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MrTPlush

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Everything posted by MrTPlush

  1. Trevor Story has an OPS+ of 114 for what it is worth. Adjusted for his ballpark. I would say Trevor Story would still be pretty darn valuable at Miller Park, 3 WAR guy or so?
  2. Yah, you could make an argument with Khris Davis and Scooter Gennett that maybe they could have done things different...but Garrett Cooper? That is really stretching it to the point one is just complaining to complain without considering the situation at the time and the future.
  3. He has a BABIP of .438. I don't really care how much loud contact you make...that is waaay inflated. Add in his K% north of 30% and his .327 average is a huge mirage. It isn't like his K% has dropped much either, still nearly 30% the last month. Last two weeks...just as bad. Enjoy it while it lasts because Hiura is probably going to have a hard fall back down to earth eventually. Great player, great future, and great start to his career...but his numbers right now have a whole lot of luck inducing them. There is really nothing at all in Hiura's numbers that has to do with luck based on actual outcomes over a small sample size - no doubt the BABIP will drop at some point, but if that drop happens along with seeing even a slight drop in K rate and increased BB rate, his OPS won't be that impacted. I can think of only a couple base hits Hiura has had resulting from weak contact, and quite a few more loud outs or hard hit grounders right at fielders. The BABIP will drop and normalize after more ABs, as will the batting average - but I fully expect an established Hiura to be a consistent 0.900 OPS player, which I guess would be a hard fall back down considering his MLB production to date is that of a 1.000 OPS player. The small sample allows him to hold a higher BABIP to some extent. But it is luck. He is lucky more of his hits aren't getting caught. His hard hit % is similar to Yelich's. Yelich has a BABIP almost .100 points lower. This also despite striking out 33% less than Hiura and being faster than Hiura. All this and their BA is almost identical? It isn't a knock on Hiura, I think he has been amazing so far and will be for a long time. That being said his batting average probably shouldn't even be sniffing .300. It is hard to say where his BABIP will tend to float around, but he isn't that fast so .375ish is probably a lofty expectation. He probably will end up around .340 or so on average. Long term, yes, I think he can have a .900 OPS consistently. However, I would imagine some kind of growing pain reality check eventually and then he works his way back up.
  4. He has a BABIP of .438. I don't really care how much loud contact you make...that is waaay inflated. Add in his K% north of 30% and his .327 average is a huge mirage. It isn't like his K% has dropped much either, still nearly 30% the last month. Last two weeks...just as bad. Enjoy it while it lasts because Hiura is probably going to have a hard fall back down to earth eventually. Great player, great future, and great start to his career...but his numbers right now have a whole lot of luck inducing them.
  5. Ryan Braun: "Hold my Beer." For real...I'm pretty sure he swung at ball 4. I get it's lefty on lefty, but he might walk Thames too. No reason to try and hit ball 4 there. Ball 4....close, but a ball. Even if called a strike he knows another fastball is coming on the next pitch. Why swing at one low and away?
  6. Too long. Over two hours, for sure, including generating a spreadsheet to use in Excel. But it's not atypical for the kind of stuff I think about that's not readily available from BBR or Fangraphs. I enjoy it. I mean I give you credit, it looks pretty nice. Usually when someone decides to go on a rant and make their own thread it is not of such quality. Good portfolio piece when you apply for a Fangraphs writing job.
  7. It is pretty amazing. Has he had even one signing that was really really good? Or via trade? I guess Andrew Swarzak was a pretty nice addition. I guess giving Neftali Feliz $5.5mil was a good sign of what Stearns knows about building a bullpen.
  8. I will spare acting like I am an expert on giant sports franchise finances/taxing, but if they start banking/saving money every year I am guessing it is going to get taxed...and probably quite a bit. I think that is why we saw them buy the Mudcats, upgrade Maryvale, and upgrade the food service. Probably doesn't get taxed the same way if they put it into the business etc. Is it really surprising all those things started when the Brewers payroll was rock bottom? I don't think so. There was likely a financial purpose at the time to do it.
  9. That is a cool idea, but WHOA SWARMING ANTS. I can handle a small number of ants but en masse it's gross. Could you enclose the camera in a ziploc bag, or would that distort the image too much? The lens, laser, and infrared flash would all have to be uncovered so that would be pretty tough. The ants don't bug me a ton, but I more worried the bears are going to wack the heck out of it. They already investigate the camera as is...if the ants start laying egg/larvae in there they will really mess with it for a tasty snack. Ironically I also have an ant problem at work. The main place I usually am is an older building with older windows to match. There are nice gaps in the window trim. These ants hide in the trim until the sun hits the window in the afternoon and then they, literally, come out of the woodworks. I mentioned it to the place, but hundreds of ants still come out every time I am there. Not sure what I ever did to ants...but jeez.
  10. Marketing wise, yes, I have known quite a few that have checked out forums/Facebook/etc. It is more social media now though and not so much online boards. Before social media really took off these board were a handy way to see what people thought about things.
