paul253
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Everything posted by paul253
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Team by team analysis of Fielder trade partners
paul253 replied to NYChez's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
As it stands right now, they have one of the best offenses in baseball. And how have we been doing the past few years with that offense? I have no reason to believe that the Brewers can't compete if they can get a #1/#2 pitcher to push Wolf to 3, and pick up someone to fill the #4 hole with upside. I think a lot of people would agree with you here, but you seem to be underestimating how hard this is going to be. Where exactly is this #1 or #2 pitcher going to come from? I see one and only one option-Greinke, and even this seems like a pipe dream right now. Melvin has spent what, 8 years trying to find an ace? I have my doubts that he'll even be able to find the #4 with upside at this point? We should take whatever we can get for him and move on. I think you need to add more to this statement to make it more accurate. My view is something like this: "We should take what we can get for him right now BECAUSE we are not likely to win with him in 2011, he is almost assured of leaving after this season, and I believe we are more likely to get players who can help us in the future in a trade than in the draft". Like the previous poster said, people can rag on Daniel Hudson all they want, but the fact is if one of those two draft picks turn into someone like Hudson we'd all be thrilled. The chances of us turning both of those picks into better players than Hudson is pretty small. -
Team by team analysis of Fielder trade partners
paul253 replied to NYChez's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
At some point you need to look towards the future so that you can remain competitive. He has given every indication that he will not re-sign with the Brewers so we can forget that option. I would do the Hudson deal because he is a young cheap pitcher that you control for a number of years...the exact kind of pitcher you wanted to get for Fielder. Yes you can probably draft someone with a higher upside (though not for sure because again, you may end up with the higher of the two picks being in the 30's) but you'd also now have to wait at least four years for them to be major league ready. You also have to deal with the fact that the Brewers have been terrible at developing their own pitching so it's anything but a "for sure" when you take the draft picks. I'd rather take someone like Hudson who you know will at least pitch in the majors, or someone like Rizzo (plus another prospect) who has already had success at the upper levels of the minor leagues than to put all my eggs in the draft basket. I am not suggesting you trade him just because. But look at the offers you have, realize it's the best you're going to do, and pick the best of them. Or do something, like taking prospects vs only major league ready players or offer to pay most of his salary, in order to make those offers better. -
Team by team analysis of Fielder trade partners
paul253 replied to NYChez's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
We need to back off our fixation on longshot prospects, take a deep breath and look at what this guy has done here over the past five years The problem is that it doesn't matter he has done the past five years. The only thing that matters is what people are willing to give up for him. He could be Mickey Mantle but if teams are only willing to give us a #4 starter then he's only worth a #4 starter. Melvin's insistence on two pitchers cost us a chance to get Daniel Hudson. Now his insistence on a major league ready pitcher may cost them a shot at some decent prospects. So in the end, it comes down to what you want to do.....take what you can get for him, or take two draft picks. It'd be nice to know what kind of draft picks you'd get. It could be the #16 pick. It could be the the #45 pick. That's another chance Melvin has to take. -
Team by team analysis of Fielder trade partners
paul253 replied to NYChez's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I just don't see this package that much greater than 2 draft picks. So you're basically saving money and that's about it. Draft picks are so hit and miss though. They could get two pretty good players, but statistically speaking they are more like to miss. I'd rather take two guys who have already had successful minor league seasons. Rizzo has some good looking numbers, and he was fairly young for his league last season. Fuentes numbers suggest he has some things to work on, like making contact, but he is the type of player who could turn into a solid player. Plus, we are all just assuming that we'll get a team's first round pick for Fielder. That didn't happen when we lost Sabathia and there's a chance it may not happen with Fielder either. -
Team by team analysis of Fielder trade partners
paul253 replied to NYChez's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I wonder if Boston would have given up Rizzo and that outfielder for Fielder. That's the kind of deal I think Melvin should start to focus on. -
