Lathund

Villar has improved his defense, but offensively he is the exact same player as he was in 2017, except with even less power. His offensive output looks better (89 wRC+ vs 71 wRC+) for one reason only: Higher BABIP, mainly based off infield hits. He has the exact same batted ball profile in terms of location and hard contact % yet is getting better results. We're now almost 2 whole seasons removed from 2016 Villar, and there are no signs of him coming back. The improvement from 2017 to 2018 isn't real, other than defensively. So losing Villar is not something I'm bothered with. Not a fan of the low-OBP swing at everything approach of Schoop either though, not even when it's working, but Villar doesn't factor into it.

Probably a dumb question, but is it basically a given that Moose isn't coming back in 2019? If Schoop sticks around, and likely promoting Hiura at some point, playing time will be rough; unless Shaw is traded which seems unlikely. But really, with a $15m mutual option, there are two scenarios; One is that playing time and performance makes it so that Brewers aren't too keen on paying $15m. If he plays well enough to be clearly worth $15m, then surely he'd want to try and get multiple years at that AAV on the open market. Didn't work last year, but there's no qualifying offer (and thus no loss of a draft pick) attached to him this year.

Below replacement level??!?! 11.2 bWAR for his career, most of that coming from offense. Unless you're confusing average (He's at 99 OPS+) with replacement level?

I believe there is a crazy stat that since Trout has been called up he hasn't gone more than 2 games without getting on base. Maybe it was 3 games, either way. Absolutely crazy Mike Trout is ridiculous. But he did have that 6-game hitless streak this year. Still got on base in 4 of them though, with 7 walks.

I wasn't a huge fan of the move or the low OBP either, but it's been 2 games. 2 games. For a guy who hit .293/.338/.503 last year and .360/.356/.700 last month. Maybe it works out, maybe it doesn't, but this is baseball, where even Mike Trout sometimes goes 6 games without a hit. So have at least a tiny bit of patience. That might be asking a bit too much of bf.net posters, or fans in general, though.

That sucked. Still, counts the same as a 2-1 loss and tomorrow is a new day. Still split the series at Dodger Stadium after beating the Giants so it's been a good roadtrip. Also; The Cubs lost to the Padres at Wrigley. The Padres who won like 5 games in July.

Thanks, I guess I thought pitcher WAR was heavily FIP weighed but I guess Broxton and Cain taking away HR's has to matter too. I was looking at BR before posing this knew I was missing something there and that was it. Baseball-reference WAR uses RA9 (Runs allowed per 9 innings) while adjusting for defense as the basis of their WAR (bWAR or rWAR) calculations, while Fangraphs (fWAR) uses FIP, though they also offer RA9-based version. Baseball Prospectus uses their own DRA (Deserved Run Average) stat as the basis for their WARP. They use different, but very similar for bWAR and fWAR, calculations for offense as well. Less similar (DRS (bWAR) vs UZR (fWAR)) for defense, and I'm not quite sure about baserunning. I believe the only one that really tries to capture a catchers value, including framing, is WARP. For position players, due to DRS and UZR sometimes differing a lot, I think it's usually best to average out bWAR and fWAR. For instance, Cain leads the NL with 5.3 bWAR (Carpenter and Freeman follow at 4.6) but is 6th in fWAR at 3.6, with Arenado (4.4) and Freeman (4.3) at the top. For similar reasons, always remember that small differences in WAR aren't very meaningful; you can't say that a 4.3 WAR player is better than a 3.9 WAR player, just that they're both in all likelyhood better (or were more valuable in the time period being compared) than a 2.5 WAR player. It's just a rough estimate of their combined worth over a certain period of time. For pitchers, fWAR and BWARP would be better at predicting future performances and isolates actual pitcher performance better, but bWAR reflects the outcome and results better. And for comparing catchers only WARP really even tries to properly value defense at the position. Sadly, I find the Baseball Prospectus stat pages to be very user-unfriendly and clunky.

From Ken Rosenthals trade deadline roundup on TheAthletic:

1. Keston Hiura 2. Corbin Burnes 3. Corey Ray 4. Zack Brown 5. Tristen Lutz 6. Mauricio Dubon 7. Lucas Erceg 8. Jacob Nottingham 9. Trey Supak 10. Brice Turang 11. Michele Vassalotti 12. Mario Feliciano 13. Cameron Roegner 14. Carlos Rodriguez 15. Chad McClanahan 16. Caden Lemons 17. Nate Kirby 18. Quentin Torres-Costa 19. Jake Gatewood 20. Payton Henry 21. Yeison Coca 22. Trent Grisham 23. Troy Stokes Jr 24. Larry Ernesto 25. Cooper Hummel 26. Jake Hager 27. Dylan Moore 28. Nick Ramirez 29. KJ Harrison 30. Joantgel Segovia

Not keen on another guy who doesn't get on base. And what other moves will this facilitate? For the infield this means Thames/Aguilar, Schoop, Arcia, Shaw, Moustakas. One of Perez or Saladino would have to be retained to backup SS as they don't see to like Villar there. Saladino can be optioned so he could be retained, but surely this would mean DFA for Perez or Villar, losing them for nothing?

Frangraphs has updated The Board. Brewers: 19 Hiura (60 FV) 33 Burnes (55 FV) 69 Lutz (50 FV) 90 Ray (50 FV) Those are the 4 Brewers among the 131 ranked prospects with 50 FV or higher. They then list a group of ~40 prospects with a 45+ FV seemingly in no particular order, which includes Peralta as well. Could add that only Vlad Jr (70), Tatis Jr, Jimenez and Robles (all 65) are above 60 in this ranking.

