away from arbitration now and put up a full season of elite play at the plate and dramatically improved his defense…the later of which is largely how we managed to acquire him so cheaply. Regardless of his performance this year, he will make a few million in arby next year and even regardless of his 2025 play we (or someone else) will pay him millions again. He already has financial security…not a ton, but definitely pretty risk free millions ahead. Would he take a tiny extension to bank tens of millions? Possibly, probably the last offseason with a chance to do it. The problem is, I’m sure he and his agent know how catchers age. Getting to FA at 29 versus 31 is a dramatic difference. Not only is it a smaller payday…but that is a long two years to keep producing as a catcher. And for the Brewers, if you were going to do an extension, why would it be Contreras? You have Quero right behind him, wouldn’t it be better for us to try and lock up someone else? It doesn’t seem like either side would be highly motivated to make it happen.

I mean, is he going to take $25mil over 8 years? Just to hit FA in his 30s?

He will be 29 when he hits FA. Actually, I think the first year of a new contract would be his age 30 season. William Contreras is a classic example of the kind of player the Brewers have wisely just flat out refused to even entertain an extension for. Lucroy was never offered a contract, nor was Hader. We don't need to be handing out big contracts to 30+ year old catchers/relievers.

Depends on what the extension is. He has a high floor, but his odds of being at his floor versus an All-Star are WAY higher than it is for a guy in the OF. Not to mention catcher salaries are notably less than most positions. At the start of last year there were only 4 catchers in baseball set to make north of $10mil. Without looking I would have to guess a 'meh' starting catcher propped up by his defense doesn't fair very well in arbitration, hypothetically. 8/$35mil? Plus, two generous option years like Chourio? Even $35mil guaranteed feels like a bit too much for a catcher. Problem with Abner Uribe is the fact he isn't very young...he is pretty old honestly. Any extension would spill into his 30s... relievers are already fickle as it is...let alone at 30+. It would have to be a pretty darn cheap extension with the goal really just hoping to avoid $10mil+ reliever salaries in his arby years.

Do you know how many of MLB's premier players come from poor central American backgrounds? Yet almost all of them never sign a cheap extension before or very very early in their MLB careers. I'm actually not sure this logic is as sound as it appears on paper. The average monthly salary is $175 in Venezuela, a guy from there would have more money than he would ever need before he hit arbitration. Even at 3x the average salary, that $200k bonus would last a guy two decades. If Quero's floor is a MLB back-up catcher due to his defense (probably accurate assuming he can at least get near a .700 OPS), then he is already set for life and the next two generations behind him. These early extensions honestly make more sense for someone in the US because a $200k bonus would last you a few years, it would last a few decades in Venezuela.

Why does Quero have extension potential? Am I missing some news? I love Quero and I was on the Quero bandwagon way before most...but catching prospects can be pretty darn fickle. There have been plenty of massively hyped can't miss bats from catching prospects that were massive flops. Mike Zunio, Jesus Montero, and Fransisco Mejia come to mind. Just a brutally rough position to make the majors and excel offensively getting beat up day after day. That being said, I can't imagine a trade scenario where I would ship him off. Would have to be much like the Yelich trade.

Braun and Yelich both would have made exponentially less had they gone to FA. They signed those extensions here because we were the only team that could offer them. It was sign with the Brewers or make tens of millions less hoping you produce 3 more years. One was probably insuring against getting caught for cheating and the other probably wasn’t feeling confident after a knee injury (or something else, who knows). Regardless, neither wanted to gamble for 3+ years more. I’ll think someone is loyal when they sign an extension like that in FA, not 3+ years prior.

Most experts had him tabbed at about $150mil this offseason, probably along the lines of that 7 year length. Of course, that was always a bit iffy considering the last few years before '23. I am guessing the Cubs offer wasn't the highest amount of money. Risking almost $100mil to hope it is a 1/$30mil deal isn't that great for the Cubs. It is like the Hoskins deal on steroids. I would guess he probably could have gotten 6/$108mil+ from someone. The Cubs likely offered and preferred him to take a much longer deal with a lower AAV. If he has another great year, 2023 doesn't seem as fluky and the 21/22 seasons become much more of a blip. 6/$150mil at worst, probably a good chance north of $200mil. He maybe risked $30mil or so for a chance to bank $100mil+ with another good year. For a guy that has already made $60mil in his career and could sign a 1/$30mil contract with a $50mil insurance policy attached to it...not bad.

