Spencer Michaelis

It's one of the most impressive arms I've ever seen on a minor league outfielder. Pretty accurate too, which is even more impressive.

Along with the Brewers trading for Matt Bush (converted SS) last year and Javy Guerra (converted SS/2B) this offseason, I honestly think it's something the Brewers see as a market inefficiency. My guess is they even drafted someone like Wiemer knowing that if they couldn't figure out the swing, they could move him to the mound where he'd be near triple digits with the fastball.

Junk slots at 28 for me. Seminaris at #41. Peguero is no longer a prospect, unless I am misreading his Fangraphs page.

I do think putting a 55 on his current game power is a bit much, though I'd probably have it at like 50, so that's sort of splitting hairs. I'm not sure I agree with the approach part though. Quero doesn't have an absurd ground ball rate like Mitchell does, and he pulls the ball more often than Mitchell as well. The GB% is more in line with what Smith put up as a minor leaguer (Quero is higher but not by a ton). Keep in mind that when Smith was Quero's age he was a freshman in college. He had 80 PA's that season and hit zero homers. He ended up hitting 9 total homers combined in his sophomore and junior years at Louisville in 400 total PA's at 20 and 21 years old. Quero hit 10 HR in 400 PA's in the minors this year and he was 19 for the entire season. Smith's MLB high in exit velo is only 109 MPH. Quero hitting one 106 MPH, in one of the few games the Glendale team played on a Statcast field, makes me think he likely has hit the ball harder than 106 at some point. That's not to say Quero will absolutely become Will Smith or that he's going to hit 25 homers in MLB, but I don't think it's nearly as outlandish as you seem to ?.

Looks like the remaining money may be going to Yunior Santiesteban per the below Tweet from Francys Romero: Romero also posted some video of Santiesteban in April and as you can see from the picture and might be even more evident in the video, he is a very skinny dude. But the tools are pretty interesting. And last, but not least Romero wrote a short article on him as well. If you don't know Spanish, you're going to need Google Translate, but it appears to translate pretty well. He ran a 6.4-6.6 time in the 60 yard dash which is elite by pretty much any standard. ARTICLE LINK

A lot of scouting reports said Keston was an average defender too. Pipeline said “He's an average defender at the keystone, where he has decent actions and footwork”. I can’t find the Fangraphs’ write up, but they gave Keston a future 50 grade on defense and they have Black as a future 45. Again, I’m certainly not saying I’m absolutely right about his defense haha. I’m a Brewers fan. I actually really hope I’m wrong. But since the first time I watched him play second for the Mudcats I have been worried about him being able to handle it. Obviously that could’ve been a bad game, but I haven’t seen much to make me feel better since then.

I'd put both Valerio and Black in the camp of negative defenders on the infield, so we may just see this differently haha. I agree it isn't a Keston type hole over there by any means, but Keston might be the worst defensive second baseman I have ever seen so I'm not sure that's saying a lot. Having seen Black in person a few times and on the broadcast a lot, I think there's more than just his size playing into the clunkiness, the reads aren't great for a MIF and he doesn't do a very good job with his footwork. I think his biggest redeeming quality on defense is that he has pretty good hands, which saves him at times. The hands are also part of the reason I think he would fit well at first. What you said is very fair though, and I don't mean to say that the Brewers should give up on him at second already. My personal opinion is that he needs a lot of work to be more than a serviceable-ish defender by the time he's in the majors. I do know that second isn't exactly a premium defensive position though, and if his bat is good enough (I think it very well might be), the defense will always be secondary anyways.

I edited the whole thing some, as I hit enter before I meant to lol. I think this offer at least keeps them on the phone but they do likely want more. It likely depends on how they view Avina honestly. Some organizations are likely salivating over his hard hit data. But others are likely pretty weary of his K rate. Some probably are in both camps lol. Tyler Black could be subbed in for Garcia too. If it came down to it though, I would probably include one of the three you mentioned.