Out of the targets flying around, Gausman might be the one that makes the most sense to me. Archer would too, but I would think the price would be too steep. I would think one of them would be the preferred target, as in a starter controllable for several years. If no target like that is available for a sensible cost, I think they turn to a cheap rental; if there are any good ones left. I think one starter will be the only move made.

Couldn't the guy in question have gotten it from the Royals side? Which wouldn't say anything about his reliability in Brewers trades in general.

It's 2+ years, not 3. He'll be at little over 4 years service time come the end of this season. At 3 or especially 4 years I'd be a lot more interested. The way these trades works you pay a lot less for the 3rd or 4th year than you do the 1st and 2nd. Not that there is a similar catcher available with that kind of control of course, so there aren't many options. But I'd rather make no deal than a bad deal.

I like Archer more than most here seem to do. His peripherals (FIP, DRA and such) are good, and he also has pitched a lot better against opponents outside the AL East. Combine that with a better defense and a good pitching coach (Tho they've certainly been developing a lot of pitching in Tampa, so perhaps that aspect isn't as big) and I think he'll be a very good pitcher here. But with all the interest in him, I just don't see how it gets done at even close to reasonable cost.

I'm very hesitant to move our top prospects (I'd have Ray at #3 behind Burnes and Hiura at this point) for little over one year of team control. If a deal has to include one of the top guys, then it needs to be for more years. And it wouldn't be only Ray of course, I can't see them making that trade without including an advanced pitching prospect. Knowing the Mets, that likely means the asking price for Wheeler is something like: 1B-Jesus Aguilar 2B-Keston Hiura RHP-Corbin Burnes RHP-Freddy Peralta OF-Corey Ray And they will include Wilmer Flores along with Wheeler to make the Brewers feel like they got a real bargain. If that's the asking price, counter with: 1B-Ryan Braun 2B-Eric Sogard LHP-Wade Miley RHP-Tim Dillard OF-Keon Broxton and tell them that they can keep Wilmer Flores, to make the Mets feel like they got a real bargain. Dim Tillard is a dealbreaker. Would seriously hurt our social media game. I would only ever make that move if we had a trade for Brandon McCarthy or Sean Doolittle (And their wives) lined up.

What's promising about the K rate is that Ray moved up a level, and the K% went down 3%. An ability to adapt, even when challenged, is promising.

I'm always a proponent of batting the pitcher 8th, so I'd have Arcia 9th.

Wouldn't that have meant that Perez gets a 5 year extension, Arcia is traded and Stokes being promoted to play CF?

I'll trust that Stearns knows what he's doing, but this is a deal I personally don't understand. I don't see how Shaw would be a decent 2B, and I'm not sure the dropoff in defense is made up for by Moose's bat either. Adding another guy who gets on base at a below-average rate is not what I'd want to see when we really struggle with that aspect, with keeping rallies going, with working counts and knocking out starters. But someone made a good point earlier about the park factors, going from one of the worst for LHH to one of the best. I'd prefer to just get Dozier and kept Shaw where he is. What makes me feel a bit better at least is that this is not a hastily made move; there was speculations about this already in the offseason. And Shaw with the grounders at 2nd and all. So they've thought about this for a while, so clearly they like Moose. As for the deal itself; I like Phillips and that sweet cannon of his, but he was seriously blocked, and the swing-and-miss in his game makes it unlikely to see him hit well enough to be more than a 4th OF. Hoping he gets a chance to play regularly in KC and a chance to prove me wrong. Lopez would be out of options next year, and would have to be either kept on the 25-man or DFAd. So that makes sense as well.

In addition to what others said about potentially not exercising the option which would free up a slot, even keeping him in a way frees up a slot indirectly. As in it would be used on a player who would contribute to the major league club (I mean it's possible Kodi would've too, but also very possible he wouldn't). Spending a 40-man spot on someone who will be in the minors all year means you need another player in that position for the 25-man roster. Soria makes another reliever expendable, and in a way saves a spot that way.

If they view Kodi as a future reliever then I'm perfectly fine with this. Gotta deal with the 40-man roster situation somehow. Soria has been great this year, giving any high leverage innings Barnes or Williams would have to him is a big improvement. That he has a team option (albeit an expensive one) for 2019 is what makes the deal really worth it IMO.

I'd be OK with that, even though as with all rentals, value-wise, it's always too much. Both are rule 5 eligible this year, and while I think neither one would actually be taken if left unprotected (As they should be) I think it would be a prudent move to get at least something for them now.

He hits the ball hard, 11th highest average exit velocity in the majors. I'm not bothered that there are a lot of ground balls (And a lot of line drives) among them. It's a tradeoff; You obviously won't hit home runs with ground balls, but they also go for hits more often than flyballs do. If he was a pull hitter I'd be concerned more with the ground balls, but he hits them to all fields (33% left, 40% center, 33% right) and he hits them hard. A hit is a hit, no matter how it comes about. I love his approach, and I'd get several more players of that type if I could. For some time the mantra was to pound the bottom of the zone with a lot of sinkers. So hitters respond by altering their swings and approach to more golf-like swings to punish that and hit more flyballs and HRs. That swing is more vulnerable to high heat, so that's likely why you see the pitching up in the zone come back. Which I'd imagine suits Yelich more than it does many others. Then there's also what each person is comfortable with. Trying to instill a cookie-cutter approach, even if it's the optimal one, isn't going to work for everyone, and risks messing some hitters up. I'm sure there are some minor adjustments he can make; he's a talented hitter and an excellent athlete, but overall I'd say the approach should be that if it ain't broke (.310/.377/.500 suggests it ain't), don't fix it.

Fangraphs have him at #6. He's probably risen a bit in the rankings overall with a good 2018; 12+ K/9, 2.89 ERA. Pretty good return for a not great rental. That he might be one of the better rentals on the market says more about the market really.