Lathund

Keon being traded was rather inevitable. Best of luck to Keon who was certainly a memorable player in his time here. That game-ending HR robbery against the Cardinals was one of my favorite moments of the regular season. Don't know anything about the players we got in return other than their statlines, but Hill's 15 K/9 and Wahls 14+ K/9 in AAA which is always encouraging. That also makes two 2018 draftees that Stearns has traded for this offseason, I'd imagine those were players who have been on their radar a while and perhaps just missed out on in the draft?

I'm a big fan of Greinke; obviously his approach to pitching, but how he works hard at and excels even at hitting, fielding and baserunning (Well, by pitcher standards at least). I also think he has the ability to age well. So I view him as one of the potentially available targets that will help this team the most, and would love to acquire him. However there's the small matter of the $30m+ AAV. Now I'm in the camp that believes that the Brewers *could* absorb that kind of money without going into the red. But that it would be a really tight fit, and one that'd be really tough to handle next season with arbitration rises incoming. And most of all that even if possible, it's a bad idea. So presumably any trade means Arizona eating salary, while not getting much in the way of prospects in return still. How much do they have to eat to even get one top 100-type prospect? Probably a lot. If the goal of a rebuild is actaully what teams state it is; a return to competitiveness but with significantly longer window (i.e not based on impending free agents, and with a prospect pipeline to fill the void that do open up), then pure salary relief shouldn't matter. I mean saving money during the rebuild only helps if it's used to go into the red in later years; which most owners would never do. Spending money during the rebuild on the other hand can improve it, by essentially buying prospects. So if Arizona are rebuilding for competitive reasons, then they have very little reason to trade Greinke for salary relief as they won't have too many other contracts on the books after 2019. Whereas if a couple of years of massive profits for the owner(s) is part of the calculation, then salary relief is of course high on the list of priorities. The likelyhood of a deal would depend on what their focus is. As for the trade propsed by the OP, Ryan Braun and his 10/5 rights aren't going anywhere. And obviously neither are the other big contracts on the books (Yelich and Cain) so that's a non-starter. But the idea of Greinke at $15m AAV is one I like a lot, and would look long and hard at to see if it's possible without giving up Burnes and Hiura (And ideally not Peralta/Woodruff either, but might not be realistic).

Worth pointing out that "Fangraphs" aren't projecting anything. They host two different projection systems on their site; Steamer (Which comes out very early in the season) and ZiPS (Which is in the process of being rolled out). Close to the start of the season they will combine the two, and adjust depth charts, playing time and such. Only then will things like likely platoons, unconventional bullpen usage etc. be factored in. For a team that platoons very little and that has 5 traditional starters who all pitch 180+ innings the projections will be fairly reasonable even now. But for teams like the Brewers or Rays you'll have to wait a bit to get accurate projections. Also projections are what they are; Up until something like 2/3 into a season they're still more predictive of rest of season performance than season to date stats are. We as fans will naturally tend to focus on the projections that don't agree with our views, usually the ones that underrate our own players. What a projection system can't do however is to take any kind of scouting data, or anything outside the game, into account. No projection system could say that since Wade Miley completely changed his pitch repertoire around midway through the 2017 season, he would suddenly have a breakout that went completely against his career numbers. Or that Tommy Pham got contact lenses. Or that someone revamped their swing. They also can't fully project breakouts, other than I guess with players who had a breakout year in terms of performance but not in results. And since using multiple seasons of data is usually more accurate, the projections for breakouts will lag behind some. Projections will also tend to cluster teams more closely together than how things end up. Which is fairly obvious when you think about it; a projection that results in a statline of .250/.350/.450 is some sort of mean outcome, or most likely outcome, from 1000s of simulations. DRC+ shows the standard deviation next to it's values, which is something that should be done more often. Anyway, because it presents like that, naturally the extreme outcomes, whether it be 2018 Christian Yelich or 2018 Chris Davis will be way off any projection. TL:DR: Projections are a lot better than most fans give them credit for. They also have some weak points, especially this early. ZiPS (Gradually being rolled out at FG) and PECOTA (At Baseball Prospectus) will be available soon and are usually more accurate. Some of the Brewers projection seems a bit off, but not egregiously so. A lot comes down to how playing time is distributed in the projections for instance, particularly with pitching. Another part of it is the defensive metrics; DRS, FRAA and OAA liked Brewers defense better than UZR did last year, and so that'll play into projections based off UZR too. It also seems to pretty much straight up translate FIP to ERA. Which is reasonable for players with little or no track record, but less so for those who have consistently outperformed, or those who play in front of a good defense. Aguilar is mainly down due to projecting a lower BABIP, which isn't unreasonable to do even if it may not end up that way. Some of the pitchers are a bit of a head-scratcher though I must admit. Also consider that the Reds have made several additions, so have the Cardinals. Brewers are likely to be more active going forward than they are. That'll play into it, and the other (IMO better) projections will also be a bit higher on the Brewers. Who will still be somewhat underrated by the projections; which I remember the authors being very well aware of last offseason, but which is hard to do anything about; start meddling with opinion in these projection systems, and they lose their value.

