Lathund

For a groundball hitter like Arcia speed also matters in avoiding double plays. Some are unavoidable no matter how fast you are of course, but they're so detrimental to offense that even legging out a couple that a slower player wouldn't can make a difference.

For a groundball hitter like Arcia speed also matters in avoiding double plays. Some are unavoidable no matter how fast you are of course, but they're so detrimental to offense that even legging out a couple that a slower player wouldn't can make a difference.

I don't have very high hopes for Vogelbach. But at the same time, Smoak looked terrible. His walk rate was way down and strikeout rate way up, so he wasn't just a victim of bad luck on batted balls either. Vogelbach is at least walking a ton and not striking out all that much, and does have power when he connects. So Isuppose it makes some sense to see if they can sort him out; league minimum this year and next, and 4 years of team control. So if it works out, he's here cheaply for a long time. My expectation is that he won't really be any better than Smoak, but there is at least some more potential upside there, however unlikely.

Changes to player evaluation and player development takes time. Seeing the impact of those changes takes even longer. Consider that Stearns comes in after 2015. Then it's a matter of getting to know and evaluating the setup for player evaluation and development already in place, to see how it works. He needs to get a feel for the people involved, who can help with what they're trying to do, who can be trained to help with it, and who needs to be replaced. Then the restructuring and changes start. Staff needs to be trained in the new methods and procedures, new staff needs to be hired, infrastructure investments need to be made, equipment bought etc. Once this all is done (And it takes some time) it needs to be evaluated and the inevitable growing pains need to be sorted. And evaluated again. What I'm getting at is that this all takes a while. I guess it's hard to say when such a process is even "finished", it's probably always ongoing, but what I'm trying to say is that there's probably not yet a single player on the MLB roster or even just beyond it who has been fully scouted and drafted and developed with the current setup in place. When it comes to the previously somewhat neglected Latin American operations, the prospects there who Stearns & his team should be judged on probably aren't of legal drinking age in Europe yet, let alone in the US. People around the game say it all the time, that the Brewers are one of the most advanced and progressive teams out there when it comes to development. We'll of course have to see what kind of results it gets us, if it starts producing hitters at some point and not just pitchers. It might or it might not. We simply haven't seen enough yet to know which way it leans. And while all this is going on with drafting and development the team has done very well over these four years, coming back from a rebuild almost instantly and almost reaching the WS. I have a lot of faith in Stearns. If the offseason acquisitions played even remotely near to their career or 3-year averages, this team would be in a good spot now. For whatever reason, they aren't. But that's the beauty of these 1-year deals with team options. You can cut ties after 1 year if it doesn't work out, no long-term harm done. If it does work out, you get another year. Some people use "Trust the process" as a meme, but it's one of the things I like about the way this FO is doing things, as frustrating as it can be at times. So I will. It's been 30-something games. Even less than that for Urias and Lauer who, it's worth pointing out, both missed spring training with injuries and summer camp with COVID. Chill. We all know who Zach Davies is. Command artist who makes the most out of limited stuff, but upside limited by said stuff. He's had a really good first 7 games. After 7 games in 2019 he had a 1.56 ERA. After 7 games in 2017 he had a 5.60 ERA. He's the same guy now as he was then. We've all seen how dominant he has been in stretches, and we've all seen stretches where he can't get anyone out. His ERA relies a lot on the low (.220) BABIP and on runs being unearned, and probably on the new home ballpark. It's perfectly fine to miss the Zach Davies we've seen over the last several years; I do too, always liked watching him pitch and he was a solid mid-rotation starter. But let's not make him into something he isn't.

From the Baseball Prospectus recap of the trade deadline: "Signed for $460,000 in the 2017 class, Puello dominated the DSL in 2019 mainly in part due to an invisible fastball that he threw at a high rate. He averages between close to seven feet of extension on it, making it appear faster than the modest 87-89 mph the radar gun suggests. He is throwing lots of strikes and is still young with physical room for growth." The invisible fastball and the extension sounds a bit like another young pitcher the Brewers acquired in a similar deal...

Santana is a 63 wRC+ hitter so far but who has been a slightly above average hitter in the past (including 2019) and is projected to be an average hitter RoS. Brewers DHs so far are at 73 wRC+, and most of the people likely to fill that role (Braun, Hiura, Narvaez, Smoak) are also guys who were above average hitters in 2019 and who are projected for roughly league average going forward. So while not all struggles have the same causes, and some might be more or less likely to be fixed, it would essentially be adding more of the same.