  11. Well, Jed Bradley and Taylor Jungmann we’re first round picks. Teams don’t draft starting pitchers in the top third of the first round with merely the hope they make it to the majors. The expectations are those pitchers will advance to the major leagues and pitch meaningful innings. That Bradley and Jungmann were complete busts resulted in the team making moves like signing Matt Garza and trading for Chase Anderson, for example, to shore up their rotation. Jed Bradley was just an awful pick. He was not top half of the first round material. Taylor Jungmann was pretty similar in a guy who really didn't have much of a ceiling. I remember one outlet calling him #2 potential, but most people thought we took two mid-rotation at best arms. If I was picking draft busts neither of these guys would be near the top of my list. More like a total bust for whoever picked them. Which if I recall was partially influenced by Attanasio wanting to "win now" and get guys they thought could get to the MLB level fast. Also the Chase Anderson trade was fantastic. He has already compiled 7.5 WAR as a Brewer. Not mention it also netted Isan Diaz (traded to get Yelich) and Aaron Hill...who was later traded to acquire Aaron Wilkerson. Not bad for a player we were essentially just trying to move on from in Jean Segura.
  12. I mean Rickie Weeks was essentially suppose to be what Hiura is with speed/SBs. While I think he was still a solid contributor (especially before injuries destroyed him)...that is a far cry from what people expected. Ben Sheets....yah, tough crowd.
  13. You guys are listing the wrong players: Lewis Brinson: Got us Yelich so cant say he ever got a chance to show us what he can do. Jonathan Villar: Pretty sure people didn’t expect much. Jonathan Schoop: I guess you could put him, but most hated that trade. So not sure he really failed expectations that much. We need the true high expectation flops! I haven’t watch the Brewers terribly long though so getting past the flops of Mark Rogers, Angel Salome, and Manny Parra would be kinda tough. I’d guess most on the all-time list should be guys who were on the MLB team or got close. Flopped draft pick from the get go can only have so many expectations to start.
  14. Real real generous saying that. Thames should never play OF.
  15. Lol there is no added security.
  16. You mean the one in the picture if you click the link?
  17. You guys are trying to ignore the loss by mentioning how we won't really need a 5th starter. If that is the case think of it like this: Our 4th starter (now) Chacin now has to pitch where we could have dumped him to bullpen duties if we still had Woodruff. It also kills depth regardless of our need for 5 guys or not. With all the off days we now will keep Chacin pitching all the time instead of Woodruff. That hurts.
  18. One should look at the number of times in recent years the best team even made the World Series. 2018: Red Sox, won WS Brewers, failed to make WS 2017: Indians, failed to make NLCS (lost to WC team) Dodgers, lost WS 2016: Rangers, swept in NLDS (by WC team) Cubs, won WS 2015: Royals, won WS Cardinals, lost in NLDS (by WC team) 2014: Angels, lost in NLDS (by WC team) Nationals, lost in NLDS (by WC team...WC WON WORLD SERIES) 2013: Red Sox, won WS Cardinals, made WS 2012: Yankees, lost in NLCS Nationals, lost in NLCS 6 times the #1 seed has made it to the World Series under the current system. 5 times the WC team has beaten the #1 seed under the current system. 57% of #1 seeds never reach the World Series So please, can we stop acting like the Dodgers are assured to just steamroll the NL in the postseason. They may do so...and have a much better chance than a typical #1 as they are pretty elite, but they are not unbeatable...not even close.
  19. Not saying Stroman isn't good and wouldn't be a notable upgrade, but is he really a "sell a huge chunk of the farm" kind of guy? His stats really don't blow you a way and I don't think it is fluky 2/4 of the last four years he had a pretty bad ERA. I suppose the trade offer isn't outlandish, but seems like a steep price to pay 1 1/3 years of control. FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Stroman: 3.61 1.249 8.6 0.8 2.6 7.1 2.74 : 4.15 1.241 8.1 1.2 3.0 8.8 2.89
  20. Everyone is losing their minds because someone hit a grand slam to even set that up. If Saladino doesn't hit that it is probably just the typical debbie downer attitude.
  21. I think it is pretty unlikely they would actually make him the 4th OFer. I bet they think of him more highly than that. He can easily just wait for an injury and get a real starting gig next year. I don't think being a 4th OFer does him any good.
  22. I enjoy doing some volunteer work from time to time and one of the things I do is host a trail camera for the DNR (real cool project they are doing). I opted to put it on some public land and they obviously require it to be in a security housing box. Well I go to check it for the first time after about six weeks and to my unfortunate realization the security box is a great place for ants to build a home. Sucker is just loaded with itty bitty ants building their forever home. Trying to change out the batteries/card was real fun when I kept having ants trying to crawl up my arms. I guess you could say, something was bugging me. Thinking I might bring some ant killer to spray the box/area next time. It is a cool program though for anyone interested. They will send you all the supplies (camera, rechargeable batteries, etc.) free of charge to participate.
  23. Why are we talking about their overall record? Does Sonny Gray pitch every night? They have an ace on the mound tonight and their offense, while overall not great this year, has some punch when they feel like it.
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