I don't think anyone thinks the Brewers (Or the vast majority of MLB teams) are financially strapped, just that owners sadly are not putting that money into payroll. All any of us can do is speculate, but I would be surprised if the payroll ends up above $115m, perhaps not even $110m. The fact that Brewers have invested in the Mudcats, Maryvale (and a second AZL team) and the Dominican facilities does suggest that Mark A isn't just after profits, but wants long term success. Which is encouraging. But it also remains to be seen whether he is willing to sign off on payroll spending; the above mentioned prospects are after all investment that increase the value of the franchise, something payroll doesn't.

This isn't really a serious suggestion as I doubt they're looking to move a guy with 6 years of control, but I'd love to see Willians Astudillo in a Brewers uniform. He's someone who's a bit of a late bloomer. Plays mainly catcher, but also played a lot of 1B and 3B. Whats interesting about him is that he's the anti "three true outcomes" player. His BB% is typically between 2-4%. Which isn't good. But his K% is also typically between 2-4%. Which is astounding. The man puts the ball in play a lot. A ton of IFFB too ofc. Has consistently put up wRC+ in the 120s in the minors, and had a wRC+ of 139 (In only 97 PAs) with the Twins last year. As for how good he is defensively I don't really know, he's got a quite, uhm, unique constitution for a baseball player. Decent framer apparently. Would be a RH bat-first C/1B/3B, which makes for a pretty good roster fit too. Like I said, unlikely to happen, but it makes some sense and he'd be an instant fan favourite. Just finished his winter league play: .325/.370/.500. 13 BBs, 4Ks in 234 ABs.

Based on their usage last season I'm not sure we have any reason to think Pina is our primary catcher and Kratz our backup. Wasn't it all pretty strictly based on who the pitcher was? Kratz caught Miley and Chacin, and thus ended up starting a lot more games. Of course it could be that the club paired them up knowing they'd see far more use and wanted that, or it could simply be that they had the best chemistry or whatever. Or perhaps it was a matter of Piña being a bit banged up. Either way, I think we'll see Piña catch a lot more innings than Kratz even if both are on the roster the whole year.

The "he" is refering to Lowrie.

Perez and Spangenberg as a platoon, playing to their career numbers (They're both 27, no reason to expect them to really decline), is essentially a league average regular. Or in other words 2 WAR more than what the Brewers got out of the position in 2018. A year when the Brewers did compete. Their numbers against opposite-side hitting was almost exactly the league average for all positions in 2018; and even when you factor in that they won't only, but simply mostly, have the favourite matchup it's still better than 2B average. And it doesn't require the Brewers to spend anything extra. They're essentially what Harrison is so why pay several million for what you already have? I'm also someone who expects Hiura to be up by the super 2 cutoff or thereabouts, and be our long term solution there. Or at least be given the chance to prove whether he is or isn't. Prospects are always a risk, but I'm looking beyond just 2019 and keeping all of Hiura, Burnes, Peralta and Woodruff (And their 6-7 remaining seasons of team control each) puts us in so much better of a position than giving up 1-2 of them for short-term fixes. And that's even if you put rather conservative projections on them. Lowrie is probably still my favourite option to adress 2B among them, as he plays 3B as well. When Hiura is up he can spell Shaw against lefties and can play 3B while Shaw plays some more 1B/2B against righties. It's a really good roster fit. Downside of it is that it doesn't leave much money for C/SP (Unless Thames/Anderson are traded), and I still don't want to give up Hiura as Lowrie is only a short-term fix. It's not a matter of not wanting to improve 2B (I don't even like Perez much as a player. His approach at the plate is infuriating sometimes), simply that I prefer to spend the limited resources available to fix other positions long term, instead of a short-term fix to a position where we already have what I believe to be a long-term fix that won't cost us anything. So it's not just the cost of the 2B player you have to consider, but also the opportunity cost in money, roster spot and prospects. I'd rather bet on the high-ceiling of Hiura and spend on a "sure thing" at C or SP. Can't get anywhere as a small market team without taking some chances.

