paul253

Define "blow it" You said it: However, I am afraid he will get a lower ceiling, close to the majors pitcher And the fact that he's asking for a first base prospect. We have Gamel. We have Morris. And first base is the easiest position to fill. Why waste valuable trade bait on a first baseman? He'll probably get like......Erving Santana and CJ Cron from the Angels. That's what I mean by blow it.

Does anyone else have the feeling that Melvin is going to completely blow this?

Like I said.....Melvin needs to make a plan. Up til now, his plan has been "win now at all costs" every year. It worked ok in 2008. It got us to the playoffs and probably increased the fan base, but the team went nowhere after that because of a lack of pitching. It worked really well last year but has failed miserably this year. I'm really worried that we no longer have enough at the major league and minor league levels to "win now" for quite awhile. That's why you need the influx of talent. Getting the guys I mentioned (Olt, Lee, Gould, Marte and Heredia) would be the influx of talent I am talking about. You're probably going to have to punt on next year but after that you are set up much better to win consistently than you are now. Especially with how much money you saved by eliminating the contracts of Greinke, Marcum, KRod, Ramirez, and Hart. The "window" has passed, especially with Greinke's likely departure. Whether Melvin likes to admit it or not the Brewers cannot field a playoff caliber team with the players that will be on their roster next season. There is not enough talent, especially in the rotation, and the minor leagues are still too bare to provide that needed punch next season. So make a long term plan with 2014 as your starting point.

So it's very possible that both Delgado and Turner are guys we could have gotten in exchange for Greinke. How many more young, cheap, talented pitchers are going to be traded away before Melvin makes up his mind?

I don't even think the Brewers are interested in having Ransom or Izturis on their team.

it also raise the price for Grienke even more. Assuming Melvin even decides to trade him.

They can't do anything until Greinke goes out and pitches tomorrow and looks healthy. Nobody will want him right now after we skipped a start for no reason. If he is injured the Brewers can't trade him anyway so there'd be no point in trying to hide it. Teams may want to see what his velocity is but I can't imagine skipping his start turned off any teams who are interested.

Can someone who has seen him a couple times help me out with something? Is his control off on all of his pitches? Or is it just his secondary pitches?

Just wanted to bump this thread to see how people view Rogers' season. Obviously control has been an issue but his last three starts now have been pretty good. A line of 19 IP 9 hits 2 ER 5 BBS 20ks. If this season goes in the tanks do we give him some starts to see what he has? Do we give him a chance at the rotation next season and if he fails put him in the pen? Does he immediately go to the pen and focus on two pitches to help improve the control? I believe he is out of options so Nashville isn't a possibility. It's Milwaukee or bust in 2013. I was a heavy advocate of letting him start all year and I do nor regret that stance. Unfortunately unless these last three starts are the beginning of a new trend I don't think he has really answered any questions. The good news is obviously his health and I believe this is now his third season in a row without any shoulder or elbow issues. I'd be inclined to let him continue to get starts this season and let him compete for a rotation spot next season with Wily Peralta and Marco Estrada. If he fails use him in the pen and tell him to focus on two pitches.

I'd offer Greinke straight up for Mike Olt right now. Hamels would probably require more than just Olt and the Rangers would have to decide if it is worth the risk. Mike Olt is the middle of the order hitter than Milwaukee needs and he can play either corner infield spot. He's young, he's cheap, and he is the kind of player Milwaukee needs. I am a little worried he's going to end up having a Matt LaPorta type career but the fact is you probably aren't going to do much better for Greinke. And if you hang onto him you're going to have a tough time getting a prospect like Olt with the one pick after the first round that you'll get in return.