Team by team analysis of Fielder trade partners
paul253 replied to NYChez's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Looking at who the Padres got for Gonzalez is really frustrating. I realize Baseball America is only one opinion, but according to their recently released Boston Top 10 prospect list, SD go ttheir #1, #3 and #6 prospects. That's a darn good haul for someone that was going to leave after next season anyway. I don't expect Milwaukee to get a return like SD got, but they should be able to get something. What's really holding Milwaukee back is two things. That ***** Scott Boras who absolutely refuses to sign a long term deal with anyone (thanks Scott) and Melvin's insistence on getting a major league ready pitcher. At this point, I am willing to get no pitching in return for Fielder and instead take two position prospects because unless he gets Greinke I don't see any way the Brewers can compete for the playoffs in 2011. The fact is position player wise, Milwaukee's farm system is really weak. We have two high draft picks next season but the draft is really strong in pitching (from what I hear) so I'd love to see two pitchers taken. Getting two high ceiling position players for Fielder may be more realistic and better in the long run for this organization. -
Team by team analysis of Fielder trade partners
paul253 replied to NYChez's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
http://sportsillustrated....lez/index.html?eref=sihp This article says Boston is trying to get A. Gonzalez, and that three other teams (I believe the Nationals, Mariners, and Cubs) are interested as well. I certainly hope Melvin isn't sitting by his phone waiting for it to ring. He should be calling these teams and actively shopping Fielder. What about Fielder to Seattle for Pineda? To Washington for Jordan Zimmerman? Forget the Cubs, they have nobody I like but Baltimore maybe? Heck I'd even call Tampa. If we pay enough of his salary for them and they get two picks in return, it might be possible to get two younger pitchers from them (two of Mcgee, Colome and Torres?) The Brewers should be calling these teams and saying "You'll get Fielder for less than it will take to get Gonzalez. He'll be cheaper to re-sign. And although defensively he's not as good, offensively I believe he is". -
The reasons you gave just show that this is the exact wrong time to offer him a contract extension. We hold no bargaining chips at the table and Boras knows that. I mostly agree with this but just to play devil's advocate couldn't the Brewer's approach Boras and say "Look we can't even get a number three starter for your client. You are insane to think you'll get anywhere near Teixeira money. We'll give your client about as much as anyone else will. Hear is our offer".
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I think Greinke would take KC's pick of our best FOUR prospects to obtain him. If you'd do, say, Lawrie, Rogers, Jeffress. and Odorizzi for him, I believe that's what it would take. I think that is over valuing him a little bit. If he were signed for longer then yeah. But he only has two years left on his contract. I don't think any team would offer KC their four best prospects assuming those prospects are actually any good. I personally wouldn't trade Odorizzi, Rogers, and Jeffress for him, let alone include Lawrie, just because I am unwilling to deal our three best pitching prospects. I'd like to start with Jeffress and Lawrie, and hope I could get it done without including Odorizzi and Rogers. It would have to be someone like Heckathorn and/or Peralta as opposed to Rogers and/or Odorizzi for me to do it.
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You know, one of these days us folks on BF should bid on one of these teams. I'll throw in a few hundred dollars. I was just going to suggest that. We should all chip in and buy the Astros.
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Eric Farris could always be an option as a year long stop gap. He'll be in Triple A next season. Weeks can play the year out, Farris can play for a year. Gennett or Dykstra should be close to being ready after that. Taylor Green can also play second base. None of them will match Weeks offensively, but second base doesn't need to be a premium offensive position. Beside, if Lawrie is traded, I'm sure Milwaukee will be able to find the money to resign Weeks.
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Padres interested in Brett Lawrie?
paul253 replied to Invader3K's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Just a quick look at Castro's stats it looks like he's been getting better every year, minus that little hiccup in AAA last season. Does he have any history and/or concern for injury? I think he'd be a good get for Lawrie, because it really solidifies your rotation for 2012 and allows you to trade Fielder for position prospects. You'll probably get more for Fielder that way. It doesn't do much to improve the 2011 team, but it could be a really good move for the future. -
Padres interested in Brett Lawrie?