Non Tendered: Brent Suter, Luis Perdomo, Trevor Gott, Jandel Gustave, Adrian Houser Trades Trade #1: Milwaukee Trades: Ethan Small, Eduardo Garcia, Jace Avina, Israel Puello Toronto Trades: Danny Jansen Brewers receive their starting catcher the next two years and the Jays get a mix of solid prospects. They may ask for a Tyler Black instead of a Garcia or something like that. I'm not sure this gets it done. But I think it keeps the Jays interested. Trade #2 Milwaukee Trades: Keston Hiura, Zavier Warren Kansas City Trades: Dylan Coleman Brewers receive a cost controlled reliever who has done quite well in the majors, and has good underlying data on Statcast. Royals receive a couple first base or DH only players with pretty interesting bats. Trade #3 Milwaukee Trades: Rowdy Tellez Minnesota Trades: Caleb Thielbar Brewers acquire a lefty reliever that's gotten very good results and the Twins get a bat that can sort of take over the Miguel Sano spot that will likely be opening up. Partially just making this trade to get to the budget... I don't think I'd make this if I wasn't trying to get closer to the budget. Free Agent Signings Signing #1 Jose Abreu (2 Years, $28 million total) Brewers get their 4 hitter and starting first baseman, where he's a big upgrade defensively over Rowdy. Going with $12 mil the first year and $16 mil the second, because Wong will be off the books after 2023 (also to cheat and help me get closer to meeting the budget ?) Final Roster: Catcher: Danny Jansen ($3.7M) 1B: Jose Abreu ($12.00M) 2B: Kolten Wong ($10.00M) 3B: Luis Urias ($4.30M) SS: Willy Adames ($9.20M) LF: Sal Frelick (0.70M) CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.70M) RF: Hunter Renfroe ($11.20M) DH: Christian Yelich ($26.00M) 4th OF: Tyrone Taylor ($0.71M) Utility: Mike Brosseau ($1.20M) Utility: Esteury Ruiz ($0.7M) Backup Catcher: Victor Caratini ($2.80M) SP1: Corbin Burnes ($11.40M) SP2: Brandon Woodruff ($11.00M) SP3: Freddy Peralta ($3.74M) SP4: Eric Lauer ($5.20M) SP5: Aaron Ashby ($1.20M) RP: Dylan Coleman ($0.7M) RP: Peter Strzelecki ($0.7M) RP: Matt Bush ($2.00M) RP: Hoby Milner ($1.00M) RP: Devin Williams ($3.2M) RP: Jake Cousins ($0.7M) RP: Justin Topa ($0.7M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.40M) Payroll is 1.85% over budget but feels reasonable, So I will not be making more moves to get below ?

Of course...seems unlikely he'll be playing much OF for the Brewers...and we've had perpetual problems filling 1B since Prince left and 3B since...I guess Aram? He was always productive offensively and...for the most part reliable(though not exactly Brooks Robinson at the Hot Corner). 3B doesn't sound like it's his ideal position, but if he can hit and has good hands, a less than stellar arm isn't a deal breaker(as Luis Urias can attest to). Ideally it'll be Devanney and then Black can slide in at 2B or 1B, but that bat+his walks should play all over the place. With Black, I've mentioned it before, but I honestly think first is the only infield position he will be capable of playing as he gets closer to the majors. Unless the defense at second has improved significantly, he's got pretty iffy defensive actions there (it looks really clunky) and his arm won't hold up at third. I think it's likely he's a first baseman who can play outfield (he actually looked quite good in center with the T-Rats). Hopefully he's decent enough to handle second in a pinch. That's about as much as I'm hoping for. His value is going to be in the bat.

