paul253

They should implement the little league rule. Every player has to either get one at bat or play one inning in the field.

Between the lack of NHL stars and the odd start times I’m really having a hard time getting into the Olympic Hockey. The USAs pedestrian results certainly don’t help. 4 goals in three games. Blah.

No I get it. I’m not talking about these guys specifically anymore. Just any billionaire investor who enjoys sports. How many investments are almost guaranteed to increase in value 300%-1000% in 20-30 years like sports franchises?

Don’t have time to look up Carolina. The NY Islanders sold in 2014 for $485 million after years of losing money. Correct. Now as I said I don’t think it’s necessarily as straight forward as “losing money” since that can be partially offset by writing off the losses and other fancy accounting tricks. But either way. Yes he sold it for $485 million in 2014......after buying it for $130 million a mere fourteen years earlier. That’s a nice little profit wouldn’t you say?

Well either way, as I said these things only increase in value and do so in massive amounts.

Herb Kohl made it clear he wanted the new owners to keep the Bucks in Milwaukee. I don’t think that affected the price one bit. Also, even if your franchise is losing money (and I’ve read that most don’t actually lose money, it’s more so fancy accounting tricks for tax purposes) the amount you’d make on the sale would likely wipe up any losses by a wide margin.

Why wouldn’t anyone want to own a professional sports franchise? Have those things EVER lost value? Pay $500 million for an expansion team and in a 20 years the team will likely be worth twice that. Pettit balked at the expansion fee of $50 million in, was it ‘91? San Jose got a team instead. That team is now valued at $490 million, almost a 1000% increase (right? not so good at math). And that’s what it’s valued at. It would likely sell for much more.

Why don’t we just sign Arrietta and be done with it? Clearly TBis asking way too much for Archer and it also seems clear Darvish doesn’t want to sign with us. I’d be tempted to overpay Arrietta to get a shorter contract and I wouldn’t go over four years but I’d hate to have the Yelich trade and Cain signing, for lack of better word, wasted by not addressing the rotation. Nelson will be out for almost half the year and I’m sorry but I don’t think we can count on Anderson to put up the same season as he did last year. Our offense is built to win. The rotation not so much. Go out and sign Arrietta, who likely becomes your best starter, and then make a trade at the deadline if need be. It improves the team while saving the farm and if he sucks it up you still have a number of prospect options in the coming years that will be extremely cheap to help soften the blow.

It’s time for the DH in the NL. Salaries, especially for pitches are getting out of hand and it’s unfair only one league has to bear the additional injury risk. Additionally, AL teams have huge roster building advantages as they can add players who are defensive liabilities, players who are older and not playing the field would help them avoid injury (Braun for instance) or they can add players at a position that’s already filled. I’d prefer both leagues to have the pitcher hit but that’ll never happen so the next best thing is for the NL to take up the DH.

It would make too much sense for the current Bucks owners to own an NHL team. They have plenty of money between the three of them as all three of them are billionaires. They have a brand new arena that, even though the taxpayers paid for half, is essentially theirs. And they are trying to create some huge new entertainment district surrounding the arena. What better way to attract more people down there than to essentially double the number of professional sporting events there? Plus they could work with the Bucks vs a team having to work around the Bucks. I really wonder if they had at least of though of looking into it since they made the arena hockey ready. Would they really do that just to try to get the Frozen Four once or twice a decade?

I think it’s a little more complicated than that. If you keep all three vs trading all three it has a ripple effect elsewhere. Even if they don’t turn into a #2 like Archer and rather you get two #3s and a #4 it alllows you to fill in the rotation with cheap homegrown alternatives, which in turn allows you sign other guys down the line or trade someone like Davies or Anderson as you now have replacements for them. That obviously would get you more players to help. If, instead you move two or all of them for Archer then a year or two from now there are still two spots in the rotation to fill that would have otherwise been filled, meaning you now need to expend resources to fill the spots vs using them elsewhere (a solid reliever for instance). Or even if there is no room for them you miss on an opportunity to make the Davies or Anderson trade which would prevent an influx of prospects (or whatever you get in return). I think at this point it’s just best to sign an Arrietta and be done UNLESS you can get a pitcher in a favorable trade. It doesn’t sound like TB wants quantity over quality but maybe our quality can include only an Ortiz or only a Burnes plus positional prospects and lesser ceiling pitchers like Medeiros. We still have no idea if Anderson can repeat his breakout year or if Nelson can come back and be the same pitcher he was before a serious should injury. I’d be very hesitant to move our cheap, homegrown insurance at this point.

