paul253

On this board it's so easy & convenient to shoot down anyone's optimism (which in this case I share with PFx1), but there can easily be just as much folly in the persistent and blanket negativism. So it's ok to make all these assumptions that had everything gone perfect then things would be fine but we can't assume that had we had Corey Hart everything else, or at least most other things wouldn't have played out the way they did? I'll be the first to admit if everything goes right all season this team is fine.....for now. Unfortunately that's not how things work, especially when you rely on a team with guys mostly in or past their prime. Optimism is one thing. But basing that optimism on absolutely everything going right all season seems a bit unrealistic. Also, how easy it to say "yeah we just need one more pitcher"? If getting that pitcher were so easy we wouldn't be in the mess we are in. Melvin has been trying for a decade to draft or sign a #1 or a #2 and he has yet to do so. Unless he plans on trading away what's left of the farm it's not going to happen. No, adding Corey Hart and having Braun and Ramirez back healthy makes us the best offense in baseball when you also include guys like Segura, Gomez, and Lucroy. Again, this is assuming that a 35 year old fairly injury plagued player, or a guy coming off major knee surgery can both stay healthy all year. Or that Segura, who hit .241 in the second half, and Gomez, who hit .265 in the second half, both not only return to first half form but keep up the numbers all season. Or that Braun is same guy without the PEDs as he was with them. To me this is just too many IFs to rely on. To me it seems like looking only at the positives and completely ignoring the negatives, which is what you guys are doing, sets up this franchise for mediocrity. Beside, even IF Hart and Ramirez come back healthy and stay that way all year everyone knows they are both short term solutions. Who are our third basemen and first basemen in 2015 and beyond? Do we just continue to sign aging vets and hope for the best? Because that sure seems like the strategy we've been adopting the past few seasons.

I have this front office pegged. Oh my.

I'd re-think calling the brewers a 4th place team when if they had gotten more playing time out of Hart, Braun and Ramirez and had they had 1 more pitcher like Lohse they could have easily been the 2nd best team in the division. It's an awfully big assumption saying that Corey Hart and one additional starting pitcher makes us the second best team in the division considering the second best team in the division was 20 games better than us last year. I view them both as a 1/2 SP's, Neither Yovani Gallardo nor Kyle Lohse are #1s. I hope we can all agree on that. If Kyle Lohse was a #1 he would have been signed long before we got him. Add in there another number 2 SP, and our rotation will be good enough to go with what will likely be the top offense in Baseball should Hart be re-signed. I'm sorry but this is absurd. First of all who is this #2 we are going to find? I'm not sure trading our entire minor league system is good enough to bring back a #2 right now. And adding Corey Hart makes us the best offense in baseball? The same Corey Hart who missed the entire season because of a knee problem? He's going to take a team that finished 18th in OPS last year and make us the best offense in baseball? And we know for sure that Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez are going to put up the same numbers they put up in the first half last year and not the second? We know Aramis Ramiriez is going to stay healthy? We know Braun will be the same player after missing over half a year?

The Brewers will add bullpen arms and trade for a good SP, and sign Hart. They will be fine next season. Mark? Is that you? Seriously though. Who are they going to trade for? More importantly, who do they have that they CAN trade that is good enough to bring back a quality SP?

The Brewers could trade one of them and re-stock the farm in addition to the next 2 draft years, and open up another 5+ year window to compete. They could but will they? What have Mark or Doug ever done to suggest they will? And as far as the draft goes. There's a draft every year and quite frankly we've been pretty bad at evaluating talent in the guys we've picked. Again, what have they done that makes you believe it will be any different the next few years? The Brewers have a fundamental problem of being unable to properly evaluate and develop talent, especially pitching. Until that changes this team will never compete on a year to year basis.

Getting into Miller Park has become somewhat of a joke. I don't know if it's the checking of the purses, them not opening all of the turnstiles, or some combination of the two but it shouldn't take 25 minutes to get from the parking lot into the stadium.