Sticking with a top 75 this update. Not going to add as much of an explanation for my top 20 as last update, but if you're curious, you can look at the explanations from last time Here. I did toss in a few more tidbits for some of my favorites outside of the top 20 this time. TIER 1 70 OFP Jackson Chourio OF Easily the best prospect in the system. Possibly the best prospect in baseball who hasn't touched the majors yet. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TIER 2 55 OFP Sal Frelick OF Bat to ball and on base skills are elite. Good defender with a decent enough arm. Capable base stealer. Lots of Steven Kwan similarities, who is currently posting a WAR over 5 as a rookie. Not sure Sal will be *that* good right away, but it wouldn't shock me. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TIER 3 50+ OFP Jeferson Quero C I planted my flag on him last time and he went out and mashed to close out the season in High-A. This is a guy who could be an elite defender behind the plate with 20 HR power and limiting strikeouts. That's an all star catcher most seasons. Joey Wiemer OF Still incredibly toolsy, I feel comfortable blaming his mid-season struggles on the thumb issue that was putting him in and out of the lineup. He hit very well in AAA and lowered the K rate at the same time. Robert Gasser LHP After watching almost all of his starts at AA and AAA with the Brewers, I feel comfortable saying he’s the best pitching prospect in the system and that I think he will be impacting the starting rotation in the majors next season. The command did look a bit worse in AAA, but I think there was some fatigue setting in. The velo was bouncing around more than it did in Biloxi. I think he has 4 above average pitches in his Fastball, Slider, Changeup and Cutter. Fastball probably being the worst of the 4. He didn’t throw many curves for the Brewers, and that’s probably fine. It’s a mediocre 5th pitch at best. Garrett Mitchell OF As mentioned last time, Mitchell is an enigma to me. I actually think his swing looks pretty good, despite the weird step in the bucket and his propensity for grounders, I think that it is actually more of a consistency issue with his hands than his approach as I’d thought in the past. The K-rate in the majors is obviously a concern, but I think it will normalize. His speed is game changing. I feel better about him being the future center fielder than I did before his callup, which is not often the case. Eric Brown SS Brown technically got bumped back for me from last time, but that’s more about Gasser and Mitchell. I still really like EBJ. It appeared at the end of the season they were trying to normalize the load to something more “traditional”. Personally, I would have let that ride for a little longer, but I get why they felt the change may be needed. I will be interested to see how he adjusts to it to start next year. Jacob Misiorowski RHP In terms of pure ceiling, Misiorowski has one of the highest ceilings of any Brewers pitcher I can remember. He’s freaky athletic on the mound, especially at his height of 6’7. Fastball has regularly touched triple digits in his short Low-A stint and in instructs with high spin. A possible 80 grade pitch. The slider is a wipeout pitch with high spin as well, potentially a 70 pitch. The changeup has apparently looked serviceable as well. It still comes down to command. Which may take a year or two to start improving. It’ll be a waiting game, but a game worth playing. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TIER 4 50 OFP Brice Turang SS Turang was very up and down this season. Good start. Awful May and June. Fantastic July and August. Mediocre September. The glove is really solid and can handle any infield spot. I think there’s a good chance he’s in the majors in Jace’s role next year. Esteury Ruiz OF Fantastic to see the bat still perform outside of the San Antonio hitting environment. He still hit in Nashville. Not sure the glove will ever be very good or that the power will manifest in the big leagues, but he should be a solid bench player with the platoon against lefties, which the Brewers need (he crushed lefties to the tune of a 1.166 OPS this season in 154 PA’s in the minors) Tyler Black 2B/OF Nothing has changed since the last update since he has been hurt that whole time. Excited to see him in the AFL and see him get back out there. Bat will be a major league level bat. The glove is what I worry about. Carlos Rodriguez RHP After a slow start in Low-A, Rodriguez finished extremely well to get the mid-season call to High-A. What he did at Wisconsin was quite incredible. An ERA of 1.98 and a K/9 of 11.1 to only 3.2 BB/9. He has three really good pitches in his fastball, slider, changeup mix and he commands his offspeed really well. The curve is more of a “get me over” when he tosses that in, but it’s probably a fringe-average offering as well, with time to develop. Very excited to see how he does next year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Double-A assignment to start. Hendry Mendez OF His numbers don’t jump out at you but he was 18 the entire season in pro ball and was essentially a league average bat with a nearly even K to BB ratio. He rarely appeared overmatched and has a very mature approach. Mendez has pretty decent raw power, but will need to get to some of it in game, which I think he can. Baserunning was not great, but he is a solid defender with an ok arm. The bat is what will carry the profile though. Potential for a top of the order bat. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TIER 5 45+ OFP Logan Henderson RHP Pretty much nothing changed for me for Henderson from last time. He had one really tough outing in Carolina, but that will happen. I’m hoping for some solid results and experience in the AZ Fall League and to learn more about where he is at velocity wise now. Daniel Guilarte SS Stealing this from a post I made in July I don’t have many sources, but... "I have heard from one guy that I trust to be in the know, that the Brewers *really* like Guilarte. They told me that the Brewers think he can stick at short defensively and that he has a great arm. He's got plus speed. The issue sounds like it's similar to a lot of Brewers prospects, in that he hits the ball hard but is mostly on the ground and it's a slappy swing. If he can make a change and start elevating the ball more often, this could be a stud.” Jace Avina OF The bat cooled down after the first week in A ball, but he still had a 120 wRC+ there as a 19 year old. He hits the ball in the air a ton, and he hits the ball hard a ton. Now we just need him to not strikeout a ton. 35% K rate won’t work. But the rest of the tools are all there for a really solid player with big time, in game pop. Let’s hope we see some improvement in the bat to ball next year! Ethan Small LHP The command issues have been a concern for over a year now and it’s just gotten to the point where I just can’t see a great future for him. I always viewed him with some reliever risk, but at this point I think it’s basically his only chance at a major league spot long term. Some will point to Ashby getting opportunities to start, but Ashby has elite stuff. Small has mediocre stuff and a profile that was driven by his command… I hope he puts it together, but if some team still views him highly in a trade, I’d jump on that quickly if I were the Brewers Front Office. Stiven Cruz RHP Cruz was bitten by the HR ball in Carolina, but still showed a ton of good qualities, striking out over 11 per 9 and walking only 2.27 per 9. His late season promotion to High-A couldn’t have gone much better. He struck out over a batter an inning, still limited walks and also limited the homers (although only in a 19 inning sample). I think he will gain some velo from his low-90’s fastball once he puts on some weight. I think the curve and the changeup are both above average with a decent slider as well. Definitely a guy I could see having a big breakout if the fastball does make a jump in velocity. Justin Jarvis RHP Like Cruz, Jarvis had some issues with the home run ball this year, but he did make a leap in terms of his strikeouts and walks at High-A. I still see an elite fastball with lagging secondaries, but some improvement in the slider. Still see a lot of Woodruff similarities to the profile, but obviously a long way to go to be the current Woodruff. Eduardo Garcia SS Still concerned about the strikeouts and propensity for swinging at everything. It’s a really good glove at short though, with juice in the bat. If the approach can improve, there’s already a lot to like here. Victor Castaneda RHP Hedbert Perez OF Cam Robinson RHP Abner Uribe RHP Alexander Cornielle RHP Darrien Miller C Robert Moore MIF Luis Castillo OF Have heard he has some of the most consistently high exit velos in minor league baseball, but that it’s consistently on the ground. If he can elevate the ball more, there’s a lot to like in his offensive profile. Carlos Rodriguez OF Cameron Wagoner RHP I think this could be an absolute steal in the 11th round. He has filthy stuff. Apparently academic ineligibility caused him to be unable to throw in games this past season. I can’t imagine if he was flashing the stuff he’s shown in pro ball, that he would’ve made it to the Brewers in the 11th. Luke Adams 3B/OF The Brewers have done well with their day 3 high school picks lately. Adams got off to an extremely fast start in the ACL. Big pop, and appears to have a patient approach to go with it. I had assumed he’d move to the corner outfield (lot’s of Hunter Renfroe vibes for me), but I’ve heard positive early returns on his glove at third. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tier 6: 45 OFP Luis Lara OF Freddy Zamora SS Zavier Warren C/CIF Mario Feliciano C Cam Devanney UTIL Johan Barrios SS Quinton Low 1B/RHP Yeison Perez OF Matthew Wood C/1B Peter Strzelecki RHP Felix Valerio 2B Jheremy Vargas 3B Israel Puello RHP Wes Clarke C/1B Dylan O'Rae INF Jhonny Severino SS Joe Gray OF Ryan Middendorf RHP Tristen Lutz OF Ben Metzinger 3B Tyler Woessner RHP TJ Shook RHP Tayden Hall C/1B ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TIER 7 40+ OFP Brandon Knarr LHP Jeison Pena RHP Aidan Maldonado RHP Fastball velo isn't anything crazy, but gets really good movement and should break a lot of RHH bats. Slider shows flashes of being a true sweeper and could be a plus pitch.Changeup has shown big time flashes of moving like a reverse breaking ball. No command right now and doesn't take a ton off his FB velo. Curve is a fine 4th pitch that he used as his secondary in college. Guessing the Brewers will change that. He has already been working on a cutter (if there’s any good use for TikTok, it’s that there is some good video of Brewers minor leaguers on there). Really athletic arm that I like a lot. Yujanyer Herrera RHP Ernesto Martinez 1B Kaylan Nicasia SS Gregory Barrios SS Thomas Dillard 1B Patricio Aquino RHP Russell Smith LHP Edwin Jimenez RHP Will Rudy RHP Je'Von Ward OF Jadher Areinamo SS/3B Micah Bello OF Osbriel Mogollon LHP Lucas Erceg RHP Miguel Sanchez RHP Noah Campbell UTIL Miguel Segura RHP Satchell Norman C