Not that I don't agree with what is proposed, just don't think it will happen with the current administration calling the shots. I agree. But they all seem like reasonable moves to me. You trade away your guys and get their replacement in return. In the process you save a ton of money that can be invested in the bullpen, in depth, or at SS. Paul's plan gives us a team of Braun, Lucroy, Weeks, Gallardo, Axford, Estrada, and no one else with any sort of proven track record for major league success -- a glorified KC Royals of the past couple years: loads of prospects but anyone with any solid experience quickly earns his way to a better team for yet more prospects (the start of a vicious cycle that many teams have a tough time breaking). Well there's also Aoki and depending on the cost Gomez. That's a least 4 regulars in the 8 person lineup. Gamel, Green, Marte Schafer would be four others in the lineup. Obviously no success yet but three of them have nothing left to prove in the minors and Marte is quickly getting to that point as well. Olt, Gennett, Khris Davis, and Caleb Gindl would all be in AAA in case someone struggles. Is it risky? Of course. But the point isn't necessarily to win the World Series in 2013. It's to help get the payroll back into whack and to see what you have. It's possible that Green, Gamel, Schafer, and Marte all fall flat on their face, but it's also possible all perform above what is expected. You can't have a proven track record without being given a chance.

Contend? That team is bad. It would have to seriously play over its head. Depending on what they do with their money and how much they can improve their bullpen it wouldn't be that bad. I mean, not playoff caliber but it's not like they would lose 100 games. Plus, a lot would depend on who reaches their potential and who doesn't. If Green, Gamel, Schafer and Marte all struggle it will be a long year. But if they all play average ball it won't be that bad. They'll still have Weeks, Braun, Aoki, Lucroy, Axford, and Gallardo. I have yet to make me think that Scooter Gennett is a core player, or even a big league regular. The guy led his league in hits last year and is third in his league right now. He hit .309 in Wisconsin, .300 in BC and is currently hitting .291 in AA having just turned 22. And while his defense may not be gold glove caliber quite honestly if Rickie Weeks can turn into an average fielder there is hope for just anyone. So really, what makes you think he can't be a major league regular?

I'd actually like to see the Brewers make a plan. A long term, sustained success plan. It seems like Melvin plays to "win now" every year and that is why guys like Gamel, Green and Schafer don't get the chances they've earned. My idea is for them to shoot for 2014 as the starting point. That means trading Greinke, KRod, Ramirez, and Hart. I'd include Marcum but because of his injury I don't think you can get anything for him. This is what I'd like to see. Trade Corey Hart to Pittsburgh for Starlin Marte and Luis Heredia. Not sure if Heredia is available but he is a long ways away so I can't imagine Pittsburgh would be too insistent on keeping him, especially for a player they can keep through 2013. Marte is most often mentioned as trade bait and could immediately compete for a starting position in 2013. Trade Ramirez to LAD for Lee and Gould. Two more arms in the system and frees up a bunch of money. Trade Greinke to Texas for Mike Olt. At this point I'm willing to take a straight up deal for Olt. Trade KRod for the best relief prospect you can get. Honestly I have no idea who this will be. Trade Kottaras for the best relief prospect you can get. Not expecting much here but Kottaras is expendable. Then allow Marcum, Wolf and Morgan to leave after this year freeing up more money. Ditto for Gomez depending on how much he will cost. The 2013 team may be a little young and I wouldn't expect much but the good news is that there would be a lot of upside. Hopefully by 2014 you have a rotation including Gallardo, Peralta, Thornburg, and Fiers and a solid, young core consisting of Lucroy, Braun, Marte, Olt, Schafer, Gennett, and Gamel. Green would be a nice utility guy. Obviously a long term answer at SS is needed. Khris Davis, Hunter Morris and Caleb Gindl could figure in there somewhere as well. And we'd still have pitching prospects like Jungmann, Bradley, Gagnon, Lee, Gould, Nelson, Burgos and Heredia. Supplement all of this with a couple of free agents and you might have the beginning of some sustained success due to the cheap homegrown players and the ability to complement them with free agents.

If Fiers can get some wins, maybe 8 or 9 before the season is over, and continues to put up a sub 3.00 ERA, is there ANY chance he gets some love for ROY? Or is that honor pretty much reserved for Bryce Harper because of how popular he is?

Well hopefully now Melvin is ready to admit that his team is no longer a contender. Zack really needs a good start...or should I say the Brewers really need Zack to have a good start against Philly. With Garza's leaving his start early and Dempster getting roughed up a bit last time out Greinke could really increase his value with a good start.