Why would it be a huge mistake? Even if he pops off for a low .800 OPS, he would easily change that 2/$50mil left on his deal to $150mil+. The only reason he didn't get $200mil+ is because of the two terrible years prior to 2023. If he is anything above average, he is going to rip up that deal and get a huge contract. He would STILL be playing a year of a new contract in his 20s. If he opts out, he clearly played well enough to find a big time contract. I agree he won't ever sign for 10 years...but he could easily net a 5-6 year contract...maybe even 7-8 if he repeated close to his '23 numbers.

The only people that care about Counsell burning a bridge are Brewers fans....Counsell doesn't care. I don't know why it is still a hot button issue of how much he burned that bridge and comparing to some other city lifers. News flash: Counsell doesn't care.

The deal is terrible from a financial standpoint for performance. If everyone voted on their realistic ceiling for Woodruff in 2025 they would probably tab that around his $17.5mil price tag. Considering the massive risk here and the likelihood he doesn't manage that ceiling, the deal is pretty terrible. We would be lucky to break even. HOWEVER #1 This deal is certainly beyond money. Players are doing circles around the spring training complex about how happy they are to just have Woodruff around. He is an A+ personality to have around...especially around younger players. Fans are mostly ecstatic to pay a guy to collect a check in the dugout. After an offseason that saw Counsell leaving and Burnes being traded...I wouldn't underrate the importance of this. #2 The money is kind of irrelevant from a payroll standpoint. It is the equivalent to the Dodgers overpaying some star. The deal always sucks in the end, but they don't care, their payroll can absorb it like it is nothing. The Brewers payroll the upcoming years is going to absorb this money like it is nothing. If this was like 2019, this would be a different story...but our payroll is in a very different situation these days. The alternative here is spending the money on nothing and Attanasio investing it into a soccer team or something.

The only way Woodruff returns in 2026 is if he ends up competent but very back end type starter in 2025. Like bad enough he is only worth like 2/$15mil on the open market MAX. At that point you could find some odd mutual interest where the Brewers figure $10mil over one year isn’t a big deal with some upside and Woodruff feels he was shaking off rust and believes he can be mid rotation or better in 2026 to parlay into a much more lucrative long term deal. It would take the perfect storm of production (not too much not too less), Brewers in a good mood, and Woodruff in a good mood. It isn’t impossible, but it takes some mental gymnastics to even come up with a theory. Even then, it doesn’t change the fact the deal is set up this way to simply space out the money and neither side has any expectation that the mutual option will actually come into play.

That article is waaay longer and different than it was this morning. I believe earlier it pretty much said no.

I believe it is possible it will still be under the Bally name all year...probably not enough time to figure out the Amazon.com logistics etc.

At least we know what was holding it up all this time.

Basically never. Nearly every historical example involves a really old player that basically has no interest in going somewhere else (played with one team really long), the option is close enough to market value, and both sides consider it good enough. Brewers have one of the very rare accepted mutual options. That was Aramis Ramirez, who only signed with us because his list of teams he would consider were midwest teams only. So, it made sense for both sides. In the case of Woodruff, it is VERY obvious it exists only to put most of the money in 2026 where our payroll has basically no money committed to it at the moment. There is essentially zero chance Woodruff would be worth $10mil and would not go to FA to get a multi-year deal...probably his only decent chance to get one left.

Post-Surgery Pitch Mix: Eephus

So you have one of those websites through a hosting site, but it uses their site URL...basically? Whatever the hosting site is should have an option to buy the domain through them or should have a way for you to buy it elsewhere and port it in.

Good, 3/4 of those guys shouldn't even be in the conversation to be on the OD roster.