Sorry if I came off as snarky there, but even in a side bullpen session, guys will purposely throw pitches that move out of the zone to get used to release and feel for those pitches. In instructional games they’re definitely not just going to want the pitchers to flip every pitch into the zone on purpose.

You understand the concept of competitive pitches that aren’t in the strike zone, right? The breaking balls all were in the zone a long time before breaking out. Throwing strikes is still going to be a challenge for him, but a video showcasing his swing and miss stuff probably won’t be showing get me over off speed pitches for the most part.

I made this observation elsewhere, but his power has seemingly started showing up about a month into each level so far in his career (though it's obviously a small sample and could be coincidence). I personally think the bat-to-ball skills carry him for awhile while he is finding his footing at each level and when he starts getting more comfortable he is able to tap into the XBH pop a bit more.

Well Jackson Chourio’s season is not over after all… My guess would be that he still starts in A+ again next season, but an 18 year old in AA is pretty dang cool.

Earlier today I noticed that Misiorowski was listed as the probable starter on Thursday. I don’t know how far in advance I should trust probables at that level but still seemed noteworthy.

That final pitch of the game did look like nasty off-speed, it was however 96 MPH, so... yeah that's a disgusting cutter ?

You're not kidding, Monty from Major League was better than this. Honestly making me uncomfortable to listen to ?

Interesting note on both Beymer and Vinyard. They were both on the Wabash Valley College roster in 2018-19, which is where the Brewers drafted Antoine Kelly out of that same year. Guessing they have been following both of them since that time. https://www.wvcwarriorathletics.com/sports/bsb/2018-19/roster

I think this one might’ve been the top 100 you meant to post ?. But Mason knows a lot, and gets as much college and minor league data as anyone, so while not quite the same as Baseball America putting him up there, it’s still pretty cool.