Chacin has posted an ERA+ of 108 and 116, over 180 and 192 innings respectively, in the last two seasons. Apparently that's a #5 starter.

I'm intrigued to see how the 2B market plays out. There are so many ways to go, everything from the long-term signings like DJ or Marwin Gonzalez to the high-AAV short term like Lowrie (or Murphy, who's already signed) to the likely 1-year deals like Dozier. And then there's doing nothing. And I honestly think that's becoming more and more likely. Perez and Spangenberg are both around .740-.750 OPS against opposite-hand pitching, and both play in the vicinity of league average defense there. League average at 2B last year was .712 OPS. So if the plan is to go with Hiura at some point in 2019, they essentially already have their league-average 2B. And would then have more to gain by spending that money elsewhere. And to improve on that, while having somewhere to put that player and/or spend little enough that you can eat the remaining money seems quite difficult. The downside of such a scenario would be one that affected the team in 2018: 2B or 3B is still going to be weak against LHB. Perez is OK for one spot, but you'd want someone better than Spangenberg or Shaw for the other. But perhaps you live with that and let Shaw hit against LHP to see if he improves (The career .713 OPS in sub-500 PAs isn't as bad as I thought tbf) until Hiura (or Dubon) is up.

Now the following post happens to be about Keuchel, but it's really more about a Keuchel-like contract and how it fits the Brewers; Keuchel simply happens to be someone likely to command a Keuchel-like contract. With Soria, Moose, Schoop, Cedeño, Lyles, Jennings gone, and Domingo for Gamel, Brewers have saved quite a bit of money. The LH bats of Spangenberg and Gamel makes Thames more expendable as well. Now combine that with a deep playoff run, a new TV deal coming soon and an increase in attendance, and few long-term deals on the books; only guaranteed money beyond 2020 is Cain and Yelich. What you get is the possibility to add a long-term deal at a not-crazy AAV. 2B, C and SP are the obvious needs. 2B has an in-house candidate who will be cheap for years. While they may trade Hiura, that would also mean needing to spend on 2B in addition to whatever the C or SP they add is making. It just makes a lot more sense to me to, if you're going to spend money then spend it on SP or C and just roll with Hiura (And maybe a short-term solution there). So combining those two takes, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Brewers are genuinely in for a big C or SP, and among them most likely Keuchel. And that if there's a chance to seal it with an extra year, like with Cain, it might not be a bad idea. I'm more concerned with a high AAV restricting the team in the next couple of years than I am with the total value and length, soI look more at what the AAV ends up being. However it also hinges very much on how you project Keuchel going forward. Age in itself is meaningless, it's just a proxy for other processes. Some pitch at a high level into their late 30s, some break down in their late 20s. I have no way of knowing his health, how biomechanically sound his delivery is or how he'll cope with diminishing velocity. I just don't think there should be the automatic revulsion towards signing someone through their age-35 season, it all depends on the individual case. I don't know in the case of Keuchel, but I would imagine the team has a better idea. And as with all FA deals, you're usually getting a discount at the start of the deal and pay a premium towards the end of it. Teams are correctly wary of signings players long-term into their mid 30s. But if everyone avoids it, or prices that risk too highly, then perhaps there's an inefficiency to exploit. Now it could of course very well be that the idea is to spend that money on Jed Lowrie and Wade Miley instead, or something else. But I would be very surprised if the team didn't spend $10m in AAV in free agency. I think it's also fairly likely the team moves Thames and/or Anderson in order to spend even more. They could of course spend the money on players acquired in trade, but it just seems simply set up for some free agency spending to me.

