Greenleaf1

Damn, you stole mine

I'm going to remain cautiously optimistic until we see what he can do in Appleton. DH'ing in the AZ rookie league should be like tee-ball for the college player hailed as "the best pure hitter in the draft" by the Brewers.

I think if Burnes finishes the year strong and continues to lead the minors in ERA, we can talk about whether or not he deserves to be on the top 100. For now, I'm enjoying the ride and letting myself dream and be cautiously optimistic knowing that a lot of reports indicate that his stuff doesn't match up to the elite results we've seen from him over the past calendar year. His numbers were damn good last year too and even the praise articles about Burnes mention how much he has improved over last year, so it's clear that he's able to make adjustments and his peripherals indicate that he probably has the ability to be an effective MLB starter, but there's a reason he was drafted in the 4th round: people don't think his stuff is good enough to be an "ace". That said, Cody Bellinger was also drafted in the 4th round and that seems to be working out ok for the Dodgers. I'm not going to put a ceiling on Burnes' potential, and I do think that given his dominance this year that it's at least worth considering that he could be a #1/#2 in time. That jump from high A to AA is a big one, and Carolina is a pitcher-friendly park so the fact that he, if anything, got better in Biloxi is very promising (which may also be a pitcher-friendly park, I'm not sure), but I still do understand why one year's worth of results may not be enough to propel him to Top 100 heights. A good comp here is Woodruff, who was similarly ranked in the 20-ish range on our prospect list (even lower than Burnes, I believe, at this time last year), then after an incredibly good year last year, he made it into SOME offseason top 100 lists but not all. After a solid start in AAA this year, he seems to be making all the lists. If Burnes can continue this run for the rest of the year (not easy for a guy who's going to pitch more innings this year than he has ever in his life), I think we can expect to see his name popping up during the offseason. But luckily, his placement on top 100 lists has absolutely no bearing on whether or not he will be a quality MLB player.

Happ is probably the guy I'm advocating more the most at this point. I think his acquisition cost would be lower than a lot of the names out there, he has another season of control, and he has playoff experience in a rotation that could use some. I'd be interested to hear what the Blue Jays' asking price is for him. Would Happ for Broxton straight up be doable? Or maybe Happ for Broxton and someone like Medeiros or Yamamoto? I don't think it would take a top 10 prospect to get Happ.

I've definitely been advocating a Broxton trade this year now that it looks like a Braun trade is off the table for the foreseeable future. Brinson would likely do well there with regular playing time, but you also have Phillips and could even platoon the two of them in September. We currently have 7 Major League ready (or very close) outfielders competing for 3 spots. Braun is not tradeable, Santana better stay right where he is, which really leaves Broxton/Perez/Brinson/Phillips/Cordell (hell you could even throw Kyle Wren in there too as a 4th OF type), with Perez obviously not really competing for the starting CF job anyway. Every one of those guys is controllable for the foreseeable future. I think Phillips or Broxton fit best as trade candidates for this month (I really don't want to lose Brinson, and Cordell just isn't a big enough prospect to highlight a trade package). With how controllable those guys are, it also makes guys like Ray/Clark more expendable too. Clark probably isn't a strong enough name to highlight a package either (maybe for a reliever?), but Ray is and I think a package with Ray/Phillips or Ray/Broxton could be a very good start to net a controllable starting pitcher this month. Maybe something like Ray/Broxton and a top pitching prospect (Hader/Woodruff/Ortiz/Burnes) could get us close to landing Quintana. Throw in Wang or Archer as a near Major League ready bullpen piece (which always seems to be what the 4th man in these trades is), and that seems like a strong return for the White Sox while leaving us still in a pretty good position depth wise. We replace one of our top pitching prospects with an already established guy, lose some outfield depth which is OK and lose some bullpen depth which isn't fantastic but still fine and not the most important thing. If 2 weeks from now it was announced that we got Quintana for Broxton/Ray/Ortiz/Archer, I don't think that anyone would complain.

I think I'd be willing to give up Ray/Hader for Quintana, but Brinson would be untouchable for me. Everything about that guy screams perennial All Star to me. He is a guy who has shown throughout his minor league career that he is capable of making the necessary adjustments to succeed. I'm not wild about trading Hader, but at least with Quintana we'd be getting back a lefty. Maybe with Woodruff, Barnes, and Ortiz at AAA or in the big leagues next year, our upper minors pitching depth is good enough that we can afford to part with Hader, but I would hate to look back on this trade and really regret letting a future ace go (not saying that's going to happen, but it's certainly possible).