Went with a top 75 this time around, but added a blurb for my top 20 (which ended up getting long-winded as I typed ?), since that’s really what we’re voting on. The tiers are more important than the rankings in my opinion, but obviously when doing a list there has to be an order, so I tried to organize them within my tiers the best I could. Jackson Chourio OF 65 OFP There is obviously still risk here. He's an 18 year old kid. But this 18 year old is off to one of the best starts to pro ball, for anyone his age, in the 21st century. He shows bat to ball skills in every area of the zone, he drives the ball to all fields, he's athletic and should be able to stick in center, he does just about everything. The arm is average, but I believe it will be plenty strong enough for center field. Oh, and he also seems to have a hell of a lot of fun playing baseball. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sal Frelick OF 55 OFP Frelick surpasses Wiemer for me in this update, though I always had them in the same tier, I’ve actually bumped Frelick a tier above Wiemer. The bat to ball skills are just so much better than Wiemer. I think Frelick is going to be capable of hitting 15+ HR in the majors, but even if he doesn’t, this is a top of the order bat that could help the major league team as early as this season and he will be able to play an above average center field on top of it. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Joey Wiemer OF 50+ OFP Wiemer’s tools are so loud. He has one of the best arms in baseball. He is 27/28 on stolen base attempts this year. He can hit balls 450 feet. But the strikeouts are concerning. Over 30% in AA is not great. He had a really bad month to close out his time in Biloxi, but as some have pointed out, it did appear he was battling injury for much of that month and the swing has looked more like the violent whip that we’ve all come to know and love. Strikeouts will always be part of his profile, so if he can keep the K rate in the 30% range, he will be a good big leaguer. If it starts creeping up toward 35+, that could be an issue. Jeferson Quero C 50+ OFP Quero is one of my absolute favorites in the system, and I don’t think he gets enough love around here. A 19 year old catcher in full season ball, hitting above league average is pretty notable on its own. The fact that his defense is so advanced for his age makes it extremely exciting for me. He’s thrown out 31% of base stealers in a league that's rules have allowed base stealers to run rampant. Having watched a lot of the Mudcats games, Quero is in control behind the plate and in my opinion has a really good demeanor about him, even when things aren’t going well. I think Quero can be one of the top catching prospects in baseball by the end of the 2023 season. The bat will need to develop a bit more for that to come to fruition, but I think the approach and swing show a strong possibility of that happening. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Eric Brown Jr. SS 50 OFP Not sure many will have Brown this high. I’m planting my flag on this one. He was *the* guy I wanted the Brewers to draft after Cooper Hjerpe got picked (stupid STL). I love his profile. Extremely good bat to ball skills, high exit velocities, good swing decisions. He does need to get the ball in the air a bit more, but I think he’s capable of it. The weird swing setup doesn’t bother me at all, and I actually like the swing itself. Defensively he will either stick at short and be a good defender there, or be an elite defender at second. By all accounts the only real reason he might move is the arm strength. There’s definitely some risk that he never elevates the ball enough and moves off short, which would absolutely lower the value. But I’ve been a big fan since pre-draft and I will put my Brewer Fanatic currency where my mouth is with this ranking. Garrett Mitchell OF 50 OFP Mitchell probably fluctuates as much as anyone on my list. His raw athletic abilities are honestly absurd. The way he moves at his size is not normal. The results since returning from injury have been really good. I still worry about the swing, a 60% GB rate, plus 28% K rate will be a tough profile to be successful with, even with his 70 grade speed. Since he returned from his latest injury, there does seem to be a bit more intent to get some loft in the swing. Speaking of injuries, that is the biggest concern with Mitchell in my opinion. If he can stay on the field he can be a really solid player, even if he doesn’t elevate the ball a ton. If he stays healthy and starts elevating, his ceiling is incredibly high. Jacob Misiorowski RHP 50 OFP For the second pick in a row, the Brewers took the guy I wanted them to take. This is arguably the most talented arm in the draft. I’ve heard that some organizations view him as a top 100 prospect in baseball post-draft (which doesn't feel as cool to know, since it is now being reported by Joe Doyle lol). I simply don’t have enough of a sample to make that call, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if he was up there by the end of next year. His pure stuff is special, electric, etc. Whatever you want to call it, he’s nasty. He’s been clocked up to 102, and throws a wipeout slider. The Brewers apparently love the changeup as well. Command will end up deciding his fate, and whether he adds some good weight and can hold up as a starter. But this can be a huge coup as a second round pick. Tyler Black 2B/OF 50 OFP Black actually has a lot of similarities to Eric Brown offensively. Maybe the Brewers should keep drafting players with colors for last names! Doesn’t strike out much, walks a lot, doesn’t chase, and hits the ball hard but with a pretty high ground ball rate. Really, I view their offensive profiles very similarly, and Black has the advantage of being a lefty bat, and having a pro track record already. The reason I have him below Brown is simply due to the other side of the ball. Black has not looked good at all as a second baseman in my times watching him play. He has looked pretty decent in center field however, and I think the outfield is his more likely landing spot as a big leaguer. I could also see a move to first base. The bat carries this profile though, and I like the bat a lot. Robert Gasser LHP 50 OFP Gasser made his first AA start and his first start in the Brewers organization yesterday, going 5 shutout innings with 2 H, 2 BB and 5 K’s. He has a bit of a funky delivery, and from what I can see, I think he gets good extension and hides the ball well, which will help the fastball velo play up. His fastball velo was in the 93-95 range, touching 96. Slider was a bit slower than I expected (a bit more slurvy than a true slider), but it looked really good. Changeup showed some really nice flashes and the curve was a pretty solid fourth pitch. I think the Brewers believe in Gasser *a lot*. My first look has me feeling quite good about his future. Especially with the way the Brewers have been able to develop these types of arms. Brice Turang SS 50 OFP I went back and forth between Ruiz and Turang here, eventually deciding that Turang’s ability to play short and his bat to ball skills were just a bit more valuable. It’s been nice to see the power come along a bit after the month-long stretch with no XBH. However, I still don’t know that there will ever be a ton of it. I actually think I’m lower on his glove than most, but I do think he can handle short and would be a pretty solid second baseman. Overall, he’s probably ready for the majors right now and I think he will be a solid starter. Esteury Ruiz OF 50 OFP As I mentioned above, I went back and forth between Ruiz and Turang. Ruiz had 60 stolen bases in the minors by July 11th. That’s… A lot. He’s got 80 grade speed, but there are definite concerns with the bat. He did not hit the ball with any authority in the majors (SSS alert), and there has been a lot of swing and miss in the past. His numbers with the Padres org this year were insane, but in a very hitter friendly environment. I look forward to watching some more Sounds games and seeing what I think at that point, but for right now he’s comfortably 4th in the AAA OF group for me. Which is less of a knock on him and more of a sign of how deep that group is at this moment. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ethan Small LHP 45+ OFP I think there’s a pretty good chance Small’s best role will end up being in the pen. He could be a swing guy, where he makes some starts as well. The velo could play up a bit in a multi inning relief role though and he won’t need a third pitch as badly as he will as a starter. The changeup is really good. The slider is… not. With his command, it seems to be more of a mentality issue than a true inability to throw strikes. For those reasons, I do think he ends up being a one time through the order type of guy if he sticks in the Brewers org. Hendry Mendez OF 45+ OFP First, I hope Hendry is feeling better after that scary injury the other day. This is another example of the Brewers targeting guys with bat to ball skills and a patient approach. Mendez has been one of the youngest players in full season ball all season, and has carried a wRC+ of 108, with a nearly even K/BB ratio. There is pretty big raw power, though the swing isn’t tailored to get to it very often. He’s 7/15 on SB attempts, which is not good. Especially with the pickoff rules in effect at that level. But he’s a good athlete and the baserunning instincts could come around. In general, a good defender with a pretty solid arm as well. If he can get into the power without losing the plate discipline, he could be a big time prospect. Eduardo Garcia SS 45+ OFP Garcia, as opposed to Mendez, does not have good plate discipline or bat to ball skills. Striking out over 30% of the time and walking under 6%. His bat likely will always be pretty average. You hope the power continues to show up and that he can hit you some home runs and doubles. Garcia’s value comes from his glove and his arm. He can be a plus glove at short, and has a really good arm. 60+ grades on both. He seems to run the bases well, but his pure speed is pretty mediocre. The glove will be the carrying tool through the minors. The bat will need to improve for him to make any real big noise. Carlos Rodriguez RHP 45+ OFP I think, when all is said and done, the 2021 draft class is going to look really good for the Brewers. Rodriguez was the 6th round pick and is off to a great start in full season ball. A really solid 20 game (14 starts) stretch in Low-A got him promoted to Appleton where he threw 4 shutout innings with 7 K’s in his first appearance. Velo has been in the 93-95 range, up to 96 when I’ve watched. The slider is nasty, and the changeup looks to be a really good third pitch, almost looking like a curve at times with the big drop he gets on it. Solid results and really interesting stuff as a pretty young pitcher in High A. Lots to like. Logan Henderson RHP 45+ OFP Henderson finally made his Brewers debut yesterday after non-TJ elbow surgery had held him out. I loved this pick at the time, and he might be higher on my list if he had more innings under his belt and a pro track record. The changeup is a plus pitch. The fastball was only around 89-93 MPH in college, but he did touch 95 at times. The Brewers have done a great job of adding velocity to college arms, so I’ll be interested to see if that happens with Henderson as well. He throws a pretty decent curve as his third pitch. Mostly hoping we see a healthy Henderson moving forward. Jace Avina OF 45+ OFP The Brewers may have gotten a *major* steal with their Avina pick in the 14th round of the 2021 draft. After hitting 10 HR in the ACL with an OPS of 1.066, Avina got promoted to Low-A and in his first two games, he hit 3 HR and a triple off the top of the wall. There’s really big power, with an athletic body and an athletic swing. He has struckout quite a bit so far, but I think the swing will allow him to figure that out. He isn’t a big base stealer, but he’s got above average speed from what I’ve seen. He appears to be a decent defender as well. We will have to see how the strikeout rate progresses, but there’s potential for a big time bat here. Justin Jarvis RHP 45+ OFP Jarvis has had a bit of a breakout. I’m putting him up this high because of his fastball. I have it as a 70 grade pitch. The velo itself is fine, but nothing too crazy. I’ve seen him up to 97, but usually 93-95. The fastball has incredible life to it though, and the qualities that the Brewers have developed really well (Woodruff like qualities). His secondaries aren’t great, the slider probably being the best at slightly above average. He throws an average changeup and curve as well. Actually a lot of similarities to Woodruff at this level, but Jarvis has more bouts with command issues than Woody had while coming up. I have him this high because I think he’s the exact type of pitcher the Brewers are elite at developing and he’s only 22 with pretty good results at High-A. Victor Castaneda RHP 45+ OFP Castaneda has had a nice bounce back at AA after struggling with homers a bit while in Appleton. His velo has been 93-95 from what I’ve seen and the splitter is a plus pitch. I actually think the curveball has taken a slight step forward this year, which would be a big help toward allowing him to continue starting. Overall, I haven’t watched him a ton, but I do like his stuff and he’s had pretty solid results this year. Hedbert Perez OF 45+ OFP I can’t quite quit Hedbert. There are a lot of reasons for concern with him. A strikeout rate over 30% and a low walk rate is not good. He’s been a below average hitter all season. But a smooth swing and raw power that can hit homers over 110 MPH off the bat is always going to keep me interested. He’s looked good defensively, but his arm is very bad. He’s a left field only prospect at this point. I hold out hope he can turn himself into a Khris Davis prospect, with a better glove. Luis Lara OF 45+ OFP Felix Valerio 2B 45+ OFP Joe Gray Jr OF 45+ OFP Stiven Cruz RHP 45+ OFP Cam Robinson RHP 45+ OFP Abner Uribe RHP 45+ OFP ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tristen Lutz OF 45 OFP Carlos Rodriguez (OF) OF 45 OFP Freddy Zamora SS 45 OFP Zavier Warren C/CIF 45 OFP Daniel Guilarte SS 45 OFP Robert Moore MIF 45 OFP Luis Castillo OF 45 OFP Jhonny Severino SS 45 OFP Mario Feliciano C 45 OFP Yeison Perez OF 45 OFP Darrien Miller C 45 OFP Matt Wood C/1B 45 OFP Quinton Low 1B/RHP 45 OFP TJ Shook RHP 45 OFP Jakson Reetz C/OF 45 OFP Israel Puello RHP 45 OFP Dylan O'Rae INF 45 OFP Cam Devanney UTL 45 OFP Ben Metzinger 3B 45 OFP ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Edwin Jimenez RHP 40+ OFP Ernesto Martinez 1B 40+ OFP Alexander Cornielle RHP 40+ OFP Patricio Aquino RHP 40+ OFP Russell Smith LHP 40+ OFP Brandon Knarr LHP 40+ OFP Caden Vire LHP 40+ OFP Jeison Pena RHP 40+ OFP Peter Strzelecki RHP 40+ OFP Ryan Middendorf RHP 40+ OFP Thomas Dillard 1B 40+ OFP Jheremy Vargas 3B 40+ OFP Will Rudy RHP 40+ OFP Je'Von Ward OF 40+ OFP Jadher Areinamo SS/3B 40+ OFP Micah Bello OF 40+ OFP Tayden Hall C/1B 40+ OFP Lucas Erceg RHP 40+ OFP Miguel Sanchez RHP 40+ OFP Noah Campbell UTIL 40+ OFP Miguel Segura RHP 40+ OFP Yujanyer Herrera RHP 40+ OFP Alexander Perez SS 40+ OFP Gregory Barrios SS 40+ OFP Max Lazar RHP 40+ OFP Tyler Woessner RHP 40+ OFP Clayton Andrews LHP 40+ OFP James Meeker RHP 40+ OFP Hobie Harris RHP 40+ OFP Weston Wilson UTIL 40+ OFP

