Greenleaf1

I think Vogt's claim was honestly just a matter of perfect timing. Bandy was struggling so much that he just needed to be sent down. There really wasn't an option to call up from AAA that made sense (maybe Garcia? But that's a risky call up even for a backup). Vogt happened to be available for relatively cheap, and surprisingly passed up to us on the waiver wire. He's pretty much the very definition of low risk, since with our payroll flexibility we could just cut him and call Bandy back up if he didn't work out at all. And now it looks like we've got a steal on our hands (obvious small sample size alert). His pickup just made so much sense, and is the kind of thing that can really help a 1st place team down the stretch. I do think the #1 reason that we have sticking power this year is due to our depth, and our ability to have quality Major Leaguers replace injured players even for an extended period of time. Vogt probably isn't a guy you want in there 3 or 4 games out of 5, but he's a great left handed complement to Pina and a quality veteran lefty bat off the bench, plus he's controllable for a few more years at a fairly reasonable price most likely (balance out his salary with Pina's and the cost of your catching corps is pretty cheap).

Holy crap, was at the game yesterday and Villar was such a bummer at the top of the order. 3 K's swinging to start his day, then a fielder's choice in the 7th inning that turns into a CS right before Thames jacked his 2nd homer of the day. If he's trying to steal in front of a red hot Thames, he better be damn sure he can make it. All I could think to say as Thames's ball was leaving the yard was "I hate you, Jonathan Villar". I know Sogard's injury is at least a silver lining in that it can give Villar some regular playing time for a week or so, but I'd still rather see Perez at 2B today and let Arcia bad leadoff with Sogard out.

Bullpen is starting to look a lot better recently. I like Barnes/Blazek/Drake/Hader/Hughes/Knebel a lot. Hughes and Drake have gotten so much grief this year on these forums, which has really surprised me because they've both pitched pretty well. If you take out 1 bad performance each where they gave up 4 ER in a single outing, Hughes sits at a 2.23 ERA and Drake (with the Brewers) at a 3.23 ERA. I'm not entirely convinced this team needs to go get any bullpen pieces at the deadline. Torres/Scahill probably aren't guys you want in there for a playoff run, but I'm comfortable giving some internal options the chance to stick for the rest of the year. I'd at least like to see Wang/Lopez/Archer given chances.

I'd go back and forth on this. On the one hand, clearly the #8 spot is working well for him, and also we kind of already have a good thing going with our top of the order (Sogard, Thames, Braun, Shaw, Santana, or replace Thames with Aguilar). If you're moving up Arcia, it's going to be to the #1 or #2 spots, and honestly probably not even the #2 spot since if you do that, you're going to have to bat Thames behind Braun and I don't think that's going to be the best thing for our lineup right now until Thames learns to stand on his own two feet without Braun's support, whereas Arcia clearly can get it done from lower in the order. So, for me, if you're moving Arcia up it's to bat 1st, but you've already got about the best leadoff hitter in the league in terms of OBP with Sogard, so there's no way I want to move him out of there. A good case could be made for letting Arcia bat 9th instead of 8th, and Arcia should definitely be batting leadoff if Sogard has the day off over Villar, but for now I just don't think there's a place to move him that's advantageous enough to take him out of the spot that's working so well for him. You could move up to 6th, but that doesn't seem beneficial enough to justify a move.

All 3 ER were given up in the 6th inning, and that inning included an infield hit and two singles described as "soft fly balls" by MiLB gameday, so it kinda looks like he was mostly the victim of bad luck. He actually had not allowed a hit until the 4th inning.

Scratch Wilkerson off the list of potential Monday starters, he went 5.2 IP and threw 90 pitches for Biloxi last night. Blazek and Burnes both pitched Wednesday and would be on regular rest for to start Monday. Jungmann pitches tonight for CS. If he gets pulled after a couple innings, you can pretty much count on him being the guy. Otherwise scratch him off the list too. Espino hasn't pitched since his 3 IP after Chase went down, so he'd be in line to start on Monday too. Suter hasn't pitched since Tuesday, so maybe he could go an inning tonight and still be in line to start on Monday. Lots of options, and a spot open on the 40-man.....I'm kinda hoping they go with Blazek and see what he can do. I'd guess it's between Blazek, Jungmann, and Espino as to who gets the spot, with the edge going to Espino just since he's already with the big league club and has started for us a couple games already. There's enough options right now though that I'd rather see what someone else has to offer and let Espino keep working on converting to the bullpen.

He's also pretty young and probably considered a bit of a project, as a lot of high school draftees seem to be. His stats aren't going to get better until he works with coaches to make the necessary adjustments. Obviously the Brewers saw something there and think that with good coaching they can turn him into something. At this point I'd just ignore him until the end of the year and see if there are signs of improvement. He still has plenty of time to figure things out.