Lucroy not so subtly seemed to indicate after he was traded that he didn't like the Brewers very much and that he was happy to leave, so that probably left people with a bad taste in their mouths. He also talked openly about wanting to be traded before Braun set him straight that he was still a Brewer and needed to focus on that. To Lucroy's credit, between then and when he was traded he seemed like he had a pretty positive attitude, although his words once he got to Texas make it seem like he was just keeping it inside better. I also remember Lucroy having a broken hand at one point, and at the time someone told me it was what's sometimes called a boxer's fracture because, whatever his excuse was (I think it was that he dropped a suitcase on his hand), you only break your hand that way by punching something. So after that I always kinda looked at him funny wondering if he had an anger issue. I believe I'd just heard rumors here and there over the years too that he was kind of a gruff, prickly guy in general. So yeah, for the most part I really liked Lucroy when he was in Milwaukee, but I don't exactly look back on him too fondly as a person, despite some of that being based on hearsay. I'm also not on here bashing him personally but just trying to provide some context for maybe why others don't like him.

To be fair, one more win on any day before the ASB guarantees we're in 1st place at the ASB, but I agree that this one does feel important. Montgomery has good numbers but seems like he's had a little more trouble lately, and we're throwing all righties at him so hoping we can do some damage. Go Crew!

Interesting developments. Guessing it's Rivera because they only plan to have him up for the weekend and he's already on the 40-man and could be optioned back. Also for infield flexibility over the weekend (I wonder if he'll get a start over Villar tomorrow against the lefty?) If De Jesus was on the 40-man I'm guessing they would've gone with him, but not sure if he'd have options left to send him back down after the weekend. If it was just for a bat I would've guessed Brinson, but when you've got Perez to play LF when Braun DH's, I guess there's not much point to bringing him up to just sit on the bench. As for Reed being outrighted with no other move, that seems like 1 of about 3 things: 1. Rivera's only up for the day, and they plan on using that spot for someone over the weekend. 2. There's a trade or waiver claim brewing and they'll need the spot soon. 3. Now seems like a good time to try to pass him through waivers rather than waiting until we need the spot. I'm going to guess it's #3.

Just because we don't like Villar doesn't make us wrong. He did make a great defensive play. So far I don't think that outweighs his poor batting line.

At least one of our outs at home was Santana being lazy. If Sedar is bad, I'd have to be convinced based on his career performance, not one year. If we think bullpen pitchers have terminally small sample sizes per year, 3B coaches have it even worse. That said, I'm not sold either way. I was yelling at Sedar for sending Braun, then the play wasn't even close. Have to give Sedar credit for knowing Seth Smith there.

Honestly, the contention window has clearly already started. We are here, in July, 3.5 games up, competing for the division and catching up to the 2nd wild card. Our offense is definitely going to be our strength and it is controllable and cheap for several years yet. Our pitching isn't really playoff calibre in the rotation or the bullpen, but if Nelson/Anderson are for real (and they look like they are, even when Nelson has had flashes of greatness before he's never looked this good or this consistent), but we have quite a bit of upper minors depth there to help out this year and next year, plus a low payroll that will allow us to go out and bolster our bullpen as soon as next year, plus some minor league depth to trade for some help too. My point being: I don't see why Lucroy helps our competitive window at all. Pina is getting it done offensively AND defensively, he's cheap and controllable, and despite being on the older side for a new player, he's coming off a VERY strong year last year and has been really consistent this year. We've got plenty of cheap candidates right now for a #2 catcher with Vogt/Bandy/Susac/Garcia, plus Nottingham and Feliciano look like intriguing options for the future (and not even getting to Ghelfi/Houle as other interesting guys in the system). Catcher has become an area of depth for us, maybe not enough to want to trade any away, but I see us being able to fill the catcher's role internally for years to come, and I'm totally comfortable with Pina as the #1 for the foreseeable future. I just don't see the value in spending premium money on Lucroy, a guy who seems like he's on the way down but due to his previous success will still command a pretty decent price in free agency (and the Rangers certainly aren't going to let him go for nothing this month either).

I think at this point unless you're getting a really solid prospect back, hold onto Garza for the rest of the year and then possibly look to flip him during the offseason. If he finishes 2017 with an ERA around 4, his $5M option for next year would look pretty solid to a lot of teams looking for back end rotation help (including us, honestly). I think my days of frustration with Garza are pretty much over, he has been pretty solid and dependable this year and at the end of last year, and now that he has learned to pitch instead of just trying to overpower guys with stuff that just isn't there anymore, he seems to be having a nice little late career renaissance. I'm not sure I'd want to give him up this year or next year without getting something really enticing in return (definitely better than the return we got for, say, Aaron Hill. More along the lines of what we got for Gerardo Parra).

If Hiura turned out to be as good as Ian Kinsler that would be pretty dang fantastic. Still can't believe the Rangers traded him for Fielder.

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2017/7/6/15928642/brewers-lewis-brinson-isan-diaz-baseball-prospectus-midseason-top-50 What an interesting development. How does Diaz go up over 20 spots? He had a pretty good month or so to start the year as I recall but the bottom fell out quite a while back, and he's only now just starting to figure it out again. Also, is the Carolina League considered "extremely" pitcher friendly? I thought we were a fan of Carolina over Brevard County because it was a more balanced environment as opposed to the extreme pitcher friendliness of BC. FWIW, this is the first list where I've seen Mejia ranked higher than Brinson (#3 vs. #10).