Overbay, Escobar, and Hardy were not in the last year of their contracts when they were traded. You're right I made a mistake on Overbay. But both he and Hardy were traded because they were blocking what were believed to be better players (Fielder and Escobar....remember Hardy had been demoted that season so he wasn't really even that great of a player at the time) and I presume that Escobar was a necessary piece to get Greinke. Escobar may be the only significant player who was traded that wasn't in the final year of his deal and who wasn't blocking someone. That's not exactly a risky prediction given that fairly major trades for players like Gomez aren't really all that commonplace for teams each year. And it's even less of a risky prediction given his M.O. Detroit and Texas just made a blockbuster deal. I understand that those deals are rare but they do happen (I think of the R.A. Dickey deal last season as well). They usually happen when both teams realize that the only way they are going shore up a weak area is to make that sort of trade. One team I've always thought would be a good match for Gomez would be Seattle. They have a lot of young pitching prospects but are struggling big time on offense. We generally have a pretty strong offense but our pitching ranks are nearly bare. Flipping Gomez for Walker or Hultzen + makes all the sense in the world for both teams. You act like teams regularly trade productive guys like Gomez, Gallardo, or Hart when they aren't old and/or don't have an ugly contract. How am I acting like that? All I am doing is stating the facts. Melvin rarely trades significant contributors that are not in the final years of their contracts. Just like he rarely allows young positional prospects to play every day unless they are either top notch prospects or there is no alternative. It's just the way he is. As if Melvin is the only GM sitting around not shopping his non-old productive players for prospects because he wants to win in the present. He's not winning in the present. That's the problem. He's not winning because he has no pitching. History has shown when he has pitching he wins (I think in his time with Milwaukee there was only one season where the team ERA was in the top half of the league and they did not make the playoffs). But instead of using the pieces that he has to go get that pitching he sits on his hands and marvels about how wonderful of a player he's got. Well clearly whatever he's doing in the draft isn't working. Outside of Peralta there don't seem to be a whole lot of successful international free agents in the organization. Pretty much all of the pitching prospects he's traded for have been duds. So how exactly is this team going to win in the present if he doesn't start taking some chances and goes and gets these #1 potential guys? The only time he wins is when he has those guys and right now he not only does he not have them in Milwaukee but he doesn't have them anywhere. You also seem to forget that Melvin has a clearly involved owner who has shown and stated multiple times that he wants to win in the present as much or more than than Doug does. I did not forget about Mark Attanasio. And I know he has veto power over everything. But Doug is the baseball guy, not Mark. It's Doug's job to win and if that means convincing the owner that they need pitching at any cost then that's what he should be doing. Maybe Mark says no anyway. Who knows. All I know is that right now this is a mediocre team with a terrible farm system and "winning now" seems out of the question. You are assuming big time that Attanasio would just sign off on trading away all of the productive players you wanted traded who didn't have ugly contracts, for mostly prospects. "All" of the players I want traded is essentially one or two guys, though I think only one move is needed. And the players I've suggesting going after, while still I guess technically prospects, are all major league ready. I'm not suggesting they move Gomez for a couple of A ballers I think trading either Gomez or Segura (preferably Gomez because he's easier to replace) for a pitcher with #1 potential makes this team better now. But just for the sake of argument which team is better? A team with a rotation of Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta, Estrada and Thornburg with Gomez and Segura playing everyday or a team with a rotation of Gallardo, Lohse, Peralta, Shelby Miller and Taijaun Walker with Aoki/Schafer and a FA SS playing every day? Maybe now it's a push but I think soon......really soon......the second would be a much, much better team, especially after they find a regular SS.