So in less than a month Thornburg goes from AA rotation to AAA rotation to major league rotation to major league bullpen back to major league rotation and now back to major league bullpen. This is exactly why I didn't like the move to call him back up and throw him into the bullpen. He has been completely void of any sort of routine for about a month now. What good has letting him pitch out of the bullpen done for either him or the team?

All these doom and gloom posts about wanting us to lose are ridiculous. I don't think you understand what we are saying then. Some people believe the Brewers are a playoff caliber team. Others don't. The ones who don't, myself included, are simply saying that the future of the franchise may be better off by trading Greinke. All that stuff you said earlier (improving the bullpen, finding a shortstop, etc) can still be done whether you trade Greinke or not. I just don't want to see Milwaukee hang onto one of the best available arms on the market so they can finish 3 games out of the wild card instead of 7 games out. It would accomplish nothing. The wanting to lose is more of us saying we want Melvin to sell and losing would convince him to do that. we resign Marcum (hopefully he is healthy) and then go after a FA pitcher and look for SS and Bullpen help Easier said than done. First off, resigning Marcum, especially to a multiyear contract, is risky. I'd certainly consider it, but it is risky. Then as far as simply looking for a SS, I mean, where exactly are you going to look? We looked all last offseason and came away with Alex Gonzalez. Who exactly are we going to get? And bullpen help too. We'll probably need at least two solid relievers and they are not going to come cheap.

The Pirates are pretty clearly playing over their heads, the Reds just lost Votto for at least a month(two series in which we play them), the Cards are close to us, banged up and old, and our August schedule consists of just bad teams or teams we're chasing. And the Brewers have been decimated by injuries and have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. If you are going to knock everyone else for their flaws you need to knock Milwaukee too. Look, this is most likely going to be the last time in the next 4-5 years if we don't re-sign Greinke that we're going to be competitive. We're constantly improving our farm system and have been doing so since the ridiculous Lawrie trade and the Greinke trade. Unless they trade Greinke. It's entirely possible that they could be competitive by 2014 again with Thornburg Peralta and all the other pitchers coming up. The ENTIRE reason people want to trade Greinke is precisely so that they aren't a crappy team for the next five years. That's what teams like Milwaukee need to do. Recycle talent. You seem to be ok with the Florida Marlins approach of winning big one year then being one of the worst teams in baseball the next 5. You don't build up a fan base that way. I am getting really annoyed by how you act as though anyone who doesn't think that Milwaukee is a playoff team and wants to instead sell off and get what we can for Greinke, KRod, Ramirez, Hart or whoever are bad fans or whatever. We just happen to think the odds of making the playoffs are low enough that we shouldn't waste a golden opportunity to improve the future of the franchise. People would kill Melvin for giving up Olt for 6 months of a pitcher but think Texas should give up Olt plus for a pitcher they really don't need to get to the playoffs in the first place. Texas is in a much, much different situation than we are. They have lost the last two World Series and are looking to get over the hump. They have probably the best farm system in all of baseball and can afford to trade away one or two of those players for an established ace. You say people would kill Melvin if he did something like this but isn't this almost exactly what he did in 2008 to get 3 months of Sabathia? The system was in much better shape then and we were trying to get over the hump (in that case the playoff hump). Olt is just a name being thrown out but quite honestly Texas has like 5 or 6 guys I'd like to see in Milwaukee's system. Let's not delude ourselves into thinking that the Brewers are going to pick up a ton of impact prospects at the trade deadline if the 'sell'. Why make Dean Taylor type trades just to pick up 'guys'? I'll take my chances on going on a run and stand pat. This is the mistake that most people seem to be making about those who want to sell. Nobody has EVER said make a trade just for the sake of making a trade. Obviously if the return isn't good enough you don't pull the trigger. But with so many teams possibly looking for pitching (NYY, LAD, LAA, Texas, Pitt, Bal, Atl, ChiWhi, Bos, etc) these teams are going to be bidding against each other. I'm not sure why you think it is so far fetched that we'll get one impact prospect in return for Zack Greinke.