paul253 replied to Invader3K's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
If he can bring a "Yo-like" pitcher, then I think you have to do it. Do you mean Yo now or Yo when Yo was in the minors? No way would Lawrie bring someone who has already had the success and the upside of Yovani Gallardo. -
I just don't see any way that trading Braun makes the team better on the field or financially. Makes no sense to me. I'd much prefer trading Weeks if we are going to deal a core player other than Prince. I disagree. Fans in Milwaukee have become so accustomed to simply trading away the player that is about to walk away in free agency. Hence all the trade Prince, trade Weeks talk. And I am not bashing it, I do it too. But this organization has had a fundamental problem for about a decade now. It cannot develop it's own pitching. Ben Sheets' entire tenure here was wasted away by having nobody else in the rotation to help him out, and Yovani Gallardo's tenure has started the same way. Things seem to be looking up with the likes of Rogers, Jeffress, Rivas, Peralta, Scarpetta, Odorizzi, and so on, but a lot of these guys are still a few years out and quite frankly no prospect is a sure thing. If you can improve your team enough by trading away Fielder and/or Weeks and/or someone like McGehee who should have some decent value, then fine. But nobody is offering us what we need for Fielder, at least not that we know about (though you assume he would have been traded by now if they had offered it). So we can trade Fielder away for a number three and maybe improve by a couple of wins. We can wait around and see if Rogers and Jeffress have their breakout moments. We can hope than in three years Jake Odorizzi is going to be the next Yovani Gallardo. Or we can do something bold. Ryan Braun probably has about as much trade value as anyone in baseball. With his age, his numbers and his contract, we can get what we need in terms of pitching. Obviously the hitting will take a hit, and even more so a year later when Fielder leaves. But offense has never been a problem for us, and it tends to be much easier and cheaper to find than pitching. So if you can find two really good, young pitchers who are signed for multiple years, you really have to consider taking that offer. I personally wouldn't trade Braun for any one pitcher because one pitcher isn't going to do it. I know when I suggested trading Braun and Fielder and Villy for Lester and Bucholz and Lars Anderson people thought it was just a joke and it would never happen. And while agree that it is probably as close to being a zero chance (who knows if Boston would even take it) as there is, it's the exact type of trade I think this organization needs to consider in order to ensure the constant success of the team. Forget about P.R. If the team wins, people will come. Don't get me wrong, I am not suggesting they put Braun out there to the highest bidder, but if a teams comes calling with a real offer, you have to listen.
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No it's not realstic, I so much as said so when I suggested it. It'd be a bold move though wouldn't it? And if you completed the deal for Greinke too you'd easily have the best rotation is all over baseball. Gallardo would be your third best starter. there is a disservice to the Brewers as a whole as it effects the teams stabilty, and apparently, the mental stability of a fanbase as well. I'm not really sure about this. Trade talk is just part of the game. Everybody knows that at some point they may be traded. Fielder definitely knows that and it's pretty much entirely his fault. I'm sure Braun signed his long term deal with the intention of staying in Milwaukee for awhile, but if we can improve the future of the organization by trading him you have to look at that. And he knows that. I'll ignore that little shot about the mental stability of the fan base. I think anyone who thinks trading Prince Fielder for a #3 starter is all we need to do to turn this organization into a consistent winner is just as foolish as anyone who suggests trading Braun and Fielder at the same time to make your rotation the best in baseball is the way to go. Nobody is taking these rumors seriously, but it's the offseason. Have some fun. I doubt Ryan Braun is sitting at home saying....Oh my God! Paul253 suggested that I should be traded! This is going to distract me when I play next season!
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I think the Brewers need to do something big to fix the organization. If you can get Bucholz and Lester, or even Lester and Casey Kelly, then I think you have to do it. Menace mentioned Lars Anderson, who is someone I thought of all well. Just imagine if we trade Fielder, Braun, and a reliever for Lester, Bucholz and Lars Anderson. Then, you trade Jeffress, Lawrie, Green, and Peralta for Zach Greinke. The rotation would be the best rotation in all of baseball, and that doesn't even include Mark Rogers who could replace Wolf in 2012. Offensively, well, you'll be challenged BUT there is hope. You'd have to extend Weeks. Hart and McGehee can hit. Lucroy and Cain will only get better. You insert Gamel in there somewhere. You'll have Lars Anderson at first. It'd be a young lineup. In the minors, you still have Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Rivas, Rogers and Scarpetta pitching wise. Offensively you have a few guys coming up like the Davis' and Scooter Bennett who have some potential. Plus those two top 15 draft picks you'd have to hit on in next years draft. I realize it's a pipe dream and it will never happen, but I would really love it if it did. Rotation 1) Lester 2) Greinke 3) Gallardo 4) Bucholz 5) Wolf Lineup C) Lucroy 1B Anderson 2B Weeks SS Escobar 3B McGehee LF Hart/Gamel CF Cain RF Hart/Gamel
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I would definitely listen to offers for Braun if it brings back two very good starters. The fact is, nobody here knows how Braun will hit once Fielder leaves. He's had Prince behind him ever since he's been here. When Braun hits behind Fielder, he seems to struggle. I am not saying offer him out there to anyone, but you gotta listen to offers. Boston apparently needs bullpen help too, so why not Braun and Villy for Lester, Bucholz and a top prospect? That's a pretty serious upgrade the rotation.