Why can you see Hiura as a defensive disaster? The question marks about his defense were due to his elbow issues, which meant he hadn't played much 2B in the past. That is to say his 2B defense was an unknown, not a negative. He's coming off a full season playing mostly 2B, and most evaluators seem to rate him as an average defender at 2B, some as slightly below that. Either way, far from a disaster. And the elbow has been healthy.

I'm fine with extending Shaw a couple of year. The platoon split is a bit of a concern, but other than that he's a very good player. His game isn't in any way reliant on speed, and his good defense isn't based on range either (His range isn't good, but he's sure-handed and is an accurate and consistent thrower) so at least that aspect of aging won't affect him much. He's also increased his walk rate every year, and his strikeout rates are trending downwards too; 13% BB and 18% K is elite. A career-low BABIP (.242 compared to ~.300 for his other three seasons) is what kept his very good season (~4 WAR, 120 wRC+) from being great. Even if all those hits he "lost" are singles (And we know that the Mayor of Ding-Dong City and the Comptroller of Doublesville doesn't hit singles!) that's like a 70-80 point buff to OPS. If they do ban the shift (I don't think they will) Shaw is someone who will benefit a lot too. He's quite simply a very good player, underrated by many. I'm fine with not extending him and going year-to-year, but if buying out 2 FA years is possible to do at a decent cost, I'd do it.

Both Wood and Puig are potentially decent QO candidates if they have a good year though. Wood will turn 29 during next offseason and is a lefty with a ~3.30 ERA and FIP right now. Corbin had 3.91 ERA/3.65 FIP at 29 and got 6/140. Naturally that was based on people believing his improvement in the last two years was the real Corbin, but still; if teams believe Wood can stay healthy, he's likely to get a pretty big contract. And thus either get Cincy a draft pick or a good pitcher for a year. Puig is a bit trickier, but he has a 127 OPS+ for his MLB career, 120 OPS+ the last two years. Averaged over 3 WAR per season with the Dodgers, and that includes some seasons with little playing time (AAA, bench etc). bWAR/650 PA is 4.3. For comparison, Bryce Harper is at 4.5 bWAR/650 PA. Now I'm not suggesting he's Bryce Harper, there are reasons why Puig didn't get those 650 PAs per season, and he's a couple years older. Just that his antics and personality sometimes overshadows the fact that he's a very good player, someone who they could very well extend a QO to. So while there's the chance that they get nothing for them, there's also the chance that they get draft pick compensation, or that they flip them at the deadline if they aren't competitive. I don't know what the mood in Cincy is, but their rebuild hasn't really panned out, they haven't developed the pitching needed to be competitive. Might be that they really did need to speed up the process a bit. And they do have a good offense, with some good prospects like Senzel and Trammell to make it even better. With good pitching (They need to improve *a lot* from 2017 and 2018 though!) they could be a good team. Anyway, I quite like it from the Reds point of view. One can certainly wonder if it'll be enough considering that us and the Cubs are still very good, and the Cardinals have made some big moves (and weren't bad to begin with). But it's good to see teams trying to win too, a stark contrast to the current AL Central (And yeah, not saying that the Tigers, ChiSox and Royals didn't need to rebuild, just that it's a real bad situation when multiple teams do it at the same time in the same division). From the Dodgers POV it all depends on what moves follow. They've certainly been very inefficient with their high payroll over the last several years, seems like a lot of the upwards of $300m payroll has been spent on salary dumps, dead money and in other ways that haven't actually made them better.

As for the trade I'm fine with it. Santana or Broxton had to be traded basically. In return we get a pre-arbitration outfielder (Saving a couple million), with an option remaining, who bats left-handed. We don't really know which Santana we'll see in 2019 (I've been on the "trade Santana" bandwagon since midseason 2017, so pretty obvious what I'd expect) and so we don't know if it's an upgrade, downgrade or a wash offensively. Braun, Cain and Yelich play in the outfield when fit, so going from a RHB (On a RH-heavy club) defensively poor corner OF without options to a LHB with options who is a slightly better defender (FRAA and UZR say so, DRS pegs him in the same neighbourhood as Santana) likely makes the roster better even if the players themselves are a wash. With the roster flexibility, financial savings and a prospect coming our way too it's hard to find fault with this. Likely going to be mostly a wash, but it can make other moves better as well which could, if they happen, make it a better trtade.