You said the same about Segura too I bet right? At any given time, there are around 360-390 position players in the majors. In any given year, around 40-70 of them will have an .800 OPS season. There are very few who can routinely post .800+ OPS year after year. Villar isn't in the "year-after-year" group, but he's shown the ability to be a special player. Heck, he was a hair short of becoming only the third person in the history of the game to hit 20 HR with 60 SB in a season. Regardless of what you think of "old school stats," that's some rare company. That is why someone with the talents of Villar will get multiple chances, even if he has down years. He has shown the ability to do things that few people can do, and there is reason to believe that he will do it again. Someone will give him another chance in the hope that he will turn into a star. We'll see if that "someone" is the Brewers or someone else. I think at this point, unless Villar shows noticeable improvement by the end of the year, he's kinda played his way back into placeholder status, much like he was at the beginning of last year before Arcia came up. I'm sure Stearns didn't think he would be a total bust, but I don't think he was realistically expecting Villar to be a starting infielder with the Brewers for the next 5 years when he traded for him. Once the midseason prospect rankings come out, we're going to have three 2B in our top 15 prospects (Hiura, Diaz, and Dubon), and we're pretty set on the left side of our infield for years to come one would hope. I'm guessing Villar fights it out with Dubon next spring for time at 2nd, or who knows maybe we can resign Sogard for a reasonable price, but I think Villar's days as a regular starter are unlikely to return at this point unless he suddenly snaps out of his year long funk.

My guess is that Brinson doesn't get called up, and that Braun/Thames/Sogard all get a day at DH, and hopefully get Aguilar in there for a couple games.

Garza's ERA back under 4. It wasn't always easy for him today but he did a really good job especially in later innings.

Can you change a thread title to blue?

Drake's a reverse-split guy, his numbers against lefties are pretty good, and a lot better than his stats against righties. vs. RHB: 56 PA, .347/.418/.612, 14/6 K/BB (.455 BABIP) vs. LHB: 91 PA, .232/.300/.329, 25/8 K/BB (.309 BABIP) If anything you should be arguing against Drake pitching to righties, although his numbers there seem to be suffering from pretty bad luck if BABIP is to be believed. Anyways, Hader would be a great lefty specialist but most likely won't be used that way often, and Suter is now in the rotation at least for now, so I guess we'll still be using Drake against lefties, which looks like a good idea to me.

Burnes was pulled after 6 innings in his last start with a pitch count somewhere in the 80's, so I think they're already starting to control his innings. I think when Burnes comes up it'll be to start, and probably not until next year unless we have a lot of injuries/trades in our future this year. No need to rush him, especially since scouting reports seem to indicate that he's kinda lacking a consistent 3rd pitch and may have issues with consistent delivery. Let him polish out some of that stuff if possible and come up to the Majors a more complete package.

Just because Cooper is playing in great places for hitters doesn't mean he isn't doing well enough to merit a shot in the big leagues. People probably thought Sogard's CS numbers were BS too, then he came up and has done very well. You can expect a good boost in numbers at CS vs. other less hitter friendly locations, but Cooper's numbers are eye opening even given that advantage, and he has a track record of being a good hitter at every level. Do I expect 25 homers out of him in Milwaukee? Of course not, but I don't think you can just ignore his power surge this season either. I believe CS is not as big a boost for home runs as other PCL parks like Las Vegas anyways.

Basically Hiura would be a disappointment if he wasn't destroying Arizona rookie ball, but I think I would've been happy if he was hitting like .350 so obviously he's shown his skills down there so far at the plate. Hoping the throwing program is going well, obviously they're just keeping him sharp by letting him DH down there because he isn't even playing every day. More or less just want him to not have an extended absence before heading up to Appleton in mid August. He'll only get a few weeks in Appleton I'm guessing but if it's a productive few weeks and he's feeling good it wouldn't surprise me to see him in Carolina to start 2018 (although that would be unlikely if Diaz has to repeat there). I'm liking the 2B depth we have in the system right now with Dubon/Diaz/Hiura giving us 3 top 10 prospects at that position spread out throughout the minors.

This 3.5 game lead feels like the real deal to me now. I'd be very surprised if the Brewers weren't at least within shouting distance of a division title into September at this point. Let's bump this up to a 5 game lead, grab ourselves a controllable SP and a solid reliever at the deadline and steamroll our way to a division title!

To be fair, a short bench doesn't matter much when you are using the DH, since you won't need to pinch hit for pitchers. With 5 games over 5 days, my guess is they'll want to keep the 8 man bullpen, and the situation this year with Davies is different from last year I believe (he had already burned his 2016 option at that point hadn't he? This year he hasn't). I'm not sure a move is necessary at this point, even though Brinson is clearly killing it at AAA since being sent down and I'd love him up ASAP.