Honestly at this point I’d be content with just signing Arrieta and rolling with what you’ve got. It gives us a punchers chance with a decent rotation and a quality offense while allowing us to hold onto our top prospects, many of whom will be ready in the next year or two. If we’re goig to give up three more top prospects for Archer it’ll set the farm back a good three to four years, particularly if those prospects are pitchers. It’s taken us a longtime to develop pitching prospects as quality as Burnes, Ortiz and Woodruff. I’d hate to have to start all over.

Maybe maybe not. It depends on how we do this season. Like I said if we’re out of it come September it wouldn’t be out of question to give him a few starts to see how he does. Or if we need another starter due to injury or ineffectiveness he could be an option. Or perhaps they just don’t view him as a starter and we already are getting the most value out of him. He’s certainly not a sure thing to succeed as a starter.

Eventually he should probably be given the chance to start but not this year. This team has playoff hopes and with respect to Hader we can’t afford to put someone in the rotation when we have no idea if he can regularly go more than 5 or 6 innings. He had short starts in the minors and major leaguers are better hitters with access to better scouting reports and videos to study. To me the ideal time for him to start is when we aren’t gunning for the playoffs. If we’re out of it in September then I’m all for getting him 5-6 starts to see what he can do. But for now he’s too big an unknown and too valuable a bullpen piece to be put in the rotation.

I think the biggest issue is that as a small market team if we are to trade away quality pitching prospects we HAVE to get it right We can’t cover up mistakes with expensive free agents like other teams can. We have to develop our own talent so we can spend our limited resources to fill areas of weakness. I have no idea how good a Burnes or an Ortiz will be but just having them fill out the rotation at minimum cost is a huge value to us. That’s not to say we should never trade away a pitching prospect. I was all for moving some to get Sonny Gray last season. But we have to be careful about it. And we can’t reach for MLB pitchers like some think we would be doing with Archer and some thought we’d be doing with Gray. We should definitely inquire about Archer as he would be a huge upgrade over what we have. But we have to ask ourselves if the return is worth the cost. I think many of us would be more willing to do it if the prospects that were traded were position players but obviously TB will want some pitching in return. I honestly don’t think I’d include two of Burnes Ortiz and Woodruff, not necessarily because I think they’ll all be aces but because as a small market team it’s almost a necessity to have home grown starting pitching and they all seem capable of at least being #3 type guys. That’s very valuable to us.

No I don’t. Which is why you keep either Thames or Aguilar.

If Jim Thome is a hall of Famer then I think Braun is. The only thing that would keep him out is the PED issue. At the very least it’s close, much closer then you seem to be making it out to be. A six time all star former MVP who will finish with over 2000 hits 300 home runs 1000 RBI and 200 stolen bases. Either way, he’s still one of our best hitters and you don’t platoon him.

Yes he could be a starter but he’s not going to be so no point in talking about it. Obviously him playing every day in best for him but considering about the team and not him I repeat the statement that he’s he ideal fourth outfielder for us. I’m referring more to the type of player he is So serious question here. You keep mentioning stuff like this. “He supposed”. “You’re speculating”. What is it that you think you’re doing? You’re stating this stuff as fact yet there isn’t one supporting piece of evidence that you’ve provided to back up one single claim you’ve made. I fully admit that I’m speculating but at least what HH said provides SOME support to my claim. You haven’t provided one iota of support to your claims, either that leverage isn’t the reason for the upper demands or that all these other reasons are why the demand was upped. That’s what is so frustrating about debating with you. As I said earlier you don’t know anything here more than I do. So why do you insist on absolutely positively claiming that this other theory is 100% wrong? All things being equal Braun is still one of the best two or three hitters on this teams. Down one in the bottom of the ninth with two outs and a guy on second who would you rather have up? Yelich. Maybe Cain. MAYBE Shaw? That’s about it. You don’t just bury Braun because he’s old. This guy is a future Hall of Famer.