but i don't buy that he's nearly untouchable as Segura is I do. Melvin has been a the GM for Milwaukee for a long time and over that time frame he's established a bit of an M.O. Part of that M.O. is that he absolutely will not trade an established player unless that player is in the final year of his contract. Sexson, Greinke, KRod, Lyle Overbay, Carlos Lee all traded in the final year of their contract. Guys like Gallardo, Weeks, Hart, Ramirez and Axford all refused to be traded even though there was likely significant interest in all of them. Why? I think a big part of it is that Melvin thinks it is stupid to trade players who can theoretically help the team for more than a year, although a lot of players end up hurting more than helping towards the end of their deals. It's the same reason we all know Melvin won't trade, say, Jim Henderson this offseason even though closers are pretty easily replaced. I think that if someone called and asked about Gomez Melvin would listen. But I also think he'd demand WAY too much in return. Yes, he should ask for a significant return but there's a difference between significant and ridiculous. In my opinion Melvin is too closed minded to run a franchise like Milwaukee and that is why I'd bet a year's salary that Carlos Gomez will not be moved this offseason.

Can someone explain to me why we would even want Ike Davis? He has power and.....that's all. He hit .205 with a .326 OBP last year and struck out once every three at bats. If all you are looking for is power then they might as well let Hunter Morris play first base. He hit 24 HRs in Nashville last year. To suggest that the Brewers would not only give them Ryan Braun for but to also add money is absurd. It'd be like us suggesting we trade Rickie Weeks for Miguel Cabrera.

I think it is about time that we actually get a legit rumor to talk about..... Such as???? This thread was never meant to speculate on whether or not DM is going to trade Segura for Shelby Miller. It was simply one asking whether or you would make the move if it were presented. Half the posts on this board are about moves everyone knows Doug Melvin isn't going to make. We all know he isn't going to trade Segura. We all know he isn't going to trade Gomez. We all know that he isn't going to trade Ramirez. If this were simply about moves he is likely to make the trade rumors portion of this message board would be kind of dead right now. Beside, one can always hope that maybe one day someone with some leverage in the organization takes a looks at this message board and says "hey, maybe we SHOULD consider moving Segura or Gomez if it can get us a young ace in return because clearly our strategy of all offense no pitching isn't cutting it". It could happen

You blow up this roster and not only do you need to find pitching you have to find everyday talent as well. Well ideally if you blow up the roster you obtain some of that pitching. You don't just give guys away, you get something in return. That is where him being able to successful evaluate young unproven talent would come in handy. I'm not sure he has that ability. It's a pipe dream to think somehow they are going to be a playoff team year after year so take what's possible, and don't spend time dreaming of a day that will never happen. It's only a pipe dream because our current management has set their expectations too low. Melvin looks at one year at a time instead of looking at the bigger picture. You win with pitching. We don't have it. We can't get it. Instead of obtaining young guys in trades or hiring a scout that knows how to better evaluate prospects he relies way too much on free agency and the same ole same ole. Do people realize that in over a decade as GM Melvin has still only developed 3 successful starting pitchers (Sheets, Gallardo, Peralta...and even Peralta is kind of a reach so far)! Seriously.....three pitchers in over a decade. And you wonder why we can't put together a playoff team year in year out? It's not that we can't, it's that DM is unable to figure out how.

I don't like the idea of including Taylor or Roache to get Adams. Adams really struggles against lefties and may end up needing a platoon. Taylor and Roache are two of our most promising positional prospects and could end up eventually being top 100 guys. If we wanted Adams I'd rather give up someone with a lower ceiling.

I don't think blowing it up makes any sense until you deal with the real issue. The Brewers have no idea how to draft and develop their own talent. Until they completely revamp their scouting department I don't think trading Braun makes any sense. They also need the owner and GM to come to a definitive decision. They can't kinda try to rebuild while also trying to compete at the same time. You can't trade away a guy or two then replace him with an expensive FA who has average to slightly above average career numbers. I'll never forget the way DM last season announced that any trade they make would be to help the club two or three years down the road. Fans finally believe management realized the state the franchise was in. Then Melvin goes on to make all of one trade while holding onto plenty of other guys who should have garnered interest. And I don't think anyone here really believes DM and Mark A. will make any moves this offseason that are designed to be beneficial two or three years from now. This team needs to get out of this rut and the owner needs to give his fans a little more credit. We'll understand the moves so long as it appears as though you know what you're doing.