Domingo is hitting .157/.298/.286 in 84 PAs this year, good for a 63 wRC+. His BABIP is terrible so you might expect some regression, but he has also made terrible contact. Exit velocity is right at Eric Sogards career average. People remember 2017 Santana, but he's not that guy. I'd argue, and argued it at the time as well, that he never really was. Now of course there is a decent chance that he'll hit more than Jace Peterson, but I don't really see the point in signing a DH-only player who is, at best, a league average hitter.

Padres were the only team I could see who would be willing and able to trade for Hader. He would make a ton of sense for the Dodgers too, but they've shown over and over that they're unwilling to trade their top prospects so I don't see it as very likely.

One way to look at it would be through Statcasts "expected" stats. Brewers have the 3rd largest difference between wOBA (.291) and xwOBA (.327). To put that into more familiar terms, the teams closest to a .327 wOBA are the Rays and Braves at .324 and Nationals at .329; their overall slash lines as teams are .244/.334/.428, .254/.321/.448 and .268/.336/.443. While the Brewers currently are .212/.297/.380. Which is not necessarily as simple as saying that's what the Brewers true talent level is or that that's where they will or even should end up, but it does tell us something about the fortunes of Brewers' batted balls. However knowing that the Brewers can/should/will do better, even if accurate, doesn't really make losing to the Pirates much more enjoyable.

If he's trolling he has been dedicated to this forum persona for many years now, because it sounds exactly like what he's been posting at every deadline that I've been on this board for. Impressive dedication to the bit if he's trolling, but I don't think he is.

He went 0-6 last night, so clearly Brewers won the trade. As per the OP, that's how it works right? Let's hope we don't go back to losing it tonight.

It's hard to make a plan because we don't know what the 2021 pandemic situation will be like, if there's a vaccine available or not (and thus if there will be fans in attendance) will have a big impact on what teams do. But I will for the purposes of this assume in a normal (or close to normal) season. First I'd say the pitching side of things is looking pretty good. Anderson is the only FA, everyone else is either controllable through arbitration or team options. Hader and Woodruff are the only guys who'd see any kind of major arbitration pay increase. I'd stick with the young pitching, find the needed depth among Brown/Supak/File/BettingerBickford etc and only go for some smaller signings. Position player side has some spots to fill. I expect the catchers, Urias, Yelich, Cain, Hiura and Garcia (and probably Arcia) to still be there. If they finish strong, Smoaks or Gyrkos options might be picked up, but seems unlikely right now. So we're most likely looking for a couple of corner infield bats, an OF bat, and depending on the Urias/Arcia situation (and DH status) maybe a middle infielder too. Younger guys like Mathias, Taylor, Ray, Nottingham can provide depth. Beyond them not much in terms of hitters in the upper minors. Perhaps Cooper hummel and his 147 wRC+ in AA has an outside chance, but he's not on the 60-man so doesn't seem they are all that high on him. Basically, clear need is to get position players who can hit. Going about it the Free Agency route would mean either a similar route to this year and hope for more hits than misses or putting all the offseason money eggs in one basket on a DJ LeMahieu or Castellanos (if he opts out) or something. As far as trading goes, one way would be to try to find blocked players or post-hype prospects, try to find an Aguilar (Waiver claim I know, but the kind of player you can acquire without giving up a real prospect) or a Gio Urshela/Mike Tauchmann. Kinda what they did with Mathias, though have yet to see how he shakes out. This means trading some prospects, but fairly minor ones. I don't see giving up any of the few good prospects in the system as a good idea at this point; you can do that if the system is strong, but not now. And the other way to trade for talent is to trade from the major league roster. Of the short-term contracts on the team, Phelps (with his reasonable option for next year) is probably the only one who could get us anything decent, and even that won't really be a sure thing. A midseason trade of Anderson could be a thing if a playoff team needs rotation depth, but again don't expect much. And I don't want to trade any of the young starting pitching. So for me that leaves Hader. I think it's hard to find a deal there because he has 3+ years of team control and is the reigning 2x Reliever of the Year; it should indeed take a "bananas" offer. But at the same time, he's only a reliever with a wonky delivery and a relatively heavy workload; teams will be cautious about giving up a lot for him. Kind of has to be a perfect storm like the Cubs/Chapman situation for a deal to happen. Like the Dodgers being willing to change their philosophy on not trading top prospects due to wanting to capitalize on this year, or the Padres gearing up for a serious challenge over the next 3 years. But if it's doable, I think a Hader trade is the best chance of solving the major batting issues this team has. Of course the Hader debate, and how to value elite relievers, has gone back and forth here for ages. And of course losing him would be a significant blow to the relief corps. I just feel like the gain on the position player side could be much greater.