As bad as this sounds I almost hope they lose the series in Cincy. I still do not consider them to be a playoff team and I am really, really worried that Melvin and Mark A. will grasp to any glimmer of hope they can find. Even if they win 2 of 3 in Cincy they'll be 7 games out of first place and they'll still be behind 4 or 5 teams in the wild care race. Meanwhile, the system REALLY needs an influx of talent, especially position players at the higher levels. Obtaining a Segura or an Olt or a Machado would be huge. How about Ramirez for Lee and Gould and Greinke for Olt and Loux. I would be very satisfied with those two deals.

If the Brewers trade for Hamels and Escobar I will call for Melvin to be fired. They are just finally starting to recover from all the other trades that gutted their farm system and they still have a long ways to go. Trading for Hamels will probably require Peralta/Thornburg plus Gennett and someone else. Trading for Escobar would probably require another pitcher (Jungmann/Bradley) and then some. As much as I'd like to see the Brewers win the Series (and trading for Hamels and Escobar doesn't even guarantee that) I am unwilling to trade something like Peralta Gennett Thornburg Jungmann and others to try to get there. Even if the Brewers become buyers I think the only positions they should upgrade would be SS and relief pitching. And I would not include any of the following players in a deal: Peralta, Thornburg, Jungmann, Bradley, Nelson, Gennett, Khris Davis, Gindl or Schafer. That doesn't leave a whole lot. Forget the all in. We tried that last year and it got us to the NLCS. We don't need to set the franchise back 5 more years to try to make one more playoff run. If we make trades I want it to be to improve the future. I am willing to give up the present to achieve that goal.

I saw that on twitter as well. It's hard to claim you are in play for one of the top two pitchers on the trade market and then say you refuse to trade any of your best prospects. Whether it's Greinke or Hamels, I would be willing to guess the Rangers would have to part with at least one of Olt or Perez.

http://tracking.si.com/2012/07/18/texas-rangers-cole-hamels-zack-greinke-cliff-lee/ Doesn't really tell us anything we don't already know, but it brings up Cliff Lee's name for the first time. The guy is owed a ton of money so I don't think it's most likely scenario. Still though, it would be nice if Philly started winning some games and got back into the wild card race so Hamels and Lee are off the market. I really think Texas would be the best trading partner. If we can get Mike Olt it would make trading Ramirez more of a possibility. Olt and Loux would be a very nice return.

Jimmy Nelson might be our top pitching prospect now that Thornburg is up. I don't think his name should have been mentioned in this particular context. You put him ahead of Wily Peralta? I'd like to see Nelson perform a little better in Huntsville before I proclaim him the top pitching prospect in the system. All I said was that I was hoping to get a #3 or #4 type pitching prospect like Nelson. If you think Nelson can be a #1 or #2 that's certainly your opinion but I think he has a ways to go before he meets those expectations.

Melvin's worst deal in retrospect was offering KRod Arbitration, which didn't seem like a bad idea at the time, but ended up costing a huge amount of money for mediocre performance. I don't agree. KRod had an amazing season last year. The Brewers really took off after they acquired him. He was very open about wanting to go back to closing and knew he wouldn't get that opportunity in Milwaukee. The market just fell apart for him. I think the chance of getting two draft picks for him was worth offering him arby. Plus, his performance hasn't been that bad. Quite honestly he's the best bullpen pitcher we have. His ERA in July is a shade over 2. In May it was a shade over 3 and in June it was like 3.27. Minus a terrible April he's actually had a pretty decent season. It's hard to say what the biggest mistake Melvin made without knowing all the trades he turned down. Of all the moves he did make, I think the Carlos Lee deal was the worst. Trading an all-star outfielder for a reliever and two below average major league outfielders who never did anything in Milwaukee was a huge mistake.

His value can't be that low can it? He has had an amazing career and is pitching very well right now. He could easily step into a closer's role but now he also has 8th inning experience. I have to imagine somebody would want him.