Lathund

Cardinals, Braves and Phillies have all lost already. Rockies are up by 2 against the Giants. Unfortunately the Sneks and Dodgers are at home to the Padres and Mets, but obviously in baseball anything can happen. As this game was a great reminder of. All in all, a very, very good day regardless of what else happens.

What a game. I'm literally shaking.

Hader has pitched 69 innings, 69 sub 2-ERA innings and most of them in games we've won. I really don't have any issues whatsoever with how he's being used.

17 pitches. Definitely sending him out for a 3rd inning. If he only ends up throwing ~30 pitches he should be available if need be on wednesday too. Heck, I might even send him out for a 4th if he keeps needing only 8-9 pitches per inning, but having Jeffress close it out is fine too.

Davies looking sharp.

Yelich has reverse splits, hitting .340 against lefties.

Thames is the obvious candidate. 2 1B only types on the roster, neither of whom can be optioned, is limiting when you prefer to run a 4-man bench. Aguilar is obviously a candidate too, but he's also seemingly better offensively as well as younger and under team control for more years at a lower cost. All of those things would outweigh the extra return he'd get. So trade one 1B, and instead put a proper RF on the roster. Whether that's a 4th OF or a Domingo Santana if he bounces back (I'm doubtful of that though) remains to be seen. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Corey Ray up a lot earlier than most people expect as the speed/power combination, left-handed bat and defensive ability in RF/CF is such a good fit with the roster, even if there would be growing pains. Anyway, if said RF isn't Broxton or Santana, then obviously look to trade them too. I'd also look to trade a starter, but at the same time you can't ever have too much SP depth. So it's all a matter of trying to piece together a roster with consideration for who has options and not, which young starters you want to give starting MLB experience to, who is healthy and who is not, who can do a good job in the bullpen. Perhaps there's a way to field a competitive rotation while at the same time getting the ones that don't fit in there a AAA starting role or a meaningful bullpen role. In which case you only trade someone for an overwhelming return, and I don't see one of those for anyone we'd want to part with.

Time to show the Cubs fans that Cole Hamels didn't suddenly become a sub-1 ERA pitcher just by changing teams.

Firstly, you can actually count out Suter. In anything other than the extreme best case scenario, he's out for the whole season. To me there are two questions to answer first: The first one is whether Jimmy is back or not. Due to how good he can be, that should be properly evaluated first and him being given every chance. The only other real personel issue is whether they resign Miley or not. Which depends on how much he'd cost, how sustainable you believe his low ERA to be with that K rate and ensuing FIP/xFIP (DRA likes him the most out of all the current starters though, interestingly enough) and how much they value the young starters. Looking at how committed they were to him during his injury struggles, I think the team likes him a lot. Anyway, I'll go ahead assuming he'll not be back. Chacin is a lock for next year. Nelson and Davies should be in there as well based on their record, and that any trade would be selling really low. Anderson is the one I'm not too sure on. Apart from the HRs he's mostly still fine, so depends on whether you think that's noise or not, and if it isn't then whether it's fixable. 3 years of control, with 2 of them team options, remaining means he's a possible trade candidate to someone who believes the HR issues can be fixed (Or to a team with a HR-unfriendly home park perhaps), but I also don't think the trade value is high enough for it to make sense. So I'd look to start the year with Chacin, Nelson, Davies, Anderson and Burnes in the rotation. Woodruff and Peralta as #6 and 7. I'm a big believer in the concept of having quality multi-inning relievers in the pen, not just mopup guys but guys who can do what Woodruff did yesterday, or what Montgomery does for the Cubs. I prefer that method of bullpen preservation to the AAA shuttle method. So if the team commits to that and give them long enough outings to keep them stretched out, I'd have Woodruff or Peralta in that role; probably Woodruff. Peralta in AAA to work on control and offspeed/breaking stuff to complement the fastball. As #6 and #7, the inevitable injuries and underperformances should see them both get plenty of time. Beyond that, Zack Brown could be this years Burnes, and should be knocking on the door as well. Houser, Derby, Wilkerson are in house options in the event of an injury crisis. A minor league FA bounceback candidate to be added for that extra bit of depth. Notice the lack of signings/trades in here. To me that's what you do only if the injury returnees (Davies, Nelson) and prospect arms (mainly Peralta, Woodruff, Burnes. But also a guy like Brown) don't pan out.