High-80s fastball with movement, late round pick out of Harvard, multiple breaking pitches. Sounds like anyone we know?

A versatile LHB, with an option year remaining, for very little money, and with another year of control via arbitration. Young enough for there to be a possibility of improvement. It's a decent move even if that doesn't happen, but has potential upside. If it doesn't pan out, he stays in the minors for depth costing $250k. Very little downside to it. And remains to be seen what other moves are made. Agree that it's a possibility Hernan is traded, and we'll have to see about Thames. With Gamel also coming that's two lefty bats added.

Sure there are, but how many of them are really good - a significant upgrade on what a team already has as their starter? Exactly. Lots of catchers doesn't mean good catchers. Looking at Fangraphs, last year there were only 24 catchers in all of baseball to put up a WAR of 1.0 or better. Only 12 guys had a WAR over 2.0 or higher. Only three guys had a WAR over 3.0. There are lot of below average catchers in this league. That's why getting one of the good catchers (or a couple of average ones) is so valuable. Realmuto had a 4.8 WAR last year. Pina and Kratz had a 1.2 WAR combined. Realmuto and a backup improve the team by four wins. I use Fangraphs for finding most stats, but specifically for catcher WAR/defense I wouldn't, because it doesn't include framing. Baseball Prospecus' WARP does. And it's why you generally will see that catchers tend to hold a bigger share of the WAR(P) totals over there. Over time and over multiple teams, WAR(P) totals correlate well with total actual wins (But with the potential for some massive outliers) so it's not a matter of inflation, BP simply believe that catcher defense play a bigger part than FG and BR do. Anyway, they have 30 catchers with 1+ WARP (Which doesn't say anything about the catcher quality overall as I don't know how it usually looks by their metric), but they have Kratz 14th and Piña 19th by WARP. They still have Realmuto 2nd with an excellent 4.3 WARP, but here Kratz and Piña add up to 3.7 WARP. Whether the framing numbers are super exact or not, it just feels wrong to not include it at all when judging a catchers overall value as it has a huge impact. (WARP appears to have included DRC+ now, which also accounts for some differences between the various WAR(P)s). Obviously there's no doubt that Realmuto would make this team better, but I really doubt it's 4 wins per season better. And since a trade would essentially be about how many extra wins we gain over 2 years compared to how many we give up over 6 years, and how big a premium one is willing to pay for the fact that 1 win now (or soon) is worth more than 1 several years down the line, even relatively small differences matter in terms not only of how much he improves us, but how worthwhile a trade is. If the trade includes someone who would have an impact in 2019 and 2020 (A Hiura, Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff) then that factors into it too. A ~$6m salary in 2019 (And a few million higher in 2020) is excellent value for what you're getting from Realmuto, but it's also $6m less to spend on pitching or 2B/3B. If we have room to spend like $20m, that doesn't matter much. But if ~$10m is all we can increase the opening day payroll with then it matters a lot. So yeah, for me I'm still in the boat that I only really want to trade for Realmuto if it's for prospects further removed from the majors. Trading one of the young pitchers just leaves a hole to fill there, and less money to fill it with. Trading Hiura means a long-term hole to fill at 2B instead of a short-term one and, again, less money to fill it with. Rolling with Kratz/Piña/Nottingham (Or some other very cheap signing), keeping whoever of Hiura/Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff would have been needed to get JTR and adding the $5-5.5m saved to the 2B/3B pot to perhaps get Marwin Gonzalez or Jed Lowrie will to me be of bigger benefit. Possibly, or probably, still worse in 2019 than with JTR, but better from that point onwards.