Looking at that article I think even more pathetic than the top 10 list is the organization top 15 players under 25 list. For an organization than needs young talent to survive Doug Melvin and his scouting department sure have done a terrible job acquiring that talent. When you only have two players in the entire organization under the age of 25 that profile as anything other than a role player or a middle of the rotation starter you know you are in trouble. The Brewers are going to need 2 or 3 very, very solid drafts in order to start turning this ship around. I'm sure I'm not the only one here who has little faith in that happening.

I'd guess Gallardo. He's more of a franchise face than Lohse. Gallardo started over too Greinke IIRC.

It's not THAT bad of a list. Just nobody that screams "major league all-star". If Taylor, Arcia and Williams all have good years that list looks a lot better next season. If Roache can bring up the average to the .280 range while maintaining the power he'll look like a steal. And if Coulter can stay healthy and hit he won't look like such a bust. I know a lot of if's but you have to do something to convince yourself the organization isn't in complete disrepair. Man, a top 6 pick would have looked really nice next June. But at least we got hot and only finished 16 games out of the wild card spot.

Burnett wasnt/isnt looking for a multi-year deal, though. he's been on the radio saying one more year with the pirates or retirement pretty much since the all star break. So wouldn't that make him even more likely to accept a QO? If you are only looking to play one more year why risk either accepting a smaller deal or not being signed at all when you are guaranteed $14 million? Assuming the Pirates want Burnett back I'm sure they don't want to pay him that much money. That goes back to the original point of the thread. If the Pirates wanted Burnett back they'd still have to be careful about how much they paid him and if they didn't think they could afford the QO amount they wouldn't offer it to him. If the Yankees wanted Burnett back they'd offer the QO and wouldn't think twice about it. If he signs elsewhere so be it. They get an extra pick and go grab the next most expensive FA pitcher they can find.

Saw the kid play a lot, and he is not close to being MLB ready. Yeah I think the Brewers would be wise to let both Arcia and Rivera repeat their 2013 levels. Arcia held his own but I'd like to let his ability catch up to his league a little bit. But then again reaching out for Tulo shows Stl's desperation to fill their SS. I think it's worthwhile to extend contact and see what they'd offer in return for Segura. I agree. If they are willing to go hard after an extremely expensive, injury prone 29 year old SS why not see what they'd offer for a cheap, talented soon to be 24 year old SS who was an allstar in his first full season?

Burnett, even though the Yankees gave money to the $16 mil he made last year, isnt going to take a $6+ mil pay cut to play one more year in Pittsburgh. People may be hesitant to give a 37 year old pitcher a multi year deal, especially when he'll be seeking something close to the $16.5 million he made each of the last 5 years. If it comes to accepting, say, either a two year $20 million deal or a one year $14.1 million deal he may well accept the one year deal and try again next season. But that's not the point. The point is if a team like Pittsburgh or Milwaukee or Oakland has a guy accept this offer then they have to cut elsewhere. If a team like NYY, Boston, or the Dodgers has a guy accept the offer they'll simply move forward with a higher payroll. Therefore it is much riskier for certain teams to make the QO and it is yet another built in advantage for the teams with more financial resources. How anyone can look at a sport where there is a $204 million disparity between the teams with the highest and lowest payrolls and claim everyone has an equal shot at consistently winning is beyond me.

Didnt want to start a new thread on this but I noticed that of the 13 players who turned down QO's three each play for the Yankees and Red Sox, meaning that they will each get three additional draft picks after the first round if those players sign elsewhere. The rich continue to get richer. I'm sorry but the MLB draft is an absolute joke.