For what it's worth, I believe the 40-man roster is at 39 after Franklin's DFA, so they wouldn't need to DFA anyone in order to add Blazek or Wilkerson to the 40-man. This open spot would make it very convenient to give one of these guys a shot.

I'm hesitant to give up Aguilar given Thames's continued struggles and the fact that even in limited playtime Aguilar looks pretty great (and has been brought in as a defensive replacement too). Given the fact that Thames's deal is pretty cheap by big league standards, if his massive troubles continue, I could see Aguilar getting a lot more playtime as the season progresses, especially if we continue to compete for the division. I have no problem with dealing Cooper though. We'd have to protect him on the 40-man this fall and he doesn't figure to get any playing time with us this year unless either Aguilar or Thames goes on the DL for an extended period of time (and even then, Cooper will maybe get a start a week). His AAA performance would make him an intriguing 2nd or 3rd piece to a bigger deadline deal though, and we wouldn't really be losing all that much since it's likely that Thames/Aguilar both figure to be better than Cooper over the long term anyways. Having a solid major league bench is one of the advantages of having so much depth in our organization. If we trade away our bench, that's going to do some damage to our ability to win games down the stretch as the wear and tear of a full season takes a toll on our starters. Aguilar is cheap and controllable for years and has already shown that he has an ability to do very well off the bench or in the starting lineup. There's evidence to suggest he'd make an above average regular if given regular playing time, I'd be hesitant to get rid of him without getting a really nice return (bigger than Jason Rogers. His success, like Rogers', is limited at this point, but he's doing what Rogers did with a much better power tool and probably better defensively). So, in short, I wouldn't trade Aguilar unless blown away by the offer (as in at least a very good and controllable bullpen piece or a top prospect), but Cooper is the textbook definition of dealing from a place of organizational depth, and it looks like the best time to sell high on him.

Usually when I think of these threads, people tend to hound the OP for not offering enough for an established player. If Verlander could be had for less than those packages, all the more reason to see if we can go out and get him. Or, potentially better, if that package gets us another $10-$20M in salary relief from the Tigers, that could work in our favor too. With Garza coming off the books (at least most of his $12.5M anyways), take $10M of that and apply it to Verlander and we're only spending another $14M a year for him on top of where we're at now. If the Tigers throw in $17.5M, that's $5M/year off for his last 3.5 years, and now you've got Verlander on your team for only an extra $9M/year over Matt Garza. Even in the worst case scenario of Verlander being a complete bust, the Brewers could make that money work. More likely you get an innings eater who's capable of a lot more than that.

Yesterday it was said that Woodruff should be available right around the ASB. This means that we basically need someone to cover for 2 weeks until Woodruff is ready to take that spot in the rotation. My vote would be for either Wilkerson or Blazek, as both have done very well this year. As much as I'd love to go with Burnes, I think that would be jumping the gun a bit and I'd hate to see us screw up the good thing we got going with Burnes right now. A year from now in the same spot and I'd probably say Burnes for sure, but for now I'd like to see some of these more peripheral guys finally get their shot, and it's been too long for Wilkerson especially. Monday would be Blazek's next day to pitch which works in his favor, we'll see if Wilkerson pitches today or not. If he doesn't, then there's your answer. In the short term, I expect they'll bring up another bullpen arm until they need the starter on Monday, probably Jungmann or Lopez (I'm hoping Lopez). Jungmann is probably the only guy currently on the 40-man who could be called up to start for Anderson, and he's done well too, but I just don't have much faith in Jungmann anymore and would like to see them try something else. I've always been a Blazek fan and I feel like he's gotten a bad rap because of injuries, but I think he has the stuff to really produce at the major league level if he can stay healthy. Never would've thought that he'd do it as a starter, but we'll see I guess.

He was 2nd in CYA voting as recently as last year. I'd say he still has some production left in him.

Could potentially lead to Verlander wanting that vesting option picked up in order to be traded. In that case, we'd either want more money included with him or give up less prospects. I still think the idea of going after Verlander is not a bad option to explore.