Bat only hack would indeed be saying too much. But Baseball Prospectus, which is the only site of the 3 major ones to include framing in it's catcher valuations, rates Erik Kratz as the 8th best and Manny Piña as the 19th best defensive catchers in 2018. Ramos was 45th (out of 117); still barely above average, so not bad at all. But when putting together the defensive and offensive numbers, Ramos was worth 1.7 WARP. Piña was 1.6, Kratz 1.4. Now Wilsons last two healthy seasons in 2015 and 2016 were better; 2.4 and 4.3 WARP (Carried by very solid defensive numbers) but injuries do play into it; do they believe the dropoff in defense is temporary or not? Now I wouldn't read too much into the exact numbers; there's a margin of error, it's just a one-season sample, and while the little I've read on the framing metrics seems sound I can't be sure. But, that being said, the point would be that the value of catcher defense is underrated by many, and that it puts Piña a lot closer to Ramos than one might initially think. Most of the difference comes from framing. It's a small effect, but with the number of pitches thrown per team and year in the tens of thousands, there are a lot of opportunities. Brewers aren't using BaseballProspectus FRAA to judge their catchers, but they obviously have some kind of internal metric that lead them to Erik Kratz (and probably to Manny Piña) and that values those guys highly. Wilson Ramos and his bat would be an upgrade regardless, hence the reports of interest by the Brewers. And if they had more money to spend in the offseason he might have been a Brewer. But I would imagine that $10m would be a major chunk, if not all of, the money the club wants to spend in AAV for free agency. At least I would think that spending that on a RHB who can play 2B and spell Shaw at 3rd against lefties provides a bigger upgrade over Hernan Perez doing the same than Wilson Ramos does over Piña/Kratz/Nottingham. Another LHP might also have that effect, on his own and through the knock-on effect it has on our righties.

He hasn't been used as a LOOGY in the past, and I don't see why it would start now other than very occasionally. I imagine the vast majority of his outings will be full innings, when there's a L-R-L coming up. I also don't think he'll regulatly be used to go multiple innings, but I think part of the appeal is indeed that he *can* should that need arise. I think it'll mostly happen in the form of 4-5 out appearances, when there's a lefty coming up to start the next inning and such. Interestingly he is much worse against the 1st batter he faces than he is overall, and he pitches progressively better on 1, 2 and 3 days rest than he does on 0 days rest. Admittedly the sample for 0 days rest is below 200 PAs and for 3 days it's 90 so it may not be anything. But it might speak to someone who isn't ideal as a LOOGY, and should be used differently.

Look at what relievers are getting on the open market. There'll always be someone signed to a mionr league deal who has a great year, but if you want a proven reliever you have to pay these days. Claudio has significantly better numbers than Joe Kelly for isntance, who just got 3/25. Consider that we'd pay at most something like $8m over 3 years to Claudio, with the opportunity to non-tender in there. And that $8m or so is if he pitches well enough to get significant arbitration raises, which is a good thing for this team. And makes him very tradeable should things go south elsewhere. I mean it's 3 years of cheap control for a still young player. Look at what even rental relievers go for and the value looks really good to me. It fills one of the clear needs, and no money was spent on it. Spending prospect capital on this and money on 2B/C to me is better value than doing it the other way around.

Not a big fan of giving up draft picks, but he does have 3 years of control remaining. And while I don't like mortgaging the future, you have to keep in mind that this draft pick would, at the earliest, help us in 2021 (If it's a polished college player) but most likely 2023 or so if he even makes it. I want us to remain competitive for a long time, but that's the kind of horizon I'm fine with. As for Claudio himself I can't say I've seen him pitch. But a low 3s ERA and FIP is good, a ton of ground balls. vs lefties he's even better: .191/.220/.278. Aminor league option remaining for some flexibility. Some people in this thread have cited his 2018 stats; They're basically the same as previous years, simply got BABIPd.

My prediction is that the Brewers pick noone, and that no Brewer gets picked. Olczak is the only one I could really see being taken, possibly another arm to stash in the pen somewhere but I can't really see it. If anyone else gets taken then there's another team out there really thinking outside the box, or willing to tank hard.

Looking to move a player or two isn't the same as being in sell mode. They presumably know that they won't be able to extend every player entering free agency over the next few seasons, and perhaps they don't want to. So it makes sense to mvoe them while they can still get something in return, and avoid the expensive last year of arbitration so that they can perhaps strengthen elsewhere. That's something you can do in any part of the competitive cycle. Likewise, rebuilding doesn't mean you have to only sell sell sell.

He did in the second half of the season and the playoffs, which is what saw Kratz get so many starts as he was catching Miley and Chacin.