Here are his platoon splits. Definitely better against righties, but a near .800 OPS against lefties will definitely play too! Split G PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB vs RHP as LHB 73 259 231 76 15 3 5 26 23 33 0.329 0.391 0.485 0.875 112 0 1 0 1 2 vs LHP as LHB 46 92 77 21 3 1 2 9 11 14 0.273 0.38 0.416 0.796 32 0 3 0 1 1

I have heard from one guy that I can trust to be in the know, that the Brewers really like Guilarte. They told me that the Brewers think he can stick at short defensively and that he has a great arm. He's got plus speed. The issue sounds like it's similar to a lot of Brewers prospects, in that he hits the ball hard but is mostly on the ground and it's a slappy swing. If he can make a change and start elevating the ball more often, this sounds like a guy who could fly up prospect lists.

There are plenty of cases where a player may get *too* patient. Being willing and working to take more pitches, but still making quick and concise swing decisions on pitches you can do damage on is a tough balance to find. I don't know for certain, but I'd imagine there's often a dip in power when players try to make that adjustment. Hopefully he can find that balance as he gets into pro ball and get back to doing some damage, along with the decreased chase rate.

That feels *really* nitpicky. Rutgers was 44-15 and considered a pretty big snub from the CWS. Clemson wasn't great but pretty similar to UNC, West Virginia was pretty solid in a good conference. Wake Forest played in the NCAA regionals... Illinois was 17-7 in the Big Ten and 31-22 overall. This isn't like he was facing the Minnesota's, or Boston College's of the world. UNC was worse than most of the teams you called bad? Virginia was good, but nothing crazy. A few bad games and a chunk of good games with a lot of solid contact and even the UNC and Virginia games are a .300 OBP despite not getting the hits in that stretch of games.