For the record I was simply pointing out that Eric Thames doesn’t exactly have a track record of success either. I apologize for being unwilling to use his numbers in the Korean league or Japan or wherever he played before. People were acting as though Aguilars numbers were clearly a fluke and Thames numbers clearly weren’t. As someone else pointed out after his ridiculously hot April his numbers were actually pretty bad. But again, my decision is more based on his contract and likely higher return than anything. Freeing up the $12 million he is still owed (including buyout) could net us a significant piece or two. Unthinkable? From 2014-2016 he played in 135, 140, and 135 games respectively. One year in which he’s injured and “only” plays in 104 games and all of a sudden it’s unthinkable that he can be anything other than the right side of a platoon, even at a much less physically demanding position? My concern is more so that you’re putting together the roster more so out of inflexibility than anything. Yes you can stash Phillips and Broxton at CS but is that really what you wanted to do? Phillips is the ideal fourth outfielder. Great defense. Some power. Some contact. Can steal a base if needed. He’s proven himself on the minors. The last I want is for them to use up his remaining option simply because we have nowhere to put him, while either counting on Braun to both adequately handle first base AND slide back and forth between there and the outfield or counting on Eric Thames to play some outfield. Broxton too. Great defense. Good power. Can steal a base. Very inconsistent but playing in the minors certainly won’t help in trying to rebuild his value. I also don’t think we should just demote Braun to a platoon role either. He’s still a very good hitter and then team is better when he’s in the lineup. He should have every opportunity to be an every day player, albeit with a few more scheduled off days then a younger guy. It just seems to me that while we’ll “be ok” and “don’t have to” move Santana the roster kinda fits together better if he is moved.

But in this situation he wouldn’t have to. Again, Braun would be the everyday first baseman. Notice how TMwiese referred to Walker as “your insurance”. If the idea is to platoon Braun then obviously you keep Thames ahead of Aguilar.

But the problem is we don’t know how serious the “multiple suitors” are. And we also don’t know if the other teams did the same thing TB did. HH19 said TB increased their demand. He did not say that the other teams didn’t. So we don’t know if they did or not. We also don’t know if the other teams are interested enough to increase their offer, or even stick to their offer. They could have both said “yeah we’ll take him but we’re not going to give up much” which is why a move hasn’t been made yet. Plus, if word gets out around baseball like it apparently has around here that the chances of the TB trade going through went down that doesn’t help either. You just had one of the two teams you were bidding against disappear. That only helps your position. I could be completely misreading this situation but in my opinion I think the Brewers had every intention of moving Santana but have since found that other teams are just not willing to give up as much as they expected. I don’t know if the acquisitions of Yelich and Cain are the reason why but I certainly don’t think it helped.

Allow me to explain. First off as I said I’d be playing Braun at first base full time, not platooning him, so the backup doesn’t really come into play that often. I’m betting on him being able to play more often and stay healthier since he’s at a much less rigorous defensive position. Therefore I don’t see the need to have a left handed first basemen like you do. Second, while Aguilar is a first base only player and Thames, theoretically can play some corner outfield, let’s face it Thames would not be playing much outfield when you have Yelich, Cain, Santana, Phillips, and maybe even Broxton ahead of him. How often do fifth outfielders, let alone sixth outfielders get starts? And even if he and when he does start he’ll likely have to replaced anyway in the late innings for defensive purposes when the game is close. So that essentially leaves Thames as the same type of player as Aguilar in my mind. A backup first basemen and emergency outfielder. Third, as others have mentioned I’m not suggesting Aguilar is necessarily a better player than Thames. I think he is similar enough offensively though that it wouldn’t be much of a downgrade. I think Aguilar has just as much power, although his OBP would probably be lower. But he’s also much cheaper which is a big part of the reason why I’d move Thames. Additionally I think Thames would fetch more in return, which is another reason. Really the only argument to keep Thames in this situation is that he’s a lefty. To me that isn’t enough of an argument to make when you could save more money and likely get a better return by trading away Thames. We have plenty of lefties available off the bench with Vogt Phillips and Villar and if you need another one then make a play for Neil Walker. Just for clarity’s sake, how many good seasons has Thames had? Before last year highest OBP year was .313. And even last year he was very inconsistent. Let’s not make him out to be more than he is.

This is probably my number one option too, though I’d prefer they look to trade Thames for some prospects. If Braun plays first I want it to be full time with Aguilar backing him up. Then we can keep Phillips on the roster as someone else who can play a good CF.

I’m not going to get dragged into this anymore. As Brewcity said let’s get back on topic. If you want to start on a thread on whether or not leverage exists in trades generally and the Santana situation specifically Id be happy to participate.

Don’t sell yourself short. This is a very good second post. Back to topic. Where is Santana going? My prediction is nowhere. I think our best bet right now would be to try to trade Thames for some low level high upside prospects. Thames strikes out just as much as Santana. He’s older. He’s more expensive. He’s under control for less time. Really the only thing he has on Santana is that he’s left handed. Play Ryan Braun at first base full time with Aguilar as his backup. If Braun to going to move to first I’d prefer he does it full time. Less wear and tear on his body and more time to learn he position. Just a hunch but I think our opportunity to trade Santana has passed. That’s not necessarily a bad thing though. He’s a middle of the order hitter.