https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2017/6/28/15887202/mlb-trade-rumors-tigers-justin-verlander Verlander has 2 years, $56M left on his contract plus another $14M or so for this season depending on when he would be traded. He has a $22M vesting option for 2020 as well that would vest if he finishes in the top 5 in Cy Young voting in 2019. This adds a lot of money to his contract potentially but if that option vests I'm guessing no team would have a problem holding onto him for another year (at the very least you could just trade him that offseason, so that's a pretty solid option team-wise). The risks are pretty obvious with Verlander. He's 34 with a lot of mileage on his arm, but was great last year and not worth his money this year but far from terrible. Maybe pitching for a 1st place team would amp him back up down the stretch. He has the ace mentality, is an established innings eater, and might be way too expensive for some other contenders to take on his contract. This could lower the return for him prospect-wise if a team is willing to eat a large majority of his contract like the Brewers could. At the same time, this wouldn't seriously hamper the Brewers' salary situation due to the relatively short amount of time left on the contract. Plus with Garza's contract coming off the books next year, those savings could go toward Verlander for a few years. Plus now that Aaron and Olivia split up, Wisconsin could use a new famous sports wife.... Any deal back to the Tigers would certainly include a pitcher currently in our rotation. I'm guessing either Garza or Davies. Obviously if Davies was included it would lessen the prospect load we'd have to pay more than Garza, but Garza's cheap option for next year could make him a nice replacement in the rotation for Verlander in the short term (I'm admittedly not sure about what the Tigers rotation looks like right now and if there's a prospect that they'd rather promote). Does this seem like a deal you guys would be ok with? Would it require more prospects to get Verlander? Brewers get: Justin Verlander The remainder of Verlander's 2016 contract (~$14M) Tigers get: Brett Phillips Zach Davies Freddy Peralta or Brett Phillips Matt Garza Freddy Peralta Aaron Wilkerson Wei-Chung Wang I guess I just don't see the Brewers parting with any of their top name prospects except maybe Phillips given our outfield depth. If the Tigers aren't willing to take a volume deal but instead are looking for bigger prospects, then maybe a deal isn't possible.

Guessing that Villar has just traded being the SS placeholder for Arcia to being the 2B placeholder for whoever comes through our system fastest, whether that's Dubon (who probably profiles to be more of a utility guy), Diaz, or maybe Hiura. If Dubon comes up at the end of this year and makes a good impression, he could be in line to start at 2B next year, but trading Villar now seems like a risky move with no sure thing at 2B for 2018. If somehow we decide to sign Sogard (which seems unlikely but who knows), then I could see trading Villar in the offseason, but for now I think Villar stays where he is.

Santana's offense is more than good enough to make up for his defensive liability. He definitely seems to have problems with lack of focus or just lack of interest in the game around him (his out at home on Shaw's near homer recently comes to mind, but he's always seemed kinda lackadaisical in the outfield). I think Santana's long term home should be in left field where lack of defense isn't as much of a concern, but in order for that to happen we're going to have to trade Braun and that just doesn't seem likely to happen anytime soon. However, even in RF, Santana's bad defense doesn't really concern me. His bat is more than making up for it. As for Broxton, his defense doesn't really seem great this year, but he's one more extended slump away from losing most of his playing time to Brinson who should provide much better defense, and Phillips could serve as a great late inning replacement in right field in the future too.

I was looking at Travis Shaw on baseball-reference.com this morning and was kinda taken aback when I noticed he's 7-for-7 in stolen base opportunities this season. Then, coincidentally, I came across this tidbit from http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/in-celebration-of-the-brewers-and-twins/

I was going based on my original post, where I looked up the players personally, so this would be my mistake, but here's the mistake I made. Diplan signed with the Rangers in July 2013, so I had assumed he started pitching in 2013, which would make 2017 his 5th pro year. He actually didn't start pitching in the DSL until 2014, so you're correct, he will not have to be protected until the end of next year which is good because at this point that'd be a tough decision. While you're right that Nattino Diplan is eligible after this year, I didn't mistake him for Marcos because I never even thought to care about Nattino Diplan. So I'll scratch Diplan off my list of must-protect, and replace him with Nick Ramirez who I forgot about completely and based on the last Rule 5, lefty relievers in the upper minors are in high demand.

Bad news for Troy Stokes at Carolina. He's been having a quietly good first half to his season there, but with Ray/Clark/Harrison there now he probably figures to get his playing time reduced, unless they decided to promote Ray to AA which is technically possible but not very likely at this point (batting .191 in June despite a .333 BABIP). Hoping Harrison injects some life into that Carolina lineup, the top prospects there have been pretty disappointing lately (except, ironically enough, Lucas Erceg, who is batting .333/.377/.464 in his last 19 games).

After another season of production, it seems like Kyle Wren would be taken if we don't protect him. I thought he'd be gone this year though so who knows. Williams/Missaki are still injured and I'm not even sure Williams will be ready to start the year next year so I don't think either of those guys is much risk to be lost. Rijo/Taylor I'm pretty indifferent to, I can't imagine anyone would think either is worth a 25-man spot. Coulter maybe, but even if someone does take him I don't think it would be a huge loss at this point. Nottingham has shown real progress this season after a rough start, and might be working his way back into actual prospect status (I feel like I've heard he's getting better on defense too), so I'd definitely protect him. Peralta/Dubon are musts too. Diplan is obviously a top 10 prospect on some lists in the Brewers system but has struggled mightily now in almost a full season at High-A. I still feel like he'd be taken if he wasn't protected though, but if we put him on the 40-man and then have to take him off then he's open to waivers and wouldn't even have to stay on someone's 25-man for a full year in order to be lost, so that's going to be a tricky one. He's likely to drop considerably in prospect rankings by the end of the season too I'd think. At this point, without really thinking about the rest of the 40-man but just in terms of these players, I'd protect Dubon, Peralta, Nottingham, Wilkerson, Cooper, Diplan, Wren, and Wang. Some of these will likely be moot because they'll be up by the end of the year (most likely Wang, but Dubon/Wilkerson/Cooper/Wren could all get shots this year depending on injuries or how crazy we want to get in September). This is kinda just what we're going to have to deal with given our deep system though. The Yankees lost 8 players (!) in the Rule 5 draft last year, that could very well happen to us one of these years.