Tommy LaStella could make sense to upgrade the Sogard role of a LH platoon bat at 2B/3B. Impending free agent, and not a Qualifying Offer candidate either, so shouldn't cost too much. And on a half-joking note; Can we just sign the likes of Adam Frazier, Colin Moran and Gregory Polanco just so we don't have to face them in our annual Pirates sweep?

Yeah I've noticed that too. It's one of my pet peeves; both that hitters call for those late time outs, but most of all that they are actually granted. If the player is already in his wind-up it's your own fault if you can't stay ready for the 5 or so seconds you've been in the batters box.

You can't, you give up the DH if you move that player into the field. With a 28-man roster covering the pitcher spot with pinch hitters shouldn't be much of an issue, but it does need to be taken into account.

Excited to see Urias! LoMo being let go was also the expected move if another position player had to go. With the bigger rosters, DH spot, and Braun struggling to stay healthy it was well worth a shot to see if he could replicate his better season(s), but so far he could not. Smoak/Braun (and Gyorko as backup I guess) can play 1B, DH should rotate between Braun (most of the time), Hiura and Narvaez. Not really any room for LoMo.

I really hope this can be a confidence booster and something to get the offense going. 3-hit games for Hiura and Smoak, Yelich with a triple, HR and two walks etc.

Braun said all this made it more likely he would come back for another year. I think it now comes down to if the Brewers pick up the option or not. Originally I was expecting him to be done regardless (which Braun alluded to recently), but now I think the Brewers picking up the option may be enough for him to come back. If the Brewers pick up the option he'll be back for sure IMO. But I think the chances of them doing so are just about non-existent.Present-day Braun is not someone you pay $15m (Or even the net $11m compared to the buyout). But with the DH likely to be in play for 2021 as well, I wouldn't rule out them coming to an agreement on a lesser contract. Perhaps incentive-laden.

He didn't face any live pitching in either training camp. Players need some time to get up to full speed, hence the reason there is spring training (and now this year summer camp) in the first place. Plus we don't really know how affected he was by COVID. Young and fit people usually don't suffer too badly from it, but some still do. Possible he was set back by that too.

Here he is in Appleton yesterday. Surprised they haven’t called on him, I guess the fact Mathias can play more positions (including OF) might have been the reason they went with him for the recent call up. I guess color me baffled. We gave up a really good young player and a decent pitcher to get him. I can't believe he isn't a big immediate part of our plans. He missed most of spring training with a broken wrist. He missed all/most of summer camp with COVID-19. Is it really baffling that he's not getting called up straight away?

Thanks Devin.

Phelps only threw 9 pitches, wish they would stick with him. Williams always makes me nervous. Please Devin, make me look silly.

Burnes can't command his 2-seamer at all today it seems, yet manages to get by (albeit with very high pitch count). If he gets that 2-seamer working he'll be a nightmare to face.

The less said about the offense, the better. The first 8 hitters go 0-27, while the worst qualified hitter in baseball last year goes 3-3. Baseball. To find the positives, pitching overall was good. Woody was just slightly off on his command, and wasn't getting any of the marginal calls. Just a tiny bit sharper and he'll be getting so many called strikes with that fastball of his and constantly getting ahead. Despite that he had a good showing, 4 hits and 1 walk over 5 innings. Just ran up that pitch count a bit too fast. Glad to see Wahl (However briefly) and Knebel successfully make it back from their long injury layoffs. I've always been a believer in Claudio, and he really makes hitters look uncomfortable. Is there any possible 1-2 punch in all of Baseball that makes for a bigger contrast than Woodruff and Claudio? Both very uncomfortable pitchers to face, for very different reasons.

I don't think they'll ever have Ben Gamel as DH tbh. If he's in, it's because of defense mainly. If there is no Braun and no Urias, then I would think that either Morrison as at DH, or Pina behind the plate and Narvaez DHing. The rest of the lineup seems correct to me. Perhaps Sogard in there at SS righy (Hendricks) on the mound.