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Team by team analysis of Fielder trade partners
paul253 replied to NYChez's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Just looking at Baseball America's Tampa Bay Rays top 10 today, with 6 pitchers in their top 10. It's a shame Tampa isn't looking for a Fielder type. If I were Milwaukee, I'd approach them and offer to pay 75% of Fielder's salary in return for some of Tampa's pitching prospects. I'd throw in another mid ceiling hitter too if I had to. -
Well Rogers stayed Healthy for the first time so how much do you trust him staying Healthy He's been healthy for two years now. He was healthy in 2009, just very, very limited innings. I'm curious what you're basing this on This is going to sound dumb, but I actually base my feeling on my personal observations from September. Rogers' delivery seemed so much smoother and easier than Jeffress' did. Jeffress just had so much movement in his that it seems like it would be really hard to repeat. Rogers also seemed to have a lot better command of his fastball. He still needs to develop a good change if he's going to have success, but I just think his command will improve more than Jeffress' does. I would Rather move him than Jeffress who has all the making of our future closer.If you has to empty your system i rather go for King Felix over Zack. Isn't Zach Braddock supposed to be our future closer? What about John Axford, the guy that was lights out last season? Not to sound like a jerk but how many future closers do you need? I think finding a closer is 10x easier than finding a number one starter, which is what Greinke is. Also, signing relievers is a lot cheaper than signing starters. If I knew for sure Jeffress was going to end up in the bullpen, I'd be dangling him all over the place. As far as Felix goes, I doubt Seattle moves him. Didn't they just extend him last year?
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Rogers walk rate was down once he got to Milwaukee. Is that just because he was throwing more fastballs? I also think he'll need to start in Nashville, if anything just to limit his innings some. I think Jeffress needs to start in Huntsville. He is really going to need to stretch that arm out if they put him back in the rotation. I can't see him being a major league ready starter until 2013. That's why I'd much rather trade him than Rogers. That and I think Rogers has a better chance of being a starter long term.
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Higher Trade Value? Fielder or McGehee
paul253 replied to sveumrules's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
What does Oakland have to offer for pitching? McGehee would be about the easiest player on the team to replace as far as position goes. Not sure Gamel can immediately meet his production, but I'd be willing to risk it. -
I know that this sounds like a typical homerish trade proposal, but I wonder if the Royals would do a Richie Sexson type deal to fill holes. Yeah back when we made that deal, our farm system was just as empty as our major league roster. KC has a ton of prospects to insert into the lineup and would demand high ceiling players. My hope is that they dangle Greinke and realize what the Brewers are currently realizing with Fielder...that teams aren't going to over pay for him. I think Lawrie and Jeffress would be a good start, but I just don't want to do away with Rogers. To me an ideal trade would allow us to keep both Rogers and Odorizzi. I'd be ok giving up Lawrie, Jeffress, and a few other pieces (Peralta/Scarpetta/Rivas, Gamel/Green/Gindl) if need be.
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Colby thanks for the comments. My stance is pretty similar to yours. And Crew, like I said, I actually don't think we are all that far off. I realize how important it is to be able to develop your own pitching. And I will go further to say that if getting Greinke requires giving up all all three of Odorizzi, Rogers, and Jeffress, I would not do it. I would also have a hard time giving up both Rogers and Odorizzi. I'd much rather include one of them along with a Gamel or a Lawrie. I really liked what I saw from Rogers. My only problem is that if we wait for all these guys to have success at the major league level, Fielder will be gone. Weeks may well be gone. Hart will probably be in the last year of his deal or he'll also be gone. We don't have the offensive weapons in the minors to replace those guys and still hope to compete. And in the meantime, attendance will fall off significantly, making it even harder to compete than it already is. I think getting Greinke would be huge. You'd still need to get one more pitcher, and I'd even be ok with trading Fielder if it can net you a prospect like Pineda from Seattle, Britton/Arrieta for Baltimore, or someone comparable that isn't going to be gone in a year .