On Matt Pauley's podcast he keeps bringing up that the Brewers should consider dealing some minor league depth that we won't have room for on the 40-man this winter and maybe get some bullpen help or something small at the trade deadline that way. Some teams might just rather wait and see if they can draft a player they like in our system this winter instead of giving something up for them, but then they risk either us protecting the player or some other team taking them. We do have some guys who could be called up to the majors right now to help competing teams this year, or maybe other teams would be willing to accept prospects worth protecting on THEIR 40-mans even though we don't have room on ours? Or maybe we do the Manny Pina thing and make deals with players to be named later where the later is after the rule 5 draft to make sure they aren't picked. Here's a list of Rule 5 eligible players from the last draft: https://www.brewcrewball.com/2016/11/14/13621106/milwaukee-brewers-rule-5-draft-eligible-players Does anyone know of a good way to make a list that will include players that are newly eligible this year? Just from last year, I don't see us holding onto Wei-Chung Wang or Garrett Cooper, potentially Kyle Wren too. Based on a quick look at drafts and trades, here's the guys of note becoming eligible this year: - Devin Williams - Mauricio Dubon - Marcos Diplan (I think) - Jacob Nottingham - Freddy Peralta The list gets considerably longer the year after that. Devin Williams is not under any risk of being taken or added to the 40-man, but it'll be tough to figure out exactly what to do with those other guys. I know it's early in the year to talk about protecting guys on the 40-man, but it could end up dictating what prospects we make available at the trade deadline so it's probably worth discussing now. Would you be more likely to consider dealing someone like Freddy Peralta for something now knowing that he might eat up a spot on the 40-man for at least a year without contributing to the major league roster? Also of note, there are probably about 5 or 6 spots on the 40-man right now where it would be easy to trim some fat and make room for some of these guys too.

Well I'll be big enough to admit at this point that a trade of either catcher seems like a bad idea at this point. Bandy has declined big time.

Massive small sample size alert, plus years of evidence of below average player to the contrary, but Eric Sogard has looked really impressive in his time with the Brewers thus far. If he was controllable long term, I'd be really interested in holding onto him as a utility player, as he's a major upgrade over someone like Yadiel Rivera, at least on offense (and, again, for now at least). Unfortunately, he's a free agent at the end of the season, and if he's having a Gerardo Parra esque season (although definitely over less PAs than Parra had for us at the time we traded him), why not try to maximize value from him by getting something out of him on the trade market? The Brewers have been pretty good at maximizing value from players like this over the past few seasons (Parra, Aaron Hill, Jason Rogers all come to mind), and as great as Sogard has been, I don't know if I'm sold that he's the guy who will carry us on his shoulders this season to the playoffs. Also, once Villar comes back they will undoubtedly want to see if they can get him back to what he was last year, but even if that doesn't work out, Perez could see more time at 2B now that the outfield is becoming quite crowded (there's also Nate Orf and Ivan De Jesus at AAA who are both having pretty great seasons and could maybe provide small contributions as well if need be). I like Sogard, and I do think we're a better team with him and his value at the top of the order since joining us has been pretty incredible, but we're still way less likely to make the playoffs this year than not, and I'd hate to see him have an amazing season then walk at the end of the year and get his payday somewhere else and leave us with nothing. His value could be maximized by packaging him with someone else (like Broxton or Garza) in order to get a better prospect package from a team. I'm not saying I would be disappointed if we didn't trade Sogard, and we all know that Stearns is going to listen to any offer that comes his way, but I'm just saying that I think there's an opportunity here to turn a guy who I thought looked like complete garbage in spring training into something of value for our system in the future. What do you guys think?

What he got from the Astros for an already-in-decline Carlos Gomez and a completely replaceable Mike Fiers never ceases to amaze me.

Thornburg having surgery, out for the year: http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2017/6/15/15812222/red-sox-tyler-thornburg-out-for-season So the Brewers have traded 3 back end bullpen arms over the last season and a half. Smith/Thornburg will miss all of 2017 (Smith might even miss more), and Jeffress has certainly had his own issues on and off the field since being traded. Looks like we've certainly maximized value for all of those guys so far. Also speaks to how uncertain bullpen arms can be.