That brings Manny Piña up to 89 wRC+ for the year. Very nice recovery after a poor first half offensively. That level is perfectly fine for a good defensive catcher.

Might have taken until August 31 to acquire one, but better late than never..... Tbf I think that's the right way to go. A LOOGY is great to have in the playoffs, but a bit of a luxury to carry on the 25-man during the regular season. Especially if you're a team relying a lot on your bullpen, with a short leash on starters. I'd rather have another multi-inning reliever in the 'pen. Mind you I'm talking pure LOOGY here; a lefty specialist who's decent against righties and can get 3 or more outs is another story.

I think the Brewers pitchers as a whole are terrible. But yeah, Chase is probably the worst of them. I feel like Zach Davies is alright at it. Again that's just going by blind recollection, could be wrong. Was the league leader in succesful sac bunts at one point late last season, likely finished there too. So yeah, he's pretty good at it.

If this means no more Thames in the outfield I'm all for it, as well as another bench bat. I don't think I've seen a player mentioned as a great locker room presence or overall good guy more often than I have Granderson, which is another positive. It really is just a marginal depth move, but even marginal gains can add up when you have enough of them. Has some indirect benefits too, such as freeing up Keon Broxton to do more pinch running by having more outfield options. As for the cost; I said it in the Gio thread, I'm a big prospect hugger and would like to keep everyone. But there are a ton of outfielders ahead of Demi in the system. He's got the tools, and maybe one day he figures things out. If so, good for him. But the day, if it comes, where he makes an impact at the major league level is far away, and seems unlikely. I've been dead set against most major trades suggested, but todays moves are of the type I've suggested making; keep your top prospects, if you're making trades make them lower level lottery tickets.

Gonzalez has a good track record, was good as late as last year. Struggling this season, but perhaps Brewers believe more in his career numbers than this year and/or see something that they can fix, or simply something that they expect will change. One such thing could be that his BABIP is 25 points higher than his career average. Either way, I prefer him to second half Junior Guerra for sure. I'm fine with givnig up Lara and Harrison. I believe more in Harrison, but at the same time he's a 22 year old with a sub-700 OPS in A-ball, and the scouting reports I've seen don't rate him as a great defender either. There are other catching prospects ahead of him, and he's a guy who likely would be rule 5-eligible a couple of seasons before he's really ready to be called up. He was 41st in the midseason poll on here, 25th-30 or so in various preseason rankings I found. I'm a prospect hugger and would like to keep them all, but you gotta give up something and I'm OK with this.

A fair ball is a fair ball. It doesn't matter what the batter was doing ever (as long as he was in the box). The only place it would have mattered would be to the scorer, and they call debatable things whatever they please. If the ball had missed the bat it would have been a ball because he didn't offer at it. Since he didn't offer, it was rightly called a foul. If it somehow looked like a perfect bunt that rolled foul, it may well have been called out, but Cincy would have argued hard on that one, and with good reason. So despite his bat being over the plate, he didn't offer at it? This is getting laughable... It's not over the plate. Laughable indeed. Another way to look at it: Let's say the ball had been an inch or two higher and missed the bat; would it have been called a ball or a strike?

Jeff Sullivan wrote about this on Fangraphs, including some more examples (including from earlier in the at bat, and from other games) as well as a poll. Currently ~60/40 in favor of foul ball, so quite a divisive issue among neutrals as well.