I'm not saying this idea that inter-divisional trades are less likely to occur but I've never understood what the big deal is. It's like saying "we'd rather be bad as long as this other division team is bad too". The idea of a trade is to improve your team. If the team you need to make a trade with in order to improve your team just happens to be in the same division as you, so be it. Beside as it stands now the Brewers and Cardinals are so far apart that I don't see why the Cardinals would even view the Brewers as a threat. And I don't see why the Brewers would worry about making the Cardinals better when their sole focus should be on making themselves better. I hope people aren't really suggesting there's a possibility for a Miller-Segura swap. I don't think anyone realistically expects Melvin would make that move because Melvin is way too conservative to do that. He'll never take such a big chance on a young player, no matter how talented that player is. I know people will point to the C.C. and Greinke trades to argue Melvin is not conservative but it is a hell of a lot less risky to trade for established MLB pitching than to take chances on younger, cost controlled players (i.e. the type of players he needs to start taking chances on) Plus, when does Melvin EVER trade someone who isn't in the final year of his contract?

"The worst is when you try to do it halfway: when you think you can compete and you also think you're trying to rebuild. Then you're stuck in no-man's-land. You either do it or you don't." I really wonder what is going between DM and Mark A. I wonder if Melvin recognizes the state of the franchise but Mark A. is playing the role of Herb Kohl and demanding we win as many games as possible, even if that number is only 78.

I would love for Melvin to think outside the box as to how to acquire talented young pitching. That would mean either trading Gomez or Segura. I have been a big advocate of moving Gomez as he is signed to a team friendly deal, had a breakout season that I'm not sure he can repeat, and is still relatively young. Plus we have a capable replacement in Schafer (at least defensively capable) and as BCD pointed out Aoki would be an ok alternative as well. Segura would require the right player in return (the Shelby Miller/Tajaun Walker type player) but I'd wouldn't be dead set on moving him like I'm sure Melvin is. Recent history has shown that 1) We aren't a playoff team without a team ERA at least in the top half of the league and 2) We don't have a rotation capable of doing that, nor do we have enough help in the system to get there. I'm glad that we have players that are good (Segura, Gomez) but I'd rather watch a good team than good players. The Brewers are not a good team right now and unless everything goes exactly right I just don't see how we'll be a good team in 2014.

there are no guarantees that Gennett and Davis are what they showed in 2013. There is also no guarantee that Segura hits like the first half Segura and not the second half Segura. Something could always go wrong. You can't always base your off season moves on worst case scenarios. I also disagree with the idea that the Brewers have question marks at 2nd base and RF. Even if Gennett hits .270-.280 with a .320 OBP that's still about a push from what we got out of 2nd base last season. And that's assuming Gennett is even the second basemen. Rickie Weeks come back strong. Also, as far as I'm concerned RF belongs to Aoki until someone says otherwise. If he is in RF I don't consider it a question mark 2. StL's lineup currently is better than the Brewers and a Segura-Miller deal widens the gap. 3. StL trades a potential ace in Miller but really is not hurt in the process given the depth of quality young SP they already possess in Wacha, Kelly, Martinez, etc... 4. StL's pitching staff remains better than Milwaukee's. We also can't base all of our moves with the sole intention of passing STL this year. STL is light years ahead of Milwaukee as an organization. We have to focus on making the Brewers better and acquiring a pitcher with the upside of Miller, something the organization lacks at any level, would be a good first step even if it means letting go of Segura. The Brewers need a serious upgrade in talent and that means taking chances.

And they won the second fewest games in baseball. You can't win with poor pitching or poor hitting. The Brewers would still have Braun, Ramirez, Gomez, and Lucroy. Weeks or Gennett. Aoki or Davis. I think even without Segura the offense would be fine. Remember, in the second half, over the course of 53 games, Segura only hit .241 with a .268 OBP and a .315 slugging. I don't think that's indicative of the kind of hitter he is but it shows the Brewers can survive without him putting up all star numbers. In fact, in the second half, without Braun, with Ramirez missing significant time and with both Segura and Gomez cooling off drastically, the Brewers still put up a 36-32 record. The difference? Pitching (4.13 team ERA vs 3.42 ERA) If the choice is either good pitching or good hitting I'll take good pitching. But if you move Segura for Miller I don't think it'll be one or the other. I think it'll be better pitching and still good enough hitting.