In hindsight certainly would've been the way to go. I guess the thinking behind it was that with Burnes pitching yesterday, they wouldn't be looking for multiple innings out of him anyway. And had he gone 15-20 pitches he would've been out, making the double switch pointless. Then again, they don't lose all that much from doing it, unless the plan was for the next pitcher to go multiple innings in which case you'd have to let him bat or make another double switch, this time weakening the offense by bringing in Arcia.

Even Albert Pujols would be ashamed by that.

It looks like Lorenzen may have been using the bat to prevent getting hit so he was kind of intending to meet with the bat to prevent getting hit in the face. So by rule maybe still a strikeout. There's very little time to react in a situation like that. He was trying to not get hit while pulling the bat back, I don't think he was using the bat to prevent getting hit, that just happened. But let's assume you're right, and that he did make contact intentionally to protect himself. If that's the case, then the intent still wasn't to bunt, and so it's a foul ball.

This. As frustrating as it was, it was the correct call. He clearly pulled back and wasn't trying to make contact anymore.

Wildcard would be a success. If we miss out but with a record that 90%+ of the time gets a playoff spot, that'd not be a success but it'd be acceptable. It's amazing that we're even in a position to feel this way about this team though, with the start of the rebuild being barely 3 years ago. For 2019 I expect to continue down the same path, not much in terms of major moves unless a too-good-to-miss opportunity comes up (like Yelich this past offseason). Apart from Moose and Soria with their options, all key players (Well, unless you consider Miley a key player) are under team control for 2019. Looking at it by position: OF: Braun, Yelich, Cain to get the everyday at bats when fit. What I'd like to see though is a 4th actual outfielder on the roster (Someone who can play RF well) as Braun is unlikely to be a full time player, not just Perez or Thames acting as the 4th OF. Whether that's Santana, Broxton or an early promotion of a Stokes/Taylor/Ray or even a cheap outside move is of less importance. Either way, no need to invest any real prospects or major money there. Corner IF: With no QO attached to him, and a productive season behind him, Moose will be looking to get more than 1/$15m on the open market. I count on him being gone. Shaw should be the everyday 3B in 2019 as well. Having two 1B only (more or less) players with no minor league options is something that makes the roster rather inflexible, so as much as I like both Aguilar and Thames, I believe a trade needs to be made. Aguilar being younger, cheaper and probably better (Though I don't expect him to be the 140 wRc+ player he's been this year going forward) and seemingly less injury prone would make him the logical option to keep. If the return for dealing Aguilar is significant enough, I'd be tempted. But I don't imagine it would be. So trade Thames, and try to make sure there's a good 3B option on the roster to cover for both 1B (with Shaw there) and 3B. Middle IF: Well, if the above areas were relatively straightforward, this one isn't. Firstly, one needs to see what Arcia and Schoop do for the rest of the year. I didn't like the Schoop move, but he's also not as bad as he has been so far for the Brewers. For his career, he's roughly average on offense and defense, or in other words a 2+ WAR player. If he gets back to that level, he's fine as a bridge to Hiura even at a steep $10m. Noone should be giving up on Arcia, and with 2 minor league options remaining after this year there's absolutely no need to. But one needs to consider if he should be the opening day starter at SS or not. Mauricio Dubon should be given every chance to win a 25-man roster spot if he's fully recovered from his torn ACL. As bad as SS has been this year, I still think you see what you have in Arcia and Dubon first. If Arcia continues to struggle ROS and Dubon's rehab goes poorly, then you might want to reconsider though. So to sum up: If Arcia and Schoop look decent ROS, no big moves here either, and you roll with Arcia, Dubon, Schoop (and perhaps Perez in a utility role) until Hiura is ready. If one or more of them don't look like likely contributors, you consider a short-term move here. Catcher: With Vogt sticking around and seemingly being a big presence in the dugout every game, and not making another move at catcher, you'd imagine that there's a decent chance the club brings him back next year if he's healthy enough. Regardless of which, something needs to be done. I'm a believer in Jacob Nottingham, but I'd prefer to have him start in AAA next year as the 3rd catcher. There are a lot of catchers hitting free agency this year. Most of them are getting rather old and aren't exactly superstars, but among the following there ought to be a few that could improve us: Grandal, Lucroy, Ramos, Suzuki, Mesoraco, Wieters, Maldonado, Flowers, Ellis, Rivera. Or there's JT Realmuto, but I'm not a fan of giving up what it'd cost. So, finding someone to parner Piña who can get us a 90 wRC+ or better while playing competent defense should be the goal. SP: Chacin, Anderson, Nelson, Davies, Guerra, Peralta, Burnes, Woodruff and maybe even Brown. You have 5 proven starters (Though injuries to Davies and Nelson create some question marks) and 4 young guys who you need to see what they can do. IMO you add nothing now; you see what you have in those guys. If a couple of them turn into mid-rotation starters or better, you're set. If not, then consider adding. RP: Jeffress and Hader are among the best 1-2 punches in the majors. If that $10m isn't needed elsewhere, Soria can add to that. I have hope for Knebel. He's still striking out a ton, he's even walking slightly fewer than last year. If his straighter fastball, and the harder contact that he's giving up, is related to his injury there's a good chance he bounces back. That's potentially an excellent late-inning crew. From Barnes, Williams, Jennings, QTC, Ramirez, Thomson, Houser, Lyles you can probably fill out the pen well enough. But if there are good relievers out there for reasonably prices, snap them up. So, there's obviously going to be players improving and regressing from year to year. Anderson, Davies, Braun (Though he's certainly coming around lately), Nelson (through injury, obviously), Santana, Knebel, Arcia, Piña and Sogard were all major contributors last year who have, to varying degrees, contributed less this year. And we are still where we are. Some of them might be done, some might rebound. But what I want to say with this is that we're not succeeding on the basis of having a ton of players exceed expectations or overperforming; Aguilar, Guerra and maybe Jeffress are really the only ones. When talking about regression, people often only consider the negative aspect, but it is of course regression to the mean. On the balance of that, I'd expect that if the exact same roster returned next year, they'd overall see a slightly positive regression towards the mean. With even one or two moves to strengthen the most glaring weaknesses, I don't see why 2019 won't be as good or better than 2018. Sadly, the NL Central in 2019 still hinges on the Cubs. If they succeed in adressing their starting pitching (and they have the money to spend on it) then they are still the team to beat and the clear favorites to win the division. Baseball is still baseball, and anything can happen, but the Cubs are still very, very good and winning the division is difficult and unlikely for anyone else.

Debating whether he should be offered an extention or not is putting the cart before the horse to a degree, as I think the first question to ask is if Yelich would even be interested in an early extension. He's already signed one extension, I don't think he'll pass again on testing the free agent market. A pre-arb extension is a case of you get 8 figures guaranteed, avoiding the risk of being out of baseball compeltely and earning nothing, but delaying and risking missing out on big free agent money. An extension now isn't as appealing to a player like Yelich, as if worst case scenario happens and decline/injury hits and he can't get anything in free agency, he'll still have earned $50m and so there's a lot less risk in gambling on yourself and on free agency. So any extension deal will have to be a lot closer to market value to be of interest to Yelich, and then it all of a sudden has less appeal for the Brewers as the savings compared to the risk the club takes aren't as big anymore.

It's because there's no Thames in there. When CC needs to fit all four big LH bats in there, Yelich leads off so they can alternate L-R and have the lefties bat 1-3-5-7, so you don't have somenoe like Thames 8th. With no Thames in the lineup, you can have them go 2-4-6. I prefer Cain leading off pretty much no matter what, so I'm happy. Hoping the offense shows up tonight. While yesterdays game did get away from us in the latter innings thanks to a bullpen meltdown, fact remains that we only had 6 hits and 1 run, so even a good bullpen day likely would've meant a loss.

2 pitches, 2 runs. Not a half bad start. I mean I can live with it.

The issue with that is that a player on the 40-man would have to clear waivers to be included in the trade. Keon Broxton wouldn't. A DFA to make room seems more likely.